With a month’s worth of games in the books, let’s take a quick look at the starting pitchers who have significantly over performed or underperformed, based on their Fielding Independent ERA (FIP). By taking a gander at those core numbers (strikeouts, walks, homers), we can get a better idea of which hot starts are unlikely to last or which “struggling” starters might be in for a rebound. First up, those who have posted an ERA significantly better than their FIP would indicate. These are the guys who might slip going forward, if their peripherals don’t improve.

Kevin Millwood, Rangers

2.13 ERA, 4.37 FIP

This is certainly change for Millwood, whose FIP outpaced his ERA from 2006-2008. The 34 year-old has hardly been bad (Millwood isn’t missing many bats with 5.21 K/9, but his walk rate is a nifty 1.89 per nine). It’s just that his .220 BABIP and a very high strand rate (86.7% of runners put on base have been left out in the cold) make his work look ace-like as opposed to just slightly above league-average.

Ian Snell, Pirates

3.72 ERA, 5.90 FIP

Snell is one of many Bucco hurlers outperforming his FIP thus far- Pittsburgh’s staff has a collective 3.38 ERA, but a much less impressive FIP of 4.75. Snell rode the opposite wagon in 2008, posting a middling 4.57 FIP but a ghastly 5.42 ERA. The righty has an unimpressive 1.11 K/BB ratio in 2009, the product of 6.21 K/9 and a Blassian 5.59 BB/9. Just 43.4% of his pitches have been in the strike zone (48.9% MLB average).

Chris Volstad, Marlins

2.67 ERA, 4.83 FIP

Toting a low-90’s sinker and a big curve, Volstad was never considered a power pitcher in the minors (his career K rate was 5.9 per nine innings.) So far in ’09, though? The 6-7 righty has punched out 8.01 per nine, while still generating grounders (53.2 GB%). His control hasn’t been very sharp (3.56 BB/9) and his BABIP is absurdly low (.182, lowest among all starters). Volstad surely won’t keep a sub-three ERA, but there are actually a number of positives here: in addition to the extra whiffs and continued grounders, Volstad has been rather unlucky in the HR department (1.48 HR/9 and a wacky-high 19.2 HR/FB%). If you view his work through Expected FIP (XFIP) instead (which normalizes HR/FB rates to root out outlier performances on flyballs), Volstad checks in at 4.09. He’s not an ace, but there’s a lot to like.

Braden Looper, Brewers

2.45 ERA, 4.54 FIP

Looper has basically been his league-average self in Bratwurst Town, though he’s both whiffed (6.55 K/9) and walked (4.5 BB/9) more than normal (career 5.25 K/9 and 2.87 BB/9). The former Cardinal, Marlin, Met, Cardinal again and now Brewer has lucked out in stranding runners (86.5% strand rate).

Edwin Jackson, Tigers

2.25 ERA, 4.24 FIP

Jackson has gotten a lot of play as a breakout performer in 2009, and to his credit he has shown some improvement in Mo Town. His previously oscillating control (his career BB/9 is 4.37) has been pretty crisp (2.25 BB/9 in ’09), and batters are offering at a higher percentage of the pitches that he throws out of the strike zone (28.5 Outside Swing%, well above his 21.3% career average and the 24.3% MLB average). He’s also avoided being beaten like a drum by left-handed batters, holding southpaws to a .497 OPS in 2009 (his career mark is .810).

So, Jackson performed like a pretty good mid-rotation starter in April. But let’s not get too ahead of ourselves here: his BABIP is .233, and he’s still missing bats at a clip slightly below the league average (Jackson has K’d 5.91 per nine this season).

Now that we have several appearances worth of information to examine, this seems like a good time to take a brief look at some of the high-profile rookie pitchers in the majors this spring. How are Anderson, Porcello, Cahill et. al faring so far? After taking a peek at Porcello and Perry last time around, let’s now shift our focus out West to Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill.

The Oakland Athletics are off to an inauspicious start in 2009. While fortunately residing in a division where a mid-80’s win total may well get the job done, the A’s have nonetheless collectively hit like a team of evil Jose Vidro doppelgangers (dead-last in wOBA at .288, while posting an MLB-worst .322 SLG% that’s 49 points lower than 29th-ranked Cincinnati).

While the bats have been slack, the pitching hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire thus far either: Oakland’s starters have compiled a 5.06 FIP, 24th in the majors. Two of the culprits in the early going are Anderson and Cahill, whose rookie years have gotten off to bumpy starts.

Anderson (profiled here) has a 5.24 FIP in 23.1 frames. The 6-4 lefty has displayed his deep four-pitch mix, with a 91 MPH fastball (thrown 55.2% of the time), a 82.7 MPH slider (29.8%), a 74.7 MPH curve (4.4%) and a 83.3 MPH changeup (10.7%).

Looking at Anderson’s Pitch F/X data, you can see that his heater has slightly more tailing action in on lefties than most southpaw fastballs (7.4 inches, compared to the 6.5 inch average for LH). His slider has shown unusual depth: the pitch has -3.4 inches of vertical movement (meaning that the pitch drops 3.4 inches more than a ball thrown without spin). For comparison, the MLB average for lefty sliders is positive 1.8 inches.

To this point, however, that four-pitch assortment hasn’t yielded many swings and misses. Anderson has 14 K’s (5.4 per nine innings), while his contact percentage (88.6%) is well above the 80.6% MLB average.

On the positive side, the 21 year-old has continued a career-long trend of inducing grounders (54.5 GB%), and his control hasn’t been too shabby (3.09 BB/9). His FIP might look kind of ugly, but that’s partially the product of an elevated home run rate (1.54 HR/9) and HR/fly ball figure (13.8 HR/FB%- the average tends to hover around 11%).

Perhaps Anderson hasn’t hit the ground running, but he has held his own as a rookie whose only upper-level experience in the minors includes 31 innings at AA and a playoff stint with AAA Sacramento.

While Anderson has run into some occasional trouble, Trevor Cahill has found the strike zone about as often as A’s hitters have found themselves on base: it’s a rare occurrence. Oakland’s other prized pitching prospect (examined in more detail here) has dished out free passes like they were bobble head give-aways, walking 15 batters in 20 innings of work. Couple that lack of precision with just 7 K’s, and you have the recipe for a nasty 6.33 FIP.

While Cahill also features a fastball, slider, curve and a change, he has chosen to work almost exclusively with his cheese. Thrown at an average of 88 MPH, Cahill has thrown his fastball 85.8% of the time. That’s the third-highest rate in the majors, trailing only sinkerballer Aaron Cook and Bartolo Colon. Cahill’s other offerings have made just brief cameos: a 82.9 MPH slider (thrown 4.1%), a 78.4 MPH curve (2.2%) and a 78 MPH changeup (7.9%).

Given the 21 year-old’s difficulty in placing his sinker with the zone, opposing hitters have chosen to lay off Cahill’s pitches for the most part. Cahill is garnering swings on pitches thrown outside of the strike zone just 19.8% of the time, below the 24.3% MLB average. Overall, opponents have swung at Cahill’s stuff 40.5% of the time (44.5% MLB average).

Oakland’s dynamic duo might not be off to a rousing start, but they remain highly promising young arms who have been forced to make quite the dramatic leap in competition and skill. Anderson and Cahill should be near the top of any keeper league rankings for young starters.

Compared to the rest of the three-game series, the match-up on Sunday between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees was fairly unassuming. There were not 27 runs scored collectively and the game did not end in walk-off fashion in extra innings. However, two key players for both organizations’ futures squared off against one another.

Mark Melancon was called into the game for the Yankees in the seventh inning of the game, which was eventually won 4-1 by Boston. The right-handed reliever, making his MLB debut, worked two scoreless innings and allowed just one hit and one walk. He also struck out one batter and hit outfielder Jason Bay with a pitch. Melancon, 24, was originally drafted out of the University of Arizona in the ninth round of the 2006 draft, although he could have been a first-round pick if not for an elbow strain that later required Tommy John surgery. Melancon struggled a bit with his control in his debut (12 of 22 pitches were strikes) but he showed excellent velocity and life on his fastball.

From the other dugout, minor league starter Michael Bowden emerged and also pitched the seventh and eighth innings. He had been recalled from Triple-A before the game to give the relievers some much-needed relief. The right-hander did not allow a run, a walk or a hit over two innings. He stuck out two. Only 22, Bowden was able to mix his plus curveball and fastball very effectively to dominate some very good hitters. In most organizations, he would already be in the starting rotation. In Boston, though, the pitching depth affords him the luxury of polishing his repertoire and approach at the Triple-A level, while also providing valuable insurance for situations like that which occurred on Sunday. Bowden was a supplemental first round selection out of an Illinois high school during the 2005 draft.

Bowden was sent back down to Triple-A after the game on Sunday, making room for veteran shortstop Julio Lugo, who came off the disabled list. Melancon will remain with the Yankees for now, with veteran reliever Brian Bruney on the disabled list. Neither player will likely have a huge impact on their respective clubs in 2009, but both are good bets moving forward for 2010 and beyond: Bowden with the ceiling of a No. 2 or 3 starter and Melancon with closer potential.

A fair number of stars, like Chad Billingsley and Dan Haren, are slated for two starts in Week 4. But since you are going to start those guys anyway, let’s take a look at some other pitchers you may be on the fence about who are projected for two starts in those leagues with weeks starting on Monday.

Joe Blanton – Yes, he has yet to win a game and holds an ugly 7.31 ERA. He also has two home starts against soft tossers Shairon Martis and Livan Hernandez, pitchers against whom his teammates should be able to provide him with some runs. And Blanton does have 16 strikeouts in 16 innings this season.

Edwin Jackson – In four games this season, Jackson has a nifty 1.04 WHIP along with a 2.77 ERA. This week he gets two home starts. On Tuesday he is scheduled to go against Chien-Ming Wang, who has not been setting the world on fire, and Sunday he goes up against Cliff Lee, who already has three losses on the year.

Kyle Lohse – In home games this year, Lohse is 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA. In his lone road start, he gave up four ER in five IP. In 2008, his road ERA was 1.11 runs higher than his home mark. Lohse has road starts in Atlanta and at Washington this week.

Chris Young – In this week’s Trade Possibilities column, I highlighted Young as a player to move. Some thought that was over the top, given he had just one bad start. This week could be a bad one for Young, as he has road starts in Colorado and at Los Angeles. In the last two years, Young has allowed 11 runs in 18 IP in Coors Field and 16 runs in 16 IP at Dodger Stadium.

Barry Zito – In 2008, Pablo Sandoval caught Zito five times and the lefty had a 3.21 ERA with four quality starts when Sandoval was his catcher. In his last outing, Zito pitched seven scoreless innings with Sandoval behind the dish. Maybe manager Bruce Bochy, a former catcher, can connect the dots and make Sandoval Zito’s personal catcher on a full-time basis. Zito has home starts against the Dodgers and Rockies.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 4 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Billingsley, Sabathia, Zambrano, Haren, Shields, Danks, Oswalt, Lilly, Lee, Meche, Jurrjens, Nolasco, Verlander, Millwood, Cueto, Wolf, Maine, Penny, Baker, Guthrie, Wakefield, Wang, Bush, Webb, Purcey, Pineiro, Looper, Lannan, Anderson, Niemann, Bannister, Martis, Hernandez, Richmond, Loux, Hammel, Jakubauskas, Geer and Harrison.

As the sixth overall draft pick out of Cal State Fullerton in 2005, you might think the bar for Ricky Romero would be set pretty high. However, as many of us know, the first round of the amateur draft is anything but an exact science in Major League Baseball – and Romero also had the misfortune of being taken right before a player by the name of Troy Tulowitzki, who finished second in the National League Rookie of the Year voting in 2007.

In pro ball, Romero rarely showed the form that made him the first pitcher selected in the 2005 draft, besting Tampa Bay’s Wade Townsend by two slots and New York’s Mike Pelfrey by three. Romero made it to Double-A in his first full season in 2006 but the southpaw then spent parts of three seasons at that level before tasting Triple-A for seven starts in 2008. At the time of the draft, Romero was considered the 13th-best draft prospect by Baseball America. Here is what the scouting report said on the left-hander prior to the draft:

Romero has three solid, major league-ready pitches that he can throw for strikes almost at will, including a fastball that sits at 90-91 mph and touches 93-94…. But Romero gets his highest grades for his makeup, temperament and competitive zeal. He is an excellent student of the game who understands the science of pitching, and is a master at controlling the tempo of a game. He often has one poor inning a game, gets mad at himself and responds by pitching better the rest of the way.

Considered an advanced pitcher, Romero spent far more time in the minors than was expected. His command and control also took a huge step back as he posted a 3.80 BB/9 in his pro career prior to 2009, as well as a walk rate above 4.00 BB/9 at Double-A or above. As he struggled on the mound, Romero’s “competitive zeal” also took a hit along with his confidence and he began to pitch away from contact. Last year in High-A ball, Romero allowed 139 hits 121.2 innings with rates of 4.07 BB/9 and 5.77 K/9. In Triple-A, he allowed 42 hits in 42.2 innings and had rates of 4.22 BB/9 and 8.02 K/9.

Toronto entered this spring desperately needing pitching, with serious injuries to two young starters: Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan. Another injured pitcher, Casey Janssen, who was expected back at the beginning of the season to help soften the blow, had a set back. Two other southpaw hurlers, Brad Mills and Brett Cecil, had seemingly passed Romero on the depth chart and one or both of them were set to win a spot with spring training winding down.

However, with Romero on the cusp of being demoted to the minor-league camp, Jays pitching coach Brad Arnsberg stepped in and asked management to rethink the decision. The pitching coach had an idea. He made some tweaks to Romero’s mechanics, moved his feet, and lessened the amount that the former No. 1 pick was throwing across his body. Miraculously, Romero’s command and control improved almost overnight. He was reborn.

The results can be seen in his young MLB season to date. In his debut, he out-dueled one of the Top 10 young pitchers in baseball in Detroit’s Rick Porcello. In his second game, he held Minnesota to just two runs in eight innings. In his third start, just yesterday against Oakland, Romero shutout the A’s over seven innings. In three games, he’s allowed 19 hits in 21 innings and posted rates of 1.71 BB/9 (!) and 5.57 K/9. As well, he’s caused 28 groundball outs compared to 19 flyball outs.

In his game against Oakland, Romero was mixing four pitches (FB, CB, SL, CH) well and commanding all four in the strike zone. As well, his fastball that was struggling to sit around 90 mph last year, was hitting 94 mph – a velocity he has not seen consistently since his college days.

You cannot look at Romero’s first three starts and make a definitive statement about his potential for 2009 or his future beyond the present, but his start to the year is definitely encouraging, especially since the improvements can be traced back to a mechanical adjustment. As well, the left-hander showed this type of potential in college and he’s still just 24 years old. It’s far too early to call Romero an ace-in-waiting, or even a guaranteed No. 3 starter, but his future definitely has a brighter shine to it.

Perhaps the left-hander will one day be able to say, “Tulo-who?”

During the offseason, we touched upon the absolutely ridiculous range of the Seattle Mariners’ new outfield. With imports Endy Chavez and Franklin Gutierrez joining Ichiro Suzuki out in the pasture, the M’s figured to possess three center field-worthy gloves to cover the gaps (Ken Griffey Jr. has since been added, to fill the Raul Ibanez comedic relief role).

The potential gain of a Chavez/Gutierrez/Suzuki alignment over Seattle’s consortium of laggardly leather in 2008 is huge, with a swing of perhaps 5 wins (more, if Chavez continues to see the field regularly). Granted, some of those gains will be returned in the hitting department, but the stable of fleet-footed defenders had to be a welcome addition to a pitch-to-contact rotation (M’s starters ranked 22nd in K/9 in 2008, with 5.92).

While Ichiro (ulcer) has only recently returned to the field following his first ever DL stint, Chavez and Gutierrez have put on a clinic in left and center. In ’08, the Mariners’ outfield posted a collective -4.6 UZR/150, meaning that Seattle’s fly-catchers were about five runs worse than average per 150 games played.

In 2009, the M’s outfield has compiled a spit-take worthy 56.9 UZR/150, lapping the field by a significant margin (the Rockies are currently second, with 36 UZR/150). Granted, we are talking about a small sample of games, and no bold claims should be made on defensive numbers in mid-April, but the change in quality has been nothing short of stunning.

Currently, Mariners pitchers have allowed a .128 Batting Average on Balls in Play on flyballs in 2009 (the A.L. average thus far is .230). Last year, M’s hurlers posted a .213 BABIP on flyballs (.215 league average).

Short of finding a way to clone Willie Mays a couple of times, it would be hard to keep up that pace. But, Seattle’s outfield trio comes with glowing scouting reports and the numbers to back them up. Strikeout-challenged starters such as Jarrod Washburn and Carlos Silva might not look quite as bad, with so many balls put in play being converted into outs, and the resurgent Erik Bedard is slanted toward the flyball end of the pitching spectrum.

Outfield defense might not seem like a big deal from a fantasy perspective, but having quality defenders behind a pitcher can be the difference between a guy being roster-worthy or simply waiver fodder. With Chavez, Gutierrez and now Ichiro manning the outfield, whomever takes the mound for the M’s does so with a leg up on the competition.

As we get ready for Week 3, most teams will have reached a point where they are using fifth starters. The schedule still has a few extra off days, so clubs may or may not be on a strict every-fifth-day rotation. Assuming they are, here are five interesting pitchers slated for two starts in leagues whose week starts on Monday.

Justin Masterson – With Daisuke Matsuzaka on the disabled list, Masterson makes his first start of the season on Monday. He is at home versus the Orioles on Monday and if he stays in the rotation will be at home to face the Yankees at the end of the week.

Jordan Zimmermann – The Nationals are slated to promote top prospect Zimmermann from the minors to make his first start of the season at home versus the Braves. His second start will be at New York versus the Mets.

Andrew Miller – The sixth pick of the 2006 draft gets a start Monday at Pittsburgh and later in the week the lefty Miller has a home start versus the lefty-heavy Phillies.

Scott Richmond – After a strong outing (6.1 IP, 1 ER) in his last start versus the Twins, Richmond has a home start versus the Rangers on Tuesday and at Chicago on Sunday.

Armando Galarraga – Last year’s surprise pitcher sees if he can keep his hot 2009 start going with games Tuesday at the Angels and Sunday at Kansas City.

Other potential two-start pitchers in Week 3 are:

Simon, Eveland, Pettitte, Lowe, Correia, Moyer, Hampton, Marquis, Garland, Contreras, Hendrickson, Baker, Wakefield, Ramirez, Laffey, Anderson, Sabathia, Kawakami, Martis, Parra, Blanton, Sanchez, Karstens, McCarthy, Owings, Harden, Kershaw, Ortiz, Perez, Pineiro, Morales, Petit, Weaver, Sonnanstine, Washburn, Peavy and Cain.

Earlier this month, we discussed Athletics southpaw Brett Anderson and his surprising polish for such a youthful starter. It’s only fitting that we now turn our attention to right-hander Trevor Cahill, as Oakland’s lefty-righty prospect duo has been inextricably linked since Anderson’s arrival in the system last year. Cahill is peanut butter to Anderson’s jelly; they just go together.

While Anderson was brought in as part of the freighter of talent acquired from Arizona in the Dan Haren deal, Cahill was a second-round draft pick out of Vista, California in the 2006 amateur draft. The A’s paid Cahill $560K to eschew a scholarship to Dartmouth, valuing an emerging arm that Baseball America claimed had “surprising feel and command for such an inexperienced pitcher.”

You would have thought that Cahill polished his game and got that Ivy League diploma, judging from the way he pummeled opposing batters in his full-season debut in 2007. In 105.1 innings with Kane County, Cahill struck out exactly 10 batters per nine innings, while inducing a boatload of grounders (56.4 GB%) with an arsenal including a low-90’s sinker, a knuckle-curve, a slider and a changeup. His control was just moderate (3.42 BB/9), but the combination of whiffs and worm-burners was exciting, to say the least.

The 6-3, 195 pounder began the 2008 season in what can often be pitching purgatory: the High-A California League. Undeterred, Cahill bested his ’07 FIP (2.74) by posing a 2.63 mark with Stockton in 87.1 IP. You name it, and Cahill improved upon it: his K rate climbed to 10.61, he slightly shaved down the walks (3.19 BB/9), and he was downright Webb-esque in keeping the ball in the dirt (61.4 GB%).

Passing that test with flying colors, Cahill was bumped up to AA Midland, where he tossed 37 frames. He hit the first rocky path of his career with the RockHounds, though you wouldn’t know it from a cursory look at his ERA (2.19). Not that he was bad by any stretch, but Cahill walked 4.62 batters per nine, with 8 K/9 and a 3.90 FIP. The grounders kept coming, however, at a 61.8% clip.

Cahill has always been considered an integral part of future A’s contenders, but his time in the big leagues came a year before most anticipated that he would grace the Coliseum. Cahill’s major league debut versus the Angels on April 7th was turbulent (5 IP, 5 walks, 1 K), but he turned in a quality outing on the 12th versus the Mariners (7 IP, 1 R, 2 hits).

Cahill might not be as major league-ready as his southpaw partner in crime (his control can desert him at times). But, the 21 year-old looks an awful lot like a Brandon Webb starter kit: a good number of swings and misses, coupled with a ground-based attack that makes it difficult for opponents to loft the ball out of the infield. That represents the best-case scenario, of course, but Cahill could entangle hitters for years to come as the A’s synthesize yet another formidable rotation.

If you mentioned the name “Erik Bedard” to a Mariners fan during the 2008 season, odds are you would have received a menacing glare, followed perhaps by a desultory comment or two about your lineage. Bedard was baseball’s version of Lord Voldemort, “He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named” for fear that doing so would force the cosmos to swoop in and pilfer another round of Mariners prospects.

Then under the command of unsteady hand Bill Bavasi, the M’s acquired Bedard prior to the ’08 season using fuzzy math: “88 wins plus studly southpaw equals playoffs.” Unfortunately, Seattle was not working with an 88-win talent base: going by the club’s runs scored (798) and allowed (825), the Mariners should have finished at a run-of-the-mill 79-83.

Seattle expended two immense young talents to acquire the powerful-but-fragile lefty, sending rangy center fielder Adam Jones and right-hander Christopher Tillman to the O’s, along with Anthony Butler, Kameron Mickolio and George Sherrill. While Jones was busy covering wide swaths of territory in the bigs and Tillman was beating up Double-A batters at age 20, Bedard tossed all of 81 frames for the M’s (only 28 more than Sherrill did out of the ‘pen for Baltimore).

Bedard was a force for the O’s in ’07, utilizing his low-90’s gas and power curve to post a 3.19 FIP and 5.4 Value Wins (that after compiling 5 wins in 2006). But in ’08, you name it, Bedard hurt it: hip, back and shoulder injuries caused the Canadian to turn in just 1.1 Value Wins. His whiff rate, which spiked to nearly 11 per nine innings in 2008, fell to 8 per nine, and he handed out 4.11 BB/9. The result was a 4.32 FIP- not exactly the desired return when you part with years of cost-controlled goodness from two top-notch farm products.

After a hectic offseason that included rumors of a serious shoulder injury and the possibility of the M’s washing their hands of Bedard by non-tendering him, the 30 year-old has rocketed out of the gate in 2009. In 13.1 innings, Bedard has flummoxed batters with a 15/1 K/BB ratio and just 9 hits allowed.

No grand conclusions should be drawn from two starts against the Twins and A’s, but Bedard has induced swinging strikes on 12.3% of his pitches (8.9% in 2008; the league average is 7.8%). His sweeping curve was superb against Oakland (check out the BrooksBaseball.net Pitch F/X tool-it’s a great resource), with over eight inches of dropping action as well as nearly 7 inches of horizontal break. His fastball also had plenty of tailing action, and he threw the pitch for a strike nearly 70% of the time. In Bedard’s stellar outing versus the Twinkies, he located his breaking ball for a strike almost 84% of the time.

Bedard will need to contribute far more than two great starts in April for the sting of the Jones/Tillman trade to even begin to fade (it likely never will), but a healthy Bedard (along with Felix Hernandez) would give the M’s one of the better one-two punches in the American League. His injury history is too lengthy to ignore, but Bedard could provide ace-level production at a discount for owners, given the sour taste he left in the mouths of many in 2008.

You’ll have to forgive Cardinals fans who became nostalgic yesterday afternoon, watching former pitching messiah Chris Carpenter twirl a seven-inning masterpiece versus the hapless Pirates. For one game anyway, it was 2006 all over again.

The fact that Carpenter is even able to take the mound at this point in his career is a testament to modern medicine. Carp suffered a torn labrum as a Toronto Blue Jay back in 2002, which Baseball Prospectus med-head Will Carroll called “a professional death sentence for pitchers.”

Of course, the big right-hander did not go silently into the night, eventually establishing new heights with the Cardinals. Carpenter showed promise with the Jays, generally posting Fielding Independent ERA’s in the low-to-mid fours, but he morphed into a bona-fide ace with the Red Birds. Carp was once supposed to team up with Toronto stud Roy Halladay to form a dynamic one-two punch north of the border. While that didn’t occur, Carpenter essentially became a Doc Halladay doppelganger from 2004 to 2006:

2004: 182 IP, 7.52 K/9, 1.88 BB/9, 52.2 GB%, 3.85 FIP
2005: 241.2 IP, 7.93 K/9, 1.90 BB/9, 54.5 GB%, 2.90 FIP
2006: 221.2 IP, 7.47 K/9, 1.75 BB/9, 53.3 GB%, 3.44 FIP

Carpenter’s pro career reached its apex in ’06: not only did he celebrate a World Series title, but he also inked a lucrative contract extension that winter. The Cards locked up their mended ace for five years and $63 million, plus a 2012 club option.

Unfortunately, his stardom was once again put on hold. The immense workload shouldered during Carpenter’s Cy Young 2005 season and championship-winning 2006 campaign had taxed his body. He went under the knife for Tommy John surgery, but as Carroll explains, his path back to the majors has been rife with sharp left turns:

“During his rehab, though, things have gone anything but predictably. He had a shoulder strain as well as nerve issues in his elbow (a common TJ complication) and in his shoulder, a combination which doctors have called “unprecedented.” The nerve transposition in his elbow is perhaps the most controversial element of what was done in Carpenter’s surgery; most surgeons currently move the ulnar nerve as a part of the Tommy John procedure to avoid this kind of setback, but it was not done in Carpenter’s case.” (Will Carroll’s Under The Knife: Chris Carpenter, March 11, 2009).

While it’s anyone’s guess as to how well the 34 year-old will hold up in the long run, Carpenter was stellar in his season-opening start against the Bucs. He did not allow a hit through 6.2 frames, whiffing seven and walking none. Here’s a quick look at Carp’s Pitch F/X data for the game:

Carpenter broke out all of his pitches versus the Pirates, mixing in fastballs, sinkers, cutters, curves, sliders and a couple changeups:

(X is horizontal movement, Z is vertical movement. FB= fastball, SI= sinker, FC= cutter, SL= slider, CB= curveball, CH= changeup).

FB: 93.1 MPH, -10.5 X, 5.39 Z, 27 thrown
SI: 92.6 MPH, -11.55 X, 4.97 Z, 15 thrown
FC: 89.1 MPH, -1.05 X, 6.13 Z, 13 thrown
SL: 88.5 MPH, -0.66 X, 4.4 Z, 16 thrown
CB: 75.5 MPH, 6.6 X, -9.9 Z, 19 thrown
CH: 85.9 MPH, -10 X, 7.3 Z, 2 thrown

Carpenter’s fastball had an absurd amount of tailing action in on the hands of right-handed hitters, with good velocity to boot. He also used the cutter/slider to keep lefties honest, while buckling knees with his dastardly curveball. Look at the movement on that Uncle Charlie: nearly 10 inches of drop, with over six and a half inches of side-to-side movement as well. Think about the plight of the righty hitter for a moment: Carpenter could toss you a fastball that runs right into the nub of your bat, or he could flip a curve way in the opposite direction that just falls off the table. How do you hit that (I suppose you don’t, eh Pirates)?

Keep in mind that this was just one outing, but Chris Carpenter seemingly picked up exactly where he left off in October of 2006. He threw a cornucopia of quality offerings, befuddling batters with a bowling-ball heater and a curve worthy of Vin Scully’s “Public Enemy No. 1” designation. Don’t get too worked up, but Carpenter sure did look like his old self on Thursday afternoon. The Cardinals (on the hook for $43.5 million over the next three years) can only hope it continues.