Among the plethora of blue-chippers that the Kansas City Royals can call their own, Mike Moustakas was by most accounts the most anticipated Royal prospect to arrive on the major league stage (with due respect to Eric Hosmer). His 36 home runs and 124 RBI over 118 minor league games in 2010 had fantasy managers salivating for a call-up. After making mincemeat out of opposing minor league pitchers early this season, the Royals didn’t waste any additional time. He immediately singled in his first major league at-bat, hit a 391-foot home run off Joel Pineiro in his fourth at-bat, and it seemed the Moustakas era was off and running. But that’s pretty much the entirety of the good news.

What has gone wrong? Well, just about everything.

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Prior to the All-Star break, four RotoGraphs writers — Eno Sarris, Jeff Zimmerman, Howard Bender and me — engaged in the just-for-fun activity of drafting Pick Six-style teams, with the pool of players limited to those available in 10% or less in ESPN leagues (at the time of the draft). Given those parameters, the exercise proved to be challenging, but if you paid attention to our picks, you may have managed to snag a useful fantasy player or three off the waiver wire — no matter what kind of league you play in. Let’s update the scoring and hit on each owner’s best and worst selections. In other words, it’s time to see who’s in line for some bragging rights.

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At this point in the season, with just about seven weeks remaining, the chance that a newcomer to your roster will make a significant fantasy impact isn’t great, whether we’re talking about a recently-recalled minor leaguer getting another another shot in the bigs or one of the few elite prospects who has yet to get the call. But that doesn’t mean these players are entirely incapable of making useful fantasy contributions either.

Now that we’re down to the final push — when the fantasy playoffs are in sight, money is on the line and bragging rights are up for grabs — it’s the savvy owner who follows every turn of the the never-ceasing transaction wheel. Because continuing to play that slumping stud regularly (any day now, Carlos Beltran) or rostering that one-time starter who just lost his job (step aside, Travis Snider) or waiting for that injured star to return (hurry back, Rickie Weeks) or sitting on that pitcher who was traded to a tougher environment (hey, Jason Marquis is actually owned in some leagues) isn’t exactly doing much to help your cause now, is it? But maybe — just maybe — one of these guys can.

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I always love an under dog story and this season that love story has come in the form of Ryan Roberts. The thirty year-old has hit 5 more home runs this season than in his 5 previous MLB seasons combined. Even though a few older players finally are able to break out (see Jose Bautista), the data shows that Ryan probably won’t be one of the those players. My heart is still pulling for him though.

Ryan was drafted in 2003 by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 18th round. In 8 minor league seasons, he hit for a triple slash line of 0.274/0.373/0.448. Not shabby, but nothing to really write home about. During his minor league days he hit 96 home runs, or 1 every 33 PA. During that time frame, both of the Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers released him before he ended up signing with Arizona. With Arizona he was able to get a total of 422 PA in 2009 and 2010. In the 5 seasons he saw MLB playing time, he hit for a slash line of 0.251/0.333/0.389 in 453 PA.

In 2011, not that much has changed in Ryan, except he has decided to begin hitting with more power. His slash line this season is 0.259/0.355/0.447. His AVG and OBP are nearly the same, but his SLG has increase quite a bit. It is being fueled by 15 HRs, or 1 every 26 PA. This rate is better than he did in his minor league career. This jump in home runs can further be seen in his increase in HR/FB% from a previous value of 7.1% to 12.8% this season. He is actually hitting just about the same percentage of fly balls (42.5%) compared to his career value (43.6%).

The increase in home runs could actually be from hitting the ball further this season. The following is a graph of his average batted ball distances over the past 3 years on fly balls and home runs.

It can be seen that even during this season, he is not hitting the ball as far. The previous graph almost mirrors the following graph of his ISO over the last 3 years.

I don’t see any signs of his home run power being real.

The one addition trait for Ryan is that he has stolen 14 bases in 21 attempts this season. In his previous 5 seasons, he had a total of 7 SB in 10 attempts. Thirty year-olds are not really known for their speed break outs. I would be amazed if he continued to get the green light in the future.

As much as my heart wants the journey man/late bloomer to be the real deal, the information shows that this season is pointing to a career year for Ryan and not much more. His power burst this season is hallow and he is not going to enjoy the speed numbers going forward considering his age.

With the trade deadline firmly in the rear view mirror, it’s time to quantify the fantasy fallout from all the dealing and wheeling, goings and comings, thither and hither. Strike that, reverse it. In other words: Rankings!

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Time to re-visit those monthly rankings, again.  As always, the criteria used for these is as follows:

1.  Current performance level
2.  Expected performance for rest of season
3.  Value based on standard 5×5 categories (avg over OBP)

One note, despite the fact that it is late in the season, we are not accounting for keeper value right now.  We are staying within the parameters of this season alone.  Injured players remain on the list at the bottom so we can just see who was up there from start to finish.  That being said, here’s how the catching position looks right now…. Read the rest of this entry »

So you’ve probably heard Brett Lawrie has been called up. Of course, if this is the first you’re getting wind of this, I urge you to click on over to your league site, type in “Lawrie” in the Available Players search and add him, even in mixed leagues. Erik Hahmann will have more Lawrie analysis coming shortly, so don’t forget to check back here.

Also debuting later today? Trayvon Robinson, who was arguably the Dodgers top hitting prospect until he was basically given away to Seattle at the deadline for reasons I’m still trying to figure out. Here’s my take from last month on Robinson, who I think is only actionable in AL-only play. As I mentioned previously, his new power-over-speed approach this year won’t necessarily suit him well at his new team’s digs, which play a lot like his old team’s digs.

Until Lawrie and Robinson get their careers underway, though, you can read about three other guys who could be joining them in the bigs pretty soon.

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With lots of ground to cover in the wake of all the call-ups and promotions following the trade deadline, here’s a rapid-fire version of Mining the Minors.

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Ryan Ludwick was traded from the Padres to the Pirates on Sunday. Once you get past the surprise that the Buccos were buyers, there are another three levels of analysis to go, at least. The prognosis for the player is not incredibly predictable.

The easy answer is that Ludwick will enjoy moving out of PetCo. Since moving to the Padres at last year’s deadline, Ludwick has enjoyed the worst ISO of his career. The drop, about fifty points, could be attributable to the home park. ESPN’s park factors have San Diego as suppressing home runs by 11.5% over the past two years. On first blush, this easy analysis makes sense.

But there are more than a few problems with this idea.

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This week, it’s finally time to get to a pair of guys who were becoming impossible to ignore with their recent play. Even if one of them is forever blocked by the unsurpassable Chris Getz.

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