Last week, I investigated fastball pitch values as provided by Pitch Info on our Pitch Value leaderboards. Here’s an interesting thing about pVal from our glossary that you probably already knew:

“If you have a great fastball, you’re going to usually have a great wFB, but if you also have a great slider, there’s a good chance it will help your wFB too. Pitch values are about the change in run expectancy against various pitches or the production against those pitches. You can’t leap from performance against a pitch to the quality of the pitch.”

From a fantasy perspective, it seems like a good play to find pitchers with good fastballs. But, what about pitchers with good fastballs and good secondary pitches? Think of Max Scherzer’s fastball/slider combo. Or, how about Trevor Rogers‘ fastball/changeup? That was good, right? In this article, I’ll take a look at pitchers with a nice one-two punch and try to determine if we can use this as a tool for the upcoming season.

I’ll be referring to a “plus” pitch as one with a pVal of one standard deviation or greater above the average. Of all pitchers who threw at least 100 innings in 2021, only four had a plus fastball and two plus secondary pitches. There were seven pitchers in this group who had a plus fastball and one other plus secondary. Here they are in table form:

The table above is full of great pitchers who threw a lot of innings last season. Does anyone surprise you? My guess would be no. Does this help you prepare for your draft? Probably not. But I don’t really know of anything that will tell us how good a pitcher’s curveball is expected to be next season. I suppose Eno Sarris’ Stuff+/Pitching+ is predictive in-season and becomes predictive quickly, but beyond that, how can we tell if Walker Buehler’s cutter will still be good? For now, I’m going to put the whole ‘is predictive’, ‘isn’t predictive’ talk to the side, and just focus on what happened last year. Let’s now look at the pitchers who showed a “plus” wFB in 2021 but did not post a “plus” secondary. This will allow us to imagine what they could be if they add a good secondary:

Anthony DeSclafani and Robbie Ray both just barely missed the wSL “plus” designation which is at 10 with the above player pool. Ranger Suarez also comes close to getting a wCH “plus” designation which is 4.2. However, all of these hurlers accumulated great value with the fastball and we can put our money on a few of them with some caveats. First, they have to repeat that fastball value, and second, they have to improve one of their secondary offerings. If you feel confident that that can happen, you may want to bump these pitchers up a few slots. Not that you had Robbie Ray pinned as a sleeper, but maybe you passed right over DeSclafani in your mock draft, and now, he’s got your attention.

Projecting pVals is probably as difficult as projecting CBA negotiation outcomes, but what happened in the past can inform us of what will happen in the future, even if it is not “sticky”. Regardless, this examination just gives you one more thing to think about when there’s a run on the catcher position in your draft, leaving you with too many great SP values to choose from.

Hey y’all! The Arizona Fall League rosters were finally released this week, and they feature a bunch of interesting players. Two of the players I discuss today will be playing in the league this fall. If you have a chance to go to Arizona this fall, please consider doing so. You will see young, upcoming stars playing against one another. The league begins on September 18th and concludes on October 26th. All games begin at 12:30 p.m. or 6:30 p.m and with the close proximity of the parks you can catch two games each day. The weather in Arizona this time of year is still warm but not overbearing and tickets are pretty cheap, especially with the type of talent on the field.

Today, I’m bringing you one slick-fielding shortstop whose bat is starting to play, one outfielder who has 80-grade speed, a right-handed control artist, and a southpaw with some strikeout upside.

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Hey y’all! Can you believe it is almost the end of August and the end of the minor league season? I know I am not ready for the season to end. With the minor leagues almost finished for the year, I thought it would be fun to check out some recent draftees you might want to draft in your First Year Player Drafts. It is never too early to get a hit start on draft prep! Today, I’m bringing you two outfielders, one with speed and the other with power, and two pitchers who are performing well in their first taste of pro ball. 

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Hey y’all. There are only about two more weeks left in the minor league season. There have been some interesting call-ups including Stash List alum Dylan Carlson and Sean Hjelle. This week I am bringing you some power-hitting middle infielder, a young outfielder destroying the DSL, an advanced college pitcher with an uptick in velocity, and a pitcher that should be knocking at the door of the bigs early next year.

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Hey y’all! With the trade deadline in the major leagues and minor league season ending soon, this is a great time to look at some interesting prospects to take a flyer on. This week, I’m bringing you an outfielder that should be manning the outfield for St. Louis this September, another Royal outfield who is stealing bases like crazy and two pitchers in organizations that know how to develop pitchers.

Randy Arozarena – OF (STL AAA) Age: 24 ETA: 2019

The Cardinals signed Randy Arozarena in 2016 after he defected from Cuba in 2014. He was assigned to High A and hit 0.275 with a 0.333 OBP and eight home runs. After 70 games, the Cardinals moved him up to AA, where he struggled a bit with the more difficult competition. He repeated the level in 2018 and after hitting 0.396 in 24 games, he made his way to AAA, where again, he struggled. In a surprising move, the Cardinals again assigned him to AA to start the season but promoted him to AAA at the beginning of June.

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Hey y’all! Today’s trade deadline was very exciting with a bunch of prospects changing teams. In today’s list, I’m bringing you four interesting prospects who you should look into picking up in your dynasty leagues.

There is one outfielder who is an OBP machine, another outfielder with all the power, another super speedy outfielder that might be an interesting speed option, and an infielder who should be in the big leagues next year.

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Hey y’all! Another week of baseball in the books. With July coming to a close, this week’s Stash List is filled with guys most likely on your waiver wire. It includes an outfielder in the Braves system that is not getting much love, a defensive minded catcher that has found his hitting stroke, and two pitchers that are performing well to little to no attention.

Trey Harris (ATL AA) OF Age: 23 ETA 2021

While Cristian Pache and Drew Waters are killing it in AA this year, there is another outfielder having a breakout season. Trey Harris put together an excellent college career at Missouri before the Braves selected him in the 32nd round of last years draft. The 5’10” outfielder is a great athlete and has a projectable body. After being drafted, the Braves assigned him to rookie ball. In 31 games, he struck out less than he walked, 9.8 K% to a 15.9 BB%. The Braves promoted him to A ball to finish out the season, where he had a 0.286 AVG. To start out this year, the Braves assigned him to A ball.

In his first 56 games, Harris hit 0.366 with a 0.437 OBP and smacked eight ball out of the park to go with his fourteen doubles. A+ ball was no match for Harris. He had a 0.303 AVG with 0.388 OBP and picked up another four home runs. He swiped three bags to call along with four in A ball. Going forward, I would not expect many steals from Harris. In Rookie ball, he was four for seven and then in A ball this year he was four for eight. It is great to see an advanced college bat like Harris killing the lower minors. He was recently promoted to AA and this will be a big test for Harris. In deeper leagues, I would keep him on my watch list.

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Hey y’all!  This week’s stash list should be a good one for all of you deep fantasy league players. I’ll be reviewing two pitchers with excellent K-BB percentages, that could help your ratios in a few years. I also bring to you a Houston hitter, that is not Kyle Tucker, unable to crack the Houston lineup. I also profile a very young San Francisco Giant killing low A and begging for a call-up.

I hope you got a chance to read my Top 100 prospects list. If you hadn’t, what are you waiting for?

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Hey y’all!  All of the full-season leagues have had All-Star games and are into the second half of their seasons.  I thought it would be a fun exercise to put together my top 100 prospects.  This list is mostly a fantasy list but also has a real-life winkle in it.  In fantasy, I value batters over pitchers.  I do factor defense but has more of a tie-breaker between players.  I have also removed prospects eligible players currently in the majors and who should remain on the big league club, like Yordan Alvarez and Keston Hiura.  Enjoy!  I’ll see you in the comments and on Twitter.

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Hey y’all!  This week’s Stash List should be a pretty good one.  I dug deep to find guys having great seasons that should be available on most waiver wires.  One guy is a forgotten guy in a recent trade with some power and speed.  One guy is destroying baseballs in A ball and then we have two southpaws putting up some crazy strikeout percentages.

Mason Martin (PIT A) 1B Age 20 ETA 2022

The Pirates picked up Mason Martin in the 17th round of the 2017 draft.  Martin has massive power. After being drafted, he was assigned to the Appy League.  In 127 at-bats, Martin swatted eleven dingers to go along with eight doubles. He picked up ten more in 2018 before being promoted to A ball.  So far this season, in 301 at-bats, he has 23 home runs to go along with 19 doubles. As with most power prospects, Martin has strikeout issues.  The lowest strikeout rate in his professional career was 24.7% and that was in his first taste of professional ball. Martin is a pretty patient hitter, and some might say passive, with double-digit walk rates.  Being a right-handed first baseman, Martin will need to continue to hit to make it to the majors. If you are willing to take the risk, Martin is a power guy to stash in your minor leagues.

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