Archive for Starting Pitchers

Michael Bowden had a fantastic season in 2008. He began the year at double-A Portland, where he posted a 101/24 K/BB ratio in 104 innings. He also allowed only five homers. He was then promoted to triple-A, where he put up a 29/5 ratio in 40 innings, while allowing five homers. On the surface, those are some excellent numbers.

But if you look beyond the surface, you’ll see that Bowden was even better than his overall numbers suggested. Bowden’s tRA* (which can be found over at Stat Corner) at double-A was 3.20. That’s the best tRA* of any starting pitcher in the minor leagues this year, at any level.

And yes, the Eastern League (in which Portland plays) is generally pretty favorable to pitchers. But still: Bowden’s tRA* was over 25% better than the next closest pitcher in the Eastern League. Bowden’s led the league in tRA* by a larger margin than any other pitcher in the minors led his league. In other words, relative to his own league, Bowden was by far the most dominant starting pitcher in the minor leagues.

Furthermore, Bowden showed no visible home/road splits, nor any lefty/righty splits. To be sure, Bowden’s raw stats were enhanced by a .247 BABIP and a low HR/FB; however, tRA* takes these things into account, by ignoring BABIP (instead focusing on what types of batted balls a pitcher gets), and regressing HR/FB. Therefore, while Bowden’s overall stats may represent a semblance of good luck (low BABIP, for example), his tRA* is luck-free.

Finally, Bowden is not a “trick” pitcher – his velocity and stuff backs up his stats, suggesting that he could find continued success at the big league level. In his one start at the major league level, his fastball averaged 92 MPH, and he showed four pitches: a fastball, curveball, slider and changeup.

Of course, there is no guarantee that Bowden will be able to have success in the future. However, using tRA* gives us a better understanding of the pitcher Bowden was in 2008, and therefore gives us a better insight into what kind of pitcher he can be in 2009 and beyond: namely, a top-tier starter.

The Red Sox already have an impressive array of young pitchers – Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester, Justin Masterson, and Clay Buchholz (who I still believe will be good) are all under 30 years old. Bowden can get lost in the shuffle, but he was the very best starting pitcher in all of the minor leagues in 2008, despite being just 21 years old.

Of course, the Red Sox’s tremendous amount of pitching talent means that Bowden may not make too many starts in the majors in 2009. The Red Sox will carefully monitor his innings total – he pitched 150 innings last year, after totaling 142 innings in 2007 and 112 innings in 2006. The Red Sox probably won’t want him to exceed 160-170 innings in 2009.

However, there may be room for Bowden at the major league level: Beckett, Matsuzaka, Lester, and Wakefield are all ahead of him, but Buchholz may have fallen behind him, Masterson may be a full-time reliever and Wakefield is very risky. Bowden has demonstrated that he’s ready to pitch – and be successful – at the major league level, and if given the chance to make some starts in 2009, he could be quite a steal for your fantasy team.

Tampa Bay Rays southpaw Scott Kazmir is exceptionally talented yet eminently frustrating. Still just 25 years of age heading into the 2009 season, Kazmir has a long history of missing bats (career 9.75 K/9) and walking the yard (4.13 BB/9). Those trends continued in 2008 (9.81 BB/9, 4.14 BB/9), but they way in which the former Mets farmhand went about getting those familiar results continued to change rather drastically. The 6 foot, 190 pounder has posted very similar ERA’s over the past three seasons (3.24, 3.48 and 3.49, respectively), but his pitching style and underlying skills have morphed from 2006 to the present day. It may sound strange to say, but the current version of Scott Kazmir scarcely resembles the guy who took the hill at the Trop a few years back.

By 2006, Kazmir had established himself as a lefty with plus velocity, a wipeout slider and a decent changeup. He used his 91.9 MPH heater 56.2% of the time, relying heavily on his nasty 84 MPH breaking pitch (28.6%) while also utilizing an 82 MPH changeup 15.2% of the time. Punching out 10.14 batters per nine innings and issuing 3.24 BB/9, Kazmir posted a sparkling 3.36 Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA).

The shift in Kazmir’s pitch selection began in 2007, as he began to rely more heavily upon his fastball. Kazmir threw his 92.1 MPH cheese to batters 69.6% of the time, a hefty increase of 13.4% from the previous year. While he threw his 81.4 MPH change a little bit less (11.6%), it was Kazmir’s 83.7 MPH slider that took a considerable drop in usage (18.8%). Kazmir’s FIP ERA remained strong (3.45), as a small spike in K’s (10.41 per nine innings) offset an increase in walks (3.88 BB/9).

Kazmir took his fastball preference to even greater extremes this past season, as he threw his 91.7 MPH heater a whopping 75.3% of the time. Among starters tossing at least 150 innings, only perennial disappointment Daniel Cabrera and sinkerballers Aaron Cook and Mike Pelfrey utilized the fastball more often. Kazmir essentially scrapped his once-signature slider, throwing the 82 MPH pitch just 9.6%. Instead, he used a 78.8 MPH changeup as his preferred secondary offering, pulling the string on 15.1% of his total pitches.

By looking at Josh Kalk’s pitch F/X blog, it becomes apparent that Kazmir didn’t feel as comfortable using his slider in strikeout situations and in full counts:

0-and-2 pitch usage

2007: Fastball (58.7%), Slider (39.7%), Changeup (1.6%)

2008: Fastball (72.8%), Slider (24.3%) , Changeup (2.9%)

3-and-2 pitch usage

2007: Fastball (63%), Slider (26.1%) , Changeup (10.9%)

2008: Fastball (91.5%), Slider (2.1%) , Changeup (6.4%)

Kazmir preferred his fastball in situations where he got well ahead of the batter, and when he absolutely needed to throw a strike, he basically shunned his slider.

In 2008, Kazmir’s FIP ERA ascended to 4.37. The primary culprit was a big spike in home runs allowed. After posting HR/9 marks of 0.93 and 0.78 in 2006 and 2007 respectively, Kazmir tossed way too many pitches that ended up as souvenirs in ’08 (1.36 HR/9). One might be inclined to write the increased home runs off, believing it was just an anomaly. However, Kazmir was not particularly unlucky on flyballs, as his HR/FB ratio of 12% was just slightly above the norm. The cause of the homer increase can be tied to his becoming one of the most extreme flyball pitchers in the majors. After compiling groundball rates of 42% and 43.1% in 2006 and 2007 respectively, Kazmir put the ball in the dirt just 30.8% of the time in 2008. That was the lowest rate of any starter pitching at least 150 frames.

You wouldn’t really know it by taking a quick glance at his stat sheet, but Kazmir has changed his game plan quite a bit over the past few seasons. What sort of effect will these changes have on him going forward? Let’s deal with them one by one…

Increased fastball usage, far fewer sliders

Kazmir threw his heater nearly 20% more in 2008 than he did in 2006, rarely utilizing his once bread-and-butter slider. It’s difficult to say what sort of role Kazmir’s elbow injury played in his pitch usage. Was he rarely breaking out the slider because it put increased pressure on his tender arm? If so, will he return to throwing it more often in 2009, or will he continue to favor the less stressful changeup? Also, what sort of effect did Kazmir’s fastball love have on his walk rate? Was his pitch selection the cause of his even more pronounced control issues, or was that the product of his elbow troubles?

Using the changeup as his favored offspeed pitch

If Kazmir prefers the changeup, that’s not necessarily a bad thing. The speed differential between his fastball and change has increased over the past few seasons (9.9 MPH in ’06, 10.7 MPH in ’07, and 12.9 MPH in ’08), and the pitch features excellent vertical drop:

Fastball : 5.92 X, 10.48 Z
Changeup: 7.46 X, 4.1 Z

(X is horizontal movement. A negative X number means that the pitch is moving in toward a right-handed hitter, while a positive X means that the pitch is moving away from a righty hitter (in to a lefty). Z is vertical movement- the lower the Z number, the more the pitch “drops” in the strike zone.)

Kazmir’s change shows both fading and tumbling action, dropping over 6 inches further than his fastball. Combine that movement with a solid speed differential, and Kazmir’s change has the makings of a knockout pitch.

Flyball tendencies

It was one season of data, but Kazmir became the most extreme flyball pitcher in the big leagues. Should those tendencies stick, he’s going to surrender plenty of longballs again in 2009. With starts coming against forces such as Fenway Park’s Green Monster (doubles park factor from 2006-2008: 143), The Rogers Centre (HR park factor: 113) and Camden Yards (HR park factor: 123), putting the ball in the air so often is probably not advisable.

Kazmir posted another shiny ERA in 2008, but his controllable skills took a bit of a backslide as he battled his control and gave up home runs aplenty. A .275 BABIP and an extraordinarily high 82.5 LOB% masked his problems, but Kazmir could disappoint if he takes to the air with such frequency again in 2009.

Who would have thought, entering the 2008 season, that Armando Galarraga would end up being Detroit’s most consistent starting pitcher? With Justin Verlander stranding an unusually low percentage of runners, Jeremy Bonderman (whose career divide between his peripherals and ERA would make Javier Vazquez blush) succumbing to injury, Kenny Rogers (a career-worst 5.22 FIP ERA) looking cooked and Nate Robertson suffering from horrible luck on balls put in play (.343 BABIP), Galarraga was the only starter to post a sub-four ERA for a group that authored a combined 5.03 ERA.

Galarraga had previously been part of a blockbuster deal, as the Washington Nationals shipped him as well outfielders Terrmel Sledge and Brad Wilkerson to the Rangers for Alfonso Soriano in December of 2005. Galarraga’s trade from Texas to the Tigers, however, was much less splashy. Designated for assignment by the pitching-starved Rangers, Galarraga moved to the Motor City for outfielder Michael Hernandez, who went undrafted out of Oklahoma State in 2006. Galarraga was seen as possessing enough talent to help fill in at the back of a big league pitching staff, but he had missed nearly all of the 2002 and 2003 seasons following Tommy John surgery, as well as 2006 while battling a shoulder injury.

While Hernandez failed to impress at High-A and moved on to the Mets organization, Galarraga posted a 3.73 ERA for the Tigers in 28 starts. His 13-7 record was a breath of fresh air for a club that rarely received stellar starting performances. Regardless of what occurs from this point forward, the Tigers received one year of above-average pitching essentially for free. That’s a great deal no matter how you cut it. Unfortunately, there are plenty of reasons to expect Galarraga’s good fortune to come to an end in 2009.

The 6-4, 180 pounder compiled a superficially impressive ERA, but there was a Grand Canyon-sized gap between his actual ERA and his Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA). Galarraga’s FIP ERA was a much less impressive 4.88, over 1.1 runs higher than his actual mark. That dichotomy between his ERA and FIP ERA (-1.15 runs) was the largest in the majors, surpassing Daisuke Matsuzaka (-1.13) and Johan Santana (-0.97). Galarraga didn’t miss that many bats, striking out 6.35 batters per nine innings, and his control was just fair (3.07 BB/9). He was somewhat unlucky in the home run department (his HR/FB% was 13), but even using XFIP from The Hardball Times to adjust for that, his ERA came in at a less shiny 4.59. So, Galarraga struck out just slightly more than the league average, showed ordinary control and gave up his fair share of longballs. How did he manage to outperform his controllable skills by such a large margin?

The answer lies in Galarraga’s BABIP and Strand Rate (LOB%). The soon-to-be 27 year-old posted a minuscule .247 BABIP. Among starting pitchers, only David Bush and Tim Wakefield received more auspicious bounces on balls put in play. Galarraga also stranded runners at a 75.6% clip, above the 70-72% average in that category. When more of those balls put in play fail to reach gloves and his strand rate presumably ticks down, Galarraga’s ERA is going to climb.

As a free-talent acquisition, Armando Galarraga was an excellent value for the Tigers. However, his solid 2008 campaign looks more like a mirage than a harbinger of things to come. Let someone else pick Galarraga and end up disappointed with the results.

The Washington Nationals’ pitching staff is essentially in disarray. While bailouts have become commonplace in the nation’s capital, the Nats’ rotation might need government assistance more than all other corporate entities combined. Washington’s starting corps could be considered a toxic asset; when a rapidly descending Scott Olsen may very well be your club’s best hope at cultivating an ace, something is seriously wrong.

While Washington’s compilation of semi-prospects and retreads posted a combined 4.97 starters’ ERA in 2008, there was one home-grown bright spot. John Lannan, a little-known 11th round selection out of Siena College in 2005, pieced together a solid rookie season. Lannan went from “that guy who broke Chase Utley’s hand” to one of the more effective young starters in the NL, posting a 3.91 ERA in 182 innings of work.

Never known for his overpowering stuff, Lannan mixed in five different offerings to opposing batters. He supplemented his soft 87.5 MPH fastball (thrown 60.1% of the time) with a 80.3 MPH slider (15.5%), 74.5 MPH curveball (12.4%), 80.9 MPH changeup (10.6%) and the occasional 86.5 MPH cutter (1.3%).

So, Lannan is a five-pitch lefty with a good rookie season under his belt. He should only get better, right? Well, not so fast.

Lannan did a very good job of keeping the ball on the ground (54.2 GB%), but his peripheral stats (5.79 K/9, 3.56 BB/9) do not match up with his ERA. On top of a mild K rate and ordinary control, Lannan benefitted from a .273 BABIP (11th-lowest among qualified starters).

He experienced unusually poor luck on flyballs (his HR/FB% of 15.2 was 3-4% higher than average), but we can use Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP) from The Hardball Times to better gauge Lannan’s abilities. XFIP uses strikeouts, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate (rooting out Lannan’s poor luck on flyballs) to give us a more accurate account of a pitcher’s controllable skills. Lannan’s XFIP was 4.47. That’s actually slightly below the NL average ERA of 4.43 for starting pitchers.

One might look at John Lannan and see a 24 year-old southpaw who just posted a sub-4 ERA season, and therefore might expect better things in 2009. However, Lannan’s finesse style and just average ability to paint the corners (his career minor league BB/9 is 3.51) portend to a good deal of regression in 2009. Lannan could use his eclectic repertoire and groundball tendencies to post an ERA somewhere in the mid-four’s, but he’s more mid-rotation material than future ace.

As you’ll certainly notice if you read my articles on this site, I have an affinity for mediocre pitchers. Or rather, I have an interest for non-ace pitchers who aren’t amazing, but are solid.

Unless you’re playing in a very shallow league, non-ace pitchers can make or break your season. Everyone can identify the CC Sabathias and Josh Becketts of the world. However, pitching is difficult to assess and predict; there are many pitchers who come “out of nowhere” to have respectable seasons. If you’re able to identify these players, you can get some excellent values on your pitchers, and focus your earlier-round picks on safer-bet offensive players.

Furthermore, even pitching staffs with aces at the front need solid pitchers behind them. Often times, you can get a pitcher in 15th round who pitches as well as someone drafted in the 8th round – you just need to know where to look.

And for those of you play in truly deep leagues, and/or AL- or NL-only leagues, you often find yourself stuck with awful pitchers because you simply need to fill those spots. Sometimes the best pitching staffs aren’t the ones that are filled with aces, but rather are the staffs that don’t have any pitchers like Carlos Silva bringing down the rest of the staff.

With that in mind, let’s discuss Mitch Talbot.

Who?

Mitch Talbot, a 25-year-old left-hander in the Rays organization, may have had one of the least noticed excellent seasons by any minor league pitcher this year. Talbot is understandably overshadowed in an organization with a ridiculous amount of pitching talent. That said, he also had a very good season.

In 161 innings in triple-A, Talbot posted a 3.86 ERA – solid, but not awe-inspiring. Of course, we know that ERA is far from the best predictor for a pitcher’s future success – especially for minor leaguers. Talbot also tallied 141 strikeouts and allowed only 35 walks – an excellent ratio. Furthermore, Talbot induced twice as many ground balls as fly balls, thus leading to him allowing only nine homers. In fact, in 684 career innings in the minors, Talbot has allowed a mere 44 homers. That’s excellent.

Furthermore, Talbot’s 3.86 ERA is misleading due to the fact that he had a very high BABIP this season – .326, to be precise. That’s a lot higher than we’d expect, even allowing for the fact that as a ground-ball pitcher, Talbot will allow a few more hits than a fly-ball pitcher (of course, these hits are likely to only be singles).

While Talbot is excellent against left-handed batters, he’s not bad against righties either, suggesting that he won’t necessarily need to be moved to the bullpen. Furthermore, he improved throughout the season – in the last two months, he struck out 64 batters in 64 innings. Granted, this is a small sample size, so we can’t read too much into it, but it’s very possible that Talbot was continually improving throughout the season.

Of course, Talbot’s biggest problem at the moment is that he plays for the Tampa Bay Rays. He’s no higher than seventh on their starting pitching depth chart (and is in danger of being passed by Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, and Jeremy Hellickson). However, odds are pretty good that the Rays will deal Edwin Jackson (or perhaps move him to the bullpen) to allow David Price into the rotation. Furthermore, starting pitchers are fragile – should any Rays pitcher get hurt (I’m looking at you, Scott), Talbot may be called up to fill in.

Finally, there is a very real chance that Talbot will be dealt within the next year, as the Rays look to shore up right field, designated hitter, and their bullpen.

Keep your eye very closely on Mitch Talbot. He’s ready to contribute to a major league team, and if he finds himself in a position to start every fifth day for any team, you may have yourself a late-round steal or excellent waiver wire pickup.

Occasionally, a pitcher comes along who is so good, so utterly dominant, that people stop what they’re doing to watch his starts. The day that the pitcher takes the hill becomes must-see TV for every baseball fan, an event. Twins lefty Francisco Liriano was one of those guys a few years back. Pilfered from the San Francisco Giants organization in 2003 (along with Joe Nathan and Boof Bonser) in exchange for A.J. Pierzynski, Liriano annihilated the American League in 2006. He punched out 10.71 batters per nine innings, while also displaying command beyond his 22 years (2.38 BB/9). In 121 innings, Liriano posted a sparkling 2.55 Fielding Independent ERA and a 2.59 WPA/LI (WPA/LI is a cumulative stat, but he still managed to rank 12th among all starters in that category).

Liriano was cartoonishly difficult to hit in ’06. While he possessed a high-octane 94.7 MPH fastball, Liriano threw the pitch just 43.6% of the time. Instead, he relied heavily upon a sinister 87.7 MPH slider (37.6%) while also showcasing a promising 83.5 MPH changeup (18.7%). Opposing batters made contact with the Dominican Republic native just 65.4% of the time, by far the lowest rate among pitchers tossing at least 120 innings. Cole Hamels, at 72.3%, was a very distant second, and Liriano’s then-teammate Johan Santana trailed him by nearly 10 percent (74.8%).

But, just as quickly as Liriano burst on to the scene, he was gone. He felt some discomfort in an August 7th start versus Detroit, and was subsequently placed on the DL with a sore left elbow and forearm. Liriano would return in September, but he lasted just two innings against Oakland before he “heard something pop” while pumping a fastball to Bobby Kielty. The 6-2, 225 pounder soon went under the knife for Tommy John surgery, missing the entire 2007 season.

Liriano got off to a rocky start upon returning in 2008 (13 runs allowed and a 7/13 K/BB ratio in his first three outings) and was subsequently shipped to the minors, but everything from that point on was a step in the right direction. The 25 year-old was often dominant at AAA Rochester, with 8.62 K/9 and 2.36 BB/9 in 118 innings pitched. Whether due to service-time issues, reservations about sticking Liriano into a playoff race and piling up innings in his first post-surgical season, or just plain masochism, the Twins kept punching bag Livan Hernandez in the rotation until early August while Liriano mowed down International League hitters. Liriano finally re-joined the Twins on August 3rd, and while his numbers weren’t in the same stratosphere as his work in 2006, he was still pretty darned good.

In 76 frames with Minnesota, Liriano struck out 7.93 batters per nine innings, while showing some wildness typically seen from TJ patients in their first season back (3.79 BB/9). Using Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP) from The Hardball Times, which calculates ERA based on strikeouts, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, we find that Liriano posted a 4.40 XFIP. That’s not dominant, but keep in mind that we’re dealing with a pretty small sample, one somewhat skewed by Liriano’s shaky three-start beginning. From his recall in August to the end of the season, the southpaw posted a 60/19 K/BB ratio in 65.2 IP. While once again cautioning that 76 innings is a small amount of data to be working with, it is worth noting that pre-Tommy John Liriano was a groundball-centric pitcher (55.3 GB% in ’06), while post-TJ Liriano put the ball in the air quite a bit at Rochester (42 GB%) and with the Twins (41.6 GB%).

In terms of stuff, Liriano did not feature the mid-90’s gas that we had become accustomed to. His average fastball velocity was 90.9 MPH, down nearly 4 MPH from 2006. His slider was also thrown softer, coming in at 83.7 MPH (down 4 MPH). Liriano’s changeup decreased in speed, from 83.5 MPH to 82 MPH, a good thing considering it helped him retain a speed differential between the fastball and the change. Liriano’s pitch selection was also changed, as he relied more on his fastball (53.6%) at the expense of his slider (26.4%). His usage of the changeup increased slightly, to 20%. Opponents still found Liriano to be plenty hard to hit, as his 75.5 Contact% ranked 21st in the majors among those tossing at least 70 innings.

Unfortunately, there is no pitch F/X data for Liriano’s 2006 season, as the technology was not implemented until 2007. However, we can use Josh Kalk’s pitch F/X blog to get a feel for how much life Liriano had on his pitches this past season:

(X is horizontal movement. A negative X number means that the pitch is moving in toward a right-handed hitter, while a positive X means that the pitch is moving away from a righty hitter (in to a lefty). Z is vertical movement- the lower the Z number, the more the pitch “drops” in the strike zone.)

Fastball: 6.53 X, 9.88 Z
Slider: -1.51 X, 1.34 Z
Changeup: 9.08 X, 6.4 Z
2-Seam FB: 9.84 X, 7.1 Z

(I know what the data classifies the last group of pitches as splitters, but given the 90+ MPH velocity and the extra tailing action, they would appear to be 2-seam fastballs).

Liriano might not have possessed his vintage velocity in his first season back from reconstructive surgery, but his offerings still had plenty of hop. His 4-seam fastball showcased a good deal of vertical movement (9.88 Z, above the 9.78 average) while also displaying over six and a half inches of tailing action in on lefthanders. His two-seamer showed a ton of running action in on the hands of lefties as well. Liriano’s trademark slider was breaking away from southpaws (-1.7 X), and his changeup looks like it could be an excellent pitch, with plenty of fading and dropping action away from right-handed batters. It’s also important to keep in mind that Liriano’s stuff still could rebound a little bit further with an offseason of rest and training; what we saw at the end of the 2008 season is not necessarily representative of what Liriano will throw in the years to come.

The pitcher who burst onto the scene in 2006 might never return, but the current version of Francisco Liriano is extremely talented in his own right. If his control takes a step forward, as is the case with many TJ pitchers in their second year back, look out. Sill just 25 and possessing a full arsenal of pitches, Liriano should re-establish himself as one of the better starting pitchers in the AL in 2009.

Think of the 25 best starting pitchers from 2008.

Undoubtedly, you’ve thought of such mainstays as CC Sabathia, Roy Halladay, Johan Santana and Brandon Webb. You’ve probably thought of the guys who came out of nowhere to have fantastic seasons, like Cliff Lee and Ryan Dempster. You’ve thought of the youngsters who burst onto the scene, like Tim Lincecum, Edinson Volquez and Chad Billingsley.

But did you think of Andy Sonnanstine?

Sonnanstine had the 22nd best tRA of any starting pitcher this year. He also posted a 4.38 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and racked up 124 strikeouts (against only 37 walks) in 193 innings. Sonnanstine’s lack of strikeouts prevent him from becoming a fantasy ace, but he’s still an excellent pitcher whose ERA should have been even lower this year.

Sonnanstine suffered from a .312 BABIP this year, despite playing in front of one of the league’s best defenses. The Rays defense should be above-average once again next year, and Sonnanstine’s BABIP is likely to regress to the .270-.290 range, which should help to lower both his WHIP and his ERA.

In fact, Sonnanstine posted a 3.91 FIP this year – over 40 points lower than his actual ERA. Part of this difference can be blamed on Sonnanstine’s poor luck on balls in play; however, Sonnanstine also suffered from a very low left-on-base percentage.

Sonnanstine managed to strand only 66.3% of the runners who reached base against him – the fifth-worst mark of any qualifying starting pitcher. Not surprisingly, Sonnanstine pitched poorly with runners on base, allowing a .286/.314/.459 line with men on base, as compared to a .271/.310/.437 line with no one on base. This is not a huge difference; however, unfortunately for Sonnanstine, he allowed hits in the worst situations: with the bases loaded, batters were 3-for-6 with two doubles against him; with men at second and third, batters were 4-for-6 with a homer; and batters hit .345 against him when a runner was at third with less than two outs.

Even though he gave up more hits in “clutch” situations than regular situations, Sonnanstine struck out the same percentage of batters he faced with runners aboard as when no one was on base. In other words, Sonnanstine’s stuff doesn’t appear to have declined with men on base. Rather, he simply gave up a disproportionate amount of hits in the worst situations.

If you believe that this is evidence of Sonnanstine not having the mental fortitude to pitch well in important situations, I will point out that Sonnanstine allowed 0 earned runs in 13 innings in consecutive starts against the Red Sox in September, and he posted a 4.24 ERA in three postseason starts. He’s clearly unfazed by pressure situations. Therefore, there’s no reason to think that Sonnanstine’s ability to pitch with men on base is any different than in other situations. Rather, Sonnanstine’s poor showing with runners on base is likely due to random fluctuation.

Sonnanstine pitched quite well this year and experienced a rather large amount of bad luck. In fact, the 41 point difference between Sonnanstine’s ERA and FIP was the 12th largest discrepancy of qualifying starting pitchers. If that luck regresses next season, he could lower his ERA and WHIP even further, while continuing to rack up wins thanks to the strong team around him. While Sonnanstine will never strike out a ton of hitters, he will make up for this by contributing in three other categories, and is likely to be undervalued on draft day.

Another season, another sub-3.00 ERA for Johan Santana. Business as usual, right? Wrong. Fantasy players should be very wary of Johan in 2009.

Johan’s 2.53 ERA in 2008 was the lowest of his illustrious career. However, his 1.15 WHIP was his highest since 2002, and although he struck out 206 batters, his strikeout rate was the lowest it had been since 2001. Furthermore, his walk rate was the highest it had been since 2003. So how the heck did Johan post the best ERA of his career?

It certainly wasn’t his BABIP. In fact, Johan’s .287 BABIP from 2008 was exactly in line with his career BABIP of .286. However, he managed to strand over 82% of the runners who reached base. In fact, Johan’s 82.6% LOB% was the highest LOB% of any starting pitcher in baseball. Johan has always had a high LOB% – remember, good pitchers tend to leave a lot of runners on base simply because they have a high chance of retiring every batter they face – however, his LOB% in 2008 was the highest of his career. Over the last three years, his LOB% has been 76.3%, 77.7% and 78.3%, respectively.

What’s perhaps more worrisome is that Johan’s fundamental statistics appear to be declining across the board. Let’s start with his velocity. Back in 2005, Johan’s fastball averaged 92.4 MPH; in 2006 he managed 93.1 MPH. However, last year his fastball velocity fell to 91.7 MPH, and this year it fell to 91.2 MPH. Additionally – perhaps as compensation? – his changeup velocity fell to 80.0 MPH, from 81.9 MPH last year and 81.8 MPH in 2006.

Of course, as guys like Trevor Hoffman can attest to, a pitcher’s fastball and changeup velocities themselves are far less important than the difference between his fastball and his changeup. Therefore, the simple dip in velocity isn’t particularly concerning in and of itself. However, Santana’s control, as well as his ability to induce swings-and-misses, both appear to be in decline as well.

Johan has thrown a higher percentage of balls every year for four consecutive years, starting in 2005. That year, 30.0% of his pitches were out of the strike zone, in 2006 he missed with 31.5% of his pitches, in 2007 32.1% of his pitches were balls, this year that number was 33.2%. Of even more concern is his drop in swinging strikes. From 2004 through 2007, Santana induced swings and misses on between 13.2% and 14.9% of his pitches. However, in 2008, batters swung and missed at only 11.3% of his pitches. 11.3% is still a very good number, but it is a distinct drop from his previous levels.

Taken individually, each of these factors is not terribly concerning, and could suggest a one-year fluke rather than diminished skills. However, taken as a set, these signs are concerning. Don’t get me wrong: Johan is still a very good pitcher; however, his 2.53 ERA in 2008 didn’t reflect his actual pitching.

In 2008, Johan’s FIP was 3.51. His regressed tRA, or tRA*, was 4.16, which is the equivalent of a 3.76 ERA. Johan’s true ERA level in 2008 was probably somewhere between these numbers, and unless he shows that the things I’ve listed above were one-year flukes, Johan could see his ERA rise a full run – or more – in 2009. That would still make him a good pitcher, especially considering he still should strike out approximately eight batters per nine innings, but it also means that Johan is almost certainly going to be drastically overvalued on draft day. Let someone else pay top dollar for a guy who’s no longer worth the money.

Jorge Campillo made his Atlanta Braves debut in 2008- a mere 12 seasons after the team originally signed him out of Mexico.

The Tijuana native has weathered one of the more circuitous routes of any pitcher in professional baseball. The Braves signed Campillo all the way back in February of 1996 and loaned him to the Mexican League later that year. Unimpressed with Campillo’s finesse style, Atlanta released the 6-1, 225 pounder that following January.

Campillo would spend all of the 1997-2004 seasons in the Mexican League, hoping to latch on with another major league club. The Seattle Mariners finally came calling prior to the 2005 season, inking Campillo to a minor league deal. He held his own at AAA Tacoma and got a cup of coffee with the M’s toward the end of the season. However, it wouldn’t be long before Campillo’s perseverance was tested yet again, as he had to go under the knife for Tommy John Surgery shortly thereafter, missing the majority of the 2006 season.

Control is considered to be the last aspect of a pitcher’s game to resurface following Tommy John, but Campillo continued to paint the corners upon returning to Tacoma in 2007. In 149.1 innings pitched, the embattled right-hander posted a 3.72 Fielding Independent ERA, issuing a tidy 2.35 BB/9 and striking out a mild 5.97 batters per nine innings. Despite his solid work and the dearth of quality starting options in Seattle (this was, after all, a team that gave a combined 47 starts to Jeff Weaver and Horacio Ramirez), Campillo tossed just 13.1 frames for the M’s.

Campillo’s adventurous career came full-circle before the 2008 season, as he latched on with the Braves once again. The 29 year-old was certainly not in the team’s immediate plans to start the year, but a rash of injuries in the starting rotation afforded Campillo the opportunity to get his first extended trial in the majors. In 158.2 innings (including 25 starts), Campillo compiled a 3.91 ERA, with 6.07 K/9 and a sharp 2.16 BB/9.

Befitting of a pitcher who has managed to keep his head above water in professional baseball for 12 seasons, Campillo throws a cornucopia of different offerings. He utilized his fastball just 37.1% of the time, not surprising considering that its velocity (85.6 MPH) would only make Jamie Moyer and Greg Maddux envious. Campillo also dished out an 81.1 MPH slider (25%), a slow 70.3 MPH curve (11.1%) and a seldom-used 81.6 MPH cutter (1.6%). His bread-and-butter pitch, however, was a 74.4 MPH changeup with screwball-like action (used 25.1% of the time). Campillo’s change looks like something that Bugs Bunny would whip out against the Gas House Gorillas, with nearly nine and a half inches of horizontal movement away from lefthanders. With that pitch in his back pocket, the very experienced rookie showed a reverse platoon split. Campillo gave up plenty of extra base hits to right-handers (.274/.300/.480), but he subdued southpaws to the tune of .249/.310/.368.

Throwing just about everything but a knuckleball, Campillo was surprisingly adept at generating swings on pitches outside of the strike zone. His 31 O-Swing% ranked ninth among pitchers tossing at least 150 innings, sandwiched between Dan Haren and Cole Hamels. Campillo also got ahead of hitters as often as anyone, with a 64.3 First Pitch Strike % (F-Strike%) that ranked ninth among hurlers throwing 150+ innings. With so many batters falling behind 0-and-1 or putting the ball in play on the first pitch, Campillo threw just 3.8 pitches per plate appearance.

While he enjoyed a solid rookie season and is currently slated to open the year as Atlanta’s second starter behind Jair Jurrjens, there are some reasons to view Campillo in a skeptical light. A flyball-oriented pitcher (38.1 GB%), Campillo surrendered slightly over one home run per nine innings this past season despite a low 9.4 HR/FB%. HR/FB% tends to stick around 11-12% for starters, so Campillo will likely see a few more of his pitches end up as souvenirs in 2009. Using Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP) from the Hardball Times, which predicts a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, we find that Campillo’s 3.91 ERA was kind of lucky: his XFIP was 4.40. That’s still useful, but the half-run increase takes some of the shine off of Campillo’s season, as his XFIP is just ever slightly above the 4.43 NL average for starters.

While there are statistical reasons as to why Campillo is unlikely to sustain his 2008 level of performance, there are also more speculative, scouting-type assertions that could be made. Prior to 2008, Campillo had scarcely seen the majors, and it seems reasonable to suggest that teams didn’t have the most comprehensive scouting reports on what he threw and when he threw it. Add in Campillo’s sharp command and bushel of pitches, and that puts opposing batters in quite a bind. In his last 11 starts spanning from August to early October, however, Campillo surrendered 39 runs in 57.2 innings, with a 37/17 K/BB ratio. Did teams “figure him out” as his repertoire and tendencies became more apparent? It’s hard to say, but that is a possibility.

Jorge Campillo, with as deep a pitching arsenal as any starter, is extremely fun to watch. However, his finesse, flyball-centric style is enough to give fantasy owners second thoughts. Those tendencies, coupled with his late-season drubbing, cast some doubt upon the repeatability of his performance. Campillo could remain a mildly useful, 4.50 ERA-type pitcher, but expecting another sub-four ERA season would be a mistake.

While buccaneers elsewhere are enjoying plenty of success, the Pittsburgh Pirates continue to struggle mightily. A new, more progressive front office regime is in place, but the route back to contention (much like shipping route in the Gulf of Aden) will be a long an treacherous one. Closing in on a dubious record for the most consecutive losing seasons, the Bucs must invest heavily in the player development system to once again become relevant, cultivating home-grown stars at minimal cost.

One of the few bright spots during former GM Dave Littlefield’s ill-fated tenure was the selection of left-hander Tom Gorzelanny in the 2nd round of the 2003 amateur entry draft. The Triton College product quickly established himself as one of the more promising prospects in the Pirates’ system, compiling an impressive minor league dossier that included a 3.01 ERA, 8.59 K/9 and 2.72 BB/9.

After getting a brief glimpse of the majors in 2005, Gorzelanny went on a tear at AAA Indianapolis in ’06 (99.2 IP, 3.48 K/BB ratio) and tossed 61.2 frames for the Pirates at the end of the season. The results were nothing to write home about (5.84 K/9, 4.52 BB/9) and he served a DL stint for elbow soreness in August, but he displayed a 92 MPH fastball and a pretty sharp low-80’s slider while generating a decent amount of grounders (49.2 GB%). Lefties with that sort of package do not grow on trees.

The Evergreen, Illinois native spent the entire 2007 campaign in the big league rotation, tossing a curiously high 201.2 innings (more on that later). His peripherals weren’t great (6.02 K/9, 3.03 BB/9), and his 3.88 ERA was more the reflection of a very low home run/flyball rate (HR/FB%) of 7% than stellar pitching. Using Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP) from the Hardball Times, we can get a better read on Gorzelanny’s performance. XFIP uses strikeouts, walks and a normalized home run rate (HR/FB% for starting pitchers tends to hover around 11-12%) to calculate a pitcher’s ERA. Gorzelanny’s XFIP was nearly a run higher than his actual ERA, at 4.87. On top of that, his 92 MPH heater dropped to 89.9 MPH, he cut the usage of his slider to 11.2% and his GB% fell to 42.1%.

The most surprising aspect of Gorzelanny’s 2007 season was the way that he was used/abused down the stretch. Despite being in contention for positively nothing, then-manager Jim Tracy worked his 24 year-old starter unnecessarily hard, perhaps to the point of breaking him. In his article examining Chad Billingsley, Peter referenced the “Verducci Effect“, a concept developed by Sports Illustrated writer Tom Verducci. Verducci, using research compiled over the past several seasons, theorizes that young pitchers who are subjected to an innings total increase of 30 or more between one season and the next are more prone to injury.

In 2006, Gorzelanny tossed 99.2 innings at AAA and 61.2 innings with the Pirates, for a combined total of 161.1 IP. Considering that some people (including Baseball Prospectus’ Will Carroll) believe that there’s a marked difference in stress between minor league and major league innings, Gorzelanny’s innings increase between 2006 and 2007 might have actually been higher than 40.1 frames. Even if taken at face value, Gorzelanny’s workload put him squarely in the crosshairs of the “Verducci Effect.”

Perhaps in an attempt to win a few extra ballgames and save his job, Tracy seemingly pushed Gorzelanny harder as the season progressed. Gorzelanny made 11 starts over August and September, and Tracy kept his lefty out there for at least 100 pitches in eight of those starts. It’s not as though the 100+ pitch games were efficient, either: the longest Gorzelanny went in any of those games was seven innings. Not surprisingly, Gorzelanny ranked near the top of the majors in Pitcher Abuse Points, a Baseball Prospectus stat that attempts to measure the stress that pitchers are put under by higher workloads.

With that damage inflicted, Gorzelanny was an unmitigated disaster in 2008. In an injury-shortened 105.1 IP, he struck out just 5.72 batters per nine innings and issued an alarming 5.98 BB/9. Gorzelanny was crushed by the long ball, surrendering 1.71 HR/9. His HR/FB rate was somewhat high at 13.2%, but even if we normalize the HR rate, Gorzelanny’s XFIP was a macabre 6.14. His once-plus fastball continued to fade, coming in at an average speed of 88.7 MPH, and he cut his slider usage down to 7.9%. Instead, Gorzelanny heavily utilized an 82.5 MPH changeup (20.5%). Gorzelanny also continued to surrender more flyballs, with a GB% of just 40.3%. Banished to the minors in July and placed on the DL with a left middle finger injury in September, Gorzelanny endured a season that he would rather forget.

Unfortunately, the current version of Tom Gorzelanny just doesn’t look anything like the guy in the prospect catalogs. Instead of displaying low-90’s heat and a plus slider, he now showcases a much less appealing high-80’s fastball/low-80’s changeup combo, with flyball tendencies to boot. Perhaps an offseason of rest will do wonders for Gorzelanny’s battered body, but steer clear of this Pirate if he doesn’t regain his velocity, lest your fantasy season go the way of an oil tanker off the coast of Somalia.