Tier 1
Dustin Pedroia
Ian Kinsler
Robinson Cano

Tier 2
Michael Young
Brandon Phillips
Rickie Weeks
Chase Utley

Tier 3 (Part 1)
Michael Cuddyer
Ben Zobrist
Dan Uggla

I see only two decent 2B keepers left, Kendrick and Johnson. I have a couple more articles planned on 2B left off my rankings. In my next article, I will look at some players that could be kept depending on the costs. The other article is on the flaws/questions that kept some of the other 2B off the list.

Howie Kendrick: Howie has generally been predictable with around 10 HRs, 15 SB and a 0.290 average. He produced at that level last season, except he hit 8 more HRs. His HR/FB% jumped from 7% in 2010 to 16.5% on 2011. In 2009 and 2010, his average home run and fly ball distance was 281 ft. In 2011 it jump 10 ft to 291 ft. The jump in HR numbers is real.

If there was one stat to watch going into 2012, it would be his K%. It jumped to a career high of more than 20% for 2011. He swung at and missed more pitches out of the strike zone than in the previous couple of years. He had problems with chasing pitches out of the strike zone early in his career and it looks like it may be returning.

Going into next season, I expect his HR projections to be a little low. Feel free to take a chance that he will continue on with his 2011 HR numbers.

Kelly Johnson – Kelly is a wild card in 2012 because of 2 unknowns surrounding him.

First, which Kelly Johnson will show up? The player that hit 26 HRs, stole 13 bases and had a 0.284 AVG in 2010. Or the player that hit only 0.222 while striking out 27% of the time in 2011.

Here is what I know:
1. He swings for fences and should have over 20 HRs given a reasonable amount of PAs.
2. He will steal 10+ bases.
3. He has no plate discipline right now. His K%, Swing% and Contact% has gotten significantly worse over the past 3 seasons. I would expect a low AVG.

His floor is 0.220-0.240 AVG, 15-20 HR and 10-12 SB for 2012. He has some upside if he can get the K’s under control and if his BABIP, 0.277 in 2011, is closer to his career average (0.311).

The second main factor affecting his value is what team he signs with and his role on that team. I would not set him as a keeper until this information is known. Is he headed to an offensively challenged team or back to Toronto? Will he be used in the 5th or 6th spot to drive in runs or hidden at the bottom of the lineup? Will it be a platoon situation? At least get an idea of how he will be used before setting him as a keeper.

With the core background work done on my hitter evaluations, I have decided to apply the process to second basemen for 2012. This ranking is based off of all player’s stats given the same number of PA. This a look to see which players are the most talented. You can follow the process with this spreadsheet.

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Prior to the All-Star break, four RotoGraphs writers — Eno Sarris, Jeff Zimmerman, Howard Bender and me — engaged in the just-for-fun activity of drafting Pick Six-style teams, with the pool of players limited to those available in 10% or less in ESPN leagues (at the time of the draft).

Given those parameters, the exercise proved to be challenging, but if you paid attention to our picks, you may have managed to snag a useful fantasy player or three off the waiver wire — no matter what kind of league you play in.

I took the temperature of our picks back in August, but now that the season is finished, let’s tally up the scoring to get the final results. And while we’re at it, we’ll rank the players based on their fantasy impact in 2012.

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Yesterday, I looked at the batted ball data for full time hitters. Today, I moved onto the hitters that had between 150 and 400 PA in 2011. There are more outliers in these groups because the hitter’s batted ball data did not have a chance to stabilize.

HR/FB%

No young players sneaking up onto this list. Just the 2 part time vets

LD%

Salvador Perez – Sal should see plenty of attention going into next season. A catcher that hits 0.300 will get noticed. He won’t continue to hit LD at a near 30% rate. Pitchers will find a weakness in his swing and the numbers will come down.

BABIP

Alejandro De Aza – He is getting mentioned as next year’s lead off hitter for the White Sox. The possible drop he may see in AVG could easily be made up with SB and Runs.

Hank Conger – He always had a BABIP over 0.300 in the minors. He can’t seem to get it over 0.250 in the majors. He needs to finally break through or he may have a long future as a journeyman catcher.

Brian Roberts – He was hitting bad before losing the season to a concussion. I like him as a buy low candidate in 2012. I would not have him as my first choice at 2B, but would take a late round flier on him.

Chone Figgins – I have no idea why the Mariners just haven’t cut the cord on him.

Anthony Rizzo – He was one of the players that came over in the Adrian Gonzalez trade. He is a long ball hitter with 20 or more HRs over the last 2 years in the minors. While with the MLB club, he hit only 1 HR. A low LD% (13.4%), high K% (30%) and fly balls that won’t leave the stadium (2.8% HR/FB) will lead to the 0.141 AVG. Hopefully he will have a better 2012. It almost can’t get any worse.

Tyler Colvin – Tyler looks like a home run hitter that can’t hit home run. After hitting 20 home runs with a HR/FB ratio of 19.4% in 2010, he only hit 6 HRs in 2011 with a 8.6% HR/FB ratio. I just don’t think he can hit good enough to make it in the majors.

Batters have different hitting styles that allow unique batted ball profiles. Most hitters aren’t able to maintain extreme batted ball values over a few seasons. Here is a look at some regular hitters that should expect their 2010 batted ball data to regress some in 2011.

For hitters (pitchers soon), I looked at BABIP, LD%, and HR/FB for those with a min of 400 PA. To set the baseline, I took the league leading value from the past 3 seasons (min 1200 PA). Then, I selected any player that beat that bench mark. There are not a ton of players that exceed the values because most hitters had a long enough season to get to their true batted ball talent level.

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A while back, I released the methods and background on Luck. With the 2011 season over, final values can be calculated. Today I am going to look at some players with over over 500 PA in 2011.

Note: I have gone ahead and made the results available from the last 3 years for hitters (> 50 PA) and pitchers (> 25)

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I really don’t care for the characterization that a player is “injury prone” but for the love of all things great and small, what did Kevin Youkilis do as a kid to be this delicate of an athlete? In the last three seasons, he has played in 136 games, 102 games, and will likely top out around 130 this season. Always incredibly valuable, both in real baseball and fantasy baseball, but even when he’s on the field, he’s typically playing through some kind of pain. This year, it has been a litany of bumps and bruises and presently he’s dealing with a hip issue that’s going to require off-season surgery, but he’s chosen to power through. And yet, it’s killing his production.

Since returning from the disabled list, he’s appeared in 10 games and notched six hits — four singles (one of them an infield hit) and two doubles with 30% K rate and two RBI. Prior to that, he managed a .206/.306/.442 line in August, still drawing walks at a healthy clip but doing very little for run production. He’s a tough guy to manage right now because he’s constantly a game-time decision and even when he does start, he might only get a few at-bats, being lifted for a pinch runner, or simply removed later in the game.

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This week’s installment covers a banished first baseman, one of baseball’s top prospects and yet another third base option in Denver.

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In the hours after yesterday’s Mining the Minors column was posted, the Red Sox promoted Ryan Lavarnway. The 24-year-old catcher got his due in this space three weeks ago for mashing baseballs all year long. At the time of that write-up, I didn’t see an easy fit for him in Boston until September roster expansion, but with Kevin Youkilis hitting the DL and David Ortiz battling a heel issue, Lavarnway got the call a couple weeks earlier than expected. Considering he’s known more for his stick (30 HRs this year) than his glove, he’s likely to see some time at designated hitter in addition to any opportunities behind the plate. As a savvy add in leagues that require a second starting catcher, Lavarnway is worth a look. My colleague Erik Hahmann will have more in just a bit, so check back here shortly.

Until then, though, here’s a trio players who might soon be up and contributing.

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The return of a preseason fantasy darling leads off this week’s pitcher-heavy column.

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