The first inning of any spring training game should come with tempered expectations, but I always find myself like the kid in the bleachers whose parents thought it would be a good idea to just get the ice cream out of the way before the first pitch is thrown. With a chocolate-smeared face and wide eyes, I find myself taking in every pitch as if I’ll never see another game again. So, maybe that’s why my reaction to Clarke Schmidt’s first inning against the Phillies motivated me to write about the Yankee righty, or maybe, he’s a pitcher that should be on your radar in keeper and dynasty leagues. Let me preface this article with the mutual understanding that I am not a prospects guy, I’m just a kid watching from the bleachers taking in the sunshine with chocolate on my face, excited to see baseball again.

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We’ve got lots of guys to talk about, so let’s get right to it. Check out the start of last week’s article for an explanation of what we’re doing and how we do it. The pitchers are listed in descending order of likelihood that they’ll do what the stats we’re looking at suggest they’ll do. In other words, we list unlucky guys in ascending order of our pessimism about our optimism, and lucky guys in ascending order of our pessimism about our pessimism.

UNLUCKY STARTING PITCHERS

Kyle Freeland: Hesitant as we are to recommend, and for that matter to draft, Colorado pitchers, we are making an exception for Freeland, whose 2018 was unquestionably the best single season ever by a Rockies pitcher. The only thing that went wrong for him last year was that he was suddenly unable to get left-handed hitters out. Since he’s never had that problem before, we envision that he won’t have it again, at least not this season.

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Here’s my first run from New Year’s Eve and those of you subscribed to the podcast’s Patreon have had access to mine & Justin’s ever-evolving rankings as the winter wore on (and thank you all so much for the support!). Now it’s time to dive deeper into the SP pool. I won’t have a comment on every single pitcher listed, but please feel free to ask questions in the comments about anyone – even if they have a comment!

ACES

The best of the best.

I understand the narrative of Cole and the sticky stuff ban because he had a 4.12 ERA from that point forward, but it came with a 3.39 FIP and 32% K rate. Even with a couple September duds mixed in, his FIP was 2.95 in the second half. The skills remain truly elite.

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For the first time in my fantasy baseball career, I think I’m going to employ the pocket aces strategy. You can learn more about the strategy by reading Mike Carter’s synopsis on SP Streamer. The idea, however, is simple; take two starting pitchers with your first two picks. In my home league (10-team, 5×5, ESPN, Roto) I’ve been given the 10 spot to draft in a snake draft format. I’ve never employed this strategy because, like many others, the volatility of pitching scares me. The injury risk scares me. I usually want good hitters who steal bases early. But this year I’m going to try something new. Plus, I’m fairly certain I’ll be able to get Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom. Remember what I said about injury risk? I’m throwing caution to the wind. If something changes and my league drafts differently than I expect, my strategy may change. But, one look at the visual below makes me want to get two pitchers with my first two picks.

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In this condensed spring training, it’s become tougher to use what we’ve seen so far to make projection adjustments. So really, the only thing I care at least a little bit about right now, besides playing time outlook, is a pitcher’s velocity. Specifically, I care more about increased velocity than I do decreased velocity. While a decline in velocity could signal that something is wrong, it’s more likely the pitcher is just gradually working his way up to his normal velocity and will be fine by opening day. On the other hand, you can’t fake increased velocity and there’s no reason for a pitcher to decide one outing to just go all out for the fun of it. I’m a sucker for velocity jumps, as it very oftentimes coincides with a major breakout. So let’s discuss three velocity surgers so far. Remember, the sample size of pitches thrown is really small, so it’s certainly possible that these averages will come down by the time opening day comes around.

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The 2022 Pod Projections are now available and include over 550 player forecasts! As usual in my Pod Projection posts, I’ll dive into my projection methodology (detailed in Projecting X 2.0) by sharing my process on several hitters and pitchers.

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Yesterday, I compared my starting pitcher ERA Pod Projections to Steamer and discussed what was driving the gap. Let’s now review the pitchers I’m projecting for a worse ERA than Steamer. Remember in yesterday’s article I mentioned that my ERA projections are lower in aggregate, so the gaps are much smaller here. The important part is the ERA relative to the projection set, so these are larger differences than the absolute gaps would indicate.

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After comparing my Pod Projections to Steamer for bother home runs and stolen bases, let’s now flip over to starting pitchers. This comparison is far easier, as it’s a ratio stat and therefore won’t need to be converted to the same PA scale. So let’s find out which starting pitchers I am forecasting for an ERA that is most below what Steamer is forecasting.

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As we head into primetime drafting season, I will be rereleasing my positional ranks. Here are my current ranks for starting pitchers for 2022, my third of the offseason. I will post updates as things change with signings, injuries, or news in Major League Baseball. On the Sleeper and the Bust Patreon, you can see the rankings updated live.

You can review my ranks for other positions here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/category/rankings/

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What will we do without the zeros and ones of spring training? The underground, black market .csv file that comes from the person who knows the person who operates a Rapsodo in a mini-camp? How will we go on without knowing spin rates or the depth of clay infield impression drilled by various brands of signature spikes? I have an idea, let’s make it up.

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