‘Tis the season of wheeling, dealing and spieling.

Baseball’s Hot Stove season gets all sorts of coverage. Among the general questions that can be applied to just about any scenario are: Which big name is rumored to be signing here? What trade chip would be a perfect match there? And does Buster Olney ever actually sleep?

While the transactions of note generally involve big leaguers signing with or being traded to new teams, one angle that often gets overshadowed is how those moves effect prospects. Sometimes, an inking or a deal by the parent club can be good news for minor leaguers, but many times, that’s not the case. What looked only yesterday to be a clear path to playing time for a prospect ready to contribute, instead has suddenly become a circuitous detour along a bumpy road with indecipherable signage, more than a few potholes and the ultimate destination — the majors — nowhere in sight.

With that in mind, buckle your seat belts as we take a look at a pair of young players whose 2012 stocks have been impacted head-on by some recent moves.

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On Friday, Chris Capuano signed a two-year deal with the Dodgers. After missing all of 2008 and 2009 with Tommy John surgery, he pitched decently in 2010 and 2011. If he can stay off the DL, he will be a nice buy-low option in deep leagues for 2012.

Chris started out his career with the Diamondbacks and the Brewers. He was able to put up decent K/9 numbers that ranged from 6.3 to 8.2. His walk rate was around 3.5 BB/9 and even dipped to 1.9 in 2006.

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Chase Headley was an exciting and very promising player in the minor leagues after being drafted in the 2nd round of the 2005 amateur draft. Over four minor league seasons, Headley hit .301/.399/.500. In 2008 at AAA Portland, Headley hit .305/.383/.556 with 13 HR in just 65 games, earning a permanent call to the majors.

Since then, the power hasn’t really developed as the Padres probably envisioned. He has a career line of .269/.343/.392 with just 36 home runs over more than 2000 plate appearances. In real-life baseball, Headley is valuable because of his low cost and decent glove but in fantasy baseball circles, you’re typically looking for more out of your corner infielders. But there may be some reason for optimism with Headley going forward.

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Yesterday, Jonathan Broxton signed a one year deal with the Royals. The most interesting part of the signing was that it came out of no where. The Royals were never mentioned as a possible suitor for the 27-year-old. The Royals bullpen was actually set for the 2012 season and, if anything, it already had a surplus of talent.

To put it nicely, Jonathan pitched badly in 2011. In the 14 games he threw before going on the DL for elbow surgery, he had a 1.11 K/BB. In the previous 5 seasons, it was between 2.6 and 4.0 K/BB. Also, he had a career high FIP of 5.63. A cause for the drop in production was a decline in his fastball speed as seen here:

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You might remember that I’d previously promised a more in-depth look at the Houston Astros’ minor league system, one that is overflowing with uber-talented, can’t-miss studs.* And I’m one to make good on my promises.
*Gotcha: It’s opposite day.

Having already listed the team’s Top 10 prospects (per Baseball America) and pointed out how the move to the AL in 2013 will impact NL-only keeper owners immediately, let’s check into the org’s prospects who could make their debuts in 2012 — and maybe even make an impact — and those who are the best bets for future value once the franchise is in the American League.

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Josh Willingham had his best major league season last year with the Oakland A’s. He is now a free agent this off season and has yet to find a new home. No matter where he ends up, he looks to be a great sleeper pick for 2012.

Before playing for the A’s last season, Josh spent time with both the Nationals and Marlins. The right-handed-hitter had several decent seasons with 20+ HRs and around a 0.270 AVG. In 2011, he had his best power season with 29 HRs and a career high 0.232 ISO.

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As Eric Seidman writes over in FanGraphs, Jim Thome heading to the Philadelphia Phillies on a one year, $1.25M contract is a good move in the real baseball world.  However, from a fantasy baseball perspective, it almost certainly closes the book on one of the game’s more prolific hitters at the turn of this century.  The 41 year old, lefty slugger may still have enough in the tank to make him a relevant power threat off the bench for the Phils, but for fantasy owners, the DH eligibility and the inconsistent at bats makes it very difficult to roster him.  He is waiver fodder, at best.

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Mike Leake burst onto the scene in 2010 as the latest player to make the leap directly into the majors after being drafted. He showed some great promise in his first two MLB seasons. Now, will this level of production continue into 2012?

The 23-year-old relies on mixing up his various pitches for success. He doesn’t have over-powering stuff especially for a right-handed pitcher. His average fastball speed isn’t over 90 MPH. Even though he doesn’t seem to be a strikeout machine, he does get a fairly decent amount of strikeouts with a 6.3 K/9 in 2011. Also, he has the shown great control by having a 2.0 BB/9 for 2011. To top it all off, his GB% of 48% is better than league average. His 2011 stats are similar to his 2010 stats, except his BB/9 improved from 2.9 to 2.0. Combining all these together, he is not great, but a serviceable starter.

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Just when you thought the cost to draft Bryce Harper couldn’t get any higher, the Nationals’ 19 year old phenom gives you yet another reason to allocate more of your draft day budget his way.  With a single in his first at-bat during Tuesday’s game between the Scottsdale Scorpions and the Peoria Javelinas, Harper extended his hit streak to 11 games in the highly competitive, prospect-laden Arizona Fall League.  In his second at-bat, he drilled a two-run shot to centerfield and posted his fourth multi-hit game in his last five and fifth in this 11 game run.  After a slow start in which he had just three hits in his first 27 at bats, Harper has made the necessary adjustments and is now hitting .290 with 5 HR and 20 RBI through 16 games.  He’s also kicked in three stolen bases, has a .357 OBP, and owns a .913 OPS right now.  There is no blue-light special to be had here.  If you want him, it’s time to get your fantasy checkbook ready.

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CC Sabathia (signed a 5 year deal with the Yankees) – Going into the offseason, CC’s destination was an unknown. By resigning with the Yankees, CC’s fantasy value is probably maximized.

First, he will be a Yankee for 5 more seasons, unless traded or released. The Yankees will always try to be competitive and will have a top notch offense and bullpen surrounding him. Compared to other similar pitchers, he will get plenty of run support and leads held to help him accumulate wins.

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