Johan Santana: Good, but overrated

Another season, another sub-3.00 ERA for Johan Santana. Business as usual, right? Wrong. Fantasy players should be very wary of Johan in 2009.

Johan’s 2.53 ERA in 2008 was the lowest of his illustrious career. However, his 1.15 WHIP was his highest since 2002, and although he struck out 206 batters, his strikeout rate was the lowest it had been since 2001. Furthermore, his walk rate was the highest it had been since 2003. So how the heck did Johan post the best ERA of his career?

It certainly wasn’t his BABIP. In fact, Johan’s .287 BABIP from 2008 was exactly in line with his career BABIP of .286. However, he managed to strand over 82% of the runners who reached base. In fact, Johan’s 82.6% LOB% was the highest LOB% of any starting pitcher in baseball. Johan has always had a high LOB% – remember, good pitchers tend to leave a lot of runners on base simply because they have a high chance of retiring every batter they face – however, his LOB% in 2008 was the highest of his career. Over the last three years, his LOB% has been 76.3%, 77.7% and 78.3%, respectively.

What’s perhaps more worrisome is that Johan’s fundamental statistics appear to be declining across the board. Let’s start with his velocity. Back in 2005, Johan’s fastball averaged 92.4 MPH; in 2006 he managed 93.1 MPH. However, last year his fastball velocity fell to 91.7 MPH, and this year it fell to 91.2 MPH. Additionally – perhaps as compensation? – his changeup velocity fell to 80.0 MPH, from 81.9 MPH last year and 81.8 MPH in 2006.

Of course, as guys like Trevor Hoffman can attest to, a pitcher’s fastball and changeup velocities themselves are far less important than the difference between his fastball and his changeup. Therefore, the simple dip in velocity isn’t particularly concerning in and of itself. However, Santana’s control, as well as his ability to induce swings-and-misses, both appear to be in decline as well.

Johan has thrown a higher percentage of balls every year for four consecutive years, starting in 2005. That year, 30.0% of his pitches were out of the strike zone, in 2006 he missed with 31.5% of his pitches, in 2007 32.1% of his pitches were balls, this year that number was 33.2%. Of even more concern is his drop in swinging strikes. From 2004 through 2007, Santana induced swings and misses on between 13.2% and 14.9% of his pitches. However, in 2008, batters swung and missed at only 11.3% of his pitches. 11.3% is still a very good number, but it is a distinct drop from his previous levels.

Taken individually, each of these factors is not terribly concerning, and could suggest a one-year fluke rather than diminished skills. However, taken as a set, these signs are concerning. Don’t get me wrong: Johan is still a very good pitcher; however, his 2.53 ERA in 2008 didn’t reflect his actual pitching.

In 2008, Johan’s FIP was 3.51. His regressed tRA, or tRA*, was 4.16, which is the equivalent of a 3.76 ERA. Johan’s true ERA level in 2008 was probably somewhere between these numbers, and unless he shows that the things I’ve listed above were one-year flukes, Johan could see his ERA rise a full run – or more – in 2009. That would still make him a good pitcher, especially considering he still should strike out approximately eight batters per nine innings, but it also means that Johan is almost certainly going to be drastically overvalued on draft day. Let someone else pay top dollar for a guy who’s no longer worth the money.