Archive for Starting Pitchers

Last July, the Cleveland Indians swapped long-time catcher/first baseman Victor Martinez to the Boston Red Sox in exchange for three young talents. Nick Hagadone, a lefty with a wicked fastball/slider combo coming back from Tommy John surgery, was the premium prospect in the deal. Righty reliever Bryan Price, a 2008 supplemental first-rounder out of Rice, was a sweetener. But the guy expected to pay immediate dividends was Justin Masterson.

A 6-6, 250 pound specimen, Masterson was selected out of San Diego State in the second round of the 2006 draft. In its ’06 draft coverage, Baseball America noted Masterson’s peculiar path to pro ball. The Jamaican born-right-hander sprouted eight inches in high school and spent his first two college seasons at NAIA Bethel, in Indiana. BA liked his big frame and heavy low-90’s sinker, but believed that lagging secondary stuff (a slider and a changeup) might necessitate a move to the bullpen.

After punishing hitters out of the ‘pen at short-season Lowell during the summer of 2006 (31.2 IP, 33/2 K/BB, 4 R), Masterson made his full-season debut as a starter at High-A Lancaster in 2007.

Though the home of the JetHawks is notorious for gale-force winds and offensive explosions, Masterson didn’t flinch. In 95.2 innings in the California League, he posted rates of 5.27 K/9 and 2.07 BB/9, with a 3.45 FIP. He used that bowling ball sinker to get grounders at a 53.6 percent clip. Masterson earned a call-up to Double-A Portland during the summer, thoroughly dominating the competition: a 3.10 FIP in 58 innings, with 9.16 K/9, 2.79 BB/9 and a 68.3 percent groundball rate.

Following that huge campaign, Masterson moved up the prospect charts. Baseball America named him the fourth-best talent in a fertile Boston system, praising his “special sinker” that resigned righty batters to weakly chopping the ball into the dirt. However, BA thought that Masterson’s low-three-quarters arm slot led to an inconsistent slider, and that his changeup was rudimentary. A future in the bullpen again was predicted.

In 2008, Masterson split the year between the upper levels of the minors and the major leagues. He put the beat down on batters in 47.2 combined Double-A and Triple-A innings (spent mostly at Double-A), with a 2.91 FIP, 8.5 K/9, 3.21 BB/9 and 65.1% groundball rate.

With Boston, he tossed 88.1 frames, making 27 relief appearances and nine starts. He was a beast of out the bullpen, but had some problems controlling the zone when asked to navigate opposing lineups multiple times.

Masterson was 40 percent better than the league average against same-handed batters (60 sOPS+ vs. RHB). But lefties, getting a long look at the ball because of Masterson’s low arm slot, performed three percent better than average (103 sOPS+).

Overall, Masterson whiffed 6.93 batters per nine innings, with 4.08 BB/9 and a 4.26 xFIP. He continued to burn worms (54.2 GB%), but his 3.16 ERA was boosted by a very low batting average on balls in play (.243) and a high rate of stranding runners on base (83.3 percent). While Masterson’s run values were inflated somewhat because of that good fortune, his 90 MPH sinker (+0.79 runs per 100 pitches) and 81 MPH slider (+2.64) were strong offerings.

Between Boston and Cleveland this past year, Masterson again divided his time between starting and relieving (26 ‘pen appearances, 16 starts). He was excellent in short stints, with 9.76 K/9, 2.95 BB/9 and a 3.23 xFIP in 39.2 relief innings. Starting, he compiled marks of 7.63 K/9, 4.72 BB/9 and a 4.41 xFIP in 89.2 innings. Masterson’s overall line? 129.1 IP, 8.28 K/9, 4.18 BB/9, and a 53.6 percent groundball rate, with a 4.05 xFIP.

Masterson pitched similarly in relief and as a starter, chucking a 92 MPH sinker in excess of 70 percent of the time, while using a harder slider (84 MPH) nearly a quarter of the time. His changeup remained an afterthought, thrown just three percent. The sinker was about average (-0.05 runs per 100 pitches), with the slider a plus pitch (+1.12). That sinker/slider mix again led to a sizeable platoon split: righties had a feeble 65 sOPS+, but lefties teed off for a 127 sOPS+.

Twenty-five in March, Masterson enters 2010 with a couple of questions left unanswered: can he hone his control as a starter, and can he avoid being eaten alive by left-handed batters? The two questions are obviously interrelated, as you can see through Masterson’s career platoon splits:

vs. RHB: 114.2 IP, 8.48 K/9, 2.98 BB/9, 3.48 xFIP
vs. LHB: 103 IP, 6.9 K/9, 5.42 BB/9, 4.86 xFIP

In terms of handling lefties, Masterson has a couple factors working against him. The same arm slot that makes him death on righty batters gives opposite-handed hitters ample opportunity to pick up the ball. Also, the same sinker/slider combo that eviscerates those right-handers isn’t near as effective against left-handers. Two-seam fastballs show a very large platoon split, as do sliders.

To Cleveland’s credit, the club appears to be giving Masterson every opportunity to prove that he can cut it as a starter in the majors. The soon-to-be 25 year-old is projected by CHONE to post a 4.27 FIP in 159 IP next year, with 7.47 K/9 and 4.02 BB/9. That performance would be worth around 2.1-2.2 Wins Above Replacement. Even if you think that Masterson will be a shut-down reliever, used often and in high-leverage situations (say, a 3.20 FIP in 80 innings, with a 1.5 Leverage Index), Masterson’s WAR would be around 1.7-1.8.

Right now, Masterson looks like a modestly above-average starter. It probably wouldn’t him hurt to try and add something to his arsenal that dips and fades away from lefties, though.

San Francisco Giants signed RHP Todd Wellemeyer to a minor league contract.

Wellemeyer gets a non-roster invitation to spring training, where he’ll try to crack San Francisco’s pitching staff as a long reliever. Chris Haft’s MLB.com article quotes Giants VP of baseball operations Bobby Evans as saying, “we’re looking at him right now more as a long man.” Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez and Zito fill the 1-4 spots in the rotation, and Madison Bumgarner, Joe Martinez and Kevin Pucetas are expected to compete for the fifth spot.

A former Cub, Marlin, Royal and Cardinal, Wellemeyer was a wild man in major league stints from 2003-2007. He appeared to turn a corner in 2008 with St. Louis, with 6.29 K/9, 2.91 BB/9 and a 4.49 xFIP in 191.2 innings pitched. A low BABIP (.273) and a high rate of stranding runners on base (76.9%) suggested that Wellemeyer wouldn’t replicate his 3.71 ERA, but he entered 2009 with a steady big league job for the first time in his career.

Unfortunately, Wellemeyer was walloped. He was placed on the DL in August with right elbow inflammation, but the injury appeared to diminish his stuff for most of the season. In 122.1 IP, Wellemeyer whiffed 5.74 batters per nine innings, with his walk rate rising to 4.19 per nine frames. His xFIP was 5.21.

The 31 year-old’s average fastball velocity dipped from 92.3 MPH in 2008 to 91.5 MPH in ’09. That heater wasn’t especially effective in ’08 (-0.56 runs per 100 pitches thrown), but it was even worse this past season (-0.96 runs/100). Despite a one MPH dip in velocity, Wellemeyer’s slider remained sharp (+1.63 in ’08, +1.5 in ’09). His changeup was battered, though: -4.52 runs/100 pitches in 2009, compared to +1.25 the previous year. Wellemeyer’s contact rate increased from a league average 80.3% in ’08 to 82.8% in ’09, with his swinging strike rate declining from 9.2% in 2008 to 7.6% in 2009 (7.8 percent MLB average for starters).

Wellemeyer’s fantasy value is negligible at this point. He has one year of average pitching on his resume, surrounded by years of getting drubbed and a troubling history of elbow ailments. According to the Fantasy Pitch F/X DL Tool, Wellemeyer missed a month and a half with an elbow sprain in 2007, and missed some time in 2008 with elbow inflammation as well.

New York Mets signed 1B Mike Jacobs to a minor league contract.

Jacobs, 29, will try to work his way into New York’s first base mix, which includes Fernando “two grannies in one inning” Tatis and Daniel “please don’t play me in left field” Murphy.

A former Mets farmhand shipped to Florida in the November 2005 Carlos Delgado deal, Jacobs is basically a fantasy landmine. Sure, he has power, and if you’re not careful, he’s the sort of player that can lull you into thinking he’s a decent option.

Following an abysmal season spent in Kansas City, the lefty batter has a career .335 wOBA. And, he has a 32 homer, 93 RBI campaign to his name, too. That sounds OK, right? Not for the position that he plays. The average first baseman posted a .350 wOBA in 2009, a level which Jacobs has never come particularly close to during his big league tenure.

He doesn’t control the strike zone, and as Jacobs’ splits page shows, lefties make him jelly-legged (career .281 wOBA in 449 plate appearances). Even if we regress that mark against southpaws toward the mean, Jacobs’ projected wOBA against left-handers is about .293, compared to .334 versus righties. In other words, he’s terrible against same-handed pitching, and a slightly above-average MLB hitter against right-handers. That doesn’t cut it at first base.

At first blush, Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Billy Buckner looks like a toxic fantasy option. After all, he’s an exiled Kansas City Royal who posted a-shield your eyes!-6.40 ERA in 2009. Why in the world should you care about William Jennings Bucker?

What if I were to argue that Buckner really didn’t pitch that poorly last season? That, in terms of the facets of pitching over which he has the most control, Bucker was actually pretty good? Crazy, right? Perhaps not.

Kansas City’s second round pick in the 2004 draft, Bucker has tossed 324 innings at the Triple-A level (51 starts, 15 relief appearances). Overall, the University of South Carolina product has punched out 6.9 batters per nine frames, with 3.2 BB/9 and a 3.82 Fielding Independent ERA.

Courtesy of Minor League Splits, here are Buckner’s Major League Equivalent lines from 2007-2009, based on his Triple-A work:

2007: 105 IP, 6.26 K/9, 2.83 BB/9, 48.2 GB%, 4.58 FIP
2008: 124 IP, 4.44 K/9, 3.93 BB/9, 46.2 GB%, 5.01 FIP
2009: 106 IP, 7.24 K/9, 4.85 BB/9, 49.5 GB%, 4.17 FIP

Those aren’t the numbers of some amazing, unrecognized pitcher, but they’re useful nonetheless. Buckner’s combined MLE from 2007 to 2009: a 4.65 FIP, with 5.96 K/9 and 3.88 BB/9.

Buckner bounced between Triple-A Tucson and Arizona last year, compiling a big league ERA that would make Daniel Cabrera giggle. But beneath the Boeing-level ERA, Buckner showed some promising skills.

In 77.1 innings pitched (13 starts, 3 ‘pen appearances), the 26 year-old struck out 7.45 batters per nine innings, issuing 3.38 BB/9. He also kept the ball down, generating grounders 48.8 percent of the time. Buckner’s xFIP, based on whiffs, walks and a normalized home run per fly ball rate, was 3.95- nearly two and a half runs lower than his actual ERA.

What happened? For one, it seemed as though the D-Backs righty had seven Bill Buckners behind him, with Mookie Wilson perpetually at the plate (I know, I know-it was an error. But play along). Buckner’s BABIP was .347, the ninth-highest rate among pitchers working at least 70 frames.

In addition, his HR/FB rate was obscenely high: 16.7 percent of fly balls hit against Bucker left the yard, compared to the 11-12 percent major league average. Buckner’s rate of stranding runners on base, 63.2, was also out of whack. Perhaps he does struggle pitching from the stretch. But it seems unlikely that Buckner will have a strand rate seven to nine percent below the big league average again next year.

Buckner did a nice job of getting batters to go fishing, getting swings on pitches out of the strike zone 29.9 percent of the time (25% MLB average). His contact rate was 76.5 percent, below the 80-81 percent major league average.

Granted, he will have to combat Chase Field’s inhospitable environs: per the 2010 Bill James Handbook, Chase boosted run scoring by 15 percent compared to a neutral ball park over the past three seasons. But heading into 2010, Buckner figures to be Arizona’s fifth starter. CHONE projects a 4.45 FIP in 167 innings, with 6.84 punch outs per nine and 3.45 BB/9.

Billy Buckner won’t be on anybody’s draft list. In all likelihood, some of your fellow owners will think you’re just having some 80’s flashback if you mention the guy’s name. But Bucker could be a shrewd NL-only option if injuries send you scrambling to the waiver wire.

The 2010 season figures to be a year of transition and development for the Toronto Blue Jays. It will be year one A.H. (After Halladay), and the Jays have little chance of contending with the baseball super powers in the Bronx, Boston and Tampa.

Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA pegs the current Toronto roster for a last-place finish in the A.L. East, with a 72-90 record and a -91 run differential. An infusion of prospects (Brett Wallace, Kyle Drabek and Travis D’Arnaud chief among them) suggests better days may be ahead, but it will be an uphill climb to contention in a division where anything less than excellence won’t cut it.

Sans Halladay, the Blue Jays feature a youthful, lefty-laden rotation. While Marc Rzepczynski doesn’t have the draft pedigree of Ricky Romero or Brett Cecil, Toronto’s lesser-known southpaw could be a sleeper heading into the 2010 season.

A U.C. Riverside product, Rzepczynski was taken in the fifth round of the 2007 draft. The 6-1, 205 pounder missed a portion of his senior season with the Highlanders with elbow soreness, as well as a broken knuckle on his pitching hand. Baseball America liked Rzepczynski’s four-pitch mix, though, noting a tailing fastball sitting at 88-91 MPH, a low-80’s curve and slider, and an occasional changeup. While cautioning that command had always been “a major problem” for Rzepczynski, BA said he had middle-of-the-rotation potential.

The play-by-play announcer’s worst nightmare made his pro debut in the short-season New York-Penn League, where he posted rates of 9.7 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 and a 2.81 FIP in 45.2 innings pitched. Rzepczynski waged a ground assault on less experienced batters, using his sinker to the tune of a 65.6 percent groundball rate.

Prior to 2008, Rzepczynski checked in at #21 on Baseball America’s list of Blue Jays prospects. BA praised his 87-89 MPH sinker, boring in on same-handed hitters and occasionally cracking the low-90’s. Rzepczynski also featured a hard slider and a changeup. His “long, slinging arm action” from a three-quarters arm slot added life to his pitches, though the english on those offerings came at the expense of fine touch around the corners of the plate.

In ’08, Rzepczynski spent the whole year at Lansing of the Low-A Midwest League. Marc missed April with a fractured pitching hand, but he returned to screw with A-Ball hitters as a member of the Lugnuts. He authored a 2.60 FIP in 121 IP, punching out 9.2 hitters per nine innings and issuing 3.1 BB/9. While that microscopic FIP was influenced by a very low home run rate (0.15 HR/9), it’s hard to find many faults when a hurler is whiffing over a batter per inning while inducing grounders at a 66.5% clip.

Rzepczynski jumped up to ninth on Toronto’s prospect list leading up to 2009. BA noted that he pounded the bottom of the zone with an 88-90 MPH fastball, supplementing the sinker with a sharp low-80’s slider, an average changeup and a “show-me” curveball. They did voice some concern about the disconnect between Rzepczynski K rates and his stuff: “though he got plenty of swings and misses in low Class A, Rzepczynski lacks a true out pitch.”

This past year, Rzepczynski zipped from Double-A to the majors. He began 2009 in the Eastern League, compiling a 2.64 FIP in 76.2 innings with 10.3 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9. Rzepczynski’s stuff passed the two-level jump with flying colors, and he burned worms with a 61 GB%. After just two starts at Triple-A (11.1 IP, 16/4 K/BB), Rzepczynski reached the majors in early July.

In 11 starts and 61.1 innings with Toronto, the 24 year-old had a promising 3.70 xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent ERA, based on strikeouts, walks and a normalized home run per fly ball rate). He struck out 8.8 hitters per nine frames, with 4.4 BB/9 and a 51.2 percent groundball rate. Not wanting Rzepczynski to zoom past the previous year’s innings pitched total (he threw 28.1 more IP in 2009 than in ’08), the Jays shut him down in early September.

Rzepczynski tossed his 88 MPH sinker 55 percent of the time with Toronto, going to his 80 MPH slider a whopping 39 percent and sprinkling in some 82 MPH changeups (six percent). It’s difficult to glean much from such a small sample size, but Rzepczynski scuffled with the sinker (-1.05 runs per 100 pitches) while baffling batters with the slider (+2.9 runs/100).

Control was an issue during his first big league stint, as Rzepczynski located just 42 percent of his pitches within the strike zone (49% MLB average). His first-pitch strike percentage was just 52.1 percent (58% MLB average). Despite the high strikeout rate, Rzepczynski’s contact percentage was about league average, at 80.4 percent.

In 2010, CHONE has Rzepczynski posting a 4.05 FIP, with 8.7 K’s per nine innings and 4.4 BB/9. It’s going to be interesting to see how his punchout rates translate long-term to the majors. Despite not having the archetypal power pitcher’s arsenal, Rzepczynski has deftly avoided lumber at each level of competition. His control needs work, but this lefty’s combination of whiffs and worm burners could make him The Dude to target late on draft day.

San Diego Padres signed C Yorvit Torrealba to a one-year, $1.25 million contract with a $3.5 million mutual option for the 2011 season.

Torrealba, 31, is expected to split time behind the dish with Nick Hundley. Dusty Ryan, designated for assignment by the Tigers and picked up by the Padres in a December trade, is likely ticketed for Triple-A Portland.

In part-time play last year, Torrealba turned in his best offensive season since he was a Giant back in 2004. He batted .291/.351/.380 in 242 plate appearances with the Rockies. However, there’s little reason to believe that he’ll replicate that production in 2010.

Torrealba’s BABIP was .355 in 2009, compared to a .298 career mark in the majors. And clearly, the change in home ballparks is massive. When you take Coors Field into account, Torrealba’s ’09 production at the plate was still 16 percent worse than average (84 wRC+). His career wRC+ with Colorado is 77.

So, with plenty of extra hits dropping in and the benefit of Coors, Torrealba was still a tepid batter. Now, he’s going to cavernous Petco, anathema to all things offense. CHONE projects a .242/.301/.353 line in 2010, with a 73 wRC+.

Oakland Athletics traded LHP Dana Eveland to the Toronto Blue Jays for a PTBNL or cash.

A husky left-hander, Eveland has now been traded three times during his career. The Brewers’ 16th-round pick in the 2002 draft was swapped to the Diamondbacks in November of 2006, and then headed to Oakland in December of 2007 as a sweetener in the Dan Haren deal.

In four seasons at the Triple-A level, the 26 year-old punched out 7.7 batters per nine frames, with 3.4 BB/9. He struggled in three cups of coffee in the majors from 2005-2007.

But Eveland tossed 168 frames in 29 starts with the A’s in 2008, with 6.32 K/9, 4.13 BB/9 and a 4.55 xFIP. There’s nothing awe-inspiring about that line, and he did often back himself into hitter’s counts (54.7 first-pitch strike percentage, compared to the 58-59% MLB average).

However, Eveland’s four-pitch mix garnered ground balls 48.7 percent of the time. His 90 MPH fastball was worth -0.31 runs per 100 pitches, with his high-70’s curve (-0.18) and low-80’s changeup (-0.49) also in the red. But Eveland’s bread-and-butter offering was a low-80’s slider, thrown over 23 percent of the time with a +1.76 run value per 100 tosses.

2009, by comparison, was a disaster. In 44 frames with Oakland, Eveland struck out just 22 batters and issued 26 free passes. He wasn’t 7.16 ERA-level bad, but that 5.20 xFIP was still plenty grim. Eveland’s fastball velocity dipped to 88.7 MPH. At Triple-A Sacramento, the southpaw posted rates of 6.7 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9, with a 4.33 FIP in 124 innings.

There’s little downside from Toronto’s perspective, as they pick up the recently DFA’d Eveland at little cost. If he can find the form that allowed him to pitch at a league-average level in ’08, Eveland could fight for a spot at the back of the Blue Jays’ rotation. It’s an awfully crowded competition, however. His CHONE forecast for 2010? A 4.59 FIP in 144 innings, with 5.44 K/9 and 3.94 BB/9.

Washington Nationals signed INF Adam Kennedy to a one-year, $1.25 million contract with a $2 million club option for the 2011 season.

Kennedy will man second base for the Nationals, meaning that Cristian Guzman will remain at shortstop for the time being and that Ian Desmond does not have a defined role with the club at the outset of the 2010 season.

Signed to a minor league deal by the Rays last year, Kennedy was traded to the A’s and split his time between second and third base. In 587 PA, Kennedy batted .289/.348/.410 with a 108 wRC+. He nabbed 20 bases in 26 attempts to boot.

Kennedy didn’t come anywhere near that offensive level from 2006 to 2008 (a combined 77 wRC+), and he turned 34 in January. It’s not surprising, then, that the projection systems aren’t too fond of him: CHONE calls for an 89 wRC+, as does Marcel. Given his multi-position eligibility and ability to swipe some bags, Kennedy could have a tiny bit of value in NL formats early next season. Just don’t expect an ’09 repeat.

For the past two years, Jorge de la Rosa has improved in all four fantasy categories for a starting pitcher. Of course, that was a relatively easy thing for him to do, given how poor he was in 2007. Still, last year de la Rosa finished in the top 20 in both Wins and Ks. Given how fantasy players love to get “the next big thing,” you might think de la Rosa would be a hot commodity in mock draft season. But you would be wrong.

Instead, the Rockies pitcher sits with an ADP of 180. Recently, Razzball unveiled its 2009 end of season fantasy player rater and de la Rosa ranked 131. The mockers are not buying that number and instead forecast that he will not repeat, much less improve upon, his fine numbers from a year ago. Part of it may be the stigma of being a pitcher in Colorado and part of it may be the poor ERA and WHIP numbers.

Either way, it looks like we may have the new Ted Lilly. For several years now, fantasy owners have undervalued Lilly, despite a very good K rate and strong Win totals. Even after posting a 3.10 ERA last year, Lilly still appears to be a bargain, with a current ADP of 149.

Last year, de la Rosa finished with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. The ERA placed 65th while the WHIP was tied for 59th out of 77 qualified pitchers. Fantasy owners do not want to pay for Wins and shy away from de la Rosa because he is poor in two of the three remaining categories.

At the All-Star break, de la Rosa had a 5.21 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. But his final 15 starts of the year, he was a different pitcher. In the second half, de la Rosa was 10-2 with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. He gave up the same number of HR in the second half in 8.1 fewer innings. The improvement appears to be all WHIP-related.

After having a 4.28 BB/9 in the first half, de la Rosa followed up with a 3.67 mark after the break. And his BABIP was .301 in the second half, after starting off the year with a .327 mark. In his final 15 games, he had 10 starts where he gave up two or fewer runs.

The turnaround actually started even earlier for de la Rosa, who started the season 0-6 with a 5.43 ERA. He went 16-3 with a 3.94 ERA over the final four months of the season, which matches up almost perfectly to when Jim Tracy took over as the team’s manager.

In July, de la Rosa credited his turnaround to his two-seam fastball and throwing more first-pitch strikes, although the numbers do not necessarily support this claim. While his F-Strike% of 55.9 was up from a year ago, it was lower than it was in 2007. And TexasLeaguers.com shows him throwing his two-seam fastball at just 2.4 percent for the year.

Either way, it is easy to read too much into second half numbers. One needs only to recall the second half of 2008 and then 2009 for Ricky Nolasco to remember this lesson. But de la Rosa does not need a 3.46 ERA or a 1.30 WHIP to be a big bargain at his current ADP.

Anecdotally, we can all remember lefties that discovered control and success later than normal, including Randy Johnson, Al Leiter and Sandy Koufax. But while there is no proof that lefties develop later than righties, it would be foolish to ignore the possibility that de la Rosa could be another late bloomer. If he can continue to throw strikes like he did in the second half, de la Rosa could wind up as one of the top pitchers in baseball.

St. Louis Cardinals signed LHP Rich Hill to a minor league contract.

The memories of Hill’s 2006 and 2007 seasons with the Chicago Cubs become hazier with each passing day. The 6-5 left-hander with the slow, looping curveball had a 4.51 xFIP in 99.1 innings during ’06, whiffing 8.15 batters per nine frames and walking 3.53 per nine. In Triple-A that year, he terrorized the PCL to the tune of 12.15 K/9, 1.89 BB/9 and a 1.67 FIP in 100 IP. 2007 was even better, as Hill logged 195 frames with the Cubs. He posted rates of 8.45 K/9 and 2.91 BB/9, with a 4.13 xFIP.

The University of Michigan product was an extreme fly ball hurler (34 GB% from 2006-2007), but his high-80’s heater had positive run values both seasons (+0.22 runs per 100 pitches in ’06, +0.66 in ’07), while his curve rated as -0.26 in ’06 and +0.53 in ’07.

Then, the wheels fell off. Hill scarcely pitched in 2008, as he was sidelined with back problems. He issued 18 free passes in 19.2 innings with Chicago, and walked 44 batters in 47.2 IP between Rookie Ball, High-A and Triple-A.

Shipped to the Orioles last February, Hill missed the first two months of the season with a left elbow strain and continued to have Blassian issues finding the strike zone. In 57.2 frames with Baltimore, Hill struck out 7.18 hitters per nine innings but walked an obscene 6.24 per nine. His xFIP was 5.69, as he tossed a first-pitch strike just 46.9 percent of the time (58-59% MLB average). That was the lowest rate among all big league pitchers throwing at least 50 innings. In August, Hill went under the knife to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder.

Thirty years old in March, Hill is now a broken, control-challenged project. He’s a long shot to contribute, but New Busch smiles upon fly ball-centric pitchers: per the 2010 Bill James Handbook, Busch has decreased homer production by 20 percent compared to a neutral park from 2007-2009, while deflating run scoring by seven percent.

Chicago Cubs signed INF Chad Tracy to a minor league contract.

The last time Tracy played regularly was 2006, when he turned in a 102 wRC+ with Arizona. Since then, the 29 year-old lefty batter has been injury-prone and ineffective. Tracy was placed on the DL with an oblique strain and right knee tendinitis in 2007. He had microfracture surgery in September of ’07, which sidelined him until May of 2008. This past year, Tracy again hit the DL with an oblique strain.

From 2007-2009, the erstwhile D-Back authored an 86 wRC+. For 2010, CHONE offers an 84 wRC+ projection, while the fans envision a 92 wRC+. Even if he cracks the 25-man roster this spring, Tracy doesn’t figure to see much playing time with the Cubs.

New York Yankees traded INF Mitch Hilligoss to the Texas Rangers for OF Greg Golson.

Golson’s really fast and….did I mention he’s fast? The 24 year-old was once a warmly regarded prospect in the Phillies’ system, but a fatal lack of strike zone control has wrecked his career prospects. Golson did swipe 20 bags in 24 attempts for Triple-A Oklahoma. Unfortunately the former first-rounder “batted” .258/.299/.344, walking 5.8 percent and whiffing 23 percent. During his minor league tenure, Golson has a .263/.308/.395 triple-slash, drawing ball four 5.5 percent and striking out 26.5 percent. He’ll aspire to become the next Freddy Guzman.

The Oakland Athletics have reportedly inked free agent right-hander Ben Sheets to a one-year, $10 million contact. That pact might also include incentives.

The 31 year-old missed the entire 2009 season following February elbow surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon. Sheets easily topped the 200-inning mark in each season from 2002-2004, but has provided transient excellence since then. Courtesy of the Fantasy Pitch F/X DL Tool, here’s Sheets’ extensive injury history:

2001: right shoulder tendinitis (DL, missed 46 days)
2005: Vestibular Neuritis (DL, missed 37 days)
2005: upper back strain (DL, missed 36 days)
2006: right shoulder strain (DL, missed 23 days)
2006: right shoulder tendinitis (DL, missed 82 days)
2007: right middle finger injury (DL, missed 45 days)

Sheets recently auditioned for potential suitors, topping out at 91 MPH with his fastball and showcasing his signature curveball.

When healthy, the 10th overall pick in the 1999 draft shows a rare combination of power and precision. Sheets has punched out 7.97 batters per nine innings during his big league career, handing out just 1.97 BB/9. The 6-1 Louisiana native has a 63.2 first-pitch strike percentage since 2002, well north of the 58-59 percent MLB average over that time period. His career xFIP is 3.55.

Prior to the elbow injury, Sheets sat 92-93 MPH with his four-seam fastball. The pitch has a +0.61 run value per 100 tosses since 2002. His high-70’s curveball, thrown over 30 percent of the time, checks in at +0.58 runs/100 pitches. Sheets has rarely utilized a changeup, and for good reason (-1.59 runs/100).

Sheets should enjoy his new digs. According to the 2010 Bill James Handbook, The Oakland Coliseum sapped run-scoring by nine percent compared to a neutral ball park from 2007-2009, while suppressing home runs by 10 percent. Considering Sheets’ fly ball tendencies (career 41.8 GB%), he’ll like the extra breathing room.

Is there a bigger wild card out there than Ben Sheets? He’s superb when able to take the mound, but it’s unclear if he left any of his stuff on the operating table. CHONE projects Sheets to log 114 innings next year, with 7.1 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 3.86 FIP. If he were to reach those totals, Sheets would provide about 2.1 WAR in value.

If you can snag Sheets late in your draft, by all means do. He could provide upper-echelon production, but there are obviously many unknowns regarding his health. Still, gambling on a guy like Sheets beats settling for the Jeremy Guthries and Jon Garlands of the world.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops, catchers, second basemen, first basemen, third basemen, right fielders, left fielders and center fielders.)

Of course, when it comes to pitchers, the format suffers. We’re not about to do tiered rankings for the top 75+ pitchers that get drafted every year in mixed leagues – that would be one long post. Instead, we’re doing starters by tiers. Tier one, otherwise known as SP1, was last week. SP2 is below.

Imagine if, on offense, you were just able to pick whomever regardless of position? Or, more correctly, what if there were only two positions on offense in fantasy baseball? Infield and Outfield? That’s what it’s like on the pitching side. So, not surprisingly, the second tier of fantasy starting pitchers looks pretty nice. (It’s also reason #36,978 to draft pitching later!)

All of the hurlers in the first tier could easily end up as fantasy aces next year. Matt Cain and Javier Vazquez were probably even SP1s last year… we just doubt their ability to repeat those seasons. Jake Peavy got a demotion from the first set of pitchers because of his health and move to the stronger league. Yovani Gallardo and Tommy Hanson are young, exciting, and ascendant: pick one of them as your SP1 and follow it up with a possible bounce-back veteran like Cole Hamels, and your likelihood of having two fantasy aces is high.

The next tier just has more question marks. Clayton Kershaw has some awesome pitches, and an equally terrible walk rate to go with them. Jair Jurrjens just had too many stranded runners and too many bouncing balls go his way to trust him to be anywhere as good as he was last year. Wandy Rodriguez has now sustained his excellence two years in a row – but his fastball barely cracks 90 miles per hour, and throwing all those curveballs (almost 40%) has to catch up with you some day, maybe. John Lackey brings multiple question marks (rising walk rate, dropping strikeout rate and innings totals) with him into a new stadium. Chad Billingsley looks like he got a little unlucky last year and may return to grace, but given his walk rate, his WHIP may never be elite.

The final tier includes some semi-controversial pitchers, since we all seem to love Brett Anderson more than his major league numbers perhaps bear out. It could be because of his unique stuff, as Dave Allen showed us a while back in a great post. Then we have numbers that seem to suggest that Ricky Nolasco was very unlucky last year and should be in line for a good season as the luck pendulum swings back for him. We also see two former aces that have ridden injuries to the bottom of the SP2s in Roy Oswalt and Brandon Webb. Webb’s injury is a bigger deal because it was in his shoulder, but Oswalt is a slight guy with declining innings totals that has talked of an early retirement.

And then we have the two toughest names to place on this list. James Shields never had plus strikeout rates, and with the walk rate and WHIP rising slowly, you have to wonder if he’ll just always be a high-3s ERA guy that won’t get you much more than 160 Ks. Joining him is fellow low-WHIP meister Scott Baker. Both pitchers actually have okay strikeout rates, good walk rates, poor home run rates, and high-3s FIPs. Their low WHIP makes them attractive, and they are good pitchers. But who do you move off the list to get them on?

Back in 2006, Francisco Liriano pitched like a cyborg sent from the year 2029 to annihilate all American League Central competition.

The Twins southpaw, just 22 at the time, snapped off mid-90’s gas, wicked high-80’s sliders and tumbling mid-80’s changeups. Liriano began the season in relief, but transitioned to the rotation in mid May. No matter his role, Liriano’s command to batters was clear: “your bats…give them to me now.”

In 121 innings pitched, the former Giants farmhand posted an xFIP (2.35) that could only be seen with Terminator Vision. Liriano struck out 10.71 batters per nine innings, while issuing just 2.38 BB/9. He also burned worms with a 55.3 GB%. Ample whiffs, few walks and groundball tendencies-that’s the holy trinity of pitcher skills.

While laying waste to opposing batters, Liriano tossed an incredible number of sliders. He unleashed that upper-80’s breaker nearly 38 percent, the highest rate in the majors among starters with 120+ IP. The 6-2 southpaw threw his 94-95 MPH fastball only 43 percent of the time, the fifth-lowest rate among pitchers. Liriano also threw his changeup often (19 percent).

His heater was decent (+0.13 runs per 100 pitches), but the slider (+3.47) and changeup (+2.82) were otherworldly. Liriano had the lowest contact percentage in the game (65.4), and he pounded the strike zone. Francisco placed 54.8% of his pitches over the plate, compared to the 52.6% average that season. Simply put, he was untouchable. Twins fans had visions of Liriano and Johan Santana leading the club to perennial postseason glory.

But Minnesota’s terminator malfunctioned. Liriano was scratched from an early August start with elbow soreness. He took the mound against the Tigers on August 7th, but was pulled after just four innings. The Twins placed him on the DL for forearm soreness soon after, hoping that rest and rehab would cure what ailed the phenom. Liriano returned to face the A’s on September 13th, but he lasted only two frames. Tommy John surgery soon followed.

Liriano missed the entire 2007 season, then logged a hefty workload upon returning in 2008. Liriano was called up from Triple-A Rochester in mid-April to fill in for Kevin Slowey, but he was sent back to the International League after a few poor starts and wouldn’t be recalled until August. In 118 innings with Rochester, Liriano posted a 3.03 FIP with rates of 8.62 K/9 and 2.36 BB/9.

While he didn’t terrify hitters like in the halcyon days of ’06, post-TJ Liriano was still plenty nasty. He had a 4.31 xFIP in 76 frames, whiffing 7.93 hitters per nine innings and walking 3.79 per nine. Post-surgery, Liriano didn’t get hitters to chop the ball into the ground as much (41.6 GB%).

Liriano increased his fastball usage to 54 percent, tossing sliders 26 percent and changeups 20 percent. His heater lacked the same zip, sitting at slightly under 91 MPH, and that upper-80’s slider turned in to a low-80’s offering (83-84 MPH). The slider remained deadly (+2.18 runs/100 pitches), and his changeup also rated decently (+0.03). But Liriano’s fastball lagged, at -0.54 per 100 tosses.

Not surprisingly for a post-TJ pitcher, Liriano had some issues with his control. His zone percentage dropped to 47.1, compared to the 51.1 percent MLB average, and his first-strike percentage was just 48.9 (58-59% MLB average). Even so, he was difficult to square up: Liriano’s contact rate was 75.5% (80-81% MLB average), and his swinging strike rate was 10.5 percent (7.8% average for starters).

Last offseason, I predicted a big 2009 season for Liriano:

The pitcher who burst onto the scene in 2006 might never return, but the current version of Francisco Liriano is extremely talented in his own right. If his control takes a step forward, as is the case with many TJ pitchers in their second year back, look out. Sill just 25 and possessing a full arsenal of pitches, Liriano should re-establish himself as one of the better starting pitchers in the AL in 2009.

Instead, he was battered for a 5.80 ERA in 136.2 IP. Liriano missed a couple starts with swelling in his left forearm in late July and early August, then was placed on the DL with left elbow fatigue in mid-August. Upon returning in September, Liriano made just one start while otherwise pitching out of the ‘pen.

The continued health problems are disconcerting. However, Liriano wasn’t the total punching bag that his ERA would suggest.

Liriano punched out 8.03 batters per nine innings, with 4.28 BB/9 and a 40.2 GB%. His BABIP was inflated at .324, and his home run per fly ball rate (12.5%) was a little higher than usual. Liriano’s rate of stranding runners on base (66.3 percent) was also below his career 70.7% average. While he was no ace, he posted a less gruesome 4.55 xFIP.

Control remained elusive: he put just 45 percent of his pitches within the strike zone, third-lowest among starters with 130+ IP. Liriano got ahead of hitters 0-and-1 or induced first-pitch contact only 55.4 percent of the time. Despite those negative indicators, his contact rate (74 percent) was fourth-lowest among starters, and his swinging strike rate climbed to 11.6 percent.

Keep in mind that Liriano’s pitch run values are deflated somewhat due to the discord between his results and his peripherals. But even so, the difference between his fastball and secondary stuff was marked. The slider gained a few ticks on the radar gun (86 MPH) and rated at +1.38 per 100 pitches. Liriano’s changeup was a quality pitch as well (+0.91).

His fastball crept up to 91-92 MPH, but it was slaughtered for a -1.99 runs/100 value. Only Detroit’s Armando Galarraga fared worse on a per-pitch basis. As Dave Allen illustrated, Lirano’s heater gets very few swings outside of the zone, few whiffs and few groundballs.

Pitching in the Dominican Winter League, Liriano has reportedly had no injury problems and has sat 92-94 MPH with his gas.

Entering 2010, Liriano is a fantasy conundrum. He’s still just 26, possesses a sinister slider and pulls the string on a plus changeup. Even if he were to make no substantial progress, Liriano would likely be a league-average starter next season with better luck.

But in order to become more than merely average, Liriano is going to have to make strides with his heater. He does an exceptional job of throwing his slider and change for strikes, but the fastball often misses the mark. That leads to hitter’s counts, as evidenced by Liriano’s lagging first-pitch strike percentage.

Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn and Carl Pavano are locked into the rotation. Liriano will likely have to contend with Brian Duensing for that last opening. CHONE prefers Liriano (4.36 FIP, compared to 4.77 for Duensing).

Don’t forget Liriano. Exasperating as he is, he figures to post an ERA in the low-to-mid four’s in 2010. He’ll be back. That fastball needs an upgrade, however, if he hopes to terminate opposing batters.