Last time, we looked at a group of prospects whose strong performances in the Arizona Fall League may have helped their cause for a chance to contribute in fantasy next season. Now that the AFL has come to an end, we’ll do just the opposite by pointing out some youngsters who didn’t exactly make their case* for getting the call in 2013.
*Because why not read too much into itty bitty sample sizes like 85 at-bats or 22 innings in the AFL?
Just a few days ago, the Bill James Handbook Projections were added to each of the player pages. Today, I will look at the top projected fantasy hitters going into the 2013 season.
The Major League Baseball season is over, but prospect season is just getting started.
Various sites, including FanGraphs, featuring Canada’s own Mr. Marc Hulet, have begun posting prospect rankings. And of course, the Arizona Fall League, the annual six-team collection of future stars-in-the-making, is entering its final week. Which makes this the perfect time for an update on a batch of young players whose AFL performances, small sample sizes be damned, just might help them make an impact in the bigs come 2013.
The pre-season prediction reviews continue this week and today I recap my bold hitter league leaders. Since these players were meant to be bold choices, I purposely did not pick any of the obvious guys or anyone I thought might not be considered very bold. Though I expected to hit a couple of my bold predictions, it would have been quite a surprise if I actually hit on any of these league leaguers. Let’s see how I did.
On Monday, I reviewed the hitters who I calculated to be the most overvalued at each position (sans catcher) in the pre-season. Today I will recap those who I figured to be the most undervalued at those positions. And surprise, we actually have a catcher this time. I will begrudgingly use the Yahoo rankings again and hopefully no position eligibility drama will ensue this time around. Just to repeat what I said in the comments of the overvalued article, I base my own valuations/rankings on 20 games played last year and 10 this year. So to keep things consistent, I have to apply the same rules on the Yahoo final season rankings to accurately compare.
For my next few posts, I am going to look back at some of my early season player evaluations, good or bad.
Austin Jackson: Breakout Candidate? 4/3
What I said then:
It is way too early to draw any real conclusions from Austin Jackson‘s start to the season. Most of his production has come from a completely unsustainable BABIP [.563]. Besides the high BABIP, he is also showing improved plate discipline. While the sample size is way too small right now, I would continue to track his K% [21%] and see if he has better control over the strike zone as the season goes on. Any chance for a breakout will be tied to lowering his strikeout numbers.
And now:
Everyone knew that the BABIP was unsustainable and it ended up (.371) almost identical to his career value (0.370). Jackson was able to maintain his lower K% over the course of the season and hit for .300 for the first time in the majors.
Justin Morneau: Is There Any Hope? 4/18
What I said then:
Justin Morneau has not had a good start to his season. His walk rate and power seem to be a concern. His walk rate is not out of place when taking into account his IBBs. His power loss is a concern though. He will just have to play more to see if the power loss continues.
And now:
Monrneau had two months of good power after I wrote the article, but he was not able to sustain the power spike and it dropped as the season went on.
ISO
First 2 months: .291
Last 4 months: .132
Average distance on his HR and Flyballs
First 2 months: 302 ft.
Last 4 months: 269 ft
His ISO was cut in half and his batted ball distance saw a loss of over 30 feet.
The weird thing is that he went on the DL in May and when he came back, he had his best month of the season.
Brennan Boesch’s Disappointing Start to the Season 4/23
What I said then:
Brennan Boesch has been a fantasy disappointment this season. …. I would look for some level of rebound, but he needs to hit the ball with more authority to have the season some people anticipated.
And now:
All Boesch had in him was a dead cat bounce. Horrible season.
Wainwright and Pujols: Rough Starts 4/23
What I said then:
Adam’s 2007 season looks to be a nice season to compare to 2012. The fastball velocities are identical. They are the seasons when he had his highest BABIPs (0.304 and 0.325). Adam had is worst season in terms of ERA (3.90) and WHIP (1.40) in 2007 until this season happened.
And now:
Season: ERA, WHIP, BABIP, Velocity
2007: 3.70, 1.40 ,.304, 89.4
2012: 3.94, 1.25, .315, 90.1
The two seasons ended being almost similar. At the time of the article, his FIP (6.52), xFIP (3.13) and SIERA (3.28) averaged out to 4.31 which is close to his final ERA of 3.94.
What I said then:
Albert has not been living up to his expectation so far this season. Looking over his stats, two values stick out as potential areas of concern, his walk rate and power.
And now:
BB%, NiIBB%
2008: 16%, 8%
2009: 16%, 7%
2010: 15%, 7%
2011: 9%, 6%
4/1/2012 to 4/23/2012: 7%, 3% (2 of his 5 BB have been IBB)
4/24/2012 to 10/3/2012: 8%, 4%
Year: ISO
2009: 0.331
2010: 0.284
2011: 0.242
4/1/2012 to 4/23/2012: .108
4/24/2012 to 10/3/2012: 0.245
Year: Flyball and HR batted ball distances
2010: 313 ft
2011: 303 ft
4/1/2012 to 4/23/2012: 275 ft
4/24/2012 to 10/3/2012: 281 ft
Albert was able to rebound a bit from the beginning of the season, but not even close to his previous seasons. I see an Alex Rodriguez fustrating decline happening with Pujols.
Espinosa and Roberts: 2B Ownership Decliners 4/30
What I said then:
After being one of my favorite stories of 2011, I have quickly soured on Roberts. He will have to hit more line drives and less pop ups for his value to go in the positive direction.
And now:
He was able to increase his LD% and decrease his IFFB%.
Triple slash and BABIP at time of article: .159/.243/.254, .188
Triple slash and BABIP after the article: .249/.307/.381, .283
He rebounded, but he will not flirt with a 20/20 season again.
What I said then:
I see no hope right now for Danny. He needs to make improvement in his plate discipline and/or power stroke to become an everyday player at 2B in deep leagues, not alone 10 to 14 team leagues.
And now:
Espinosa wasn’t able to drop his K% or regain his HR power. He has increase his LD% to help bring up his AVG to around 0.250 to make him a somewhat rosterable option.
Walker and Weeks: 2B Ownership Decliners 5/2
What I said then:
While he [Weeks] was a little lucky in 2011, he has been extremely unlucky so far this season. I would expect his AVG to increase as a few more batted balls begin to fall for hits.
And now:
His BABIP did go from 0.207, at the time of the article, to 0.270 over the rest of the season. It did not get to the .300+ BABIP predicted in the article, but it did improve.
What I said then:
Right now, Neil looks like a Plug-n-Play guy if owned in a shallow league. The high average won’t be a drag and he will get a few counting stats. In deeper leagues, the options available on the waiver wire are probably thin, so his owners may just have to ride out the power slump.
And now:
2012 Marcel prediction (closest projection in PA), 2012 stats:
PA: 578, 530
HR: 12, 14
Run: 68, 62
RBI: 72, 69
SB: 7, 7
AVG: .278, .280
Neil Walker ended up producing just like he was expected to produce. I bet he does the same thing next year.
I continue my quest at taking a look back at my pre-season predictions and claims by checking in on who I believed to be the most overvalued starting pitchers. Pitcher valuations are easier and there should be less controversy (well, none at all!) over position eligibility. I’ll use Yahoo again, but any obvious relief pitchers who happen to have SP eligibility on the site will not be included in the rankings.
I didn’t just make 20 bold predictions in the pre-season, I also made various other proclamations and forecasts that put my credibility on the line. One of those series of articles was a look at who I thought were the most overvalued and undervalued players at every position, including pitchers. Today is a review of the hitters I thought were overvalued. As a reminder, I looked at the top 10 hitters in ADP at each infield position and top 20 in the outfield. I tried looking at catcher, but realized that because most leagues draft only one, the most overvalued I found was only ranked one spot earlier than my rank. The most overvalued were those who I ranked furthest away from the hitter’s ADP at the time. I am going to use final season Yahoo ranks because that seems easiest, even though I am quite positive their valuation system probably is not all that accurate. Anyhow, Let’s see how I did.
A week ago I identified several American League starting pitchers whose SwStk% suggests an imminent strikeout rate surge. I then took a detour to look at both sides of the coin for National League starters, and now I’m back for the potential K/9 decliners in the AL. As a reminder, the league average for American League starting pitchers with a minimum of 120 innings pitched this year is a 7.0 K/9 and 8.5 SwStk%.
On Saturday, I checked in on the National League starting pitchers whose SwStk% suggests a strikeout rate surge may be coming next season. Today, I will identify the pitchers whose SwStk% suggests the opposite side of the coin, those whose strikeout rate may be in for a decline next year. As a reminder, the league average is a 7.3 K/9 and 8.6% SwStk%.
