Archive for Starting Pitchers

Jake Peavy has an ADP of 45 and is the sixth-highest rated starting pitcher by this ranking. On first glance, that seems a tad optimistic for a guy who saw his win total drop by nine and his ERA shoot up 31 points last season. But Peavy’s numbers in 2008 were hurt by a mid-season bout with elbow trouble and the Padres’ anemic offense.

Peavy missed a month last year due to a sore elbow, but he got back on the field without surgery and in his first start back pitched six scoreless innings. Peavy took his regular turn the rest of the season, missing only a September start so that he could be with his wife for the birth of their son.

In 14 of his 27 starts last year, the Padres scored three runs or less for Peavy, which helps explain how he was a .500 pitcher with a 2.85 ERA.

But there are some troubling signs from Peavy last year. His SO% fell and his BB% rose. His 2.81 K/BB ratio was the lowest of his career since his second season back in 2003. Peavy was also fortunate in his LOB%. His strand rate of 82.2 percent was the second-lowest mark in the majors. Peavy’s FIP was 3.60, significantly higher than his ERA, although he has beaten his FIP in five of the past six seasons.

All pitchers are risky and Peavy is no different than most. But he seemingly had no lingering issues with his elbow and he does get to pitch half of his games in Petco. Last year in home games, Peavy had a 1.74 ERA.

There have been rumors that Peavy is on the trading block. First he seemed destined for Atlanta and then he was linked with Chicago and the Cubs. If a trade does go through, Peavy would probably suffer in ERA and WHIP but would also be the beneficiary of more offensive support, which could lead to more wins.

Wherever he winds up, Peavy should continue to be one of the top pitchers in baseball. If nothing else, he should give fantasy players more strikeouts once he gets back to the 200-IP level he posted the three previous seasons. One of the top 10 fantasy pitchers available, Peavy is a reasonable person to target for those who like to grab at least one starting pitcher in the first four rounds.

With Javier Vazquez now residing in Atlanta and Jose Contreras (achilles) likely on the shelf for at least the first half of the season, the Chicago White Sox entered the winter looking to fill two spots in the club’s rotation. One of those openings will at least temporarily be occupied by oft-injured Bartolo Colon, but the competition for the fifth slot remains wide open. Over the next few days, I am going to take a look at the candidates for the job: Clayton Richard, Jeffrey Marquez, Lance Broadway and Aaron Poreda.

Clayton Richard, LHP
Age: 25
2009 CHONE Projection: 140 IP, 4.86 FIP, 4.95 K/9, 2.96 BB/9
2009 PECOTA Projection: 110 IP, 6.13 ERA, 4.33 K/9, 3.27 BB/9

An 8th-round pick out of Michigan in the 2005 amateur draft, Richard was a relative unknown entering the 2008 season. The 6-5, 240 pounder was coming off of a fairly mundane 2007 campaign at High-A Winston-Salem, striking out just 5.52 batters per nine innings and allowing 3.29 BB/9 in 161.1 IP. His FIP was a shrug-inducing 4.05, though he did at least keep the ball in the dirt with a 57.3 GB%. That performance did not earn Richard a spot in Baseball America’s top 30 White Sox prospects, as BA likely viewed him as an aged college prospect who merely held his head above water in A-Ball.

In 2008, however, Richard passed through AA Birmingham and AAA Charlotte on his way to the majors. In 83.2 frames at Birmingham, Richard compiled a 2.96 FIP, with 5.7 K’s per nine, an improved walk rate (1.72 BB/9) and just 0.22 HR/9 surrendered. Bumped up to Charlotte, the southpaw posted rates of 6.75 K/9 and 0.82 BB/9 in 44 innings, good for a 2.93 FIP.

Richard made his debut with the South Siders in late July, and while his ERA (6.04) looks pretty grisly, the underlying numbers weren’t too shabby. In 47.2 IP, Richard posted a 4.10 FIP, punching out 5.48 batters per nine innings and walking 2.45 per nine. The former Wolverine used his 90 MPH sinker, 80 MPH slider and 81 MPH changeup to burn some worms, posting a 49.7 GB%. For his work, Richard was dubbed by BA as the 5th-best Pale Hose Prospect this offseason.

It’s difficult to get too awfully excited about a hurler like Richard, who misses few bats but attempts to off-set that tendency with above-average control and groundball tendencies. There are many pitchers of this ilk floating around major league baseball, some of whom will become successful starters while others will never quite translate their minor league success to the highest level.

Owners in most leagues will probably want to avoid drafting Richard, as his upside is fairly modest. CHONE’s projection suggests that Richard will at least hold his head above water in ’09, while PECOTA’s translation has “KEEP AWAY” written in bold, red ink. It remains to be seen whether the lefty’s sinker and savvy will be enough to stave off big league hitters every fifth day, but Richard has at least improved his standing in the organization enough to possibly get the chance.

The Pittsburgh Pirates, to be kind, have not received a desirable return on investment from early-round draft picks in recent years. Despite consistently selecting high in June, the Bucs have repeatedly shot themselves in the foot, particularly in 2002 (Bryan Bullington over B.J. Upton with the 1st overall pick) and 2007 (A-Ball bust Daniel Moskos over prospect demigod Matt Wieters).

The Dave Littlefield-run front office that authored those blunders has thankfully been purged. New GM Neal Huntington has made strides to improve the club’s young talent base over the past year by adding players such as Pedro Alvarez, Quinton Miller and Robbie Grossman in the draft, as well as acquiring youngsters such as Andy LaRoche, Bryan Morris and Jose Tabata in trades (for more on Pittsburgh’s base of young talent, see Marc Hulet’s post here).

While Littlefield’s draft decisions will live in infamy, his 2003 selection of left-hander Paul Maholm has paid dividends for the organization. The 8th overall pick out of Mississippi State that year, Maholm was not viewed as a quintessential fire-breathing starter, but his polished four-pitch mix (sinker, curve, slider, change) figured to expedite his ascent to Pittsburgh.

The former Bulldog did indeed move quickly, as he rose from the New York Penn League in ’03 all the way to the majors by the summer of 2005. His peripherals along the way fell in line with his solid, not spectacular scouting reports, as he struck out 7.23 batters per nine innings while issuing 3.15 BB/9 and burning plenty of worms (59.5 GB%). In his first big league action in the summer of ’05, Maholm posted a 2.18 ERA in 41.1 innings pitched. That figure, derived from a small amount of work, obviously involved some good fortune (his FIP was 3.84).

Since that point, the 26 year-old has shown steady, gradual improvement:

2006: 5.98 K/9, 4.14 BB/9, 1.44 K/BB, 4.81 FIP
2007: 5.32 K/9, 2.48 BB/9, 2.14 K/BB, 4.60 FIP
2008: 6.06 K/9, 2.75 BB/9, 2.21 K/BB, 4.15 FIP

For three years running, Maholm has improved his strikeout-to-walk ratio and his FIP, while keeping his infielders busy with a GB% hovering around 53 percent. The 6-2, 220 pounder also has a three-year upward trend in Outside Swing%: 19.5% in ’06, 20.1% in ’07 and 25.7% in ’08. To boot, Maholm posted the best Contact% of his career this past season (81.5%, down from 85.2% the previous year) and continued to pound the strike zone with a 62 percent First-Pitch Strike% that ranked in the top 25 among all starters.

Pittsburgh’s nominal ace (recently inked to a three-year, arbitration-ending deal with an option year) might not possess the sort of stuff that allows one to dream of future stardom, but Paul Maholm’s average K rate, coupled with pretty solid control and groundball tendencies, make him a good bet to keep his FIP in the low four’s going forward. That might not get you all excited, but Maholm’s brand of above-average, high-probability pitching would be a fine way of rounding out a good fantasy rotation.

The past eight seasons, Mark Buehrle has been guaranteed to pitch 200 innings and win in double digits. That marks him as one of the most durable pitchers around. But from a fantasy standpoint, Buehrle is not on anyone’s list of must-have hurlers.

While Buehrle has been extremely durable, he has also managed to be aggravatingly inconsistent in fantasy categories. Should owners expect 10 wins or 19? Should they count on 98 strikeouts or 165? Will his ERA be closer to 3.12 or 4.99? Will the WHIP be 1.07 or 1.45? Usually these drastic swings only occur in pitchers who had injury problems or suffered one off year or enjoyed a career season. Buehrle had career highs and lows in six different seasons over the past eight campaigns.

By contrast, Barry Zito had three of his career highs in 2002 and all four of his career lows in 2008.

Perhaps due to these wild fluctuations, the projection systems all see Buehrle failing to match his 2008 season, which was his best since 2005. They all come up with him having fewer wins and strikeouts and a higher ERA. Only his WHIP do they see as being stable, and as he finished 50th in that category among qualified pitchers last year, it is not anything really to get excited about.

Mock drafters also are confused with what to make of Buehrle. A mock I participated in today he went undrafted. I have also seen him go as high as the 17th round.

Buehrle makes a fine fifth or sixth starter for a mixed league staff. He is a good late pick because he does have upside. It is certainly possible that he turns in a season like he did in 2002 or 2005 or 2008 and becomes a valuable member of a championship pitching staff. Just don’t gamble on him being your fourth starter.

For a southpaw with plus velocity who won’t turn 28 until April, Rockies hurler Jorge de la Rosa has experienced quite the nomadic career. Originally signed out of Mexico by the Arizona Diamondbacks all the way back in 1998, de la Rosa has since passed through Boston, Milwaukee, Kansas City and Colorado, and has been involved in four trades. Within one week in the fall of 2003, de la Rosa was shipped from Boston back to Arizona in the Curt Schilling trade, only to be sent packing to the Brewers in the 9-player Richie Sexson swap. Jorge was part of a July 2006 deal that sent him to Kansas City for Tony Graffanino, and was bartered yet again in April of ’08, this time heading to the inhospitable environs of Coors Field.

The main culprit for the 6-1, 210 pounder’s game of roster hot-potato has been his control. Despite pumping gas in the low 90’s and complementing the heat with three other offerings, de la Rosa has walked nearly five batters per nine innings (4.92 BB/9) in the big leagues, a continuation of his work in the minors (3.64 BB/9). de la Rosa’s strike zone issues have left him fighting to stay in one place for more than a season or two, as he has compiled a career 4.86 FIP.

2008, however, brought with it legitimate progress. de la Rosa made 23 starts and tossed 130 innings both in ’07 with the Royals and ’08 with the Rockies, and the results this past season were far more promising. The Monterrey native posted mild peripherals with Kansas City, with 5.68 K/9, 3.67 BB/9 and a 5.27 FIP. In 2008, de la Rosa upped his strikeout rate considerably, punching out 8.86 batters per nine innings. His control still came and went (4.29 BB/9), but the end result was a sturdy-looking 4.06 FIP.

de la Rosa added a tick to his fastball this past year, throwing his heat at an average of 92.8 MPH (91.4 MPH in ’07). In addition, he started throwing his slider a good deal more, using the 84 MPH breaker 16.1% of the time in ’08 after snapping off a slide-piece just 6.4% in 2007. Armed with a solid fastball, a sharp slider, a slow 73 MPH curve (9.3%) and an 83.5 MPH changeup (18%), Jorge improved his Outside-Swing and Contact rates considerably.

After garnering an O-Swing% of just 20.3% with the Royals in 2007, de la Rosa got batters to fish out of the strike zone 25.6% with Colorado in ’08, slightly above the major league average. To boot, his Contact% fell from 82.1% in ’07 down to 76.4% in ’08. That was the 10th-lowest contact rate among pitchers tossing at least 130 frames, sandwiched between A.J. Burnett and Jake Peavy.

Burned by the home run in the past, de la Rosa modestly upped his groundball percentage from 40.6% to 45.7% this past season. The extra worm-burners, coupled with the K’s, were enough to qualify de la Rosa for Rich Lederer’s list of starters posting the best combination of groundball and strikeout rates over at The Baseball Analysts. Not surprisingly, the group of starters keeping the ball on the ground and missing bats were the most successful of the four types of pitchers studied (high K and GB rates, high K and low GB rates, low K and high GB rates and low K and low GB rates). Said Lederer:

“I am intrigued by de la Rosa, who was 5-2 with a 2.45 ERA and compelling peripheral stats in August and September, a period covering 11 games and nine starts (including five at Coors Field) and 58.2 innings.”

With the health status of Jeff Francis (shoulder) very much in doubt, de la Rosa figures to capture one of Colorado’s rotation spots. Keep a close eye on Jorge this spring- he could finally make good on the promise he has only hinted at to this point in his career.

Fresh off a glorious World Series title, the Philadelphia Phillies will soon convene for spring training with relatively few roster changes. Outside of a curiously-handled swap of defensively-challenged left fielders (Seattle import Raul Ibanez is several years Pat Burrell’s senior, guaranteed nearly twice as much cash and cost the club a first-round pick), Philly returns with its core intact.

Aside from the obviously crucial health status of Chase Utley (hip), perhaps the most interesting story during March will be the battle for the fifth starter’s job. $20.5 million dollar man Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton are set one through four, but that last slot has a few contenders of varying consequence vying for the job. If we assume for the moment that Carlos Carrasco (Philly’s #2 prospect, per Baseball America) heads back to AAA for some more seasoning and newly-minted Chan Ho Park is probably best kept in the bullpen, then the battle for the last rotation spot comes down to lefty J.A. Happ and right-hander Kyle Kendrick.

Frankly, it doesn’t seem as though there should be much of a competition. Happ, a 26 year-old Northwestern product, is coming off of a stellar campaign at AAA Lehigh Valley. In 135 innings, the lanky 6-6 southpaw whiffed 151 batters (10.07 per nine innings) and walked 3.2 per nine, posting a 3.40 FIP. That strikeout rate might overstate Happ’s case at least somewhat- he’s not overpowering, but he does feature a solid changeup and slider to compensate for an 88-90 MPH fastball.

Happ has a history of making batters appear hapless (sorry), as he has punched out over a batter per inning during his minor league career (545 K in 528.2 IP, or 9.28 K/9). His control isn’t spectacular (3.49 BB/9) and a fly ball tendency (career 40.3 GB%) could be pernicious in Citizen’s Bank Park, so we’re not talking about a can’t miss stud or anything. But Happ’s brand of pitching very likely beats the alternative.

Kyle Kendrick, despite possessing 3 K’s in his name, just doesn’t miss many bats. The 24 year-old has displayed pretty good control in the majors (2.67 BB/9 in 276.2 innings), but his strikeout rate makes Livan Hernandez puff out his chest: Kendrick has a career mark of just 3.81 K/9. Not surprisingly, he has been among the easiest pitchers to make contact with. Only the aforementioned Hernandez (91.3 Contact%) gave batters a more hittable assortment last year among those tossing at least 150 innings, as opponents put the bat on Kendrick’s offerings 89.9% of the time.

The 6-3, 190 pounder managed to hold his head above water in 2007 when he walked just 1.86 batters per nine and posted a 4.94 FIP, but the figure ballooned to 5.55 this past season as he issued 3.3 BB/9 and K’d only 3.93, “good” for a 1.19 K/BB. Even if Kendrick possessed Maddux-esque control, he would be walking a fine line. With a neutral GB/FB ratio and a walk rate above three, he faces very long odds of enjoying major league success.

Happ might not be a sure-fire, flashy prospect, but he has shown the ability to fool hitters throughout his minor league career (something Kendrick didn’t really do either, with 6.28 K/9) and projects to be the better starter. CHONE (which incorporates minor league data) tends to agree, forecasting Happ to post a 4.52 FIP in 2009, compared to 5.11 for Kendrick. If the Phillies get Happ-y, you could do worse than to take a flyer on J.A. in deeper leagues.

For the better part of the past decade, the Oakland Athletics’ rotation has been a revolving door of talented arms. From “The Big Three” to the more recently imploded Harden, Haren and Blanton-led outfit, change has been about the only constant in Oakland’s starting five.

When the A’s decided that Rich Harden’s excellent-but-transient contributions had worn out their welcome, the club shipped him to the Cubs for a package of prospects including right-hander Sean Gallagher. The 23 year-old might not be a household name, but he’s someone you’ll want to keep in mind as Oakland looks to build another excellent cost-controlled rotation.

Originally selected in the 12th round of the 2004 draft, Gallagher used his eclectic mix of pitches (fastball, curve, slider and change) to post a 2.77 ERA in 480.2 career minor league frames. The 6-2, 235 pounder punched out over a batter per inning (9.03 K/9) while showing adequate control (3.5 BB/9). Gallagher was given his first extended big-league trial last season (21 starts between to Cubs and the A’s, plus 2 relief appearances with Chicago) and while the results might look rather bleak on the surface (he posted a 5.15 ERA), the underlying results look more promising.

Gallagher’s FIP was a less scary 4.48. While he certainly issued more free passes than desired (4.53 BB/9), he did show the ability to miss bats by punching out 8.04 batters per nine innings. A high BABIP (.321) and a really low strand rate (66.5%) conspired to make Gallagher’s appear worse than it really was. The Boston native was not afraid to mix in all of his pitches, either. He used his 92 MPH fastball about 63% of the time, supplementing the heat with a healthy dose of 83 MPH sliders and 75 MPH curves (about 15% each). He also tossed the occasional 81 changeup (6% of the time).

While Gallagher racked up some grounders early on in his minor league career, he has become more of a flyball-oriented pitcher as he has climbed the ladder to the majors. In 130 career frames in the big leagues, Gallagher has posted a 36 GB%. A continued propensity to put the ball in the air would be a problem in some parks, but Gallagher’s new digs would suit such a style: McAfee Coliseum has suppressed HR production by 13% over the past three seasons, and overall run production by 11 percent.

Sean Gallagher might not be in the upper echelon of young pitchers, but there’s a lot to like here. The control will have to improve if he is going to take a step forward, but Gallagher has a diverse repertoire, the ability to fool batters and resides in a ballpark that really does a number on batting lines. Get Gallagher in the later rounds of your draft- this erstwhile Cub might just be part of Oakland’s next wave of great young pitching talent.

This winter, the Chicago Cubs have strung together a series of puzzling transactions. From shipping versatile infielder/outfielder Mark DeRosa to the Indians for three lukewarm pitching prospects (Jeff Stevens, John Gaub, Christopher Archer), acquiring Kevin Gregg from Florida for six years of team control over Jose Ceda, not offering arbitration to type-A free agent Kerry Wood (the “worst case scenario” there involves Wood accepting, giving the club a good, injury-prone reliever under control for just one year) and essentially swapping option-less former prospects Felix Pie and Ronny Cedeno for Aaron Heilman, GM Jim Hendry has sent out quite the load of talent without receiving comparable value in return. Signing Milton Bradley is a risky-but-defensible move and swapping Jason Marquis for Luis Vizcaino is unlikely to create ripples, but on the whole, it has been a winter of trading down in the Windy City.

The “out of options” fire sale continued yesterday, as the pitching-starved Orioles snagged left-hander Rich Hill from the Cubs for a player to be named. The move is all upside from Baltimore’s vantage point: they acquire a guy who was pretty useful as recently as 2007, and if Hill busts, they won’t give up much of anything: the quality of the PTBNL is contingent on Hill’s performance for the O’s.

Hill, 29 in March, certainly has a better chance of cracking Baltimore’s rotation than he did in Chicago, where his turbulent 2008 made him a forgotten man within the organization. While the O’s have an impressive collection of well-regarded arms on the farm (Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, and to a lesser extent guys like Brandon Erbe, David Hernandez, Troy Patton, Bradley Bergesen and Chorye Spoone), the current rotation depth chart reads like a collection of waiver-wire talent.

Jeremy Guthrie’s peripherals suggest he’s more league-average starter than rotational pillar (his FIP has hovered around 4.50 the past two years, with a .270-ish BABIP and a high strand rate making things appear sturdier). Control-oriented import Koji Uehara “should be roughly around average, and more likely on the low side than the high”, according to Baseball Prospectus’ Clay Davenport (subscription required). Beyond that? The O’s are left hoping that Radhames Liz and/or Matt Albers have good enough control or a deep enough repertoire to be sufficient starters. And there’s Mark Hendrickson, who’s tall. So, there’s that.

I do not claim to have any special insight into Rich Hill’s health, mechanics or mental state, and the results in ’08 were grim. In 67 combined innings tossed last year between the majors, AAA, High-A and Rookie Ball, Hill walked 62 batters. Small sample size and all, Hill’s 2008 plate discipline numbers tell the story: aware that Hill couldn’t locate, opposing batters swung at just 10.8% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (the league average is close to 25%), and hitters swung just 34.8% of the time overall. Why go up hacking against a guy who’s very likely to issue a free pass?

Things didn’t get any better during the offseason, as he walked a batter per inning for Aragua in the Venezuelan Winter League. Is it possible that Hill has “Steve Blass Disease” and the strike zone will continue to elude him? Sure.

But, what I do know is that on the whole, Hill has shown a solid skill-set in the majors. In 337.2 career frames, the University of Michigan product has punched out 8.24 batters per nine innings while walking 3.65 per nine. An extreme flyball pitcher (career 34.3 GB%), Hill has been burned by the home run (1.28 surrendered per nine innings). Overall, the 6-5 southpaw has posted a 4.57 FIP, close to league-average. Hill’s flyballing ways likely won’t serve him well as he transitions into the insanely competitive AL East and a ballpark that inflates home run production (Camden Yards has a 3-year HR park factor of 123).

So, what does Hill have to do to reclaim his past success? Aside from the obvious (“uh, throw more strikes”), Hill could stand to diversify his repertoire. He has always relied upon a high-80’s fastball and a big, slow-breaking curveball, but Hill basically eschewed his changeup last season, and also did so during a rough and short stint with the Cubs in 2005.

While keeping in mind that we are dealing with pitch data from only 19.2 innings, Hill threw a changeup just 2.3% of the time in ’08 compared to 8.3% in 2007. With no confidence in his fastball and a reluctance to pull the string, Hill threw his trademark curve 35.4% of the time (27.3% in ’07). Recapturing his fastball control and command will surely be paramount, but it couldn’t hurt to be a little less predictable as well.

Hill is no sure thing, but he presents the same “low-risk, high reward” opportunity for fantasy owners as he does for the Orioles. After such a brutal season, Hill is unlikely to be on many radar screens. Keep an eye on his progress during spring training- 2008 was disastrous, but he posted a near 3/1 K/BB ratio as recently as ’07. If Hill regains his control, he could prove to be a shrewd acquisition for open-minded owners.

It’s a fair question to ask: which Washington entity has endured larger struggles since 2005- the executive and legislative branches of our government, or the Washington Nationals? While the former has implemented a pair of “bailout” packages to quell an economic maelstrom, the Nats very much remain a toxic asset.

Fresh off a sordid 102-loss campaign in which the club posted a run differential of -184, Washington’s big league ballclub could use all the help they can get. Luckily, if you squint really hard, you can see the beginnings of a turnaround.

Talented-but-volatile outfielder Elijah Dukes turned in an impressive season (a .382 wOBA with plus defense in right field). Center fielder Lastings Milledge and backstop Jesus Flores have oscillated between tantalizing and frustrating since arriving from the New York Mets via a trade and the Rule V Draft, respectively. Third baseman Ryan Zimmerman has sort of stagnated at the plate (wOBA’s from 2006-2008: .348, .340, .336), but the Virginia product is still just 24 years old and has been a big asset overall with an average of 3.9 Value Wins over the past three seasons. The offense was pretty lousy last season (with a .309 wOBA that ranked ahead of only the A’s), but one can at least dream upon Dukes and Zimmerman blossoming into all-around forces while simultaneously praying that Flores and Milledge can harness their control of the strike zone.

While there are some offensive pieces to the contending puzzle present, the rotation remains rather bleak. The Nats’ starting pitchers placed 28th in team FIP, faring better than only the lowly Rangers and Orioles. Presently, Washington’s rotation hopes lie in the hands of imports Daniel Cabrera and Scott Olsen, once-promising arms whose performances have tailed off dramatically. While expecting a rebound from either Cabrera or Olsen is a dubious proposition and incumbent “ace” John Lannan looks more like an adequate back-end starter than any sort of rotation headliner, Washington does have one potential ace up its sleeve.

Jordan Zimmermann, a 22 year-old right-hander, has quickly established himself as the top pitching prospect in the organization. A second-round pick in 2007 out of Division III Wisconsin-Stevens Point, Zimmermann signed for $495,000 as the 67th player taken overall. As Baseball America noted at the time, a confluence of factors caused the four-pitch righty to hover under the radar somewhat:

“Scouts haven’t had an easy time following him this spring, however. Zimmermann broke his jaw in two places when he was struck by a batted ball while pitching live batting practice during an offseason workout. He missed three games and lost 10 pounds, and having wisdom teeth pulled during the season didn’t help him regain his strength. Bad early-season weather also made it difficult to keep him on a regular schedule.”

While that string of inauspicious events limited his scouting exposure, Zimmermann has enjoyed nothing but good luck since signing on the dotted line. Sent to the New York Penn League in the summer of ’07, the 6-2, 200 pounder immediately opened eyes in a 49-inning stint. The 2007 Division III College World Series MVP punched out 62 batters (11.39 K/9) and walked 16 (2.94 BB/9), posting a 2.18 FIP in the process.

One might expect a grizzled college pitcher to feast upon younger, less-experienced batters, but Zimmermann continued to eat up batsmen in 2008. Assigned to High-A Potomac to begin the year, Zimmermann quickly proved that his low-90’s heat, hard upper-80’s slider, mid-70’s hook and low-80’s changeup were no match for the Carolina League. In 27.1 frames, he compiled a 31/8 K/BB ratio and a 2.29 FIP. Bumped up to Double-A Harrisburg, Zimmermann continued to miss bats (8.69 K/9) and exhibited decent control (3.29 BB/9) in 106.2 innings (good for a 3.55 FIP). He kept the ball on the ground at both levels as well, with a 55 GB% at Potomac and a slightly above-average 48 GB% at Harrisburg.

There’s much to like about Zimmermann from both a statistical and scouting viewpoint. He has whiffed over a batter per inning during his rapid ascent through the minors, while exhibiting solid enough control and earning the adulation of the scouting community at the same time. Zimmermann ranked as Washington’s number one prospect following the ’08 season (per Baseball America) and checked in at #42 on Keith Law’s ranking of the top 100 prospects in the game. Said Law:

“Zimmermann is a classic four-pitch pitcher who changes speeds well and commands his stuff, locating his 90-94 mph four-seamer to all parts of the zone. He also keeps the ball down. His best pitch remains his mid-80s slider, short and tight with good tilt, although his curve is tighter now than it was when he was an amateur. Plus, he turns his changeup over well….He’s not a potential ace but a very high-probability No. 3 with a chance to be better than that because of his plus command.”

Zimmermann might not be the classic fire-breathing pitching prospect who causes radar guns to melt, but his deep repertoire, strong peripherals and quick rise up the organizational ladder suggest that he could establish himself as Washington’s top arm in short order. Given the paucity of alternatives and the likelihood that the ballclub will spend another year in the NL East’s basement, the Nationals have every reason to give Zimmermann a look sometime during the 2009 season. Washington’s other Zimmerman(n) should stimulate a stagnant starting five and is well worth a look in fantasy leagues when he gets the call.

Left-hander Garrett Olson has endured quite the chaotic offseason. The 25 year-old with just 165 major league innings to his name has swapped teams twice within a two-week period. First shipped to Chicago along with minor league ‘pen arm Henry Williamson for Felix Pie, Olson now heads across the country to Seattle with shortstop Ronny Cedeno in exchange for reliever/hopeful roation member Aaron Heilman (also twice-traded this winter, having been Mariner property for less than two months).

Assuming Olson will remain with the M’s (thus allowing his head to stop spinning), the Cal Poly product will compete for the fifth-starter’s role in Seattle. The chances of him winning that spot outright in spring training appear slim- he faces competition for Ryan Rowland-Smith, Brandon Morrow and Ryan Feierabend – but Olson still might see his fair share of rotation work. All clubs end up calling upon those 6th, 7th and 8th starters, and with Erik Bedard’s health uncertain and Morrow facing a massive innings leap if he’s in the rotation from the get-go, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the 2005 supplemental first-rounder end up making a fair number of starts.

To this point in his major league career, Olson has struggled quite a bit. His ERA (6.87) overstates the extent of his issues (his FIP is a less-frightening 5.28), but the finesse southpaw has had difficulty finding the strike-zone on a consistent basis. While he exhibited solid control in the minors with 2.93 BB/9, Olson has issue nearly five free passes per nine innings in the big leagues. The 6-1, 200 pounder also displayed a penchant for missing bats down on the farm with a career K/9 mark of 8.91, but major league batters haven’t been fooled by his high-80’s heat or low 80’s slider and changeup (6.05 K/9).

As one might imagine, Olson’s mild fastball generates plenty of flyballs. His career GB% in the majors is 40.5%. Pitching in a venue that does not take kindly to such tendencies (Camden Yards has a 3-year HR park factor of 123, per the Bill James Handbook), Olson gave up plenty of tater’s with the O’s, surrendering 1.15 HR/9. If Olson had remained Baltimore property of had stayed put in Chicago (with an also-unfriendly 3 year HR park factor of 117), he would have been toiling in a stadium ill-suited to his pitching tendencies.

In Seattle, however, things look more promising. Safeco Field is one of the least threatening parks for hurlers, with a three-year run factor of 92 (suppressing offensive production by 8%). Those run-stifling tendencies extend to homers, as Safeco has diminished long-ball levels by 6% from 2006-2008 (94 park factor).

To boot, Olson will now pitch in front of what figures to be one of the absolute best defensive outfields in the game. Seattle’s new front office appears to have made defense a priority, having acquired gifted glove men Franklin Gutierrez and Endy Chavez in a 12-player bonanza that shipped J.J. Putz to Queens (Ronny Cedeno might also fit the “defense-first” bill, depending on what metrics one looks at: he rates well at 2nd base put poorly at shortstop per UZR, but John Dewan’s Plus/Minus system liked his work during his extended big league trial in ’06, giving him a +5 mark). Residing in front of rangy fly-catchers in a pitcher’s park, Olson looks like a more viable fantasy option than he did with either the Orioles of the Cubs.

While acquiring players like Gutierrez, Chavez and Olson will never garner front-page headlines, Jack Zduriencik and company have done a fantastic job of matching team personnel to the tendencies of Seattle’s home ballpark. Olson is certainly no star. But, he might just turn out to be a decent rotation candidate now that he’s pitching in a favorable environment, flanked by three outfielders capable of covering the gaps.