Archive for Starting Pitchers

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 22.

Jon Garland – After some ugly starts at the beginning of the year in Chase Field, Garland has settled down and been a reliable starter wherever he pitches for the last two-plus months. Since the beginning of July, Garland is 5-4 with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. Get him active for his two home starts this week.

Wade LeBlanc – If you are looking for a waiver addition with two starts this week LeBlanc could be your guy. Owned in just four percent of CBS Sports leagues, LeBlanc has won back-to-back games on the road. He allowed just six hits and two runs in 13 IP. He gets one home start this week in Petco and faces two of the worst teams in the majors in the Diamondbacks and Pirates, neither of which do particularly well against lefties.

Carl Pavano – The overall numbers in 2009 are not great for Pavano but he has been solid in his starts for Minnesota and has hurled Quality Starts in five of his seven outings for the Twins. Since the trade, Pavano is averaging 7.11 K/9 and he has a 1.26 WHIP. He has favorable matchups this week, with a start against Cleveland, the team he began the season with, and a matchup against Jarrod Washburn and the Tigers. Pavano did lose a game against the Indians earlier this month, but he notched 6 Ks in 6 IP in the road outing.

Ian Snell – Since a disastrous start against the Yankees in mid-August, Snell has been a useful fantasy pitcher. He has posted four wins in his last five games, with a 3.33 ERA, although his WHIP (1.48) and Ks (12 in 27 IP) have left owners wanting more. Snell is capable of adding strikeouts, he averaged 7.39 K/9 last year and hit 96 in his last start, and he gets two home starts this week, although one of them is a rematch with New York. Overall, I like his chances this week of picking up a win.

Sean West – The rookie has been solid for the Marlins this season since his promotion in late May. But he has a huge home/road split and this week he has two away games. Five of his six wins have come at Dolphin Stadium. On the road he is 1-3 with a 6.81 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP. With starts this week in St. Louis (against Wainwright) and Cincinnati, leave West on the bench this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 24 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Verlander, Lincecum, Lee, Weaver, W. Rodriguez, Nolasco, Hanson, Dempster, Zambrano, Gallardo, Arroyo, Price, Niemann, Smoltz, Washburn, Duke, Hammel, McCarthy, Gaudin, Suppan, Sowers, Mock, Byrd, Parnell, Tomko, C. Torres, D. Hernandez, Purcey, Wells, Buckner, Berken, Chen.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 22 and how they did.

Cahill – Advised to start. 5.40 ERA, 3 Ks, 1.60 WHIP (1 start)
Richard – Advised to start. 1.35 ERA, 6 Ks, 0.90 WHIP (1)
Sanchez – Advised to sit. 1.50 ERA, 17 Ks, 1.00 WHIP (2)
Wakefield – Advised to sit. 6.00 ERA, 4 Ks, 1.50 WHIP (1)
Washburn – Advised to sit. 12.71 ERA, 2 Ks, 2.12 WHIP (1)

Tuesday night Zach Duke tied a major league record by allowing hits to eight consecutive batters to start the game. The Cubs scored seven runs in the inning en route to a 9-4 laugher. In his last three starts, Duke has allowed 20 runs (18 earned) and watched his ERA climb 64 points.

Prior to this season, Duke had produced a FIP lower than his ERA three straight years. The most common explanation given for this was that the Pirates had a lousy defense. Then this season, Duke got off to a hot start and the improved Pittsburgh defense received a lot of credit.

After his June 2nd start against the Mets, when Duke allowed just one run in seven innings, his record stood at 6-4 with a 2.62 ERA and his name was trotted out as a potential All-Star candidate for the Pirates. He did not make the team initially, but was later selected as a replacement for the injured Matt Cain.

But even back in early June, there were signs that Duke was pitching over his head. Rest of Season ZiPS forecasted him to post a 5-9 record with a 5.11 ERA on June 4th. While there are still three weeks to go in the year, Duke’s record since the win over the Mets is 4-10 with a 5.05 ERA.

The Pirates still have an above-average defense. UZR/150 places them eighth with a 4.3 team mark, one closer to fifth place than ninth. And Duke’s ERA (4.02) still is lower than his FIP (4.38).

Even after his last three brutal starts, Duke has a BABIP 23 points below his career average. His LOB% of 74.3 percent is his best in the majors since his 14-game debut in 2005.

Some will point to the loss of good defensive players like Jack Wilson and Nyjer Morgan contributing to Duke’s slide since early June. Others will note that Duke appeared to take a step forward prior to his last three starts.

Duke has been a better pitcher in 2009. His K/BB ratio of 2.12 is his best mark since 2005. His O-Swing% of 29.9 percent is the seventh-best mark in the majors and a career best. Pitch Type Values shows both his fastball and curve being improved pitches, with his hook going from neutral/below-average offering to a plus pitch.

And with all of that, Duke is still essentially the same pitcher that he was in 2008. A season ago, his FIP was 4.40 and now it is 4.38. His tRA is 5.04 today and was 5.22 last year.

Going forward, can Duke maintain the gains made with his curve? Can he continue his pinpoint control (career-best 2.03 BB/9)? Can he continue to be one of the best pitchers in the game in getting batters chase pitches out of the strike zone? On the flip side, will Duke be able to stem a four-year trend of an increased flyball rate?

Duke has been both fortunate (BABIP, LOB%) and the beneficiary of improved defense. No matter which one you think has played a bigger role, how confident are you that it will be the same in 2010 for him? Just some thoughts to ponder for those of you in deep keeper leagues as you prepare your team for next season.

As the season draws to a close, keeper decisions come to the forefront. After a terrible July (6.88 ERA, 1.56 WHIP) and a mediocre August (4.58 ERA, 1.31 WHIP), owners are probably wondering which way Jered Weaver’s career is going. Is he still on his way up? Is there un-tapped potential here, or is he what he is – a pretty good pitcher with established flaws?

Unfortunately for Weaver, the numbers seem to say that we’ve already seen his best. Though he’s only turning 27 this year, the statistics have been remarkably steady. With over a hundred major league starts under his belt, we’ve also gathered enough information to render a decently-informed decision, too.

Weaver did strike out close to ten per nine in many of his minor league stops, but he’s settled in at around 7.7 K/9 in the major leagues. In fact, in three of his four years, he’s been within .05 K/9 of that number, so consistency actually seems to be a part of the package, too. That strikeout rate is decent and surprisingly puts him at 26th in the major leagues in that category. It’s not a flashy strikeout-leader kind of rate, but it can work for him like it’s worked for Adam Wainwright, who is a good comp in terms of walks and strikeouts (albeit in the weaker league).

Weaver’s low walk rate makes his above-average strikeout rate play better. His first two years, he had a 2.5 BB/9 that would rank in the top 30 of qualified starters. Unfortunately, his control has slid a little and is inching up on three walks per nine over the last two seasons. That has to qualify as a slight concern, because as the strikeouts and walk rates start converging, his effectiveness will decline.

The established flaw in his game may not sound so terrible at first. Weaver is a fly-ball pitcher and is could become more of one as he ages (it’s also the main reason that he doesn’t comp well with Wainwright overall). He debuted with a fly-ball rate over 50%, then improved that number for two years, and is back over 50% again this year. Of course all fly balls are not created equally. Weaver is fourth in the league in infield fly balls, and steadily coaxes between 11 and 14% of his batted balls into the air on the infield.

Those infield fly balls help his home run per fly ball rate (around 8% year-in and year-out) stay under the major league average (10%), and they help mitigate the fact that batters like to put his pitches in the air. Being a fly-ball pitcher is fundamentally weaker than being a ground-ball pitcher, if only because less than 1% of all ground balls end up being home runs. Weaver’s home run rate (1.10 this year) is creeping up, and that stat will only get worse as he ages.

The whole package is obviously effective (he’s been worth over $50 million to the Angels in his four seasons), but the fly ball rate, home run rate, and medium-paced fastball (89 MPH) all stand on the wrong side of the ledger. The four positive pitches (by linear weights), good strikeout and walk rates stand on the positive side and give reason for consistently rosy projections and hope for better work in the future.

However, Weaver seems to have found his particular balance between his strengths and faults. This is who he is, and though he may have an outlier season in him, this is who will be until age gets to him. Age, of course, is always a finger on the negative side of the scale.

Here is the latest update to Week 23 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

NYY – Burnett
TAM – Price
STL – Smoltz
WAS – Lannan
TEX – McCarthy
PIT – McCutchen
CIN – Maloney
KC – Chen

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

KC – Bannister
TEX – Nippert
WAS – Mock
TAM – Sonnanstine
CIN – Lehr
NYM – Misch

Burnett was 10-4 at the end of July but since then has gone 0-4 with a 6.54 ERA and a 1.594 WHIP in seven games. He has allowed six HR in his last three games, two of which were on the road. Burnett has two home starts this week, including a game against the Rays, who are third in the league in homers.

Price has gotten a decision in 13 of his last 14 starts and has gone 6-7 in that span. Five of his six wins have been Quality Starts and he has not allowed more than two runs in those six games. But in the seven losses Price has allowed 33 runs and has just one Quality Start. He has a huge home/road split, with a 6-3 record and a 3.32 ERA at Tropicana Field, compared to a 6.81 road ERA. Price has road games this week at New York and at Boston.

Smoltz has made three starts for the Cardinals and has 1 BB and 21 SO in 17 IP. And while he allowed 8 HR in 40 IP in the American League, Smoltz has surrendered just 1 HR in the National League. His first start this week is against the Brewers, the team that scored four runs in six innings against him, three on a HR by Casey McGehee.

Lannan is 2-5 with a 5.13 ERA in his last 11 games. Prior to that, he had won four straight decisions after altering his pitching style to reduce strikeouts and pitch to contact. In the last 11 games, Lannan has a 24/21 SO/BB ratio and has only topped three strikeouts in a game once, when he notched 6 Ks in a win against the Marlins.

McCarthy has made one start since being activated from the disabled list, where he spent nearly three months recovering from a stress fracture in his right shoulder. For the year, McCarthy has an average fastball velocity of 89.2 percent but in his first outing back, he averaged 86.6 and maxed out at 88.4, yet still picked up his sixth win of the season. McCarthy has a 5.91 road ERA this season and has one home and one road game this week.

McCutchen won his major league debut last week against the Reds and notched a Quality Start, going 6 IP with 3 ER. Acquired from the Yankees in the Xavier Nady deal, McCutchen throws in the low 90s and if he can keep the ball in the park, he has a chance. Last year in Triple-A, McCutchen allowed 22 HR in 118.1 IP and went 7-9. This year in Triple-A, he allowed 10 HR in 142.2 IP and went 13-6. McCutchen allowed a leadoff homer to Drew Stubbs in his major league debut.

Maloney has made four starts in the majors and given up two homers in each of them. He has a 0.53 GB/FB ratio and a 20 percent HR/FB mark. Maloney has road starts this week at Colorado and at Chicago. Clint Barmes and Troy Tulowitzki have combined to hit 17 HR versus LHP this year, although no one on the Cubs has more than 4 HR versus southpaws.

Chen is likely to remain in the rotation with injuries to Brian Bannister and Gil Meche. He is a decent strikeout pitcher, with a 6.87 K/9 mark but that is the only thing Chen has going for him fantasy-wise. Both his ERA and FIP are over 5.00 and his WHIP checks in at 1.49. Like Maloney, he is a flyball pitcher (0.57 GB/FB) and he has a 1.64 HR/9 mark. Since notching 13 W with the Orioles in 2005, Chen has just one victory in the majors since, although it did come this season.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 23.

Homer Bailey – The overall numbers this year are underwhelming for Bailey but in his last three starts he is 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 19 Ks in 21.1 IP. He is consistently in the mid-90s with his fastball and can dial it up to 98. The gopher ball is still a problem, he gave up two in his last start, and he does have a road start this week in Coors. Still, I like him this week as a two-start pitcher.

Garrett Mock – In the last 24 games of August, the Nationals were 8-16. In that same time span, Mock was 3-2 with a 3.14 ERA and 32 SO in 28.2 IP. Walks have been a problem for Mock, but his FIP is still nearly a run lower than his ERA. Get him into your lineup this week, even with a tough matchup against the Phillies.

Clayton Richard – Fantasy owners have really been hesitant to pick up Richard since his move to the NL, despite a 4-1 record with the Padres. He is 3-0 at home and gets one of his two starts this week at Petco. Since his road start is at San Francisco, I think he is a good two-start pitcher this week.

Ricky Romero – It has been a very successful rookie season for Romero, but the lefty has been hitting the wall lately. In his last six starts, Romero is 1-3 with a 6.32 ERA and a 1.851 WHIP. He catches a break by not going up against any AL East teams this week, still I think it is good to give him a break and not suffer two starts equal to what he has posted recently.

Andy Sonnanstine – One year after pitching in the World Series, it has been a disappointing season for Sonnanstine. He was unimpressive in the beginning of the season and was sent back to the minors. Sonnanstine posted a 4.40 ERA in nine games at Triple-A Durham and then made it back to Tampa Bay after the Kazmir deal. And his first start back was more of the same as he fell to 6-8. This week he has road starts at the New York and at Boston. Keep him on the bench.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 23 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, F. Hernandez, Carpenter, Vazquez, Jimenez, Beckett, Happ, Lilly, Marquis, Kazmir, E. Santana, Garza, Scherzer, Buehrle, P. Martinez, Buchholz, Porcello, Penny, Richmond, Correia, Duensing, Bannister, Nippert, Lehr, Davies, Bush, Moehler, VandenHurk, Redding, Manship, Misch, Paulino.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 21 and how they did.

Arroyo – Advised to start. 1.88 ERA, 7 Ks, 1.05 WHIP (2 starts)
Buchholz – Advised to start. W, 5.54 ERA, 12 Ks, 1.08 WHIP (2)
Millwood – Advised to sit. W, 5.40 ERA, 4 Ks, 1.71 WHIP (2)
Niemann – Advised to sit. W, 4.72 ERA, 6 Ks, 1.20 WHIP (2)
Rowland-Smith – Advised to start. 3.14 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.05 WHIP (2)

Here is the latest update to Week 22 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

BOS – Lester
COL – de la Rosa
CIN – Cueto
MIN – Blackburn
CLV – C. Carrasco

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

BOS – Wakefield
OAK – Cahill
TEX – Nippert
TOR – Tallet
CIN – Lehr
CLV – Huff
COL – Fogg
MIN – Gabino

Lester has just one decision in his last six outings but has put up a 2.97 ERA with 41 strikeouts in 39.1 innings in that span. Overall, Lester has been pitching better this year than a season ago both by FIP (3.10 – 3.64) and tRA (3.46 – 4.52) but has neither the wins nor the ERA from last year.

de la Rosa has experienced feast or famine recently. He has five Quality Starts in his last eight games and missed another by 1/3 of an inning in an outing where he allowed 0 ER and struck out nine. But in the other two games he permitted 13 ER in 11 IP. Overall de la Rosa remains a good start with 12 W already and a 9.20 K/9 mark.

Cueto is slated to be activated from the disabled list in time to start in Game Two of the Reds’ double header versus the Pirates. Cueto had been sidelined with a sore shoulder. He started the season on fire, going 8-4 with a 2.69 ERA but was 0-6 with a 10.64 ERA in his final eight games before hitting the DL.

Blackburn had an 8-4 record on July 10. Since then he has lost five consecutive decisions and has an 8.22 ERA over eight starts. Just further proof how hard it is to succeed in the majors with a low strikeout rate. Blackburn has a K/9 of 3.79, which is the second-worst mark in the majors.

Carrasco, one of the players acquired from the Phillies in the Cliff Lee trade, is slated to make his major league debut after going 5-1 at Triple-A Columbus following the deal. Carrasco has a good fastball and a plus pitch with his changeup. He pitched into the seventh inning in five of his six starts for Columbus and had 7 BB and 36 Ks in 42.1 IP.

Chances are you have never heard of Joe Serafin, a pitcher in the minors with the Kannapolis Intimidators, the low-A affiliate of the Chicago White Sox. But if Serafin ever makes it to the majors, his story has all of the makings of a Hollywood movie.

Everyone always makes a big deal out of Mike Piazza being a 62nd-round draft pick. Today, the draft does not last that long; still the odds of someone making the majors after the first 10 rounds are slim. The White Sox picked Serafin on the 37th round this past June, the 1,123rd player taken overall.

Furthermore, Serafin was a fifth-year senior. In his final college season he went 4-7 with a 6.26 ERA. And it is not like Serafin was at one of the elite programs. He graduated from the University of Vermont, a program which has sent just 12 players to the majors, only two of which started their careers after the end of World War II.

Perhaps the most famous University of Vermont baseball alum was the last one from the school to reach the majors – Kirk McCaskill. Regardless, Serafin has a chance to be the final Catamount to play in MLB. Vermont AD Robert Corran announced in February that the school was dropping its baseball program following the 2009 season, which was the 110th season the school had a baseball team.

“We found out the week before we left for Vanderbilt to play our first weekend games,” Serafin told Tim Hayes of the Bristol Herald Courier. “Our [athletic director] came out, he’s a big hockey and basketball guy, and read off a piece of paper … It was a very emotional year.”

Another thing adding to the mystique around Serafin is his size. Depending upon the source, he is listed at either 5-10 or 5-11, a height he might reach if he donned some 1970s platform shoes. Serafin resembles someone much more likely to be at a Phish concert than at a Donna Summer show, so his choice of footwear probably had little to do with his “official” height.

This year at Kannapolis, Serafin has an impressive 4.00 K/BB ratio. But before you think of him as a Billy Wagner clone, Serafin does not even crack 90 with his fastball.

“I don’t throw my fastball very hard so I can’t blow it by people,” Serafin told the News and Record. “Up here I’ve been keeping it down in the zone, moving it in and out and hitting corners, which has really led to my success.”

After the draft, the White Sox assigned him to the rookie level Appalachian League and installed him in the bullpen. He got off to a hot start and won the loop’s Player of the Week Award honors by pitching five scoreless innings with six strikeouts in his first two professional games.

That got him into the rotation, where he went 3-1 in five starts with a 1.93 ERA. Once the White Sox executed the Jake Peavy deal and traded away four pitchers, including Dexter Carter, a spot opened up at Kannapolis and Serafin found himself in full-season ball. Saturday night’s win, in which he allowed just 1 ER in 7 IP, upped his record in the South Atlantic League to 3-1 and he has a 7-2 mark overall in his first season in pro ball.

“Since joining the White Sox I have continued to be the same crafty lefty who hits my spots and changes speeds with my curveball, and sometimes a good change up,” Serafin told Shane Bufano of the Vermont Sports Network.

“One day in Bristol during a bullpen (session) my pitching coach taught me how to throw a sinker/2-seam fast ball that tails away and sinks from a right handed hitter. This new pitch allows me to get ground balls in 2-0 counts and I throw it mostly with runners on base to give my infielders a chance to turn a double play. It has been very successful so far.”

The low minors are littered with soft-tossing college pitchers who post good strikeout numbers. Historically, Double-A is the level which weeds out most of these players.

Yet there is a lot to like with Serafin, who has already overcome many obstacles in his career. An undersized lefty, a late bloomer, a low draft pick from a school which no longer plays baseball and a soft tosser all rolled into one.

The only question is who will play him in the movie.

We’ve taken a shot at predicting the fantasy value of position players in new digs, and now it’s time to see what a Tampa Bay pitcher can do in the city of Angels.

Scott Kazmir leaves a park in Tampa Bay that is relatively kind to fly ball pitchers and has averaged a .916 park factor for home runs over the past three years. His new home is less forgiving (a 1.01 park factor for big flies over the past three years), something that a pitcher who has recently been giving up more fly balls will not appreciate.

Then again, Kazmir will be leaving the tough American League East and heading to a division with two of the worst offenses in baseball. He might enjoy that more if he didn’t own good records against the Red Sox (8-7, 3.59 ERA) and the Yankees (6-4, 2.53 ERA). On the other hand, he’s had a good run against the AL West, too (12-6, sub-3.10 ERA). In any case, if he takes the fifth starter spot in Anaheim, Kazmir will have some nice matchups in the beginning of September (@SEA, vsSEA) before ending on a rough note (vsCWS, @TEX, vsNYY, vsTEX).

The problem with using his old cumulative records is that Kazmir is no longer the pitcher he used to be. That has to be the reason behind the Rays’ trade, as well. They’ve seen the reduced velocity (he’s lost over two MPH on all of his offerings, and four MPH on his changeup), they’ve noticed that he’s been hurt more often these past two years (150 innings last year and on pace for a similar total this year), and they think they’ve gotten the best of this young pitcher (over $70 million in value over the past five years, against only about $5 million in salary) and were ready to move on before he got more expensive than he was worth. Kudos to them.

A lot has been made of the decline of his slider, which has gone from a plus pitch to a minus one in his five years in Tampa. He’s had arm troubles this year and last, and the slider often gets blamed in times like these. In the end, though, the real concern should be with his fastball, which was one of the best pitches in baseball the last two years and is now a negative. It’s lost velocity, and he’s seemingly lost confidence in the pitch, as he’s throwing it less. Just look at his usage rate of the fastball in recent games. He’s not throwing his fastball with authority and that’s the real issue here.

It’s not likely that Kazmir will suddenly regain his lost form this year. Amazingly, he seems to be fulfilling the prophecy that Jim Duquette fell back on when criticized for his Scott Kazmir-for-Victor Zambrano disasterpiece. Kazmir is a relatively small guy for a pitcher (6’0″, 190), and now he’s looking like the oft-injured pitcher Duquette thought he might be. On the other hand, the Mets probably could have used those last five years of good production Kazmir gave the Rays.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 22.

Trevor Cahill – In his last four starts, Cahill has a 2.33 ERA and a 1.037 WHIP. He is not a strikeout threat but could help in the other three categories this week. Cahill has two home starts and he has notched five of his seven wins this season at McAfee Coliseum.

Clayton Richard – His ERA is a disappointing 5.22 since being traded to the National League but he has had just one bad outing in five games for the Padres and carries a 3-1 record. Uncharacteristically, it has been poor control doing him in, as he has allowed 20 BB in 29.1 innings for San Diego. Still, I like him this week in a home start against Washington and a road matchup against the Dodgers and Vicente Padilla.

Jonathan Sanchez – There is a lot of pitching talent here, as the strikeouts and the no-hitter will attest. But he is 2-8 with a 4.81 ERA on the road this season and he has starts this week at Philadelphia and at Milwaukee, against two potent offenses. If you have the pitching depth, see if you can bench Sanchez this week.

Tim Wakefield – In his first start back from the disabled list, Wakefield got a no-decision despite a strong outing. He allowed just one run in seven innings against the White Sox. This week, Wakefield has two road starts, including a return engagement against the Chi Sox. I dislike return matchups against a team a pitcher just handled, so I would keep Wakefield on the bench this week.

Jarrod Washburn – In five starts for the Tigers, Washburn has one good outing, one okay performance and has been hit hard the other three times. He has a home-and-home matchup against the Rays and I expect at least one outing for the Rays to have their way with the veteran lefty. Keep Washburn on the bench this week if possible.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 22 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

J. Vazquez, J. Johnson, Burnett, Harden, Hammels, Oswalt, Jackson, Floyd, Wolf, Shields, Pineiro, Wells, Danks, Pettitte, Holland, Pelfrey, Saudners, D. Davis, A. Sanchez, G. Gonzalez, Maholm, Looper, Hochevar, Guthrie, Padilla, Rzepczynski, Fister, Hudson, L. Hernandez, Nippert, Petit, French, Cecil, Tallet, Lehr, Stauffer, Huff, Fogg, Gabino, Wells.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 20 and how they did.

Carmona – Advised to sit. W, 3.00 ERA, 12 Ks, 1.50 WHIP (2 starts)
Parra – Advised to sit. 7.71 ERA, 3 Ks, 1.93 WHIP (2)
Perez – Advised to start. W, 15.88 ERA, 4 Ks, 2.12 WHIP (2)
Price – Advised to start. W, 3.75 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.33 WHIP (2 starts)
Richmond – Advised to start. 5.14 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.29 WHIP (1)

Rocktober may well return in 2009. Following a dramatic 14-inning win over the San Francisco Giants last night, Colorado holds a four-game lead in the Wild card standings. That’s not insurmountable by any means, but Baseball Prospectus’ Postseason Odds Report gives the club a 75 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Once adjusting for the run-inflating nature of Coors, Colorado’s offense has been decidedly middle-of-the pack (they rank 7th in the NL in Park-Adjusted Batting Runs, at a collective -7 compared to the league average). The team’s D hasn’t exactly been sterling, either, placing 28th in team UZR. Rather, it’s the pitching that’s keeping the Rockies in the running. Colorado’s starters have authored a 3.92 FIP, 5th in the N.L. Once again adjusting for the environment of their home ball park, Colorado ranks 1st in the NL in starting pitching runs above average, at +146.5.

The man leading the charge is 25 year-old Ubaldo Jimenez. In his first full year in the rotation in 2008, Jimenez showed a world of promise, though also a maddening tendency to lose the strike zone. The Dominican Republic native (signed back in 2001) punched out 7.79 batters per nine innings, while also causing the opposition to chop the ball into the dirt with great frequency (54.4 GB%). He did, however, issue 4.67 BB/9 in his 198.2 frames of work.

In 2009, Jimenez has taken his pitching to a different level. The punch outs (7.95 K/9) and grounders (52 GB%) remain, but his walk rate has been pared down to 3.41 per nine innings. That fact that Ubaldo has managed to increase his K rate while facing fewer hitters per inning (4.5 batters faced per inning in ’08, 4.18 in ’09) is very impressive. His percentage of PA ending in a strikeout has risen from 19.8 in 2008 to 21.1 this season.

Everything Ubaldo throws is working in ’09. Everyone knows about the 6-4 righty’s searing fastball velocity (his 96 MPH average is tops in the majors). However, he is far more than a one-trick pony. That fastball has been worth +0.66 runs above average per 100 tosses, but Jimenez’s wicked 86 MPH slider (+2.17 runs/100), 77 MPH curveball (+0.56) and hard 87 MPH changeup/splitter (+2.12) are causing plenty of hitters to return to the dugout, grumbling and wondering just how they’re supposed to hit this guy.

Jimenez doesn’t appear to receive a whole lot of love nationally (though outdueling Tim Lincecum on Sunday will surely help), but he is establishing himself as one of the premier starters in the National League.

Ubaldo can flummox batters with any of four above-average-to-plus pitches. He possesses strong groundball tendencies, which certainly can’t hurt in a hazardous pitching venue (grounders may yield a higher BABIP than flyballs, but those flyballs that aren’t caught are typically extra base hits and yield a far higher slugging percentage; that’s why all things being equal, groundball-centric pitchers are preferable). And now, his control appears to have taken a step forward.

Jimenez is an ace, and one can make a case that he’s the best starter in the pitching-rich NL West not named “Haren” or “Lincecum.”