The Oakland Athletics’ rotation is in between phases. The vaunted “Big Three” of Hudson, Zito and Mulder has long since become a relic of the past, and the latest touted trio of Haren, Harden and Blanton was converted into copious amounts of young, cost-controlled talent. A new wave of high-ceiling arms, led by the one-two punch of Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, will soon dominate the headlines.

Until then, the A’s will hope to receive yeoman’s work from second-tier hurlers such as Sean Gallagher, Dana Eveland and Gio Gonzalez. There’s another name penciled into the rotation who could provide quality work despite a lack of press clippings: Dallas Braden.

The southpaw stayed on the draft board until the 24th round back in 2004, considered nothing more than an organizational filler. Scouts questioned how his wacky repertoire would play in pro ball- Braden was known for a screwball-like pitch that gave hitters fits, but the offering was supported only by high-80’s heat, a flat slider and an average changeup.

Undeterred by a lack of scouting love, Braden tore up less advanced batters between Vancouver (Northwest League) and Kane County (A-Ball) in 2004. In 42 IP, he posted a 63/9 K/BB ratio while surrendering 37 hits. That small sample was not enough to change opinions, though, as Braden went into the 2005 season outside of Baseball America’s top 30 Oakland prospects.

Braden received more of a challenge in ’05, as he was deployed to the High-A California League (where pitching prospects go to die). He continued to whiff opposing hitters like some Randy Johnson doppelganger, with 64 K’s in and 11 walks in 43.2 frames (2.68 ERA). Bumped to the Texas League for the second half, the screwballer did not dominate, but held his own with a 3.90 ERA in 97 frames. Braden posted rates of 6.6 K/9 and 2.96 BB/9.

The Texas Tech alum put his name on the prospect map, coming in at number 19 in BA’s Oakland rankings. Said BA: “he gets hitters out with guile, command and a trick pitch.” Things weren’t all sunshine and rainbows, however, as Braden was shut down in August with a tired arm.

That “tired arm” would turn out to be more nefarious, as Braden went under the knife for shoulder surgery during the offseason. After making so much progress and fighting his perceived limitations in ’05, the lefty suffered what was essentially a lost season. He tossed only 37 innings between rookie ball, High-A and Double-A, posting a 55/8 K/BB ratio. Already something of a red-headed stepchild in the scouting community, Braden fell off of the prospect radar yet again.

Beginning the ’07 campaign back at AA Midland, Braden quickly earned a promotion to Sacramento after posting a 13/3 K/BB ratio in 12 IP to start the year. With the River Cats (a dynastic AAA affiliate, if such an entity exists), Braden fooled 10.41 batters per nine innings with 2.53 BB/9. His FIP was a sparkling 2.64 in 64 frames.

The 6-1, 195 pounder also saw time with the A’s, at times filling in for the vastly talented but notoriously brittle Rich Harden in the rotation. Braden’s ERA (6.72) in 20 appearances (14 starts) made him look like the AL’s answer to John Van Benschoten, but the underlying results weren’t that bad. He posted a 4.50 FIP in 72.1 IP with 6.84 K/9 and 3.24 BB/9, but Braden was felled by a .355 BABIP and a 56.4% strand rate.

Back with Sacramento in 2008, Braden turned in ace-like numbers despite a “soft, softer, softest” arsenal of pitches. With 9.11 K/9 and 1.86 BB/9, he compiled a 3.50 FIP in 53.1 IP (HR were a slight problem, with 1.18 per nine). Braden was called up to Oakland on several occasions, making 19 appearances (10 starts) in total. Featuring 88 MPH cheese, a 78 MPH slider, a mid-70’s change and perhaps an occasional screwball, Braden managed a 4.57 FIP in 71.2 innings (5.15 K/9, 3.14 BB/9).

As a soft-tosser with flyball tendencies (career 37.7 GB%), Braden has little star potential. However, he’s in the right venue for a hurler who puts the ball in the air frequently (The Coliseum has depressed HR production by 13% over the past three years, according to the Bill James Handbook) and he’ll be in the rotation from the outset in 2009. CHONE forecasts a 4.24 FIP for Braden, with 6.79 K/9 and 3 BB/9. Most A’s fans and prospect mavens are anxiously awaiting the debuts of Cahill and Anderson, and deservedly so. But this former Red Raider is worth a look as he holds down the fort in the meantime.

The Washington Nationals and right-hander Shawn Hill had just about the most acrimonious off-season of any team/player combo. Hill, a sinker/slider hurler with a fair amount of talent (but also an unnerving propensity to end up in the trainer’s room or on the surgeon’s table), was eligible for arbitration.

The 27 year-old requested $775,000, while the Nats countered with $500K. Despite the relatively small divide, Washington decided to take its oft-injured starter to arbitration (the only other players reaching an arbitration hearing were Dioner Navarro and Dan Uggla). The Nats did what they do best, and lost the hearing. Hill was set to receive his $775K (in the arbitration process, either that player’s figure or the team’s figure is chosen; there’s no middle ground).

However, the Nats decided to release Hill recently instead of letting him compete in a dilapidated rotation that’s resting its fortune on Daniel Cabrera and Scott Olsen realizing that “hey, weren’t we supposed to be good or something?” Washington figures to save a very minimal amount of cash through Hill’s unceremonious boot: about $250K, once one considers termination pay as well as the money that will be spent on whomever occupies the roster spot.

If you need some War and Peace– sized reading material, take a look at Hill’s medical history:

Jul 1, 2006: Right elbow injury, 15-day DL (retroactive to June 29).
May 14, 2007: Elbow injury, 15-day DL.
Sep 24, 2007: Forearm injury, sidelined indefinitely.
Mar 20, 2008: Forearm injury, 15-day DL.
May 27, 2008: Missed 7 games (right elbow inflammation).
May 19, 2008: Right elbow inflammation, day-to-day.
Jun 26, 2008: Forearm injury, 15-day DL (retroactive to June 25th).

Okay, you get the point: Hill is the right-handed Mike Hampton, with the DNA of a Nomar Garciaparra/Nick Johnson love child. However, when Hill has taken the hill for the Expos/Nationals/glorified AAA affiliate, he’s been pretty effective. Equipped with an oft-utilized 90 MPH sinker (thrown 73.4% of the time; the pitch gets over 10 inches of movement in on the hands of righty batters), Hill has posted a career 4.11 FIP. He keeps the ball on the ground (50.1 GB%) while displaying adequate peripherals (5.67 K/9, 2.92 BB/9). Southpaws often get a good look at his offerings (.302/.355/.475 career), but same-side batters have generally been punchless (.271/.335/.394).

Inked to a minor-league deal by the Padres, Hill enters just about the best situation a starting pitcher could hope for. Petco Park is, of course, pitching Nirvana, suppressing runs by a full 20% over the past three seasons according to the Bill James Handbook.

In addition, the San Diego rotation is anything but settled. Jake Peavy headlines a cast of suspect characters, with Chris Young (whose extreme fly-balling ways are perfectly suited to the ballpark) and Mariners castoff Cha Seung Baek following. Former Giant Kevin Correia (5.10 FIP in 2008) and low-upside college arms Joshua B Geer and Wade Leblanc are other possibilities. Last we heard, Mark Prior is attempting to locate “The Island” from Lost, in hopes of time-jumping back to 2003.

The chances of Shawn Hill throwing a full complement of starts for the Padres are between slim and none, but he could provide some above league-average innings at a bargain-basement price. Hill is a zero-risk signing for the Padres, as well as fantasy owners. No one is going to spend a pick on a guy capable of injuring himself in the process of being activated from the DL, but he’s worth taking a look at if you find yourself in a pinch for pitching.

Being a second-tier young arm in the Tampa Bay Rays organization is a sure-fire path to anonymity. Everywhere you look, there’s a potential all-star taking the bump. There’s the Shields/Kazmir/Garza three-headed monster at the big league level (with everyone’s favorite southpaw, David Price, waiting in the wings).

In the upper minors, there’s Wade Davis and his low-90’s/hammer curve mix, the rehabbing Jacob McGee and the impressive track record (if ordinary stuff) of Mitch Talbot. And don’t look now, but there’s another wave of absurdly gifted hurlers in the offing, led by Jeremy Hellickson, Nick Barnese, Matt Moore and Kyle Lobstein.

As such, it’s very easy for good-not-great pitchers to get lost in the shuffle (see Sonnanstine, Andy). Two guys with little fanfare who might get the chance to crack Tampa’s rotation out of spring training are righties Jeffrey Niemann and Jason Hammel.

If it feels as though Niemann has been kicking around prospect charts for half a decade, well, that’s because he has. The 6-9, 280 pound behemoth was supposed to become one of those untouchable building blocks of a contending Rays club when he was selected 4th overall in the 2004 draft, but he has compiled all of 16 frames in the bigs to this point. The $5.2 million man, signed to a major league contract, is now optionless to boot.

Niemann has dealt with shoulder maladies (including surgery during the ’05 offseason), but he’s never had much problem fooling batters with a low-to-mid 90’s heater and an occasionally plus slider. The former Owl has punched out over a hitter per inning in the minors (9.12 K/9). His control is just so-so, with 3.4 BB/9, and he once again battled a shoulder injury last April after a brief stint in Tampa.

Durability is an issue moving forward- the 26 year-old has never cracked the 150-inning mark in a season, and his stabbing arm action makes more than a few people nervous. Baseball America also notes that he “requires more time than most pitchers to get loose”, so the ‘pen might not be some panacea for his shoulder woes. Despite his warts, Niemann would rank as one of the better pitching prospects in some organizations.

Hammel is not a prospect anymore, but the 2002 10th-round pick has yet to really define a role on the club, pinballing back and forth between starting and relieving over the past three seasons. Hammel hasn’t exactly lit it up in either spot, with FIP’s of 5.26, 5.05 and 5.25 from 2006 to 2008.

His deep repertoire (low-90’s fastball, hard mid-80’s slider, mid-70’s curve and mid-80’s changeup) worked wonders at AAA (8.3 K/9, 3.16 BB/9 in 259 IP), but his lack out of an out-pitch harms him at the highest level. The big boys haven’t fished at Hammel’s off-speed stuff as much (6.08 K/9, 22.3 O-Swing%), and he does not have the razor-sharp control (4.17 BB/9) or groundball tendencies (43.8 GB%) to stick his head out above a sea of other pitching talent.

That’s not to say Hammel can’t be useful in the back end of a rotation- he’s just in the wrong organization. There’s little distinguishing a guy like Hammel from, say, Pittsburgh’s Jeff Karstens, save for opportunity. It’s just that Hammel must wage war with Price to secure a spot, while Karstens takes on the Virgil Vasquez’s of the world.

What should we make of Adam Miller?

The right-handed pitching prospect has been frustrating the Cleveland Indians organization and its fans since he was selected out of a Texas high school with the 31st overall selection in the 2003 draft. Now 24, he has yet to make his MLB debut despite entering his seventh pro season (Top high-school prospects usually take about four years to sniff the Majors).

Miller has lasted a full season in the minors only once – in 2006 and he won 15 games in Double-A with a 2.75 ERA (3.03 FIP), 129 hits allowed in 153.2 innings, as well as rates of 2.52 BB/9 and 9.20 K/9. The next two seasons at Triple-A, he managed a total of just 25 games (17 starts) and allowed 94 hits in 94 innings. The latest injury problem for Miller has been a tendon in a finger on his pitching hand and it’s already caused him issues this spring, which is worrisome to say the least.

Miller entered the spring with a very good shot of making the team as a reliever, which would have theoretically helped his chances of staying healthy. He’s probably Triple-A bound for the third straight season now, but he could make his MLB debut before long. Cleveland has pretty good depth in the starting rotation, although few can match Miller’s potential – as his stuff is still solid with a fastball that can touch the upper 90s with a dominating slider. The health of two fellow injury-prone starters, Carl Pavano and Anthony Reyes, could eventually open up a spot for Miller. New closer Kerry Wood, formerly of the Cubs, is also an injury risk, which could create a hole in the bullpen.

From a fantasy perspective, Miller will likely be extremely frustrating – as a starter or reliever. He has the stuff to dominate – and he could be an impact arm during the 2009 season at the Major League level. But he could also break your heart if you rely on him too heavily.

Spring training just does not seem to agree with Angels starting pitchers. Last year, the top two projected arms in the rotation (John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar) were felled by health issues. While ace Lackey (triceps) returned in mid-May and turned in another solid campaign, number two man Escobar (shoulder) never threw a pitch for the big league club in 2008.

Unfortunately, a health issue has once again knocked out LAA’s projected number two starter, as Ervin Santana will begin the 2009 campaign on the disabled list with a sprained medial collateral ligament (also known as UCL, the stabilizing ligament in the elbow made famous by Tommy John Surgery). The timing is especially disappointing for both the Angels and fantasy owners, as Santana had just turned in a highly promising season (4.55 K/BB ratio, 3.30 FIP) an inked a four-year, $30M contract extension during the offseason.

With Santana shelved, the Angels must now select two starters from a group that includes Dustin Moseley, Shane Loux and Nicholas Adenhart.

Moseley began the 2008 season as Los Angeles’ fifth starter, making five early season starts. In all, the right-hander made 10 starts for the club as well as two relief appearances. The results look downright ugly (6.79 ERA), but an unangelic .379 BABIP did him no favors. Moseley’s FIP was a more tolerable 4.52 in 50.1 innings of work, as he posted rates of 6.62 K/9 and 3.58 BB/9.

His work in AAA, however, inspires little confidence. Moseley struck out 6.4 batters per nine innings and walked 2.62, but he surrendered nearly 1.8 HR/9. The 6-4, 190 pounder was once considered a gifted prospect (the Reds drafted him in the first round back in 2000), but he’s definitely more of a finesse pitcher these days. The 27 year-old features an 88-90 MPH fastball, a mid-70’s curve and a low-80’s changeup.

Loux is another low-octane right-hander. The 6-2, 235 pounder, formerly a Tigers prospect, went five years between big league performances. After last reaching the majors in 2003, Loux tossed 16 frames for the Angels last season. Loux spent some time with the Royals in ’06 and was released by the Mariners prior to 2007, at which point he contemplated hanging up his cleats. While donning the tools of ignorance a pitching prospect in an indoor facility, Loux switched places with the guy for a few pitches and impressed the facility owner. The owner referred Loux to an Angels scout. Returning to the mound in ’08, Loux posted rates of 5.02 K/9 and 2.61 BB/9 with AAA Salt Lake City. The 29 year-old kills some worms (51.8 GB% in AAA) with a 90 MPH sinker and a hard mid-80’s slider.

Adenhart entered the 2008 season as the pride and joy of the Angels’ player development system. The lanky right-hander was considered a premier prospect in the 2004 amateur draft, but an elbow injury caused him to fall to the 14th round. Undeterred, the Angels ponied up $710K for Adenhart’s services. Possessing a low-90’s heater, a sharp curveball and a changeup, Adenhart got his career off to a great start. After punching out over a batter per inning in rookie ball in 2005, he split the ’06 season between Low-A and High-A, whiffing around eight hitters per nine innings while issuing around 2.5 walks per nine.

Bumped up to AA for the 2007 campaign, Adenhart threw 153 innings with rates of 6.82 K/9 and 3.82 BB/9. He got off to a superficially impressive start in 2008 at AAA and received a call-up to the majors, but he was beaten like a drum in three starts: 12 IP, 18 hits, 12 runs, 4/13 K/BB ratio. Returned to Salt Lake, Adenhart struck out an adequate 6.81 per nine but his control took a step backward (4.64 BB/9). Despite his struggles, the 22 year-old still has plenty of believers in the scouting community (Baseball America named him LAA’s #1 prospect during the offseason). However, Adenhart’s turbulent big league introduction and erratic work at AAA suggest that he’s not big league ready.

With spring training in full swing and most drafts set to begin, now seems like the perfect time to recap which starting pitchers might see a dip or rebound in their respective performances. Here’s a quick look at the five hurlers with the largest discord between their Earned Run Average and Fielding Independent ERA (FIP). Let’s take a look at the guys who couldn’t catch a break in 2008.

1.) Livan Hernandez, Mets (Twins and Rockies in ’08)
6.05 ERA, 4.94 FIP

With a fastball that couldn’t tear through tissue paper (83.7 MPH), Livan surrendered an astounding 257 hits in 180 innings pitched. Sure, his .345 BABIP will likely fall somewhat, but Hernandez is still to be avoided in all fantasy leagues. His lone skill at this point is showing up for work every fifth day. Hernandez’s combination of average pitching and durability was once quite valuable (he tallied Win Values of 4.5 in 2003 and 4.6 in 2004 while with the Expos), but there’s nothing to see here now.

2.) Kevin Millwood, Rangers
5.07 ERA, 4.02 FIP

Millwood’s peripherals weren’t terrible last year (6.67 K/9, 2.61 BB/9), but he was felled by a .366 BABIP, highest among all qualified starters. The 34 year-old did surrender line drives aplenty, however (25.3 LD%).

3.) Javier Vazquez, Braves (White Sox in ’08)
4.67 ERA, 3.74 FIP

Vazquez has long been the subject of head-scratching in sabermetric circles. Low-90’s heat, a pair of nasty breaking balls, a solid changeup, strong K/BB ratios…Javy looks like an ace. However, despite strong career rates (7.99 K/9, 2.39 BB/9, 3.93 FIP), Vazquez’s ERA sits at a fair-but-unspectacular 4.32. Vazquez always seems to go five innings strong, only to groove that One Bad Pitch (TM) that makes his outing look a bit less impressive. His career OPS against in innings 1-5 is .721. In the sixth inning? .867.

Javy posted another strong campaign in ’08 (8.64 K/9, 2.64 BB/9), but a .328 BABIP made his performance appear worse than it really was. Don’t be surprised if this flyball hurler posts a sub-four ERA, now that he’s out of The Cell and back in the NL.

4.) Ian Snell, Pirates
5.42 ERA, 4.57 FIP

Snell battled some health issues and his control in ’08 (4.87 BB/9). On the plus side, he retained his velocity and still punched out a decent 7.39 batters per nine innings. Behind one of the most execrable defensive clubs in the majors (the Bucs ranked 21st in team UZR/150 and 28th in Defensive Efficiency), Snell had the misfortune of surrendering a .358 BABIP. If he wants to get back to his promising 2007 form (4.01 FIP), Snell is going to have to cut the free passes and find something to quell left-handed batters. Relying almost exclusively on a fastball/slider combo, Snell has allowed the average southpaw to turn into late-career Todd Helton against him (.301/.387/.494).

5.) Andy Pettitte, Yankees
4.54 ERA, 3.71 FIP

In many respects, Pettitte’s 2008 season mirrored his work from the previous two years with the Astros and Yankees. He posted his lowest FIP since 2005, with a sturdy 2.87 K/BB ratio. Unfortunately, the porous Bronx Bombers D let Pettitte down, and he allowed a .339 BABIP. As a pitcher who generates a fair amount of groundballs, Pettitte is going to need better work from 2B Robinson Cano (a plus defender in ’07, but he came in at -6.4 UZR/150 in ’08) while living with SS Derek Jeter’s limited range. New first baseman Mark Teixeira should help matters to some extent. A switch-hitting force, Tex was also a vacuum with the Braves and Angels in 2008 (9.4 UZR/150).

With spring training in full swing and most drafts set to begin, now seems like the perfect time to recap which starting pitchers might see a dip or rebound in their respective performances. Here’s a quick look at the five hurlers with the largest discord between their Earned Run Average and Fielding Independent ERA (FIP). Let’s start with those who were a little too fortunate in 2008.

1.) Armando Galarraga, Tigers
3.59 ERA, 4.81 FIP

Acquired before the ’08 season from the Rangers for a nondescript minor league outfielder, Galarraga turned in the best starting line for a disappointing Tigers rotation. However, his peripherals (6.35 K/9, 2.97 BB/9) suggest that he’s more likely to post an ERA north of four and a half if he retains similar rates next season. Galarraga’s .250 BABIP (third-lowest among all starters) is sure to rise.

2.) Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
2.90 ERA, 4.03 FIP

Matsuzaka was the subject of one of the first articles on Rotographs, where I pointed out several trends that portend to a less shiny ERA in 2009. Dice-K missed bats (8.27 K/9), but he was the beneficiary of a .267 BABIP, a high strand rate (80.6 LOB%) and a low HR/FB rate (6.1%). Add in a maddening tendency to dish out free passes (5.05 BB/9), and Matsuzaka’s year begins to lose some of its luster.

3.) Johan Santana, Mets
2.53 ERA, 3.51 FIP

We’re obviously speaking in relative terms here: Santana’s FIP ranked 16th among all starters, as he whiffed 7.91 batters per nine innings with 2.42 BB/9. The soon-to-be 30 year-old is still one of the prime starters in the NL, if not quite the cyborg that tore through the AL earlier in the decade. With a lower strand rate (his 82.6% mark was the highest among all starters), Santana’s ERA will likely revert to great as opposed to otherworldly.

4.) Joe Saunders, Angels
3.41 ERA, 4.36 FIP

A former first-rounder out of Virginia Tech, Saunders looks like he should fool batters. The 6-3 southpaw has fair velocity on his fastball (91 MPH) and complements the heater with a changeup, curveball and occasional slider. While Saunders possesses solid control (2.41 BB/9), his K rate (4.68 per nine) and low BABIP (.267) suggest that he’s more Average Joe than fledging ace.

5.) Gavin Floyd, White Sox
3.84 ERA, 4.77 FIP

The perennial prospect finally turned in a full season in a major league rotation, tossing 206.1 frames for the White Sox. The former Phillies farm hand did perform better in the second half of the year (6.65 K/9, 2.18 BB/9 after the all-star break, 6.04 K/9 and 3.79 BB/9 prior), but Floyd had auspicious luck on balls put in play (.268 BABIP) and southpaws continued to rake against him (.259/.340/.485).

The Atlanta Braves’ starting pitching picture (say that three times fast) has changed dramatically since the 2008 season came to a disappointing end for the organization. Once a strength for the club, the starting rotation was inconsistent in 2008 despite the emergence of Jair Jurrjens and, to a certain degree, Jorge Campillo.

The club has worked hard to improve the rotation and it added veterans Javier Vazquez, Tom Glavine, and Derek Lowe over the winter. The Braves organization also brought in Japanese starter Kenshin Kawakami. If all the veterans are healthy on opening day, Jurrjens will likely take the fifth spot in the rotation with Campillo sliding to the bullpen.

Should a starting pitcher succumb to injury, though, Tommy Hanson will be waiting in the wings to prove himself. The right-hander broke out in a big way in 2008 by posting a 0.90 ERA in seven High-A starts. He allowed just 15 hits in 40 innings of work and posted rates of 2.48 BB/9 and 11.03 K/9. Hanson then was promoted to Double-A where he allowed 70 hits in 98 innings and posted rates of 3.77 BB/9 and 10.47 K/9.

After the season, Hanson appeared in the Arizona Fall League and dominated some of the best prospects in baseball by posting a 0.63 ERA in 28.2 innings. He allowed just 10 hits and struck out 49 batters. The 6’6” pitcher needs to induce a few more ground balls and left-handed batters have hit 30 points higher against Hanson than righties in his career. His repertoire includes four pitches that are average or better: an 88-93 mph fastball, slider, curveball and change-up.

With all the moves made by the big club in the 2008-09 off-season, Hanson is all but certain to begin the season in Triple-A but he seems to have surpassed both Jo-Jo Reyes, and Charlie Morton on the depth chart, despite the fact both hurlers have big league experience. Given enough innings, Hanson could have a significant impact on the Major League club in 2009. He’s certainly one of the best starting pitcher prospects in keeper leagues.

As a cancer survivor, Jon Lester is a great human interest story and one of the easiest players to root for in the game. However, as hyperbolic as it might sound, the Red Sox lefty might just be underrated in fantasy circles heading into the 2009 season. Here are some reasons why the 25 year-old should be high on your draft list:

Improved Peripherals

In his first full season in the majors, Lester posted a solid 2.3 K/BB ratio and a 3.64 Fielding Independent ERA. Control had always been something of an issue for Jon as he climbed the minor league ladder (he walked about 3.8 batters per nine innings), and remained so during stints with Boston in 2006 (4.76 BB/9) and 2007 (4.43 BB/9). In ’08, however, he pared that walk rate down to 2.82 per nine innings.

His K rate (6.5 per nine) was essentially league average, but he did fool more batters as the year progressed. After posting 5.9 K/9 during the first half of the season, Lester struck out 7.4 per nine innings during the home stretch.

More Groundballs

After posting groundball rates of 40.6% in ’06 and 34.4% in ’07, Lester improved his percentage of worm burners to 47.5. The reason for the increase would appear to be an interesting hybrid sinker pitch that Lester picked up. Earlier this offseason, I examined Jon’s pitch F/X data and found the following:

“I found out that what we’re seeing on Lester’s chart is actually the combination of a four-seam and one-seam fastball. That’s right, one-seam. Lester throws an offshoot of a sinker, gripped in an unusual manner along just one seam of the baseball…Lester’s use of the one-seamer may also explain a pretty big uptick in his groundball percentage.”

If the uptick in grounders holds, Lester shouldn’t have many issues with the long ball.

Improved Velocity

If there’s one concern with Lester heading in to the 2009 season, it’s his rather dramatic increase in innings pitched. The 6-2, 190 pounder was one of the “Verducci Effect” candidates that we identified back in December, as he tossed 74 more frames in 2008 than he did the previous campaign. While velocity is just one sector of what goes into pitching, Lester did throw harder as the season progressed, suggesting that he was not tiring on his way to a career-high workload:

Lester’s fastball velocity by month:
April: 90.8 MPH
May: 91.5 MPH
June: 91.8 MPH
July: 92.4 MPH
Aug: 92.5 MPH
Sept: 93.7 MPH

There’s a lot to like in Jon Lester. Better strike zone control, a devastating cutter/curve combo, improved fastball velocity, a higher percentage of grounders induced..the list goes on. Don’t be surprised if this southpaw puts his hat in the ring of AL Cy Young contenders in 2009.

Remember “Homer Bailey, top pitching prospect”? It wasn’t that long ago that scouts were drooling over the lanky Texan, whose mid-90’s heat and hammer curve impressed Cincinnati brass enough to use the 7th overall pick in the 2004 amateur draft on him. Dubbing him the “undisputed class among the nation’s high school crop”, Baseball America extolled his virtues: Bailey possessed “the best fastball (92-96 mph), the best righthanded breaking ball (a hard downer curveball), the best command and the most polish among high schoolers in the draft.”

While that was certainly a heaping helping of praise, the La Grange native lived up to his flame-throwing billing in the earlier stages of his career. Bailey made his full-season debut in 2005, with Dayton of the Low-A Midwest League. Bailey spit fire in 103.2 frames for the Dragons, punching out 10.9 batters per nine innings. He was just as likely to burn himself as opponents, however, with 5.38 BB/9. Despite the strike-zone hiccups, BA named Bailey the 38th-best prospect in the minors (1st in the Cincy system) prior to the 2006 season.

Bailey began his ’06 campaign with Sarasota of the High-A Florida State League, tossing 70.2 innings for the club. The 6-4, 205 pounder continued to maul batters at the lower levels (10.06 K/9), but he also nearly halved his walk rate, issuing 2.8 free passes per nine innings. The sharper command led to a shiny 3.21 FIP. Pumping gas and showing better polish, Bailey was bumped up to the Southern League, where he pitched 68 innings for the Lookouts. Homer got lucky with homers (0.13 HR/9) and he walked more batters (3.71 BB/9), but his 10.19 K/9 served notice that the Texan could miss bats at the upper levels. BA really showed Bailey some love that offseason, as he was named the 5th-best prospect in the game.

With such lofty accolades, Bailey entered 2007 with Sistine Chapel-high expectations. He was sent to AAA Louisville, where some cracks began to appear in said chapel. His K rate was good, not great (7.89 K/9 in 67.1 IP), but he walked 4.28 per nine, suggesting that he needed some additional time to hone his craft in the minors. However, Bailey was summoned to Cincinnati in early June, where he struggled to keep his head above water. Bailey’s K/BB was an ugly 1-to-1, as he both whiffed and walked 5.56 hitters per nine innings in 45.1 frames of work. Utilizing a 92.4 MPH fastball (thrown 71.3% of the time) and that patented mid-70’s curve (14.7%), Bailey posted a 4.92 FIP. Despite the rocky introduction, few seemed worried about Homer’s long-term potential: he checked in as the 9th-best talent in the minors, per BA.

Returned to Louisville to kick off 2008, Bailey improved somewhat, though his performance fell under the level that one might expect from a top-of-the-line farm product. The 22 year-old posted rates of 7.76 K/9 and 3.72 BB/9, with a 3.96 FIP in 111.1 IP. He got his second shot with the Reds during the summer, but things continued to go awry in the show. In 36.1 innings, he didn’t fool many batters (4.46 K/9), nor was he stingy with the walks (4.21 B/9). His FIP was a Boeing-level 6.41, as Homer lived up to his name with 1.98 big flys per nine innings. His once-vaunted velocity was mundane (91.5 MPH) and mechanically-minded analysts were none too pleased with that they saw.

Bailey has barely managed 5 K’s per nine in his short major league career. Drawing conclusions off of 80-some innings is a terrible idea, but he has had issues putting hitters away in pitcher’s counts. Courtesy of the insanely useful Baseball-Reference, we find that Bailey has surrendered a .287/.359/.440 line with two strikes between 2007 and 2008. For comparison, the NL average in two-strike counts in ’08 was .185/.256/.284. While the average NL pitcher turned batters into Tony Pena Jr. with two strikes, Bailey allows them to imitate Mark DeRosa.

Heading into 2009, Bailey has very little shot of cracking the Reds’ starting rotation. That might be for the best, considering his tenuous mechanics and pitch sequencing suggest that he could use some extra seasoning. It would be silly to write off Bailey, but some of the shine is definitely off of his star.