Archive for Starting Pitchers

The Toronto Blue Jays were stuck between a rock and a hard place in 2008. The Jays were an excellent run-prevention club last season, surrendering just 610 runs (by far the lowest total in the game: the Dodgers finished a distant second with 648 tallies allowed). Toronto’s stinginess in permitting runners to cross home plate was a combined effort: the starters posted the third-best FIP in the majors (3.79), the guys in the ‘pen placed fourth (3.85) and the Jays flashed the leather, ranking third in Defensive Efficiency (.704). Despite tallying 86 victories and posting 93 Pythagorean Wins, Toronto finished fourth in the brutally competitive AL East.

Suffice it to say, things will not get any easier in 2009. With the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees all poised to approach or surpass the 90-win mark again, the Jays stand little chance of competing. Last year’s strong rotation will be missing a few key pieces- A.J. Burnett defected to the Bombers, Shaun Marcum will miss the season following Tommy John surgery, and promising power pitcher Dustin McGowan is still in the process of recovering from shoulder surgery.

With the back of Toronto’s rotation unsettled, the opportunity exists for one of the more underappreciated youngsters in the minors to make his mark. Brett Cecil might just be the best pitching prospect that few have heard of.

Plucked out of Maryland in the supplemental first round of the 2007 amateur draft, Cecil was a top closer for the Terrapins in college. However, the Jays noted the lefty’s promising four-pitch mix (low-90’s fastball, plus slider, curve, changeup) and sturdy frame (6-3, 220 pounds) and envisioned a future starter.

Cecil’s transition into the rotation has gone exceedingly well. Sent to Auburn (New York-Penn League) to start his professional career, Cecil mowed down less experienced players. In 47 innings, he whiffed 56 batters (10.15 K/9) while filling up the strike zone as well (1.99 K/9). His heavy fastball made many a hitter put the ball on the ground, as Cecil posted a 57.9 GB%. The Terp’s 5.09 K/BB ratio and 2.05 FIP impressed Baseball America, as the publication named Cecil Toronto’s second-best farm product (behind Travis Snider). BA predicted that “his frontline stuff and bulldog demeanor” would allow Cecil to become “at least a number 3 starter.”

The power southpaw began the 2008 campaign at High-A Dunedin, but his stay there would be short. After punching out 11 in 10.1 innings, Cecil was promoted to AA New Hampshire. In 77.2 innings with the Fisher Cats, he continued to miss a ton of bats (10.08 K/9), limit the walks (2.67 BB/9) and burn many a worm (59.2 GB%). Cecil’s FIP in the Eastern League was a sparkling 2.71. Continuing his rapid ascent, Cecil reached AAA Syracuse last in the season. He issued a few too many free passes (4.7 BB/9) in 30.2 innings of work, but continued to fool hitters and keep his fielders on their toes (9.1 K/9, 67.4 GB%). BA Ranked Cecil 3rd in the Jays’ system following the season.

Brett Cecil might not make the Blue Jays straight out of spring training, but there’s a lot to like here. The big lefty has a track record of punching out a plethora of batters, has solid control and also possesses strong groundball tendencies. High K and groundball rates- that’s a recipe for success in the major leagues. He might just be ready to the jump to the highest level, too. Cecil’s translated FIP (per Minor League Splits) was 3.94 in 2008, and Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system pegs the 22 year-old for a tasty 3.54 ERA, 83 K’s and 34 BB’s in 90 innings in 2009. The groundball-centric hurler would also be flanked by plus defenders, as Toronto’s defensive alignment essentially returns intact.

Cecil might not come with the notoriety of a David Price or a Tommy Hanson, but he’s an intriguing arm in his own right. If you’re looking for a rookie starter who could hit the ground running, then Cecil is your man.

Now that we have covered the cases for Freddy Garcia (a former workhorse trying to get his career on track) and Tim Redding (attempting to make an impression with his 6th organization), let’s turn our attention to the man with a recent track record perhaps more dubious than either Garcia’s or Redding’s: Livan Hernandez.

Hernandez, who turned 34 this past week, has racked up an astonishing 2,551 innings during the course of his career. I described Garcia as a horse yesterday, but the Cuban-born Hernandez has eaten frames like few else since debuting with the Marlins as a 21 year-old in 1996. From 1998 to 2007, Livan topped the 200-inning mark every year, save for ’99 (he fell just short with 199.2 innings). His peripherals have never been all that spectacular (5.69 K/9, 3.08 BB/9), but his league-average innings-munching (4.44 FIP) provided a good deal of value to Florida, San Francisco, Montreal and Washington.

Since 2007, however, Hernandez has seen his K rate fall to untenable levels. After whiffing 5.33 batters per nine between the Nats and D-Backs in ’06, Livan posted 3.96 K/9 for Arizona in ’07 and actually saw that rate fall to 3.35 per nine this past season.

Hernandez’s FIP (4.94) wasn’t as bad as his six-plus ERA, but the 6-2, 250 pounder is clearly walking a tight rope. Relying primarily on a “fastball” with beer-league softball velocity (he threw the 83.7 MPH pitch 72.4% of the time in 2008, 5th-most among all starters) and supplementing the pitch with a soft mid-70’s slider (16.6%) and a softer mid-60’s curve (6.7%), Hernandez was by far the easiest starter to make contact with.

Opposing hitters touched Hernandez’s offerings 91.3% of the time, nearly three percent higher than second-place sinkerballer Aaron Cook. Splitting the season between Minnesota and Planet Coors, Livan managed to surrender a hit total that looks like a typo: 257 in 180 innings. His BABIP was .345, but Hernandez’s offerings are put in play so often that he’s going to be subject to the caprices of his defense.

Inked to a minor league contract that will pay him $1M if he’s added to the 40-man roster (plus $1M in possible incentives), Hernandez is assured nothing from the club, nor should he be at this point in his lengthy career. Livan has had a durable, productive stay in the majors, but his days as anything more than a replacement-level arm are likely over.

The Baltimore Orioles have multiple reasons to thank the Seattle Mariners, and right-hander Chris Tillman is one of the top gifts that the club received in the Erik Bedard trade prior to the 2008 season. Tillman’s minor league numbers were nothing special prior to the 2008 season, but he was a second-round pick out of a California high school in the 2006 draft.

Tillman posted a 5.26 ERA in High-A ball for the Mariners in 2007, but his FIP was significantly better at 4.43. He allowed 107 hits in 102.2 innings with rates of 4.21 BB/9 and 9.20 K/9. The right-hander jumped to Double-A for the 2008 season with the Orioles and Tillman allowed just 115 hits in 135.2 innings. He also posted rates of 4.31 BB/9 and 10.22 K/9.

Once Tillman’s control improves, he could be absolutely dominating with a low-to-mid-90s fastball and a curveball with plus potential. The change-up is still developing. Tillman performed well against both right-handed and left-handed hitters in 2008, although he allowed a HR/9 rate of 0.93 against RH batters, as opposed to 0.29 HR/9 against LH batters.

Tillman has a couple of fellow pitching prospects who will serve as competition for starting roles, including right-hander Jake Arrieta and southpaw Brian Matusz, the club’s top pick in 2008. The good news is that there are not many – if any – pitchers currently in the big club’s starting rotation that are secure in their roles (expect perhaps Jeremy Guthrie). Radhames Liz and David Hernandez are two other pitchers to keep in mind for rotation spots as well, and Liz already had a taste of the Majors.

If all goes well for the Orioles (But when does it with young pitching?), all five pitchers could be in the club’s MLB starting rotation by the end of 2010, and Tillman should be near the top of the list. As for this season, keep an eye on Tillman in the spring to see where he falls on the depth chart for a possible mid-season call-up. If he does hit the Majors this season, he could struggle a bit because of his control issues and inexperience. Expect about six wins, 100 innings pitched and 110 hits allowed, as well as rates of 4.50 BB/9 and 7.25 K/9.

Yesterday, we examined the multitude of questions facing the Mets’ rotation entering 2009 and examined fifth-starter candidate Freddy Garcia. Garica isn’t the only free-agent signee looking for a fresh start in Queens, however: Tim Redding will also vie for the last spot in the Mets’ rotation.

The 31 year-old Redding has been a roster nomad during the course of his career, not an altogether surprising turn of events for a hurler with a career 4.85 FIP. The Rochester, New York native was originally selected by the Houston Astros in the 20th round of the 1998 amateur draft. Redding pitched for the ‘Stros from 2001-2004, transitioning between the bullpen and the starting rotation. The right-hander generally didn’t find Enron/Astros Field/Minute Maid to his liking, as he posted inflated HR rates in three of his four seasons in the Lone Star State. He did turn in a decent 2003 season, however, with a 4.12 FIP.

Redding was shipped to the Padres in the spring of ’05 for Humberto Quintero, but scarcely pitched for the Fathers before being bartered to the Yankees during the summer. He posted a 6.61 FIP between the two clubs in 30.2 innings. Coming off of such a poor year, Redding accepted a minor league pact from the White Sox in 2006 and spent the entire campaign at AAA Charlotte. The veteran performed adequately, with 7.1 K/9, 2.69 BB/9 and a 4.07 FIP.

The pitching-starved Nationals came calling in 2007, and Redding joined the club’s AAA New Orleans affiliate to begin the year. Striking out 6.32 per nine innings and walking 2.41, Redding was called back up to the big leagues for the first time since his ugly ’05 stint with San Diego and New York. In 84 frames for Washington, Redding posted a 3.64 ERA. However, the underlying numbers were less impressive: with a 1.24 K/BB ratio (5.04 K/9, 4.07 BB/9), a 5.17 FIP and a low BABIP, Redding figured to regress in 2008.

Redding’s ERA did head north this past season, as his FIP (4.93) and ERA (4.95) were nearly a perfect match. The 5-11, 225 pounder did improve his peripherals somewhat, with 5.93 K/9 and 3.21 BB/9, though he did remain homer-prone (1.34 HR/9). However, despite Washington’s dearth of starting options, Redding was non-tendered by the Nats. He latched on to the Mets on a one-year, $2.25 million deal earlier this offseason. While one of Redding’s competitors (Garcia) has plenty of health issues to answer, Redding is not entirely in the clear either: Redding had surgery during the offseason to repair a stress fracture in his left foot and is now dealing with a sore shoulder.

A four-pitch guy (91 MPH curve, mid-80’s slider, high-70’s curve, low-80’s changeup), Redding lacks any definitive strength as a pitcher. His K rates are slightly below league average, his walk rate is ordinary and he’s a bit prone to grooving a pitch that ends up in the bleachers. That’s not to say he doesn’t have some value: the threshold for fifth starters is very low, and teams benefit from just getting better than replacement-level pitching from the spot. For fantasy purposes, though? It’s probably best to avoid Redding.

Entering the offseason, the Mets figured to address their wretched bullpen (25th in Win Probability Added in 2008). The team from Queens did just that, acquiring J.J. Putz from the Mariners in a 12-player bonanza and inking free-agent Francisco Rodriguez. However, there were also rumors of the club fortifying the starting rotation by courting free-agent sinkerballer Derek Lowe (now a Brave) as well as Ben Sheets (no longer feasible, given his torn flexor tendon injury that required surgery) . Instead, the Mets resigned Oliver Perez, whose occasional brilliance is supplemented with a boatload lot of walks and homers (Perez’s three-year Win Value totals: 0.0 in 2006, 2.2 in ’07 and 1.3 in ’08).

The Mets enter 2009 with an improved ‘pen, but there are a plethora of questions about the men asked to give six or seven strong innings prior to those high-profile relievers entering the ballgame. Changeup artist Johan Santana may no longer be the unstoppable force of his Minnesota days, but 85-90% of peak Santana is still one heck of a pitcher. Beyond that, each member of the rotation has a question to answer. How healthy is John Maine, who was bothered by a bone spur in his shoulder last season? Can Mike Pelfrey (4.93 K/9 in ’08) supplement his two-seamer with something that bends? Will the aforementioned Perez (retained for 3 years and $36M) be anything more than a well-compensated league-average starter?

New York also enters spring training with an open competition for the fifth-starter’s role, featuring a former rotation horse (Freddy Garcia), a Washington retread (Tim Redding), the most hittable starter in the game (Livan Hernandez), a southpaw prospect (Jonathon Niese) and another farm product whose stats have never matched his generous scouting reports (Robert Parnell). For now, let’s take a look at Freddy Garcia

Garcia, now 33, was once as durable as any starter in the game. The right-hander topped the 200-inning mark each season between 2001 and 2006, generally providing Fielding Independent ERA’s in the low four’s. Chief Garcia’s combination of quantity and quality made him one of the more underappreciated hurlers in the AL, as he provided an average of 3.6 Value wins over the 2002-2006 period. The Phillies acquired Garcia from the White Sox in December of 2006 (for package of Gavin Floydl and Gio Gonzalez), figuring that they acquired a guy who would give them 200+ innings of quality pitching.

Unfortunately, Garcia’s career has taken a sharp downward turn since that point. The Venezuelan tossed just 58 frames for the Phillies in 2007, suffering from biceps tendinitis in spring training before succumbing to labrum surgery in late August.

Garcia missed the majority of the 2008 season while rehabbing, latching on to the pitching-thin Tigers toward the end of the summer. He made three late-season starts, including one against his former employer, the White Sox. Freddy had to bow out of that game with shoulder soreness, then had a similar issue while pitching in the Venezuelan Winter League.

The 6-4, 260 pounder once sat in the low-90’s and supplemented the heat with a hard slider, but he sat in the upper-80’s with his fastball in ’08, with a softer, less-utilized slide-piece. Garcia has always possessed a wide array of offerings (fastball, slider, curve, change, splitter), and he relied upon the changeup/splitter heavily in his short stint last year. Garcia’s health will ultimately determine how much he can contribute, but there’s little harm in seeing if he can reclaim his career with little money guaranteed: according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Freddy will make $1.5M if he’s added to the 40-man roster, with $6.5M in incentives possible. An MRI taken on Garcia’s shoulder in December showed no structural damage, which is certainly a positive.

The chances of Garcia becoming a 200+ inning starter again are very slim. However, he could provide some value to the Mets and fantasy owners if his shoulder allows him to continue his career.

Earlier today, we profiled Sean Marshall (a five-pitch lefty with shelf life, if not upside) and Aaron Heilman (solid reliever, dubious starter) as candidates for Chicago’s vacant fifth starter’s job. Let’s continue to examine that competition by putting Jeff Samardzija and Chad Gaudin under the microscope.

Like Heilman, Samardzija is a former Fighting Irish star. The Cubs lured the potential NFL wide receiver to the mound from the gridiron with a five-year, $10 million big league contract back in 2006. Since then, the 6-5, 220 pounder has authored an inscrutable stat line in the minors. In his full-season debut in 2007, Samardzija scarcely missed any bats (3.77 K/9) in 107.1 innings at High-A Daytona, though his control was fair (2.93 BB/9) and he posted a 52 GB%. Bumped up to AA Tennessee for the second half of the season, Samardzija still didn’t smoke many batters with the Smokies, punching out 5.24 batters per nine in 34.1 frames.

Sent back to Tennessee to kick off the 2008 campaign, Samardzija continued to compile mediocre numbers. He K’d just 5.21 per nine innings, while walking nearly five (4.97 BB/9) in 76 innings of work. Despite that dubious performance, Samardzija was promoted to AAA Iowa. In the corn fields, Samardzija actually began to show some of the skills that earned him such a hefty bonus. In 37.1 innings, he posted rates of 9.64 K/9 and 3.86 BB/9.

Promoted to the majors in late July, Samardzija tossed 27.1 innings for the North Siders. He missed bats (8.13 K/9), though his control was erratic (4.88 BB/9). The powerful repertoire which caused the Cubs to open the coffers was on display, as Samardzija’s fastball sat around 95 MPH out of the ‘pen. He supplemented the heat with a low-80’s slider and a mid-80’s split-finger/changeup.

Lou Pinella recently called Samardzija the club’s “sixth starter”, suggesting that the 24 year-old could be headed for AAA to stay stretched out if he doesn’t claim the fifth-starter’s role. Opinions of Samardzija’s future role (starter? reliever?) and ultimate level of success diverge wildly. Some feel (and perhaps justifiably so) that the power righty is still relatively new to the craft, having split his time in college between two sports. Others look at his mixed track record and big bonus, concluding that the Cubs spent grandly for a raw pitcher in his mid-20’s. Given Samardzija’s progress this past season, he’s certainly worth keeping an eye on as the season unfolds.

Gaudin, soon 26, has really been around for a useful pitcher in his mid-20’s. Originally selected by the Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays in the 34th round of the 2001 draft, Gaudin has since been involved in three trades (including last summer’s Rich Harden swap), passing through Tampa, Toronto, Oakland and Chicago. The chances of Gaudin earning the job are very remote (he appears headed for the bullpen), but he did make 34 starts for the A’s back in 2007. The results were mixed, as he posted rates of 6.95 K/9 and 4.52 BB/9, with a 4.69 FIP. The 5-10, 188 pounder is coming off of his best season in the majors. In 90 frames out of the ‘pen for the A’s and the Cubs, Gaudin whiffed 7.1 batters per nine innings while keeping his walks in check (2.7 BB/9). Gaudin provides adequate coverage in the event of an injury.

The thing to keep in mind with all of Chicago’s fifth starter candidates is that each could end up seeing some starts at some point during the season. Teams never go through an entire year using just their top five guys; often, upwards of ten hurlers will take the mound to start a game. Chicago in particular could need such depth: Rich Harden is exceptionally talented but notoriously frail, and Carlos Zambrano is starting to show some signs of fatigue from a heavy workload at a young age.

While the Chicago Cubs have made some curious decisions this offseason, the club still enters spring training as the overwhelming favorites in the National League Central. Fresh off of a 97-win season backed up by their runs scored/allowed total (+184 runs), the Cubs are projected to claim victory 96 times in 2009, per Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system.

While spots one through four will in Chicago’s rotation be filled by Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster and Rich Harden, several arms will duel for the fifth slot this spring. Sean Marshall, Aaron Heilman, Jeff Samardzija and Chad Gaudin will all likely receive some degree of consideration for the job. First, let’s profile Marshall and Heilman.

Marshall, 26, is said to be the favorite to round out the rotation. The lanky lefty was recently tabbed by Cubs skipper Lou Pinella as the 5th man heading into camp. Selected out of Virginia Commonwealth in the 6th round of the 2003 amateu draft, Marshall comes at hitters with about as eclectic a mix of pitches as you’re going to find. Marshall supplements a tame 87-88 MPH fastball with a slow low-70’s curve, a mid-80’s cutter/slider and a changeup.

The 6-7, 220 pounder has tossed 294.1 career innings in the majors, posting a 4.97 FIP, 6.18 K/9 and 3.58 BB/9. Marshall is coming off of his most positive experience in the big leagues, as he struck out nearly eight batters per nine, walked about 3.2 and compiled a 4.39 FIP in 65.1 innings in 2008. Interestingly, Marshall has changed his pitching approach considerably since his first trial with the Cubs in 2006. Back then, he used his fastball about 52% of the time while also pulling out his changeup about 21%. In ’08, he used his heater just 38% of the time, with a changeup utilized just five percent. Marshall has filled the gap with more cutters and curves. There’s little upside here, but the five-pitch southpaw could enjoy a lengthy career as a swingman/innings-eater type.

Heilman, the erstwhile Mets reliever who spent a few days as Mariners property this offseason, has gone on the record as saying that he would like to start. However, his qualifications for such a role are not immediately apparent. From 2005-2007, the Notre Dame product had a good deal of success in Queens, though his FIP did rise each season (2.97 in ’05, 3.28 in ’06, 3.86 in ’07). As a fastball/changeup reliever, Heilman was an asset. In 2008, however, Heilman began messing around with a slider, perhaps in an attempt to show that he had the three-pitch mix to go out there every fifth day.

While it’s hard to say for sure whether Heilman’s experimentation led to his struggles, his performance did head south. He struck out nearly nine-and-a half batters per nine innings, but Heilman’s walk rate soared (5.45 BB/9), he gave up a few more flyballs (his GB% fell about five percent to 40.8%) and he surrendered 1.18 HR/9. The end result was a mild 4.91 FIP. The Cubs essentially swapped both Felix Pie and Ronny Cedeno to acquire Heilman’s services. That’s quite the price to pay for a good, not great reliever or a kinda-sorta-rotation candidate.

Some thought the A’s were selling high when they traded Dan Haren to the Diamondbacks following the 2007 season. He was coming off a season in which he set career bests in wins (15), ERA (3.07) and strikeouts (192). However, Haren had a FIP 63 points higher than his actual ERA and in the second half of 2007 he fell from a 2.30 ERA to a 4.15 mark. Additionally, many felt Haren was the beneficiary of both his home park and the A’s strong defense.

But Haren went out and pitched even better in 2008. He set career bests in wins (16), strikeouts (206) and WHIP (1.130) while his ERA (3.33) was the second-best mark of his career. Many now consider Haren one of the best starters in the game and he ranks in the top 10 in most lists of starting pitchers. His latest ADP is 55 according to Mock Draft Central.

Despite Chase Field being a good hitter’s park, Haren pitched just as good last year at home as on the road. He is young, durable and has a fine assortment of pitches. Last year Haren threw more cutters, giving batters another weapon to fear.

The projection systems agree with popular opinion, as they show Haren in the top 10 among starting pitchers in all four fantasy categories. Haren looks to be one of the safest pitchers around, as there are neither injury concerns nor any unprecedented inning totals warnings surrounding him. Also adding to his attractiveness as a fantasy player is the expected comfort from a new contract and additional familiarity with his surroundings in the National League.

If anything, fantasy owners may be undervaluing Haren relative to his starting pitcher peers in current mock drafts.

Over the next week, I am going to run a series of “Position Battles” articles, examining some of the more intriguing fights for everyday jobs that will be taking place during spring training. So far, here’s the list:

-Cleveland’s rotation
-Washington’s OF/1B glut
-Yankees’ CF job
-Minnesota’s OF
-Cubs’ 5th starter
-Mets’ fifth starter
-White Sox’ 2B

If there are any other position battles that you would like me to take a look at, please feel free to suggest them in the comments section.

Today, we’re going to kick things off with the back of the Cleveland Indians’ rotation. Despite the immaculate campaign turned in by lefty Cliff Lee (2.83 FIP, 5/1 K/BB ratio), the Tribe’s starting corps was a middle-of-the-pack outlet in 2008. Cleveland’s starters ranked 8th in the American League in team FIP (4.30), as ’07 ace Fausto Carmona dealt with injuries and a subsequent loss of command, and dependable mid-rotation cog Jake Westbrook fell victim to Tommy John surgery.

The Indians posted 84 third-order wins in ’08 in an AL Central Division where the highest total was Chicago’s 88. With no team in the Central appearing to have a clear upper hand, Cleveland might just be the favorites to snag a division title at this point: Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system projects an 83-79 season for the club, without another AL Central team reaching the .500 mark. If the Tribe are going to get back to October baseball, they will need to conjure up a suitable back of the rotation from a list that offers quantity, but varying quality.

As things currently stand, Lee and Carmona are the only starters who can be marked down in permanent ink. The third man, according to Cleveland’s official depth chart, is none other the Carl Pavano (assuming he hasn’t been injured since the end of this sentence). The much-maligned former Yankee inked a one-year, $1.5 million deal this winter, with over $5M in possible incentives. The last time Pavano threw 100 innings (heck, the last time he threw more than 34 innings) was 2005. The 33 year-old made 7 starts for the Bombers last year, posting a 5.37 FIP. Pavano has never been a high-strikeout hurler (career 5.75 K/9), but he fanned less than four batters per nine innings in 2008. His fastball velocity, about 90 MPH in prior years, was down to 88 MPH. Even if Pavano is physically sound (no sure bet, obviously), you’ll probably want to look elsewhere for rotation help.

Former Cardinals golden boy Anthony Reyes is currently penciled into the fourth slot. The former USC product, acquired last summer for reliever Luis Perdomo, has a sustained track record of success in the minors but has thus far failed to stay out of the trainer’s room. Reyes punched out 9.46 batters per nine innings in the minors, walking a solid 2.15 per nine as well. The problems for Reyes seem to be two-fold: one, he seemingly prefers to work up in the zone with his 90 MPH heater, which can lead to some souvenirs being deposited in the bleachers (1.38 HR/9 in his major league career). There’s no way to know for sure, but some have suggested that Reyes’ falling out with St. Louis’ pitching coach Dave Duncan stemmed from Duncan’s preference for a two-seamer while Reyes preferred to continue using the four-seamer.

The flat-billed, high-socked 27 year-old also has a delivery that some believe is detrimental to his long-term health. Via Driveline Mechanics, here’s Kyle Boddy’s take on Reyes’ mechanics:

“As you can plainly see (I slowed it down to make sure), Reyes still gets his elbow way up there in hyperabduction and takes his elbow well behind the acromial line in forced horizontal shoulder abduction. What I didn’t notice before is a bad grab (tension in the wrist) and an absolutely terrible followthrough – look how he slams the brakes on his arm after he releases it!”

Reyes’ delivery puts an undue amount of stress on his shoulder and elbow. Boddy then goes on to list the litany of injuries that Reyes has endured:

“2004: Missed two months to shoulder tendinitis.
2005: Missed two weeks to a sprained acromioclavicular (AC) joint.
Mid-2008: Missed two weeks with an elbow injury.
Late 2008: Missed the rest of the regular season with an elbow injury. “

Reyes is someone to keep an eye on, but his homer-happy tendencies and lengthy injury history may preclude him from ever making good on the promise he showed as a Cardinals farm hand.

Left-hander Aaron Laffey currently fills the fifth spot for the Tribe. 24 in April, Laffey blows no one away with his stuff: the 2003 16th-rounder threw his fastball at an average velocity of 86.6 MPH in 2008, supplementing the modest sinker with a high-70’s slider and low-80’s changeup. In 25 careers starts between the ’07 and ’08 seasons, Laffey has posted a 4.48 FIP, relying on good control (2.71 BB/9) and groundball tendencies (54.9 GB%) to counteract few missed bats (4.28 K/9).

Earlier this offseason, Peter Bendix put Laffey under the microscope and concluded that the 6-0, 185 pounder could be an adequate solution in the back of a fantasy rotation. A guy who puts the ball in play as often as Laffey is no sure thing, but his control/groundball combo makes the low K rate a little easier to swallow. Keep an eye on Cleveland’s infield situation: a worm-killer like Laffey would benefit most if new Indian Mark DeRosa were installed at second, shifting plus defender Asdrubal Cabrera to shortstop and Jhonny Peralta to third.

A southpaw plucked out of UCLA in 1st round of the 2006 draft, David Huff might possess the most long-term potential of Cleveland’s plethora of back-rotation candidates. Huff is fresh off a 2008 season in which he tore through AA and AAA, and he’s knocking on the door step of the big leagues. With Akron (AA), the 6-2 lefty punched out 62 batters in 65.2 innings (8.5 K/9), also showcasing sharp control with 1.92 BB/9. Bumped up to Buffalo, Huff owned the International League, striking out 9.04 hitters per nine innings with 1.67 BB/9. The former Bruin doesn’t quite have the knock-out scouting reports to go with those superb numbers, but his stuff is quite solid: per Baseball America, Huff supplements an 87-92 MPH fastball with a plus changeup, an improved slider and the occasional curveball.

Jeremy Sowers might be the most familiar name on this list, though his chances of cracking the starting rotation appear quite grim. The finesse lefty has posted a FIP in excess of five in the big leagues in ’07 and ’08, and even his 2006 showing that got people talking (3.57 ERA) produced just a 4.57 FIP. Sowers is basically Aaron Laffey without the groundballs. At best, he’s an adequate fifth starter in the majors.

Like Sowers (Vanderbilt), Scott Lewis is a southpaw out of a major college program (Ohio State). Despite rather modest stuff (mid-80’s fastball, mid-70’s slider, low-70’s curve, high-70’s change), Lewis has posted some wacky minor league stats. The former Buckeye struck out about 7.5 batters per nine innings between AA and AAA last season, walking scarcely a batter per nine to boot. Before you get too excited, do keep in mind the aforementioned scouting reports, his health history (Tommy John surgery, biceps tendinitis) and Lewis’ flyball tendencies. I took a gander at Lewis earlier this offseason:

“So, what can we expect of Lewis in 2009 and beyond? His minor league track record is quite good, but we are also talking about a guy who throws 87 MPH on a good day, with flyball tendencies to boot. Will hitters continue to flail at Lewis’ changeup, or will they learn to lay off of it and make him use his mild heater? Will the home run bug bite him at the highest level of competition? Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system offered an eclectic mix of possible outcomes for Lewis’ career before last season. Among Lewis’ most comparable players were Ted Lilly and Randy Wolf on the positive side, and Casey Fossum on the opposite end of the spectrum. It’s probably best to take a wait-and-see approach with Lewis in 2009. Finesse, flyball lefties generally don’t fare well in the DH league.”

Zach Jackson, yet another lefty, is an ostensible candidate for a starting job. However, you probably want to avoid this one: an extra chip tossed in to the CC Sabathia deal, Jackson has posted a FIP around 4.50 over the past few years in AAA, with few K’s and just average control.

Some of you are probably wondering, “where’s Adam Miller?” For pragmatic reasons, I decided to not include him. Everyone knows the drill with Miller by now: blistering, mid-90’s heat, a devastating slider and a maddening propensity to get hurt: elbow and finger maladies limited Miller to 65.1 innings in 2007 and just 28.2 frames in 2008. Cleveland seems intent on keeping the 24 year-old in the bullpen as a means of self-preservation. If healthy, Miller could become dominant in a late-inning role.

Overall, the Indians have a bunch of contenders for those last three spots, though just how many quality options the club possesses remains to be seen. While a few of these guys might end up in the bullpen or AAA for the time being, it’s possible that most will see significant action, given the injury concerns with Pavano and Reyes. If Cleveland is to return to the postseason in a wide-open division, they’ll need a few of these guys to step up and provide value behind Lee and Carmona.

With Javier Vazquez now residing in Atlanta and Jose Contreras (achilles) likely on the shelf for at least the first half of the season, the Chicago White Sox entered the winter looking to fill two spots in the club’s rotation. One of those openings will at least temporarily be occupied by oft-injured Bartolo Colon, but the competition for the fifth slot remains wide open. The candidates for the job: Clayton Richard (check out Richard’s piece here), Jeffrey Marquez, Lance Broadway and Aaron Poreda.

My original plan was to profile each player in an individual post, but rather than boring the reader with lengthy accounts of Marquez and Broadway, I’d like to present the following 2009 forecasts for the two:

Jeffrey Marquez, RHP
Age: 24
CHONE: 92 IP, 6.33 FIP, 4.3 K/9, 3.28 BB/9
PECOTA: not listed on team depth chart

Lance Broadway, RHP
Age: 25
CHONE: 143 IP, 5.80 FIP, 5.29 K/9, 3.71 BB/9
PECOTA: 40 IP, 6.22 ERA, 5.2 K/9, 3.82 BB/9

Suffice it to say, you’re more than likely going to want to avoid both of these fellows. Neither Marquez (5.36 FIP at AAA) nor Broadway (4.89) offer much in terms of upside. Fantasy owners might consider the previously profiled Richard, but most are probably rooting for today’s subject: Aaron Poreda.

While the club has since had a change in philosophy, the South Siders were extremely conservative in the amateur draft during the middle part of the decade. 2005 first-rounder Broadway, as previously mentioned, does not project well into the majors and was ranked as just the 28th-best White Sox prospect by Baseball America. However, Broadway’s brand of mediocrity surpasses the level of production received from right-hander Kyle McCulloch, Chicago’s 2006 first-rounder out of Texas. Unranked by BA, McCulloch struck out less than five batters per nine in AA last season, walking nearly three and a half per nine as well.

Dissatisfied by minimal returns from “safe” college picks the previous two years, the White Sox attempted to hit a home run in 2007 by selecting Poreda. A towering 6-6, 240 pound southpaw out of San Francisco, Poreda was considered less refined than many college products. He pumped easy gas, hitting the upper-90’s with his heater, but the quality of his secondary pitches lagged behind. Here’s BA’s scouting report on Poreda from June 2007:

“Poreda works off the fastball almost as much as UC Riverside’s James Simmons (No. 47), and like Simmons, it’s his only above-average pitch. While his fastball was flat and 89-90 mph in his 2007 opener, he has been consistently in the low 90s since then, touching 96-97 and regularly hitting 94. He throws plenty of strikes (though he lacks true command), and with his 6-foot-6, 240-pound frame, he should prove durable. He doesn’t pitch as downhill as he should at his size, in part because of his low three-quarters arm slot. Poreda’s arm action and lower slot make his breaking ball a fringe-average pitch at best, though it has improved. He has the makings of a changeup but hasn’t thrown it much, sticking to his fastball.”

Poreda began his professional career in Rookie Ball, tossing 46.1 frames for the Great Falls White Sox of the Pioneer League. His easy velocity was no match for that level of competition, as Poreda fanned 48 and walked 10 while posting a 2.06 FIP. Following his impressive debut, the plus-sized lefty was dubbed Chicago’s third-best farm talent. BA noted that while “he’s raw for a college pitcher”, he “could wind up as a bigger version of Billy Wagner coming out of the bullpen.”

White Sox brass must have been plenty impressed with Poreda, as they bumped him up to Winston-Salem of the High-A Carolina League to begin the 2008 season. He performed decently there by limiting the free passes (2.21 BB/9), but his strikeout rate (46 K in 73.1 IP, or 5.65 K/9) was rather low for a guy noted as possessing a high-octane fastball. Poreda’s K rate did rebound upon a promotion to the AA Southern League, as he whiffed 72 batters in 87.2 innings (7.39 K/9) while allowing a 2.26 BB/9. Following the season, BA once again named Poreda as the third-best Pale Hose Prospect (though in a much-improved system).

Aaron Poreda has the highest upside of Chicago’s fifth starter candidates, and it’s not particularly close. However, one has to wonder if the big southpaw is ready for a major league assignment at the point. With scarcely 200 minor league inning under his belt, Poreda has not missed quite as many bats as his power arsenal would suggest, and his slider and changeup largely remain works in progress. Both CHONE (6.09 FIP) and PECOTA (5.74 ERA) suggest that Poreda could be in for a rude introduction if he is shoved up into the fifth slot or placed in the bullpen. The 22 year-old southpaw looks like a fine long-term prospect, but the most reasonable scenario entails the ChiSox deploying Poreda to AAA in order to give him the necessary time to round out his repertoire.

Poreda should certainly be on fantasy radars, but this might be one of those rare cases where owners should root against the top prospect making the club out of spring training. Poreda still has work to do.