Archive for Starting Pitchers

The Philadelphia Phillies’ rotation has been something of a mess in 2009. The defending champs paid Adam Eaton to go far, far away during the spring. Then, projected #2 Brett Myers went down with a hip injury. Cole Hamels missed time with an elbow ailment. Jamie Moyer looked more like a pinata than a pitcher in the early going, though he has since settled down. The Phillies resorted to giving starts to the likes of Chan Ho Park, Antonio Bastardo and Rodrigo Lopez.

With all of those unpleasant developments, the emergence of lefty J.A. Happ couldn’t have come at a more opportune time. In 65.1 innings (10 starts) in the rotation, the 26 year-old Northwestern product has compiled a 3.03 ERA and a perfect 4-0 record. Should we expect Happ to keep the happy times rolling, or is he due for a fall?

J.A.’s peripherals suggest that he’s been more adequate than awesome. With 6.06 K/9, 3.17 BB/9 and a 1.38 HR/9 in the rotation, Happ has a pedestrian 4.85 Fielding Independent ERA. The homer rate looks bloated, but it’s hard to say that the figure should dip much in the coming months. Happ is an extreme flyball pitcher (career 33.6 GB% in the majors) in a ballpark that has inflated home run production by a healthy margin. His home run/flyball rate in the rotation (11.2%) is right around the league average.
Happ has benefitted from plenty of fortunate bounces on balls put in play (.247 BABIP), while stranding an inordinate 88.1% of base runners while in the rotation.

While in the minors, J.A. K’d plenty of hitters with his plus changeup (9.3 K/9 during his minor league career, including 10.1 per nine with AAA Lehigh Valley in 2008). However, Happ also likes to work high in the zone with a fastball that sits roughly 88-91 MPH. Take a look at his Pitch F/X data: his fastball is straight as an arrow (1.8 inches of tailing action in on lefties), with 12.2 inches of vertical break. That above-the-belt approach didn’t cause that much damage in the minor leagues (0.7 HR/9), but Happ has surrendered 1.25 HR/9 during the course of his big league career. J.A. also doesn’t necessarily fit the “finesse lefty” profile, either, as he issued 3.5 BB/9 in the minors (3.52 BB/9 in the majors).

The purpose of this post certainly isn’t to knock Happ; he’s a perfectly useful fourth or fifth starter, and clearly a better alternative to the Kyle Kendrick’s and Park’s of the world. But, it’s probably a good idea not to get too enamored by his fast start as a starter. Heading into the 2009 season, Baseball America said the following about Happ (dubbed the 9th-best prospect in the system): “Happ lacks a standout pitch and doesn’t figure to get all those strikeouts on fastballs as easily in the majors as he did in Triple A…He projects as a fourth starter in the long term.”

That assessment still seems accurate to me. Happ can post a league-average K rate, while handing out a few too many free passes and homers to be more than a good back-of-the-rotation option. ZiPS forecasts a 4.93 FIP for Happ for the rest of the 2009 season. There’s nothing wrong with playing Happ in deeper leagues. Just don’t be totally surprised if some of those bloops evade gloves and the Houdini act with runners on base comes to an end.

Last month, my friend and colleague Derek Carty of The Hardball Times (THT) wrote a provocative article questioning the utility of FIP. Carty wrote, “While the original, underlying premise for FIP is sound, and while it’s absolutely better to use than simple ERA, and while there are certainly uses for FIP in some circumstances, for 99 percent of fantasy purposes, I ignore FIP completely and absolutely.”

Carty proceeded to list pitchers he believed were under and over valued by FIP, mainly due to their HR rate. He suggested that instead of FIP, we use LIPS (Luck Independent Pitching Stats). The problem with LIPS is that it takes a lot of work to calculate and is not freely available on a regular basis.

Since the main beef with FIP is HR rate, it should be relatively similar to use xFIP, a stat invented by THT which they describe as: “Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. This is an experimental stat that adjusts FIP and ‘normalizes’ the home run component. Research has shown that home runs allowed are pretty much a function of flyballs allowed and home park, so xFIP is based on the average number of home runs allowed per outfield fly. Theoretically, this should be a better predicter (sic) of a pitcher’s future ERA.”

As a general rule, most starting pitchers will have a HR/FB rate around 11 percent in a full season’s worth of pitching. However, there are always going to be exceptions to the rule. In 2008, Cliff Lee had the lowest HR/FB rate with a mark of 5.1 percent while Brandon Backe checked in with the highest at 16.1 percent. In 2007, the low was 4.1 percent while the high was 17.7 percent.

So, from a fantasy owner’s point of view, when evaluating pitchers should you look to normalize HR rate and use xFIP or are you just as likely to come out with a correct answer if you use FIP?

Here at the All-Star break, I have gone through and compiled a list of pitchers who have a difference 0.50 or greater between their FIP (taken from FanGraphs) and their xFIP. This list was done by hand, so it is possible I omitted someone by mistake. Please alert me if you come across someone I missed.

We have 34 people with a 0.50 or greater difference between their FIP and xFIP. Unfortunately, these are not all people you would want to have in a standard 12-team mixed league but the vast majority of these are roster worthy.

At the end of the year, I am going to come back to this list and see which one of these metrics was better for fantasy purposes. I am going to take the midpoint between their FIP and xFIP and compare it to their real life ERA in the second half of the season.

Using Greinke as an example, 2.55 is the midpoint between his FIP and xFIP. So, if Greinke’s ERA in the second half is 3.33, I will count that as a “win” for xFIP. On the flip side, if Greinke’s second half ERA is 2.22, I will count that as a “win” for FIP.

I am curious to find out what the raw score will be. My guess is that it will be fairly close to 50-50, with neither metric enjoying a huge advantage. Perhaps more importantly, I will also look to see if either metric does a better job of predicting a certain class of pitcher.

Regardless of what the results are in 2009, it is only one season’s worth of information.

When Dan Haren was shipped from the A’s to the Diamondbacks for a king’s ransom of prospects (Brett Anderson, Chris Carter, Aaron Cunningham, Dana Eveland, Carlos Gonzalez and Greg Smith) in December of 2007, he was already regarded as one of the top starters in the majors. Oakland plucked the right-hander from St. Louis back in 2004 as part of the lamentable (from a Redbirds standpoint) Mark Mulder deal.

In his three seasons wearing green and gold, Haren posted FIP’s of 3.89, 4.12 and 3.70. Haren accumulated an average of 4.3 Wins Above Replacement, and his performance was worth a total of nearly $49 million to the A’s. From 2005-2007, his strikeout-to-walk ratio was a robust 3.47-to-one.

As it turns out, Haren was just getting started. Check out his numbers since heading to the desert:

2008: 216 IP, 3.01 FIP, 5.15 K/BB
2009: 130 IP, 2.70 FIP, 8.06 K/BB

The shaggy righty was worth 6.4 WAR in 2008 ($28.8M on the free agent market), and he’s on pace to obliterate that total with 4.3 WAR already in 2009. He has basically morphed from an All-Star level starter to some Curt Schilling-esque control deity.

Haren has always possessed a deep mix of pitches, but there’s really no telling what he’ll chuck to hitters these days. In his first year with Oakland back in 2005, Haren threw his fastball 59.2% of the time. This season, he has only called on the heater 47.6%. That 91 MPH offering has been dominant (tops among all starters at +2.47 runs/100 pitches; knuckleballer Tim Wakefield is a very distant second at +1.57). But that’s just the opening act for Haren:

86.7 MPH cutter (thrown 19.6% of the time): +2.67 runs/100

78.3 MPH curveball (thrown 20%): +0.13

85.3 MPH splitter (thrown 12.8%): +2.24

Haren’s cutter ranks 4th among qualified starters in total run value at +9.8 runs (a counting stat, compared to the rate stat of runs/100; some guys at the top of the leader board have high runs/100 values but pretty much never throw the pitch in question). His splitter checks in at number two in total run value, at +5.4. In other words, Mr. Haren has three out pitches (fastball, cutter, splitter), with a league-average curve in his back pocket for good measure.

Want to see confusion in the batter’s box personified? Take a look at Haren’s plate discipline stats sometime. In 2005, his Outside-Swing% was 24.1%, close to the MLB average. Hitters have chased Haren’s stuff out of the zone about 30% of the time during his Arizona tenure. His overall contact rate sat around 80% during his time with the A’s (right around the MLB average), but it’s down to 74.7% in 2009.

Haren’s First-Pitch Strike% is up nearly 10 percent since his Oakland days (from 59.2% in 2005 to 68.3% in 2009; the MLB avg. is 58 percent). Opposing batters are also more timid when it comes to taking a hack against pitches within the zone, as Danny’s Z-Swing% (pct. of pitches swung at within the strike zone) has dropped from 68% in ’05 to 62.7% in 2009 (the MLB average is about 66 percent).

Dan Haren is awesome. I know this is not a particularly shocking conclusion: everyone knows he’s great. But I’m not sure that most realize just how great Haren has become. The 28 year-old deserves a prominent place in the discussion of baseball’s best starter.

Here is the latest update to Week 14 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

ANA – Lackey
TB – Shields
WSX – Buehrle
CUB – Dempster
ARZ – D. Davis
SEA – Bedard
OAK – Braden
TEX – Padilla
STL – Wellemeyer
OAK – B. Anderson
TOR – Mills

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

TB – Garza
LAD – Kuroda
WSX – Contreras
SEA – Vargas
OAK – G. Gonzalez
TEX – Holland

Lackey has a career high .337 BABIP and a career low 69 percent strand rate. But he has gone seven or more innings in seven of his last eight starts and has two home starts this week.

Shields also gets two home starts this week. He has 4 W and a 3.18 ERA at Tropicana Field this year. He has very similar rate stats to a year ago but in 2008 he averaged 4.92 runs per game and went 14-8. This year he receives 4.11 runs per game and his record is 6-6.

Buehrle has a .260 BABIP and a 78.4 percent strand rate. That’s led to a 4.09 FIP compared to a 3.09 ERA and an overall record of 8-2 despite HR, SO and BB rates the same or worse as last year’s 15-12, 3.79 ERA season.

Dempster has been unable to repeat the magic from his 2008 season. He is still performing at better than his career averages in most metrics but the 32-year old is a .500 pitcher. His fastball, which was such a good pitch for him last year, checks in at -10.4 according to Pitch Type Values.

Davis gets two home starts which is normally a good thing. But the big lefty is just 1-5 in Chase Field this year, where he has allowed eight of his 11 home runs.

Bedard is slated to return on Tuesday after missing a month with a sore shoulder. He threw a simulated game on Friday and Seattle manager Don Wakamatsu was impressed with the results of the 54-pitch outing.

Braden has gone at least five innings in each of his 17 games this season. He changes speeds, keeps the ball in the park (0.59 HR/9) and does not hurt himself with walks (2.37 BB/9). Braden’s best pitch is his changeup, which has an average speed over 15 mph slower than his fastball and one that checks in with a 7.8 Pitch Type Value.

Padilla is throwing as hard as ever but has the worst strikeout rate of his career. He has a career average of 6.15 SO/9 and last season posted a 6.68 rate. But in 2009 it is down to a 4.86 mark.

Wellemeyer has a .336 BABIP and it is lefty batters doing most of the damage. LHB have a .342/.417/.595 mark against him this year. Batting against Wellemeyer turns the average lefty batter into Prince Fielder. But oddly enough, Fielder has a .200/.333/.200 line against Wellemeyer this season in six at-bats.

Anderson averages 91.8 mph with his fastball but his slider is his best pitch. Anderson throws his slider 31 percent of the time, which would be the sixth-highest figure in MLB if he had enough innings to qualify.

Mills has had good strikeout numbers throughout the minors and in his brief major league career. But he is hardly overpowering, instead he features a changeup as his strikeout pitch. Mills allowed a 43.5 percent fly ball rate at Dunedin last year and it was 48.3 percent when he was promoted to New Hampshire. This year in his brief tenure with Toronto, he has a 74.1 percent fly ball rate.

Philadelphia Phillies fans are a little uneasy these days. Sure, the defending world champs sit atop the NL East standings, but by the narrowest of margins. Florida is just one game out, with New York and Atlanta each three paces back. Jimmy Rollins’ bat has gone the way of Jimmy Hoffa, and-gasp!- ace Cole Hamels holds an unsightly 4.98 ERA.

Before the Philly Phanatic (no doubt frustrated) resorts to another mascot beat down, I come bearing good news on the Hamels front. The 25 year-old changeup artist might have troubling surface numbers, but he’s arguably pitching better than he did during that magical 2008 season. Here are some reasons to believe Philly’s ace is headed for a big second half:

Hamels’ FIP is well below his ERA

Cole has punched out 8.15 batters per nine innings, while issuing just 1.91 BB/9. That 4.28 K/BB ratio has led to a sparkling 3.58 FIP, which ranks 20th among starting pitchers tossing at least 80 innings. Hamels has been victimized by a .371 Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP), the highest mark among starting pitchers by a wide margin (Minnesota’s Kevin Slowey is a distant second, at .352).

The Phillies largely have the same players on hand that let the majors in team Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) in 2008, but they rank more toward the middle of the pack this season (11th). Even if Philly isn’t scooping up balls put in play at least year’s vacuum-like pace, one would expect Hamel’s BABIP to regress heavily in the second half.

Cole’s career BABIP is .297, and flyball pitchers (his career GB% is 40.3%) tend to have lower BABIP figures in general. According to Baseball-Reference, the NL BABIP for flyballs is .222 in 2009, compared to .230 for groundballs. Hamels, by comparison, has allowed a .268 BABIP on grounders and .314 BABIP on flyballs. He is allowing line drives at an elevated clip (25.7%), which in part explains the higher overall BABIP (line drives tend to fall for hits around 73% of the time), but given his strong peripherals it would be difficult to say that opposing batters are squaring up his pitches all that often.

The 1.4 run difference between Hamels’ FIP and ERA is the second-highest among starters. Only Cleveland’s Carl Pavano (5.36 ERA, 3.75 FIP) has more to gripe about in 2009.

Cole’s contact rates are down from last season

Overall, opposing batters have made contact with 76.2% of Hamels’ offerings, below the 80.6% MLB average and slightly lower than last season’s 76.9% mark. On pitches within the strike zone, Hamels’ contact rate is 80.1%. That’s well below the 87.7% MLB average, and more than three percentage points below 2008’s rate (83.4%).

Hamels’ stuff is the same

Here are Hamels’ 2008 and 2009 figures for horizontal (X) and vertical (Z) movement (a positive X number indicates tailing action in on the hands of lefty hitters, while a negative Z number indicates that the pitch breaks downward more than a ball thrown without spin):

(FB=fastball, CH=changeup, CB=curveball)

2008

FB: 1.9 X, 12 Z
CH: 6.2 X, 7.9 Z
CB: -1.7, -4.0 Z

2009

FB: 3.1 X, 12.5 Z
CH: 7.5 X, 8.2 Z
CB: -1.1 X, -4.0 Z

Hamels’ fastball is tailing in on southpaws a little more, but the differential between his fastball and changeup, in terms of horizontal and vertical break, is basically unchanged. The difference in horizontal break between the fastball and changeup was 4.3 inches in 2008, and 4.4 inches in ’09. In terms of vertical movement, the changeup dropped 4.1 inches more than the fastball in 2008, and 4.3 inches in ’09. Velocity-wise, the gap between fastball and changeup was 10.5 MPH in 2008. In 2009, it’s about 9.7 MPH.

This would be a great time to try and pry Hamels away from a vexed owner, who expected big numbers and might be willing to part with him for a lower sum. Hamels is the same superb starter he has always been, and his surface stats should begin to align with his peripherals in the coming months.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 14.

Jose Contreras – In his first five starts of the season, Contreras was 0-5 with an 8.19 ERA. Since then he is 3-2 with a 2.17 ERA and has pitched into the eighth inning in four of his last five starts. Contreras has his highest SO rate (6.18) since 2005 and his walk rate (2.82) is under three for the fourth straight year. His FIP checks in 84 points lower than his ERA. And while his BABIP is a touch low (.285) his 60.4 percent strand rate has room for improvement. Owned in only 25 percent of CBS Sports leagues, Contreras could be a good add for two starts this week.

Jon Garland – A free agent pickup by the Diamondbacks in the off-season, Garland has had a Jekyl-Hyde type season. In road games, Garland has a 2.47 ERA and a 1.275 WHIP. In home games, Garland checks in with a 7.51 ERA and 1.827 WHIP. He has eight starts each home and away. With two home games this week, sit Garland if you can.

Mike Pelfrey – He was very tough in May, with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.200 WHIP. However, June was less kind as he posted a 6.39 ERA in five starts. His last start came Wednesday, the first day in July, and Pelfrey pitched 7.2 innings of scoreless ball along with six strikeouts. Historically, Pelfrey has done his best work in July and August, the only two months in his career where his ERA is below four. He gets two starts at Citi Field this week, where his ERA this year is ¾ of a run lower than his road mark.

Ricky Romero – While the pre-season hype surrounding a rookie Blue Jays pitcher was reserved for Brett Cecil, it has been Romero who has been the biggest contributor. Romero has an impressive 2.54 SO/BB ratio and a very nice 1.24 WHIP. The LHP from California has six straight Quality Starts and is working on a streak of 20 consecutive scoreless innings. Owned in just 22.4 percent of ESPN leagues, check your waiver wire and see if he is available to pick up and insert into your lineup.

Jordan Zimmermann – Our own David Golebiewski has a nice write-up of Zimmermann, one of my favorite rookie pitchers this season. However, you may want to sit him this week if possible. Zimmermann has two road starts in Week 14, and away from Nationals Park he has a 5.40 ERA and a 1.470 WHIP. And not only are they road starts, but Zimmermann will take the mound in Colorado versus the second-highest scoring team in the National League and in Houston, where Minute Maid Park is one of the top HR parks in the majors this season.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 14 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Beckett, Vazquez, Gallardo, J.Johnson, Cain, Hamels, Wainwright, Weaver, Garza, Cueto, Millwood, Kershaw, Jurrjens, Harang, Baker, Pettitte, Happ, Smoltz, Kuroda, Meche, Marquis, Wells, Correia, Washburn, Bergesen, Zito, Hammel, Galarraga, West, Hampton, Vargas, W. Silva, G. Gonzalez, V. Vasquez, Sowers, Holland, Stammen, Chen.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 12 and how they did.

Cahill – Advised to start. W, 6 K, 6.75 ERA, 1.31 WHIP (2 starts)
Cook – Advised to start. 2 W, 8 K 1.20 ERA, 1.00 WHIP (2)
Liriano – Advised to sit. 2 W, 12 k, 3.75 ERA, 1.50 WHIP (2)
Richmond – Advised to sit. W, 3 K, 2.57 ERA, 0.57 WHIP (1)
Wang – Advised to start. W, 7 K, 4.35 ERA, 1.35 WHIP (2)

While no rookie starting pitcher has exploded onto the scene a-la-Dontrelle Willis in 2003, MLB fans have been treated to a steady stream of premium young arms getting their first extended looks in the majors. The Cahill’s, Anderson’s, Porcello’s, Price’s and Hanson’s have all gotten plenty of attention. However, another extremely gifted youngster has largely gone under the radar in our nation’s capital. The Washington Nationals may be plagued by a laundry list of issues, but Jordan Zimmermann ’s starts are turning into must-see TV (well, MLB.TV) for this fan.

Since making his debut April 20th, the Division III Wisconsin-Stevens Point product has posted a 3.55 Fielding Independent ERA (FIP). Zimmermann has punched out an excellent 8.91 batters per nine innings, while limiting the free passes with 2.55 BB/9. Among starters tossing at least 60 innings, the 23 year-old righty has the 23rd-best FIP. His 3.45 K/BB ratio ranks 18th, just ahead of Florida’s Josh Johnson. Yet, Zimmermann’s ERA sits at 4.65. What’s the deal?

Unfortunately, the 6-2, 200 pounder is backed by the worst defensive squad in baseball. The Nationals rank last in team Ultimate Zone Rating and 29th in Defensive Efficiency (the percentage of balls put in play that are converted into outs). While a strikeout pitcher like Zimmermann isn’t as harmed by lousy D (he doesn’t put the ball in play as often), his BABIP sits at .331.

In terms of the things Zimmermann has more direct control over, he has been superb. Opposing hitters have hacked at pitches outside of the strike zone 28.4% of the time (24.9 MLB average). Zimmermann is inducing contact on the first pitch or getting ahead of the batter 0-and-1 often. His First-Pitch Strike% sits at 66.3, well above the 58% MLB average. His rate of first-pitch strikes places 7th among starters tossing at least 60 frames.

Zimmermann also comes equipped with a power pitcher’s arsenal. He utilizes a 93 MPH fastball, hard mid-80’s slider, high-70’s curveball and a mid-80’s changeup. While the fastball (-0.53 runs/100 pitches) and curve (-0.43) have been ordinary, Zimmermann’s slider (+1.65) and changeup (+2.08) have been wicked.

You wouldn’t know it from a cursory look at his numbers, but Jordan Zimmermann has pitched like an ace during his rookie season. He’s striking out nearly a batter per inning, limiting the walks (his 53.4 Zone% is about 4 percent above the MLB average) and possesses stuff that compares favorably to any other rookie in the majors. Time will tell who becomes the most successful out of 2009’s batch of rookies, but Zimmermann is certainly deserving of a place in the conversation.

Here is the latest update to Week 13 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

TOR – Richmond
WAS – Zimmermann
TB – Niemann
OAK – Anderson
HOU – Hampton
WAS – Olsen
SD – Banks

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

TB – Garza
HOU – Moehler
OAK – Gonzalez
WAS – Stammen
SD – LeBlanc

Richmond has bounced back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen his last six outings, with three appearances as each, alternating every other appearance as a starter and reliever. So while he’s listed right now for two starts it is not something you want to necessarily count on.

Zimmermann has a FIP over a full run lower than his ERA. He has been a very good strikeout pitcher, averaging 8.91 K/9 and his BB rate is very low, too, at 2.58 BB/9. He has a .331 BABIP and an unhealthy 24.5 percent line drive rate. When batters do make contact off him, 22 of their 71 hits go for extra bases.

Niemann is really getting hurt by walks. He has a .289 BABIP but a 1.47 WHIP, thanks to a 4.11 BB/9 ratio. On 6/3 he pitched a two-hit shutout with one walk but in his last outing he had four walks in four innings pitched. Lately he has kept the ball in the park. After allowing eight HR in his first nine games, Niemann has not allowed a homer in his last five games, a span covering 24.2 innings.

Anderson has poor overall numbers but it really could be even worse. He has a 1.70 HR/9 and a 59.7 percent strand rate. Batters have a .328 BABIP and a .307 average against him. After Anderson threw seven shutout innings on 6/4, he has an 0-2 record with an 8.59 ERA in his past three games.

Hampton is scheduled to come off the disabled list this week, as he is currently sidelined with a strained left groin. Currently he has a 1.59 K/BB ratio. If he maintains that pace for the rest of the season, it would be his best mark in the category since 1999.

Olsen has not pitched in the majors since May 16th because of shoulder tendinitis. His numbers were poor this year in eight starts in the majors. Four rehab starts in the minors were not any better.

Banks makes his first start in 2009 after making 14 for the Padres in 2008. Banks is not overpowering but the 6’3 righty throws about every pitch in the book. He is interesting simply for the fact that he gets two starts in Petco this week.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 13.

Brian Bannister gets two home starts this week, where he has an ERA over a full run lower than his road mark. The second start of the week also comes during a day game, where Bannister has performed better throughout his career. He has a lifetime 15-6 record in day games.

Kenshin Kawakami has a 3.59 BB/9 mark this season. But in his last seven games he has allowed just 12 walks in 40.2 innings and has thrown 62 percent of his pitches for strikes. In that span he has a 2.88 ERA. Kawakami is day-to-day after getting hit in the shoulder by a line drive in his last outing. Monitor his status and get him active if it looks like he will take the mound this week.

Brandon Morrow has had three starts to stretch out his arm. But this will be a good week to get him out of the lineup as he has to fly cross country to take on the Yankees and the Red Sox on the road. The lineups of those two teams are known for being patient and working the count, not a good sign for a pitcher with a 5.93 BB/9 ratio.

Fernando Nieve has helped keep the Mets alive with wins in each of his three starts. He has an unimpressive 1.44 K/BB ratio and a 91.8 percent strand rate. But his FIP is a solid 3.88 and Nieve has a 13.6 percent LD rate. This year in the minors, he had a 14 percent LD rate. So far, the Mets’ bats have come alive with Nieve on the mound, as they have scored five, six and 11 runs in his three starts. He squares off this week versus Braden Looper and Jamie Moyer, two pitchers with an ERA above five for the season, so his teammates should keep the runs coming for him.

Randy Wolf started the season strong but has had a June swoon. This month he is 0-2 with a 5.74 ERA and only 13 Ks in 26.2 innings. Wolf takes on the red-hot Rockies and the Padres this week. Normally a road start in Petco is a good thing for a pitcher’s numbers, but Wolf is 5-6 with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.348 WHIP in 13 lifetime games in Petco after he was undefeated in four starts in Qualcomm Stadium.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 13 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

J. Santana, Lincecum, Haren, Lester, Carpenter, Lilly, Oswalt, Chamberlain, Floyd, Garza, Harden, Saunders, Jimenez, Nolasco, Duke, Porcello, Blackburn, Wolf, R. Johnson, Halladay (set to be activated from the DL on Monday – get him in the lineup), Arroyo, Blanton, Pavano, Ohlendorf, Padilla, Looper, Richard, Hochevar, Hill, Thompson, Moehler, G. Gonzalez, Geer, Burns, O’Sullivan, Stammen, LeBlanc, Berken.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 11 and how they did.

Correia – Advised to start. W, 12 K, 1.84 ERA, 0.34 WHIP (2 starts)
Meche – Advised to start. W, 7 K, 6.57 ERA, 1.30 WHIP (2)
W. Rodriguez – Advised to sit. W, 12 K, 5.73 ERA, 1.45 WHIP (2)
Wakefield – Advised to start. W, 6 K, 4.26 ERA, 1.26 WHIP (2)
Zito – Advised to start. W, 11 K, 7.59 ERA, 1.50 WHIP (2)

Last evening, Cardinals righty Joel Pineiro put on a pitching clinic that would make Roy Halladay look downright inefficient by comparison. Tossing exactly 100 pitches in a complete game shutout against the Mets, Pineiro pounded the zone for 62 strikes while generating an absurd 22 groundball outs. We’re not yet half way through the 2009 season, yet the former Mariner and Red Sock has already eclipsed his Wins Above Replacement (WAR) total for the last three years combined. From 2006-2008, Pineiro accumulated a total of 2.1 WAR. In ’09, the 30 year-old is already up to 2.5 WAR. That figure places him 13th among all starters.

How has Pineiro gone from roster flotsam to an important member of the Cardinals rotation? By calling upon a bowling ball-like sinker that has opposing batters chopping the ball into the dirt an astonishing 61.3% of the time (Pineiro’s career GB rate is 47.5%). That’s the highest rate of worm killers in the major leagues.

Pineiro’s fastball had long been a below-average offering. According to Fan Graphs’ run value pitch data, Pineiro’s heater has been worth -0.64 runs/100 pitches since 2002. And if anything, that’s understating the pitch’s lack of effectiveness: his fastball was worth -1.48 runs/100 in 2006, -1.19 in 2007 and -1.57 in 2008. In 2009, Pineiro’s fastball has a run value of +0.88 per 100 tosses, a dramatic reversal.

Looking at Pineiro’s Pitch F/X data, the change in his fastball has been dramatic. Take a gander at the horizontal and vertical movement of the pitch over the past three seasons (X is horizontal movement- a negative number indicates movement in on the hands of a right-handed batter. Z is vertical movement. The lower the Z figure, the more downward break on the pitch compared to a ball thrown without spin):

2007: -4.3 X, 9.6 Z
2008: -5.5 X, 7.2 Z
2009: -7.0 Z, 5.3 Z

Pineiro sacrificed fastball speed (from 91 to 88 MPH) for movement, gaining nearly three inches of tailing action in on righties with over 4 more inches of sink. Pineiro has also whipped out an even livelier sinker at times. Pitch F/X shows him throwing a two-seamer 18% of the time, with 9.3 inches of break in on right-handed batters and just 3.7 inches of vertical movement.

The Puerto Rican native is missing next to no lumber (3.88 K/9, the fourth-lowest rate among qualified starters), but he has compensated with nearly spotless control on top of the grounders. Pineiro has issued just 1.17 walks per nine innings, the third-lowest figure among starters. He’s getting ahead 0-and-1 or inducing contact from the get-go: Pineiro’s 66.1 First-Pitch Strike% is well above the 58% MLB average and places fifth among starters.

Joel Pineiro is certainly not a sexy name among fantasy players, given the paucity of strikeouts that he generates. But that doesn’t mean he should be ignored, either. He’s a fundamentally different pitcher than the guy who took the hill in Seattle and Boston, unleashing a nasty sinker, generating weak contact and walking next to no one. Whether he can continue to get this many grounders while issuing so few walks remains to be seen, but Pineiro’s sinker gives him the chance to enjoy a nice second act to his career.

(Quick scheduling note: the “Closer Report”, which has been appearing on Wednesdays, will now be posted on Fridays. Sorry for any inconvenience.)