Archive for Starting Pitchers

Here is the latest update to Week 21 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

HOU – Rodriguez
STL – Pineiro
CHC – Zambrano

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

CHC – Harden

Rodriguez has won seven of his last eight decisions. In that span he has a 2.38 ERA with 23 BB and 63 SO in 72 IP. For the season, Rodriguez’ FIP is nearly a run higher than his ERA due to an 81 percent strand rate. One thing to keep in mind about Rodriguez is that he pitches much better at home despite Minute Maid Park being a hitter-friendly place. Rodriguez is 7-2 with a 1.73 ERA at home compared to a 5-5, 4.21 road mark. Both of the starts for Rodriguez are on the road.

Pineiro and his major league leading 61.1 percent ground ball rate have two home starts this week. After opening the season 6-9, Pineiro is 6-0 over his last nine starts and he pitched well enough to win two other times in that span. Even with his puny SO rate, Pineiro is a must-start now in all leagues, and the two starts this week is a nice bonus.

Zambrano has been on the disabled list with an injured back but is slated to be activated Tuesday following a minor league rehab start where he pitched five scoreless innings and notched five strikeouts. Before landing on the DL, Zambrano was 3-0 in his last five starts with a 2.93 ERA and 26 SO in 27.2 IP. Zambrano has home starts this week against the Nationals and Mets, the two bottom teams in the National League East.

Seen on the face of things, this has not been a great season for Clay Buchholz. Neither his 3.99 ERA nor his 1.70 WHIP is attractive. He’s striking out a minuscule 5.63 batters per nine, which is especially disconcerting given his double-digit minor league strikeout rates. He’s walking 4.7 batters per nine, too. So why the renewed enthusiasm for the young pitcher in some circles?

First, his luck has never been even average in the past two years. Consider that his BABIP allowed for the past two seasons has been .366 and .328 respectively, this despite giving up 20.9% and 17.6% line drive rates in those two seasons. That last line drive rate could even be considered a good one.

To continue the “he’s better than he looks” theme, Clay’s velocity is still on it’s way up, and has increased in all three of his major league seasons. All of his offspeed stuff has rated positively in our linear weight system, and his fastball is improving. Buchholz has also had a good groundball rate that has gotten better progressively.

In fact, Keith Law addressed many of these positives in Buchholz’s game with one question and answer on his August 14 chat on ESPN.com:

Brian (MA)
Is Buchholz’s high gb% this year real? Seems to me his fastball has more sink to it this year, but was wondering your thoughts after seeing him in person.

Keith Law
I only saw one outing but I could believe it. His arm slot was a little lower and his fastball had more life than I’d seen in the past (and it was harder – 92-96).

Reading something like this, and taking into account his last 19 innings, in which he’s given up four earned runs, and had 33 groundballs to 18 flyballs, it seems obvious that we have to consult Pitch F/x to see if something has indeed changed recently.

His arm slot is certainly lower. Compare the release points from this game chart for the August 13 matchup with the Tigers to the same release points from the game chart for his July 22 matchup with the Rangers and you’ll see clearly that his release point is lower.

His usage rate on the fastball has also gone up this year. There might be two schools of thought here. If his offspeed stuff is so good, why use the fastball more? The other is more developmental: if he is to be a good pitcher someday, he’ll have to establish that fastball. At 94 MPH with more horizontal movement this year (up over an inch), Buchholz’ fastball seems to be gaining steam. Perhaps the second school has it correctly.

One thing comes clear if you look at the movement and velocity charts for this pitcher. This is not a complete product. Just look at all the movement changes (every pitch gained or lost around an inch of movement either horizontally or vertically from 2008 to 2009) and the velocity changes (again, every pitch gained almost a mile per hour from 2008 to 2009) and you’ll see that he is still in flux.

Consider his slider. Last year, he showed a 79.8 MPH slider with 0.9 inches of horizontal movement and 5.1 inches of vertical movement. This year that same slider is 84 MPH and has 2.4 inches of horizontal movement and 0.9 inches of vertical movement. Perhaps we are still waiting to see the real Clay Buchholz.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 21

Bronson Arroyo – In his last eight games, Arroyo has seven Quality Starts and a 2.30 ERA. Yet somehow he is only 3-4 in that span. Arroyo has been hurt by the home run ball this year. Overall he has a 1.39 HR/9 and a 13 percent HR/FB rate. But in those last eight games he has allowed just four HR in 58.2 IP. Make sure he is active this week.

Clay Buchholz – In his last three outings, Buchholz has hurled Quality Starts but is only 1-2 in that span. With two home starts this week, look for the strong pitching to continue and expect better luck in the win department for the 25-year old.

Kevin Millwood – On the surface Millwood seems to have a normal, or even below-average HR rate. He has a 1.04 HR/9 mark along with a 9.7 percent HR/FB rate. But he has allowed 11 HR in 69.1 IP in road starts this year. This week he has starts at Yankee Stadium and the Metrodome so keep him on the bench.

Jeff Niemann – It has been a breakout year for Niemann but in the last two months he has started to exhibit some extreme home/road splits. In that span he is 3-0 with a 0.74 ERA and a 0.904 WHIP at Tropicana Field. Meanwhile, on the road he is 1-1 with a 5.52 ERA and a 1.364 WHIP. With two road starts upcoming put him on the bench if you have other options.

Ryan Rowland-Smith – Last year, Rowland-Smith pitched very well down the stretch (2.56 ERA in last eight games) when moved from the bullpen. This year he got caught in a numbers game and spent a lot of time in Triple-A. But he is back in the rotation for the Mariners and has reeled off Quality Starts in three of his last four outings. He is a good candidate to pick up and insert into your lineup for his two starts this week at home versus Oakland and Kansas City.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 21 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

J. Santana, Verlander, Halladay, Lee, Lester, Cain, Wainwright, Gallardo, Haren, Greinke, Weaver, Harden, Kershaw, Jurrjens, Marquis, Blanton, Baker, Chamberlain, Zito, Latos, Meche, Ohlendorf, Masterson, Tillman, Matusz, Hammel, Snell, Parnell, Contreras, West, Mazzaro, Sowers, Suppan, F. Garcia, Balester.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 19 and how they did.

Blackburn – Advised to start. 22.50 ERA, 2 Ks, 3.50 WHIP (2 starts)
de la Rosa – Advised to start. 2 W, 0.68 ERA, 20 Ks, 1.57 WHIP (2)
Lohse – Advised to start. W, 4.76 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.32 WHIP (2)
Rzepczynski – Advised to sit. 4.82 ERA, 1 K, 1.82 WHIP (2)
Sanchez – Advised to start. 4.50 ERA, 13 Ks, 1.33 WHIP (2)

In two-plus years with the Giants, Barry Zito has been a major disappointment. Forget his massive salary, Zito has a 29-41 record with a 4.72 ERA. The primary catcher for Zito in San Francisco throughout his tenure in the National League is Bengie Molina. It has been suggested more than once that Molina is part of the problem with Zito’s performance, yet he has been behind the plate for 15 of Zito’s 24 starts this season, including eight of his last 10 outings.

Giants manager Bruce Bochy is a former catcher and he should be uniquely qualified to assess how important the individual pitcher-catcher relationship is, one that takes on even greater importance for the club this season as it battles for a Wild Card berth in the playoffs. That Bochy continues to write Molina’s name in at catcher with Zito on the hill tells us his opinion of the matter.

There is no easy way to determine if Molina is hurting Zito because there are so many factors to consider. One of the hardest things to combat is the sample-size problem, especially with the Giants’ preference to have Molina behind the plate as often as possible.

The biggest sample we have is the games pitched by Zito throughout his major league career. There are six catchers who have caught him at least 15 times. Here are the rate stats for those who have caught Zito the most in the majors:

Among the catchers who have caught Zito the most, Molina does not fare very well in any of our categories. But this could easily be because Molina is catching Zito when he is no longer an elite, or even above-average pitcher. To get a better idea we are going to have to compare Molina to the other catchers on the Giants.

So far in his career for San Francisco, Zito has pitched 90 games. Molina has been behind the plate in 65 of those games, or 72 percent. Here is how Zito has fared with Molina behind the plate compared to all of the other catchers Bochy and the Giants have used since 2007:

Molina: 20 W, 33 L, .261/.347/.421 1.45 SO/BB, 32.41 AB/HR
Others: 9 W, 8 L, .242/.315/.366 1.66 SO/BB, 45.75 AB/HR

Here are the breakdowns for the other Giants catchers besides Molina when Zito is on the mound:

In extremely small samples, Zito has appeared much more like the pitcher he was in Oakland with Sandoval or Rodriguez behind the plate. Unfortunately for the Giants, Rodriguez is now in the Baltimore organization.

Bochy and the Giants have apparently made the decision that Sandoval will not be catching anymore. It would be thinking way outside the box for the Giants to take their starting third baseman and make him Zito’s permanent personal catcher but at this point, that may be their best option to get the most value out of Zito going forward.

It is hard to blame the Giants for wanting no longer to expose Sandoval to the rigors of catching. But it is time to pull the plug on Molina being the primary catcher for Zito because the results are simply no good. Zito has a .377 winning percentage in 53 decisions with Molina behind the plate. This is one time where we have enough data to draw a firm conclusion.

Throughout it all, Zito has taken the high road. He has expressed a willingness to continue with Molina as his primary catcher, despite the less than stellar results when the two work together.

But this is a case when the manager has to step in for the good of the team. With the playoffs in the balance and Zito on the mound, Bochy simply cannot put Molina behind the plate if he wants to give his team its best shot to win. Molina should be working out at first base so that Bochy has the option to keep his bat in the lineup when Zito pitches.

Here is the latest update to Week 20 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

TOR – Romero
DET – Porcello
LAD – Haeger

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

DET – Verlander
TOR – Richmond
LAD – Jeff Weaver

Romero just finished a five-game stretch where he walked 14 batters in 28.2 innings and had a 5.65 ERA yet had a 3-2 record. In his last game he got a no-decision after allowing three runs in six IP versus the Yankees. Overall, an 80.5 percent strand rate has led to a 3.70 ERA compared to a 4.41 FIP. But Romero has been a bit unlucky with his HR/FB rate of 14.7 percent. Fortunately, he is a ground ball pitcher, with a 1.78 GB/FB ratio. That is the eighth highest GB ratio among qualified major league pitchers.

Porcello has a 3.81 ERA and a 1.288 WHIP in road starts this year compared to a 4.92 ERA and 1.528 WHIP in Comerica Park. Additionally, his SO/BB numbers are over twice as high on the road, where he sports a 2.29 mark in the category. This week he has both a home start (vs SEA) and a road game (at OAK). Porcello is 7-0 this year in games in which he has not allowed a HR. But he has allowed 17 HR this year and has a 16.7 HR/FB mark.

Haeger has allowed 26 BB in 34 IP in his brief major league career. This year the knuckleball specialist is 11-6 with a 3.55 ERA at Triple-A Albuquerque, where he is currently tied for the Pacific Coast League lead in wins and is eighth in ERA. He has a 3.61 BB/9 ratio this season in the PCL, continuing a trend of declining walk numbers one step beneath the majors. His walk numbers the previous three seasons in Triple-A: 2006 (4.13), 2007 (4.08) and 2008 (3.89).

It is a three Hernandez and two Martinez week! Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 20

Fausto Carmona – Since returning from the minors, Carmona has pitched well, with a 2.65 ERA in three starts. But he has allowed more walks (10) than strikeouts (7), his WHIP checks in at 1.588 and his record is 0-1. If those are the numbers he puts up when he is pitching well, what happens with a bad outing or two? Leave him on the bench for his two starts this week.

Manny Parra – It is tough to win games with a 1.84 WHIP yet that is exactly what Parra is doing. He has won his last four starts despite a 6.48 ERA. Unless you are desperate for wins, they are simply not worth the ratios. And with those ratios there is little chance that the wins will continue to follow.

Oliver Perez – Before being sent to the minors, Perez had a 9.97 ERA in five games. Since returning he has posted a 3.72 ERA in seven games. With Perez you are sure of two things: his WHIP is going to be terrible and he is going to pile up strikeouts (38 in 38.2 IP in his last seven games). His ERA has been acceptable since returning so the wild card is his wins total. In his last three starts he left the game with the lead only to see the bullpen blow wins for him. Perez does well against lefty-heavy lineups and this week he faces the Braves and the Phillies. He has won six of 10 career decisions versus Atlanta and Philadelphia features lefty swingers Utley, Howard and Ibanez. Put him in your lineup this week if you can take the WHIP damage.

David Price – The HR rate has really hurt Price this season, especially on the road. He has allowed 13 HR this year and nine of those have come away from Tropicana Field. In home games, Price is 5-1 with a 2.72 ERA and a 1.286 WHIP. Make sure he is active this week with home starts against Baltimore and Texas.

Scott Richmond – Before going to the disabled list with shoulder tendinitis, Richmond was pitching his best ball of the season, going seven or more innings in his last three starts before hitting the DL. His first start back was rough and then he allowed 3 ER in 6 IP his last outing in Yankee Stadium. Richmond has a tough start versus Josh Beckett this week, but I still like him as a two-start pitcher this week with his two home games.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 20 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Lincecum, Beckett, F. Hernandez, Burnett, Verlander, Carpenter, Jimenez, Nolasco, Lowe, Hanson, Buehrle, Dempster, Scherzer, Billingsley, E. Santana, Feldman, Hunter, Norris, Liriano, Pavano, Garland, P. Martinez, Lilly, Bannister, Correia, L. Hernandez, Villanueva, Hart, Bailey, Mazzaro, D. Hernandez, Bell, Jef Weaver, Boggs, J. Martinez, Stammen, Carrillo, Berken.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 18 and how they did.

Baker – Advised to start. W, 4.76 ERA, 7 Ks, 1.15 WHIP (2 starts)
Latos – Advised to start. 2 W, 2.08 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.15 WHIP (2)
Morton – Advised to start. 4.09 ERA, 5 Ks, 1.55 WHIP (2)
Penny – Advised to sit. 7.50 ERA, 5 Ks, 1.33 WHIP (1)
Wells – Advised to sit. W, 4.26 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.42 WHIP (2)

For most pitchers, reaching the latter stages of one’s career entails making concessions to Father Time. That fastball doesn’t hop quite as much as it used to, so it’s probably time to stop challenging hitters up in the zone so often. The slider doesn’t snap like it did in the good old days, so perhaps it’s time to try and add a new pitch to the ol’ bag of tricks.

That’s the deal for most pitchers. John Smoltz took that axiom and turned it right on its head. The 6-3, 220 pound right-hander crushed opposing hitters for years in the Atlanta Braves rotation, and he was still going strong at 32 years old with the Braves back in 1999 (186.1 IP, 3.14 Fielding Independent ERA). He had, however, become increasingly fragile, and his health issues came to a crescendo prior to the 2000 season when he was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery.

Upon returning in 2001, Smoltz transitioned to the bullpen in an attempt to stay off the D.L. This kick-started a new era in his career, as he began a four-year run of dominance out of the ‘pen:

Win Probability Added totals, 2001-2004:

2001: 1.61
2002: 4.67
2003: 3.29
2004: 4.93

It’s not like Smoltz was forced to finesse his way through lineups in the ninth inning, a la Ryan Franklin. He was still dealing, sitting between 95 and 97 MPH with his fastball, snapping off wicked high-80’s sliders and high-80’s splitters that plummeted upon reaching the plate.

That Smoltz was still mauling hitters at age 37 was extraordinary enough. But he then went back in the rotation, topping 200 innings each season from 2005-2007 while posting FIP’s of 3.27, 3.44 and 3.21, respectively. His heater sat around 93, and the slider and splitter were still sharp. 2008 did not go nearly as well, as Smoltz suffered a shoulder injury that shelved him for most of the season.

He made a brief comeback as a reliever, only to blow a save opportunity and opt for season-ending surgery in June. When he was able to take the mound, Smoltz managed to punch out 36 batters in 28 frames, issuing 8 walks and surrendering 25 hits.

Over the off-season, the 42 year-old inked a one-year, incentive-laden deal with the Red Sox. He continued to mend the shoulder, taking an extended rehab assignment (27.1 IP, 21/4 K/BB between Greenville, Portland and Pawtucket) before making his Sox debut on June 25th vs. the Washington Nationals.

Upon first glance, Father Time appears to finally snatched away Smoltz’s ability to blow away hitters at the highest level. He made 8 starts for Boston, getting bombarded for an 8.38 ERA and a 2-5 record in 40 innings pitched. That’s the sort of line that would make Adam Eaton and Sidney Ponson giggle. The Red Sox designated Smoltz for assignment recently, ending the reclamation project of the former Cy Young award winner. Surely Smoltz is done, right?

I’m not so sure. Assuming that Smoltz wishes to continue his career elsewhere, he may still have something to offer. Despite the horrific ERA, John managed to strike out 7.43 batters per nine innings, while issuing 2.03 BB/9. However, a .390 BABIP, an inflated HR/FB rate (14.8%) and an uncharacteristically low 56.9% rate of stranding runners have conspired to make Smoltz look like a pinata.

Smoltz’s stuff, while not vintage, looked good enough to combat most lineups. His fastball sat at 91 MPH (down a tick from the previous few years), with an 85 MPH slider and splitter (he also tossed an occasional high-70’s curveball).

Smoltz’s plate discipline stats suggest that hitters still found that mix difficult to handle at times. He managed a 33.1 Outside-Swing% (30.6 O-Swing% since 2002). Opponents made contact with a few more pitches placed within the strike zone (87.9%, right at the MLB average and 3.8% above his overall rate since 2002). It’s not like batters were roping every pitch he threw: his 18.1% line drive rate was actually below his marks from 2005-2007.

The dichotomy between Smoltz’s actual ERA and his Expected Fielding Independent ERA (4.37) is massive. Taking only a cursory look at his numbers, Smoltz appears to have a fork sticking out of his the back of his jersey instead of his customary “29.” However, the long-time Brave still appears to have something left in the tank, if teams are willing to look past the grisly superficial stats.

To begin the 2009 season, Baltimore Orioles fans were treated to a starting rotation that included the likes of Koji Uehara, Jeremy Guthrie, Mark Hendrickson, Adam Eaton, Rich Hill, and Alfredo Simon. There is no reason to ask why the club is in last place, 23 games out of first in the American League East.

Guthrie and Uehara have not been terrible. At the age of 30, Guthrie doesn’t really have any upside left but he’s developed into a fairly dependable No. 3 starter. He is exposed, though, if a club relies on him to be a No. 1 or 2 starter, which he’s been in Baltimore. Uehara, who came over from Japan prior to the 2009 season, has a torn flexor tendon in his elbow and hasn’t pitched since June. His numbers weren’t bad prior to the injury but the 34-year-old right-hander was pitching like a No. 4 starter.

As grim as the above information is, the future is extremely bright for the Orioles’ starting pitching staff. Fans in Baltimore have already been treated to the MLB debuts for the club’s top two pitching prospects: Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz. Both players have been roughed up a bit at times – mainly due to a lack of command – but their potential is evident. They project to fill in the top of the Orioles’ starting rotation for years to come.

Brad Bergesen has been a surprise contributor to the rotation this season as a rookie. The right-hander was flying under the radar of prospect watchers but he’s made 19 starts for the club and has allowed 126 hits in 123 innings of work. He has a solid ERA at 3.43, as well as a respectable FIP at 4.08. His walk rate is marvelous at 2.34 BB/9 but his strikeout rate is alarmingly low at 4.74 K/9. Bergesen, though, lives and dies by the ground ball and currently has a ground-ball rate of 50.1%. With a fastball that sits right around 89-90 mph, and a good slider, Bergesen, 23, could fill the No. 4 or 5 starter’s role for the Orioles for quite some time.

Like Bergesen, David Hernandez has also provided more innings for the club than expected in ’09. The right-hander has pitched reasonable well, although he’s been a little too hittable with 60 hits allowed in 52.1 innings of work. His walk rate is OK at 3.61 BB/9 but his strikeout rate is quite low at 4.82 K/9, especially considering that he was averaging K/9 rates of 9.50 to 11.00 in the minors. Hernandez is also an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a ground-ball rate of just 29.3%. His stuff is good, though, as he’s been average around 93 mph on the fastball and he also has a solid slider, and an OK changeup. He could battle Bergesen in the future for a back-of-the-rotation spot with the loser moving to the bullpen.

Rookie Jason Berken has made 14 starts with the Orioles but has an ERA of 6.72 (FIP of 5.01). He’s allowed 89 hits in 69.2 innings of work, while also posting rates of 3.49 BB/9 and 5.04 K/9. His ground-ball rate is just 38.1% and his line-drive rate is 24.2%. Berken is getting hit hard despite a four-pitch mix that includes a fastball that averages 92 mph. The 25-year-old pitcher is probably best suited to bullpen work, but he could become a valuable swing pitcher.

The Orioles club still has two pitchers remaining in triple-A and double-A who should both settle into the MLB rotation within the next year: Jake Arrieta and Brandon Erbe. Matusz jumped over Arrieta after the latter pitcher hit a three-start rough patch in triple-A from July 24-Aug. 3. The right-hander dominated high-A and double-A, but he’s struggled a bit with consistency in triple-A. Regardless, the 23-year-old pitcher has all the potential necessary to be a very good No. 3 starter in the Majors, including low-to-mid-90s fastball, slider, curve and changeup.

Erbe has gotten lost in the shuffle a bit because of a rough 2007 at high-A ball (although he was just 19 years of age at the time). Now 21, the right-hander has been slowed by some injuries this season but he’s been dominant as of late. In his last start against the Jays’ double-A affiliate, he took a no-hitter into the ninth inning. On the season, he has allowed 29 hits in 47.2 innings of work. He also has a walk rate of 3.97 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.55 K/9. Both those rates will surely improve once he gains better command of his pitches, which include a low-to-mid-90s fastball, a plus slider and an OK changeup. Right-handed batters are hitting just .138 against him.

If all goes well, the Orioles rotation could eventually stack up like this:
1. Chris Tillman, RHP, age 21
2. Brian Matusz, LHP, 22
3. Brandon Erbe, RHP, 21
4. Jake Arrieta, RHP, 23
5. Brad Bergesen, RHP, 23

6. David Hernandez, RHP, 24
7. Jason Berken, RHP, 25

For fantasy baseball managers, the Baltimore Orioles’ pitching depth offers some very intriguing options in keeper leagues. For Orioles fans, the above depth chart is exciting news after enduring a very ugly April.

Here is the latest update to Week 19 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

LAD – Wolf
LAD – Kuroda
OAK – G. Gonzalez
SD – Richard
OAK – Cahill
BOS – Tazawa
TEX – Nippert

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

COL – Cook
OAK – Braden
BOS – Smoltz
LAD – Schmidt
SD – Gaudin
TEX – Padilla
SEA – J. Vargas
STL – Boggs

Wolf had a streak of seven consecutive Quality Starts snapped in his last outing, when he allowed four runs in seven innings pitched. Over those last eight games, Wolf has a 3.38 ERA with a 3-to-1 SO/BB ratio and a 1.204 WHIP but he has just a 2-3 record. Wolf has two road starts this week, where he has an ERA a full run lower than he does at Chavez Ravine. His problem in home games is the gopher ball. Wolf has allowed 12 HR in 76 IP at home compared to 6 HR in 71 IP on the road.

Kuroda won his first game in a month his last time out. In his last three outings, Kuroda has 21 Ks in 18 IP. He has been a little unlucky this year with a 62.5 percent strand rate. Kuroda’s FIP checks in at 3.36 compared to a 4.44 ERA.

Gonzalez gave up 11 runs in 2.2 innings on July 20th. In three outings since then he is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA and a 1.071 WHIP. Included in those last three games were matchups in New York and Boston.

Richard has a 3.95 BB/9 ratio for the season. But in his last nine starts he has allowed 17 BB in 45.1 innings. Pitch Type Values shows Richard’s fastball being a good pitch but that he gets in trouble with his slider and his cutter.

Cahill has allowed a HR in nine consecutive starts. He has given up 15 homers in that stretch, including two in each of his last two outings. His HR/FB ratio of 16.6 is the fourth highest mark among pitchers who qualify.

Tazawa made his major league debut and took the loss in the 15-inning game last Friday against the Red Sox. Tazawa was 9-5 in Double-A and 0-2 in Triple-A this year, albeit with a 2.38 ERA and a 0.706 WHIP in those two contests.

Nippert has bounced back-and-forth between the bullpen and the rotation this year for the Rangers. In his last outing, a start, he allowed just one hit in five innings and now seems poised for an extended trial as a starter. Nippert averages nearly 93 miles per hour with his fastball and he also throws a change-up and an occasional curve.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 19.

Nick Blackburn – Earlier this season, I highlighted Blackburn as a guy to sit due to his two road starts. Well, this week he has two home games. In the Metrodome, Blackburn is 5-0 with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.297 WHIP. Make sure he is active for his home games versus Kansas City and Cleveland.

Jorge de la Rosa – He got hammered in his last start in Philadelphia, where he gave up three HR in five innings. But de la Rosa was on fire prior to that, with Quality Starts in his previous six games. Another thing in de la Rosa’s favor this week is that he takes his 8.83 K/9 rate up against two teams in the top half of the league in strikeouts, including the Marlins, who lead the NL with 852 whiffs.

Kyle Lohse – Yes, it is hard to recommend a pitcher who just got roughed up by the Mets but that start was on the road. This week Lohse has two games in Busch Stadium, where he has a 2.98 ERA, a 1.059 WHIP and all four of his wins this season.

Marc Rzepczynski – Usually I hate those nicknames where you take a player’s first initial and then tag on the first few letters of his last name. But in Rzepczynski I think I am willing to make an exception. But keep M-Rzep on the bench this week. Yes, the ERA, K and WHIP all look good so far in his first six starts in the majors. But with road games this week at New York and at Tampa Bay, it is probably wise to get someone else in the lineup this week.

Jonathan Sanchez – Since returning to the rotation the second week of July following two outings in the bullpen, Sanchez has a 3-1 record and a 2.76 ERA in five games. He still has some gopher ball tendencies, but he faces the Dodgers (12th in NL in HR) and Mets (last in NL) this week, two teams not known for their power. Make sure he is active this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 17 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Harden, Jackson, Chamberlain, Floyd, Garza, Danks, Happ, Volstad, Cook, Oswalt, Cueto, Pelfrey, Penny, Porcello, Lannan, Davis, Braden, Smoltz, Schmidt, Ohlendorf, Looper, Guthrie, Gaudin, Padilla, VandenHurk, Gorzelanny, Moehler, French, Laffey, Mitre, O’Sullivan, J. Vargas, Davies, Lehr, Boggs.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 17 and how they did.

Garland – Advised to start. W, 3.00 ERA, 4 Ks, 0.93 WHIP (2 starts)
Hunter – Advised to start. W, 3.75 ERA, 11 Ks, 1.42 WHIP (2)
Marquis – Advised to start. 3.46 ERA, 7 Ks, 1.08 WHIP (2)
Saunders – Advised to sit. W, 6.55 ERA, 4 Ks, 2.00 WHIP (2)
Wolf – Advised to start. 3.75 ERA, 11 Ks, 1.67 WHIP (2)