Red Sox southpaw Jon Lester entered the 2009 season with enormous expectations. Fresh off a strong 2008 campaign in which he compiled a 3.64 FIP and progressively gained velocity as the season went on, the 25 year-old had plenty of hype surrounding him this offseason.

At first glance, Lester sure seems like a massive disappointment to this point. One might initially feel as though Lester has been shelled in 2009, given his losing record and 6.31 ERA. However, there are a number of reasons to expect a strong rebound from Boston’s co-ace.

Lester might have a grisly ERA, but his 4.35 Fielding Independent ERA is considerably sunnier. His strikeout rate has swelled to 10.67 per nine innings: that’s the sixth-highest rate among all starters. Also, his walk rate has remained stable (2.83 BB/9, compared to last year’s 2.82 mark, and his BB/PA is 7.1% in ’09 compared to 7.6% in ’08).

If anything, that FIP actually understates how good Lester has been: he has surrendered a whopping 1.74 home runs per nine innings, with an inflated HR/FB mark of 17.4%. HR/FB rates tend to hover around 10-11%, and Lester’s career rate sits at 9%. When that rate regresses, Lester’s ERA should drop like a lead balloon. Using Expected Fielding Independent ERA (to root out his poor luck of flyballs), Lester checks in at 3.79. That’s four-tenths of a run lower than last season, and ranks 6th among American League starters.

Lester has also has endured a spate of bad luck on balls put in play: his BABIP sits at .394, tied with fellow Red Sock and rebound candidate Josh Beckett for the highest mark in the big leagues. Boston isn’t performing especially well with the leather as a team (ranking 25th in UZR/150), but that figure will surely drop as time goes on.

This would be the perfect time to pilfer Lester from a frustrated owner. His numbers are superficially gruesome, but the underlying performance is actually very encouraging. If you own Lester, sit tight and wait for better days ahead. If not, then do all you can to acquire him on the cheap.

The San Francisco Giants organization recently promoted its two top pitching prospects from high-A ball to double-A. Left-hander Madison Bumgarner and right-hander Tim Alderson – 2007 first-round picks out of high schools – have both taken slightly different paths through the minors but they should spend the bulk of the 2009 season together in double-A.

Bumgarner was the Giants’ first pick (10th overall) in 2007 out of a North Carolina high school. He signed late that year and did not make his debut until 2008. He skipped over both short-season and rookie ball by going straight to low-A ball. The league was not a problem for the lanky lefty, who went 15-3 and lead the league with a 1.46 ERA (1.71 FIP). Bumgarner dominated by allowing just 111 hits and posting rates of 1.33 BB/9 and 10.42 K/9.

In order to avoid the cold weather of the double-A Eastern League, the Giants assigned the now 19-year-old pitcher to high-A San Jose. He posted a 1.48 ERA (2.05 FIP) with 20 hits and just four walks allowed in five starts. With the weather warming in Connecticut, Bumgarner was promoted to double-A last week. In his first start for the Defenders on May 11, Bumgarner faced the last-place New Britain Rock Cats (Minnesota’s affiliate) and allowed just one run in six innings of work. He allowed seven hits and no walks, while striking out two batters.

Alderson, 20, was the club’s second pick (20th overall) of the six selections it had before the second round in 2007 (The club lost a lot of players to free agency the previous winter). He showed excellent stuff and above-average control, but teams were scared away by his mechanics and delivery. Obviously, though, with Tim Lincecum in the big league rotation, the Giants organization is not scared off by unique pitchers.

Alderson, now 20, also took his sweet time signing his first pro contract, although he did make three appearances late in 2007. He did not allow a run or a walk in five rookie-ball innings. Alderson allowed just four hits and struck out 12 batters. The right-hander was so impressive that the Giants challenged him with a 2008 assignment to high-A ball, a move almost unheard of amongst prep draftees in their first full season. He rose to the challenge and went 13-4 with a 2.79 ERA (2.64 FIP) with 125 hits allowed in 145.1 innings of work. Alderson posted a walk rate of 2.11 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.68 K/9 during the course of the season.

Again, because of the weather in Connecticut, Alderson began 2009 by repeating high-A ball for five starts. Perhaps cruising a bit, the Arizona native allowed 31 hits and three walks in 26 innings. He also struck out 20. Along with Bumgarner, Alderson was promoted to double-A and he made his first start against the first-place New Hampshire Fisher Cats (Toronto’s affiliate) on May 10. He did not allow a hit over 6.2 innings of work and was removed due to his pitch count. Alderson walked one and struck out 10 batters.

Bumgarner, 6’4” and 215 lbs, has the makings of a No. 1 or 2 starter. His repertoire includes a moving fastball that can touch the upper 90s. He has above-average command of the pitch. Because his fastball has been so dominating, his secondary pitches, a curveball and change-up, have suffered. He’ll definitely need to work on them to succeed in Double-A – and eventually the Majors.

Alderson, 6’7” and 220 lbs, has an average fastball at 88-92 mph but his command of the pitch makes it play up. His curveball is amongst the best in the minors and his change-up is improving. Alderson is also working to induce more ground balls, which he did effectively in his double-A debut. He could see the Majors by the end of the season – likely from the bullpen. He has the ceiling, though, of a No. 2 or 3 starter.

Both pitchers have bright futures in the Majors and should be extremely valuable to not only the San Francisco Giants organization, but also fantasy baseball owners in keeper leagues.

Here is the latest update to Week 6 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update
ANA – Weaver
DET – Galarraga
KCY – Hochevar
HOU – Paulino
SEA – Vargas
FLA – Koronka

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts
PHI – Moyer
HOU – Hampton
FLA – Sanchez
DET – Miner
SEA – Silva
KCY – Ponson
ANA – Ortega

Weaver is having a fine season and is coming off a complete-game victory with eight strikeouts. He should be active in all formats but is facing a tough road with a matchup against the Red Sox and a road start in Texas.

In his last two starts Galarraga has given up 11 ER in 11 IP with five strikeouts and three home runs allowed. His 4.09 BB/9 is nothing to write home about, either.

Hochevar takes Soria’s spot on the roster and Ponson’s spot in the rotation. He was 5-0 with a 0.90 ERA at Triple-A. Hochevar had 30 strikeouts and 10 walks in 40 innings at Omaha.

After getting bumped to the bullpen when Moehler came off the disabled list, Paulino returns to the rotation taking Ortiz’ spot. In three games as a starter, Paulino has a 2.55 ERA. In three games as a reliever his ERA is 21.00.

Vargas gets a spot in the rotation after picking up a win in two appearances as a reliever. He averaged 9.14 K/9 in 21.2 IP at Triple-A and has four strikeouts in 3.2 IP with Seattle.

Never a big strikeout pitcher, Koronka punched out 24 batters in 27 innings at Triple-A. However, he gave up four home runs in that time span.

After last week’s bonanza of two-start pitchers, there are considerably fewer to choose from this week. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup for Week 6.

Kevin Slowey – Is off to a poor start this year and things do not look to get any easier this week. His first start is against the Tigers, against whom he has a 5.74 lifetime ERA. His second start is in New York, where the Yankees have hit 23 HR in 13 games. Slowey has a 1.57 HR/9 so far this year.

Justin Masterson – He has had two rough starts in a row and has to go on the road in both starts this week. But both starts he got beat up in his last inning and I like him this week in his matchups against Anthony Ortega and Carlos Silva.

Mike Pelfrey – He does not strike anyone out and the ERA is terrible. But after taking time off for a strained forearm, Pelfrey is 3-0 with 4.00 ERA. With starts at Citi Field and AT&T Park, Pelfrey should be able to keep the ball in the park and continue to lower his ERA.

Jordan Zimmermann – After allowing six runs in the first inning of his last start, Zimmermann pitched five scoreless frames and limited further damage, a nice thing to see from a young pitcher. Like Pelfrey he’s had trouble with the HR ball, but hopefully a road start in San Francisco followed by a home start will limit that damage.

Mike Hampton – After three solid starts to begin the year, Hampton has been knocked around in his last three outings. Expect that trend to continue with road starts at Colorado and at Chicago.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 6 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Santana, Halladay, Peavy, Lowe, Burnett, Harden, Cain, Kershaw, Floyd, Johnson, Duke, Jimenez, Arroyo, Garland, Parra, Sonnanstine, Wellemeyer, Moyer, Sanchez, Pavano, Feldman, Cabrera, Miner, Park, Silva, Sowers, Ponson, Hendrickson, Ortega.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 4 and how they did.

Blanton – Advised to start. Only made one start during the week and it was a bad one, as he allowed 6 ER in 4.1 IP. In his next start, which was pushed back to Week #5, Blanton picked up win while allowing just 1 ER in 6 IP.

Jackson – Advised to start. Only made one start during the week and it was a good one, with 6 IP, 0 ER but a no-decision. His next start was also pushed back to Monday. He pitched six scoreless innings and then gave up five runs in the seventh.

Lohse – Advised to sit. Only made one start during the week and it was a good one. 6 IP, 0 ER but a no-decision. His next start was also pushed back to Monday and he gave up 6 ER in 4.1 IP.

Young – Advised to sit. Finally one who pitched two starts. He allowed 9 ER in 10 IP.

Zito – Advised to start. He made two starts, pitched 13.1 innings and allowed 3 ER.

As Eric Seidman astutely pointed out, baseball fans can become spoiled. Excellence, in some cases, is eventually taken for granted. Call it the Albert Pujols Effect: a guy laps the competition for so long, that we gradually come to view that brilliant player as mundane, boring; been there, done that.

Johan Santana certainly falls into this category. As a Minnesota Twin, the lefty changeup artist was a pitching cyborg. He posted Wins Above Replacement (WAR) totals of 7.7, 7.6, and 7.3 between 2004 and 2006. Santana “declined” to a mere 4.6 and 4.8 over the 2007 and 2008 seasons, which still put him among the best hurlers in the game. However, spoiled by his Bob Gibson-like reign of terror, some fans claimed that Santana was no longer special.

Oops. As it turns out, the 30 year-old is just fine, thanks. In 39.2 innings this season, Santana has punched out a jaw-dropping 54 batters (12.25 K/9), which is the highest rate of his career. His FIP sits at a microscopic 2.03, and he has compiled 1.7 WAR already. That’s tied with Tim Lincecum for the third-highest mark in the majors: only Dan Haren and Zack Greinke have provided more value to this point. How good has Santana been? Consider the following..

– Santana is generating swings on pitches thrown outside the strike zone 31.6% of the time. That’s the highest mark that we have for him dating back to 2002, and is nearly 5 percent higher than his 2008 figure.

– When they aren’t fishing for one off the plate, opposing batters are having plenty of difficulty making contact with pitches over the plate. Santana’s Z-Contact% (the percentage of contact made on pitches in the strike zone) is just 73.8%, compared to the 87.7% MLB average. Again, that’s the lowest mark for Santana dating back to 2002, and it’s the lowest rate among all starting pitchers.

– Santana’s overall Contact% of 68.3 is bested only by Rich Harden’s 66.1.

– With a 67.1 First-Pitch Strike%, Santana ranks sixth in the majors. He’s getting ahead 0-1 or ending the at-bat after the first pitch at his highest rate since 2005.

It may be fun and refreshing to try and identify the next batch of premium pitching talent, but let’s not forget about the current crop, either. Santana is primed for a huge season, not that his work over the last few years was anything short of superb.

Well, we’ve already taken a look at the top rookie pitchers in the American League, so let’s have a gander at the Senior Circuit’s best young hurlers. Warning: The depth amongst the starters is not as good as it is in the American League.

St. Louis’ Jason Motte was absolutely lights-out in spring training and won the closer’s role… as much as any rookie pitcher can win a role for manager Tony LaRussa. A couple shaky games later, though, he was on the outside looking in. Motte hasn’t allowed an earned run in his last nine appearances but veteran Ryan Franklin has established himself as the club’s closer. Middle relievers rarely receive consideration for the Rookie of the Year award, but you never know.

One of my pre-season favorites for the NL rookie pitcher of the year, James McDonald has struggled to say the least. He currently has an 8.16 ERA (6.17 FIP) and has pitched himself out of the starting rotation for the first-place Dodgers. McDonald’s lack of control has been his downfall as he’s walked 14 batters in 14.1 innings of work.

Jordan Zimmermann won the No. 5 spot in the Washington Nationals’ starting rotation in spring training, but the club did not need five starters until the middle of the first month so he began the year in Triple-A. Since being recalled, Zimmermann has pitched well in two of his three starts (The stinker came against St. Louis). The 2007 second round draft pick is still getting comfortable in the Majors and he’s allowed 20 hits and three walks in 17 innings of work. He’s also struck out 14 batters. Zimmermann needs to try and avoid the long ball (2.12 HR/9). When all is said and done, the right-hander could have the best numbers of any of the rookie pitchers in 2009 but it remains to be seen if the Rookie of the Year voters will lose him in the mess that is Washington. His teammate Shairon Martis is also having a nice season so far in the Nats rotation.

Like Scott Richmond of the Jays, Bobby Parnell is another talented rookie hurler that gets overlooked despite playing in a large market like New York, likely because he is a middle reliever who gets a ton of outs by putting the ball in play. The right-hander has a 1.38 ERA (3.10 FIP) in 13 innings so far this season. He has walked just four batters with eight strikeouts and he hasn’t allowed a home run. Parnell still has room to get better as he has not been inducing quite as many groundballs as he traditionally does.

It’s no secret that I hate the fact Japanese players are eligible for the Rookie if the Year awards. Baltimore’s Koji Uehara, 34, and Atlanta’s Kenshin Kawakami, 33, have years of experience while playing in Japan. Uehara spent nine years in the Japanese Central League and is currently leading all MLB ‘rookies’ in innings pitched and strikeouts (by one over Richmond). Kawakami, 33, spent 10 years in the Japanese Central League. Despite the added experience, though, the right-hander has struggled with his control and currently has a 6.41 ERA (5.54 FIP) in 26.2 innings of work.

For the last few weeks, I have been focusing on the hitting side of things when it comes to the Rookie of the Year race in both the American and National Leagues. In this post, we are going to take a look at the pitchers currently in the running for the year-end award in the AL. It seems to be a down year for rookie pitchers, though, with the likes of Tampa Bay’s David Price still in the minors.

If you’re an ERA fan, then Trevor Cahill’s 4.50 would probably lead you think, “OK, not great but it could be worse.” Well it is. The Oakland right-hander has allowed 27 hits and 18 walks in just 26 innings of work. He’s also added just eight strikeouts. With a line-drive rate of 24 percent, BABIP of .269, and a FIP of 6.37, he’s been lucky (while playing in a big home park) and he’s been bailed out by the defenders behind him. The 21-year-old could probably use a little more polish in the minors.

Cahill’s teammate Brett Anderson has also had a rough go of things so far this year. Coming into the season, the 21-year-old lefty was considered a more advanced pitcher than most players his age but he’s still learning. Anderson has a 5.79 ERA (5.00 FIP) and has allowed 33 hits and nine walks in 28 innings of work. He’s also struck out an uncharacteristically low 4.5 batters per nine innings. In fairness, he’s faced three very tough lineups in Texas, Boston and New York (AL). Anderson is getting opponents to pound the ball into the ground (55.7 GB%) and they also are not hitting the ball with consistent authority against him (10.3 LD%). He’s going to see some good results soon.

Detroit’s Rick Porcello is another player who has been rushed to the Majors, after spending all of last season in high A-ball. The right-hander currently has allowed 28 hits and nine walks in 28.2 innings of work. Porcello has a 4.71 ERA (5.80 FIP) in his five starts. The six home runs allowed are worrisome (1.88 HR/9) but his groundball rate is good (52.1 GB%).

The sixth overall pick from the 2005 draft, Ricky Romero is still trying to live up to that lofty standard. In his first three starts of the season – after surprising everyone by nailing down a rotation spot in spring training – Romero was outstanding. He posted a 1.71 ERA (3.28 FIP) with 19 hits and just four walks in 21 innings of work. Unfortunately, he injured his oblique and hasn’t pitched since April 19. Fortunately for Toronto, he should be back within two weeks. The talent is there, he just needs to trust his stuff and hope he’s finally turned the corner with his command and control.

There may not be a rookie in the Majors who is flying more under the radar than Romero’s teammate Scott Richmond. The Canadian is a great story as a 29-year-old rookie. He took three years off school after high school and did not graduate from Oklahoma State University until he was 25, so he went undrafted. The Jays noticed him while he was pitching in independent baseball in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. Within one year of signing, he pitched 27 innings for the Jays in 2008. So far this year, he has allowed 25 hits and 12 walks in 30.1 innings. He also has 26 strikeouts. Among MLB rookies, Richmond is second in strikeouts and innings pitched, as well as first in ERA and wins. He’s 12th in all of baseball in ERA amongst starters with at least 30 innings pitched.

Here is the latest update to Week 5 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update
HOU – Oswalt
ANA – Saunders
STL – Lohse
NYY – Hughes
NYM – Maine
PHI – Blanton
WAS – Lannan
WSX – Colon
MIL – Suppan
TOR – Cecil
LAD – Weaver
HOU – Moehler

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts
NYM – Santana
NYY – Burnett
PHI – Hamels
WSX – Buehrle
STL – Boggs
LAD – McDonald
HOU – Paulino
WAS – Cabrera
HOU – Ortiz
ANA – Ortega
TOR – Burres

A fair number of stars, like Tim Lincecum and Johan Santana, are slated for two starts in Week 5. But since you are going to start those guys anyway, let’s take a look at some other pitchers you may be on the fence about who are projected for two starts in those leagues with weeks starting on Monday.

Josh Beckett – Ordinarily he would be a no-brainer pick for your lineup, even if he had just one start in a week. But Beckett’s been unimpressive since his Opening Day outing. Since then he’s pitched 17.2 innings and allowed 22 earned runs. It is always a risk to take a horse like Beckett out of the lineup, but two starts of lousy pitching this week is something of which to be wary. His two games are at New York and versus Tampa Bay.

Chris Volstad – He has a 2.67 ERA overall and in his last start allowed just two runs in seven innings while he struck out five batters. Bench him anyway. Volstad has a tough matchup with Edinson Volquez in his first start and then he has to go to Colorado for his second outing, always a tricky place for pitchers and not one that a hurler who has allowed five home runs in 30.1 innings should particularly relish.

Mark Buehrle – The veteran has been extremely effective so far this season, as he has allowed two, one, three and two earned runs in his four outings. Buehrle also is doing a better than usual job of striking out batters, as he has notched 17 Ks in 24 IP. His first start is at Kansas City and then he returns to Chicago for a matchup with Texas.

Paul Maholm – I am going with my gut on this one. His first start is against the Brewers, who roughed up Maholm in his last outing. I like pitchers who get a quick shot at revenge against a team that just beat them. Plus, Pittsburgh has to beat Milwaukee one of these days, right? The losing streak is up to 15 games now. In his second start, Maholm goes up against Livan Hernandez and the Mets at Citi Field.

Felipe Paulino – A pinched nerve in his shoulder kept Paulino out for virtually the entire 2008 season. He opened this year in the minors but was promoted when Brian Moehler hit the DL in mid-April. Since then the 25-year old with the 95 mph fastball has been solid, despite his 0-2 record. He has a 3.25 K/BB ratio and has yet to allow a HR. Unfortunately, his teammates have provided him with only four runs in three games. His first start is at Washington and then he returns home to face off against San Diego.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 5 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lincecum, Santana, Greinke, Gallardo, Hernandez, Kazmir Burnett, Johnson, Lester, Wainwright, Vazquez, Bedard, Harang, Dempster, Volquez, Hamels, Chamberlain, Myers, Garza, Millwood, Floyd, Liriano, Jackson, Scherzer, Carmona, Sanchez, Davies, Uehara, Marshall, Davis, Snell, Cook, Reyes, Blackburn, Porcello, Braden, Kawakami, Stults, Tallet, Anderson, Padilla, Boggs, Olsen, McDonald, Hernandez, De la Rosa, Cabrera, Correia, Ortiz, Geer, Loux, Eaton, Ortega and Burress.

With a month’s worth of games in the books, let’s take a quick look at the starting pitchers who have significantly over performed or underperformed, based on their Fielding Independent ERA (FIP). By taking a gander at those core numbers (strikeouts, walks, homers), we can get a better idea of which hot starts are unlikely to last or which “struggling” starters might be in for a rebound. Here’s a recap of those who have posted an ERA significantly higher than their FIP would indicate. These are the guys who will very likely post better numbers in the coming months, should their peripherals hold up.

Justin Verlander, Tigers

6.75 ERA, 3.22 FIP

Verlander’s ERA looks like something out of an Alfred Hitchcock horror film (how appropriate, given Comerica’s tendency to go to the birds). However, the Old Dominion product actually pitched very well in April: again flashing mid-90’s gas (his fastball is up to 95.3 MPH in ’09, after coming in at 93.6 MPH in ’08), Verlander has fooled 34 batters in 28 innings (10.93 K/9) while shaving slightly over 1 walk per nine innings off his ledger (2.89 BB/9, down from 3.90 last season). Only a mind-bending .408 BABIP and 50.3% strand rate have kept Verlander from being recognized as improved. Don’t let the Maroth-like ERA fool you: Verlander is dealing, and he’s a great buy-low candidate.

Ricky Nolasco, Marlins

6.92 ERA, 3.64 FIP

After a ridiculously productive second half in 2008, Nolasco has spurred a lot of “what’s wrong with him?” talk in the first month of the season. While his control hasn’t been especially sharp (3.12 BB/9, after a pinpoint 1.78 BB/9 in 2008), it’s not as though Nolasco is getting shelled and struggling horrendously. His K rate has remained stable (7.62 per nine): it’s the .391 BABIP that’s killing him (you’ll note a trend on this list: strong peripherals sabotaged by very poor showings on balls put in play) as well as a 56.9% strand rate. Don’t discard Nolasco at a bargain-basement price: he’ll likely reward you in the coming months.

Josh Beckett, Red Sox

7.22 ERA, 4.05 FIP

Beckett has gotten shelled his last two trips to the mound against New York and Tampa Bay, and to be sure, he hasn’t been ace-quality so far. He’s struggling to locate (5.02 BB/9, after walking less than 1.8 per nine in 2007 and 2008), and has placed just 42.3% of his pitches in the strike zone (48.9% MLB average, 53.5% career average). So, to say there are no problems would be incorrect. But still, a .398 BABIP and a 58.6% strand rate have made Beckett look like a batting practice dummy as opposed to a very good hurler who’s experiencing some control issues. Don’t hit the panic button just yet.

Joe Blanton, Phillies

8.41 ERA, 6.08 FIP

This falls into the “damning with faint praise” category, no? Unlike the first three guys on this list, Blanton has been legitimately bad. Or has he? FIP is a great stat, but it falls victim to wacky HR performances. Blanton has posted decent strikeout and walk ratios (an uncharacteristic 8.85 K/9 and 3.10 BB/9), but he’s giving up taters at a pace that would make Brett Myers laugh: 2.66 HR/9, on the back of a 22.2 HR/FB%. For comparison, Blanton’s career HR/FB% is 8.5.

If we used Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP) instead, Blanton comes in at 4.41. That’s actually better than his 2008 mark, and is the third-best figure of his career. Blanton has basically been the same mid-rotation Average Joe in 2009, but has given up homers like he’s throwing under-handed with a beach ball.

Dana Eveland, Athletics

5.95 ERA, 3.79 FIP

Eveland might actually be the reverse of Blanton: his FIP says he’s been better, but I’m not so sure. He’s both struck out and walked 5.49 batters per nine innings, and has yet to allow a homer in 19.2 innings. His BABIP is a loopy .400, but it’s hard to recommend a guy who lacks both the fine touch to paint the corners (career 4.57 BB/9) and ability to punch out hitters with great frequency (6.71 K/9). At least he’s kept the ball on the ground (59.7 GB%).