Here is the latest update to Week 8 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

KC – Greinke
ARI – Scherzer
TB – Price
SEA – Washburn
TOR – Tallet
CIN – Owings

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

TB – Kazmir
NYY – Hughes
TOR – Cecil
ARI – Augenstein
SEA – Jakubauskas
BAL – Eaton

Greinke gave up a season-high eight hits in his last outing but also notched his ninth Quality Start in nine games.

Scherzer has been pitching well with four Quality Starts in his last five games. The one poor outing came at Chase Field when he gave up three home runs to the Nationals. Scherzer has a 6.75 ERA at home this year compared to a 1.86 ERA in neutral road parks. Scherzer has two home games this week.

Price was hardly overwhelming in eight games in Triple-A but gets the call with Kazmir going on the DL. He was 1-4 with a 3.93 ERA at Durham. Price had an impressive 9.17 K/9 but a poor 4.72 BB/9.

Washburn started the year with three Quality Starts but since then he is 0-3 with a 5.34 ERA. Washburn had his last start pushed back due to tightness in his left knee, although the Mariners do not consider the injury a serious one.

Tallet has a 4.17 ERA in seven games as a starter, compared to a 6.14 ERA in four games as a reliever. After a 10-run outing in his final start in April, Tallet has reeled off four straight Quality Starts and has a 1.000 WHIP in that time frame.

Owings’ strikeouts are down nearly two per game from a year ago. He is also getting fewer swings out of the strike zone and batters are making better contact than they were last season. Owings has failed to complete six innings in five of his eight starts this year.

San Francisco Giants righty Matt Cain is a hurler who many considered to be on the cusp of a major breakout. His performances during his first three years in the rotation were very good, to be sure, with Fielding Independent ERA’s ranging from 3.78 to 3.96 and strikeout-to-walk ratios hovering slightly over 2/1. Still, the sturdy 6-3 frame, low-90’s gas, hard slider, slow curve and changeup hinted that Cain could possibly reach another level.

If one were to take just a quick glance at Cain’s 2009 season, that breakout would appear to be in progress. After all, the 24 year-old’s notoriously poor run support that produced Maroth-like Win-Loss records hasn’t doomed him, as he sits at 4-1. His ERA checks in at a tidy 2.65 to boot. He’s an ace now, right?

Not so fast. Cain might possess the shiny W-L tally and a lower ERA than Lincecum, but in most respects, he has actually taken a step backward this season. Cain’s FIP is 4.85 in 51 frames, by far the highest mark of his career. His strikeout rate, which peaked at 8.45 batters per nine innings in 2006 and sat around the mid-sevens in ’07 and ’08, is just 6.00 in 2009.

The K rate wouldn’t be the end of the world if Cain had made commensurate improvement in terms of limiting the free passes. Unfortunately, he’s as wild as ever: 4.41 walks per nine innings. Batters seem to have taken note of Cain’s inability to locate, as opponents have offered at just 18.9% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (22.7% career average, 24.3% MLB average).

A true power pitcher when he broke into the big leagues (sitting between 93.2-93.4 MPH from 2005 to 2007), Cain now has a lower-octane fastball (91.6 MPH). In addition, his slider doesn’t appear to be the same knock-out pitch these days.

While it hasn’t surrendered any velocity, Cain’s slider isn’t moving away from righty batters like it used to. In 2007, the breaker tailed away from righties 3.8 inches more than a pitch thrown without spin. In 2008, that figure dipped to 3.4 (the league average for a righty pitcher) and comes in at just 2.6 inches this season.

The negative trend with Cain’s slider is also apparent through FanGraphs’ new pitch linear weights section (seriously, how cool is this stuff?): the slider was 1.37 runs above average per 100 pitches in ’07, 1.23 in ’08 and actually comes in at -2.33 runs per 100 pitches in 2009. Not coincidentally, Cain’s usage of the pitch has declined each year: 16.5% in 2007, 13.8% in 2008 and 10% this year. Those sliders have been replaced with more curveballs (from 8.6% in 2007 to 16.8% in 2009), which come in as below average (-0.76 runs per 100 pitches this season, -1.92 per 100 pitches in 2008).

Given these trends, it’s not especially surprising to see that Cain’s performance against same-side batters has trailed off (numbers courtesy of Baseball-Reference):

Cain vs. RHB:
2007: .224/.291/.370
2008: .235/.312/.378
2009: .293/.404/.500

None of this is to say that Cain is a bad pitcher, or that he won’t show improvement as the year goes on. However, his current levels aren’t anywhere near sustainable if he continues to post similar peripherals; he can’t continue to post a .257 BABIP or a near-90 percent strand rate. Cain is good, but he’s not the great pitcher that his surface stats would indicate. If you can cash in now by selling high, by all means do.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 8.

Fausto Carmona – In three of his four seasons in the majors, including this one, Carmona’s ERA has been above five. This year he has as many walks as strikeouts. And while his LD% (18.8) and FB% (24.4) look very good, they are the worst marks of his career. Instead of wondering if you should start him, perhaps you should be scanning the waiver wire looking for his replacement.

Scott Kazmir – He is owned in 95 percent of CBS Sports leagues and was a starter in 64 percent of them last week. And he’s been terrible in his last five starts. His velocity is down under 90 for the first time in his career, his command has gotten worse (5.72 BB/9) and his SwSTR% is nearly half of what it was a year ago, down to 6.4 percent. Move him to the bench so you don’t get stuck with two bad starts.

John Maine – While Johan Santana has been struggling for run support, the Mets’ bats come alive when Maine is on the mound. For the season, the Mets have scored 5.77 runs per game for Maine and in his last five games they’ve given him an average of 6.6 runs. Maine has pitched well in four of those last five games and has picked up three wins in that span. He gets two starts at home this week, facing the Nationals and the Marlins.

Sean Marshall – His FIP is a run higher than his actual ERA due in large part to his poor HR rate. But Marshall faces the Pirates and the Dodgers this week, two teams that are below-average in hitting homers. Despite giving up five HR in his last four starts, Marshall has pitched well enough to give the Cubs a chance to win each of them.

Brad Penny – With an ERA above six, Penny hits the road this week to face Toronto, which leads the league in runs scored, and Minnesota, which just put up 20 runs in one game. Penny’s velocity is fine but he’s not getting nearly as many swings on balls out of the strike zone. In 2007 he had a 29 percent O-Swing% and this year it’s down to 17.5 percent. And when they do swing, he’s not getting as many misses, either, as his 5.1 percent SwStr% is a career-low. Not surprisingly, Penny’s 4.60 K/9 is the worst mark of his career.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 8 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Verlander, Garza, Gallardo, Vazquez, Dempster, W. Rodriguez, Harang, Lester, E. Santana, Liriano, E. Jackson, Danks, Carpenter, Volstad, Millwood, Maholm, Meche, De la Rosa, D. Davis, Harrison, Sanchez, Hughes, Guthrie, Cecil, Lannan, Blackburn, Braden, Stults, Medlen, Moyer, Pavano, Anderson, Gaudin, Augenstein, Jakubauskas, Milton, Eaton.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 6 and how they did.

Slowey – Advised to sit. W, 10 K, 1.98 ERA, 1.24 WHIP (2 starts)
Masterson – Advised to start. 9 K, 2.92 ERA, 1.46 WHIP (2)
Pelfrey – Advised to start 5 K, 2.77 ERA, 1.15 WHIP (2)
Zimmerman – Advised to start. 14 K, 8.18 ERA, 1.73 WHIP (2)
Hampton – Advised to sit. W, 3 K, 7.50 ERA, 1.50 WHIP (1)

Prior to the start of the 2009 season, the thought of comparing Livan Hernandez and Randy Johnson was ludicrous. Mets fans rolled their eyes when the club signed Hernandez while Giants fans were quite pleased when the team added Johnson. To support this belief, Johnson had an ADP of 141 while Hernandez did not crack the top 348 players listed over at Mock Draft Central.

Here were the fantasy stats for both players in 2008:

RJ – 11 W, 3.91 ERA, 173 K, 1.24 WHIP
LH – 13 W, 6.05 ERA, 67 K, 1.53 WHIP

To further drive home how big the gulf between these two players was last year, RotoTimes had Johnson with a $7.19 final dollar value compared to a minus $14.92 for Hernandez.

Right now each pitcher has made eight starts and here are their fantasy stats:

RJ – 3 W, 6.86 ERA, 42 K, 1.55 WHIP
LH – 3 W, 4.93 ERA, 25 K, 1.47 WHIP

RotoTimes values

RJ – minus $16.59
LH – minus $11.66

Many people believe that Johnson will turn things around while next to no one believes in Hernandez. With Johnson, they’ll point to his BABIP or his HR/FB and talk about regression or they’ll talk about other metrics and see how similar they are to last year and conclude that a return to the Johnson of old is just around the corner.

One area where there is a big difference is in pitch selection. Overall, Johnson threw 51.4 percent fastballs last year, compared to 48.8 percent this season. With his slider it is 40.4 percent this year compared to 35.2 percent in 2008. But if we look at what Johnson was doing at the end of last season, we get an even bigger difference. These numbers come from Dan Brooks’ wonderful site.

	FB	CH	SL	CB	SP
9/1	66	12	3	 	
9/13	61	8	9		
9/18	60	15	3	2	
9/23	54	10	26		5
9/28	65	11	4	1	
Pct     75	14	11	<1	<1

He was throwing his fastball nearly seven times as often as his slider. The two outings where he threw more than a handful of sliders, his average vertical break was over three. It was 3.43 on 9/13 and 3.03 on 9/23.

(Another thing that may jump out at you is that FanGraphs does not show Johnson throwing a changeup last year. My best guess is that what Brooks labels as a changeup FanGraphs categorizes as a splitter. This does not affect the fastball-slider ratio.)

Flash forward to this year and Johnson has been all over the map with the vertical break on his slider. His first three starts it was 2.89 then 5.54 then 2.84. And since then it’s been even more erratic. Here are Johnson’s starts since April 25th:

	IP	ER	BB	V-Break
4/25	3.1	2	7	1.79
5/1	7	0	0	4.16
5/6	5.2	7	3	2.16
5/11	5	4	0	2.53
5/16	4	7	0	2.22

If we look at the Pitch Type Linear Weights, we can see the deterioration of Johnson’s slider. Since an injury-shortened season in 2003, here are his yearly wSL (which stands for runs above average with his slider):

2004 – 32.5
2005 – 24.1
2006 – 14.9
2007 – 10.1 (injury shortened)
2008 – 5.2
2009 – negative 1.0

Johnson’s command was poor in April (13 BB in 19 IP) but very good in May (3 BB in 21.2 IP). His BABIP was .268 in April and .394 so far this month. Perhaps Johnson’s command and BABIP having an inverse relationship is an insignificant small sample size fluke. Or perhaps his slider is no longer a reliable pitch and he has to go back to throwing more changeups/splitters. Or maybe at age 45 he is done as a worthwhile fantasy pitcher.

One can count on the fingers of two hands the number of pitchers who have thrown 100 innings at age 45 in MLB history. Most of them are like Jamie Moyer, crafty soft tossers. The best comparison to Johnson is Nolan Ryan. Here are the fantasy stats for Ryan at age 44 and 45, when he made 27 starts both seasons.

1991 – 12 W, 2.91 ERA, 203 K, 1.006 WHIP
1992 – 5 W, 3.72 ERA, 157 K, 1.316 WHIP

All great pitchers reach the end of the road. Ryan was done after 13 starts and a career-high 4.88 ERA in 1993. If a pitcher in his prime had Johnson’s 2009 numbers after eight starts, regression would be the most likely occurrence. But perhaps this is not bad luck but rather the new level of performance for the Big Unit. Time will tell.

Now let’s look at Hernandez.

He had another fine outing last night, going seven innings and allowing just one run. The offense took the night off for him and he wound up with a no-decision in a game the Mets went on to lose. That brings the team’s record in starts by Hernandez to 5-3. He certainly pitched well enough to win last night and in another team loss, the bullpen gave up four runs and allowed an inherited runner to score that went on Hernandez’ record.

The alleged 34-year-old Hernandez, the pitcher no one wanted, has given his team a chance to win in seven of his eight games and he has four Quality Starts this season (Johnson: 2).

Hernandez claimed in Spring Training that his knee was 100 percent. This year his average fastball is up nearly a mile per hour (83.7-84.6). Additionally, Hernandez has thrown his slider more often (16.6%-21.2%) and with better results, as his wSL this season is 2.2 after being a negative 10.2 last year. This has led to a SwStr% of 5.5 in 2009 for Hernandez after it was 3.8 last year with Minnesota and 3.0 in Colorado.

With a .316 BABIP (career rate .310), 71.7 percent strand rate (career: 72.4), HR/9 of 1.18 (career: 1.05) and 4.65 FIP (career: 4.45), Hernandez has not been the recipient of a huge amount of luck. The numbers stand out in stark contrast to what he accomplished last year but the knee injury could at least partially explain 2008’s awful numbers.

Right now, Hernandez and Johnson are only worthwhile in deep NL-only leagues. Hernandez is healthy and basically pitching to his career averages in the four metrics listed above. There have been no reports of an injury to Johnson, but he is pitching far worse than was expected coming into the season. Before you repeat the regression mantra, track what he does with both his command and his slider in his next few outings.

A question in the mailbag from L. S. this week ended simply: Is Jorge De La Rosa for real?

His 2.99 FIP seems to suggest that his good start is for real, but ZiPS has him putting up a 4.71 ERA for the rest of the season. Perhaps this is a nod to his 5.32 career ERA. Many projection systems have trouble with breakout seasons, however, and there’s ample evidence that we are actually witnessing just such a step forward from a talented pitcher that could be peaking in his 27th year on the planet.

For one, the ‘luck’ numbers do not point definitively towards an unsustainable start to the year. His 69.1% strand rate is close to the league average as well as his own average (67.7%). His BABIP is .298, and while that is lower than his career .325 number, it doesn’t scream luck, especially given the small sample size.

Sure, this sample size also could be skewing his strikeout and walk rates, but for now they are both (9.49 K/9; 3.38 BB/9) right near the rates he put up in 130 innings of 4.06 FIP baseball last year (8.86 K/9, 4.29 BB/9). If the trend holds steady, the rates also show a natural progression that is encouraging. His strikeout rate has improved for three straight years, and his walk rate is at its lowest in his career. That’s good work if it proves to be true.

The only ‘luck’ worries come from his fly ball numbers. He’s sporting a 26.8% infield fly rate, and as those balls turn into long fly balls, his 4.9% HR/FB number should rise up to his 10.3% rate. The surprising thing is that with such a great HR/9 number (0.42), De La Rosa can actually continue to be productive – even if he doubles his home runs per nine as his career number suggest he will.

Why all the optimism? What’s changed? In short, this young Rockies pitcher has changed his entire approach to pitching over the past years.

Take a look at his pitch selection, and the difference between now and his first extended burn in 2007 is stark. When he came into the league, De La Rosa was throwing his 92-93 MPH fastball 62.3% of the time, and his 83 MPH slider 1.7% of the time. This year, he’s throwing those two pitches 56.1% and 23.3% of the time, respectively. He’s also cut his use of his 75 MPH curveball in half, from 13.1% to 6.5% this year.

A peek at his most recent pitch F/X game graph gives us some insight into this changed usage pattern. Take a look at his release points.

Despite a consistent release point for most of his pitches, De La Rosa lets his curve ball go at a distinctly higher point than his other pitches. This could lead to batters identifying the pitch early and laying off.

Now take a look at the movement of his pitches.

Given that the curve ball has the most horizontal and vertical movement of any of his pitches, it also follows that the curve ends up being called a ball many times, especially if batters are noticing the different release point and watching it into the catcher’s glove. It also makes sense that his most effective three pitches might be the three that release at the same spot and break as differently as his fastball, changeup and slider do.

Could it be that his reduced walk rate can be attributed to his reduced use of the curveball? Correlation is of course not causation, so it’s hard to say without knowing the strike percentage of each of his pitches. But De La Rosa is a changed pitcher – that much seems clear. And that counts as a good thing.

Here is the latest update to Week 7 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update
ATL – Lowe
LAD – Billingsley
CIN – Cueto
ANA – Lackey
STL – Lohse
ARZ – Garland
MIL – Bush
WAS – Detwiler

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts
ANA – Santana
CIN – Owings
ARZ – Augenstein
ATL – Reyes

Lowe has won his last four decisions and has a Quality Start in four of his last five games. He is walking a few more batters than you would like, but is making up for it with a fantastic HR/FB rate of five percent and a strand rate of 72.4 percent, his highest since 2002.

Billingsley has a Quality Start in all eight outings and has actually given up fewer home runs than Lowe, allowing just one HR in 54.2 innings.

Cueto is off to a fantastic start but his FIP (3.69) is nearly two runs higher than his ERA (1.93). His 89.6 percent strand rate is second in the majors among starters, trailing only Greinke.

Lackey gets the two-start week after being ejected after just two pitches in his season debut on Saturday. He struck out eight batters in 9.2 innings during two minor league rehab games at Triple-A. Lackey opened the season on the DL with a forearm strain.

Lohse is 3-1 with a 3.20 ERA at home this season and he gets two starts at Busch Stadium III this week, squaring off against Milwaukee and Kansas City.

Garland is the anti-Lohse, pitching much better on the road than at Chase Field. All five of his HR allowed happened at home. Meanwhile his road ERA stands at 1.35 in two games. He pitches at Florida and at Oakland this week.

Bush has nice numbers this season except for his HR/9 rate, which checks in at 1.53 after eight games. He has road starts at Houston and at Minnesota. According to ESPN park factors, Minute Maid Park has the third highest park factor for homers while the Metrodome ranks 19th.

Detwiler is a lefty who has hit 95 mph in the minors. Last year in the Hi-A Carolina League, he recorded a 53.4 percent groundball rate. Detwiler had an 0-3 record this year in Double-A, but he had a 2.96 ERA and a 2.80 K/BB ratio.

Kevin Slowey shows us that it’s not enough to just not walk guys. If your stuff is hittable, batters will earn their bases on the field.

That said, Slowey had a very nice year last year, and with a K/9 right around the league average (6.90 K/9), there was some hope that he would build on the campaign and take another step forward this year.

So far, fans and fantasy managers are still waiting for that step forward. Instead, Slowey’s strikeout rate has fallen almost a full run (6.02), and his 1.54 WHIP is full of dinks, dunks and blasts. It’s certainly not walks, as Slowey still sports an elite walk rate (0.89 BB/9). The question lingers: how much of this poor start is lousy luck and how much is due to mediocre stuff?

Luck has surely played a big part. His BABIP is .370 and his FIP is 4.44, so his ERA is a little bloated by the luck of the bounce. But even the secondary statistics can’t agree about his luck. He’s sporting a 35.4% infield fly ball rate, which is unsustainably lucky (it’s 15% for his career). Also, he’s stranding 76.6% of his baserunners, which is slightly lucky. And for a guy with a career home run rate over 1 per game, his 10.8% home run per fly ball rate is very neutral.

He’s also giving up a career high 24.1% line drive rate, which is a good spot to start talking about his stuff. With an 89 MPH fastball, an 84 MPH slider, a 74 MPH curveball and an 83 MPH changeup, there’s just not enough differentiation in speed between his pitches to really keep the hitters off balance. He’s usually in the zone (see his walk rate), and his 91.3% contact rate in the zone puts him at 24th worst in the league in that category. (Teammate Glen Perkins ‘leads’ the league with batters making contact on 98% of pitches inside the zone, and Nick Blackburn is 23rd, so there’s something in the water in Minnesota, it seems.)

A quick look at some pitch F/X samples doesn’t provide too many clues. Slowey’s slider is actually breaking a couple inches more this year, and the rest of his stuff seems intact, with one major caveat. Slowey has lost almost a mile per hour on his fastball (89.9 to 89.2). His slider has lost one and a half miles per hour (85.7 to 84.1). Since he wasn’t much of a strikeout pitcher to begin with, and his stuff isn’t very fierce either, this slight velocity loss may be some of the reason for his poor start this year. Without more velocity history, it’s hard to tell if this is a temporary blip or not, but a peek at his next pitch f/x data would be a good idea for those thinking of acquiring him. A few ‘90’s on the gun would serve him well.

Another interesting question that arises when looking at Slowey’s numbers is if he should pitch outside the zone a little more. Batters are reaching on 26.2% of his offerings outside the strike zone, a number in line with his past (25.9% career). That number also puts him right next to such strikeout luminaries as Felix Hernandez and Jake Peavy. Since batters make contact on 72.9% on those pitches, it may be possible that Slowey could expand his zone a little for better results.

Baltimore Orioles fans must live a peculiar existence these days, with one eye on the Jones’ and Markakis’ of the major league squad and the other eye fixed squarely on the minor league box scores, checking up on the Wieters’, Tillman’s and Matusz’s of the system.

It would be difficult to fault anyone for taking such an approach. Residing in baseball’s most challenging division, the O’s currently sit at 16-21, with a -30 run differential that ranks dead last in the American League. The main culprit has been the starting rotation. Calling upon fellows named “Eaton” and “Hendrickson”, Baltimore has gotten a collective 5.41 FIP from its starters, which ranks ahead of only the homer-happy Phillies group.

However, not all is bleak. The Orioles appear to have landed themselves a quality starter on the free agent market this past winter in Koji Uehara.

A Japanese import, Uehara came stateside with the reputation for pounding the strike zone. He’s done just that, with 7 unintentional free passes in 42.2 innings pitched (1.48 BB/9). The 34 year-old right-hander has been as adept as any starter in terms of getting ahead 0-1 or inducing contact on the first pitch. His 69.4 First-Pitch Strike Percentage is significantly above the 57.7% major league average, and ranks behind only Arizona’s Dan Haren (71.6%) among all starters.

While no one will mistake Uehara for a power pitcher, he’s no weakling out there either. The former Yomiuri Giant has managed to strike out 6.75 batters per nine innings, giving him a sterling 4.57 K/BB ratio that places 7th among starters. Uehara’s repertoire is expansive: in addition to an 87.2 MPH fastball (used 56.6% of the time), he unleashes an 82 MPH cutter (6.7%) and a 66.1 MPH curveball (81.7 MPH). Of course, his bread-and-butter offering is a dastardly 79.3 MPH splitter, a strikeout pitch thrown 32.5% of the time (our pitch data also shows him throwing a few changeups, but those are likely splitters as well).

That splitter offers great contrast to his rather modest heater. Uehara’s fastball actually has a significant amount of vertical movement for a pitch thrown at such velocity, with 12.2 inches of vertical break compared to a pitch thrown without spin. His splitter, in contrast, has 6.3 inches of vertical movement (Pitch F/X classifies it as a changeup, but most everyone refers to it as a splitter).

Take a look at this release point chart from Uehara’s last start against the Yankees, on May 10th. Notice how his release points on the fastball and splitter (called a changeup here) overlap:

Now, note the pronounced difference between Uehara’s fastball and splitter, in terms of vertical movement (focus on the green and orange dots):

The two pitches come out of a similar arm slot, with about a 7 MPH difference in velocity. Yet, one drops a half-foot more than the other at the last moment. That’s deceptive, and has likely contributed to Uehara garnering a good deal of swings on outside pitches. His Outside-Swing Percentage sits at 30.8, above the 24.4% MLB average.

Uehara does have one flaw. Namely, his penchant for putting the ball in the air. As one might expect from a guy working up in the zone with mid-to-high-80’s cheddar, Uehara has posted one of the lowest groundball rates in the big leagues. His 26.3% mark is second only to Ted Lilly (23.6%). That flyball-centric approach has led to 1.27 home runs per nine innings.

Koji Uehara did not venture to the majors with near the same degree of fanfare as some recent Japanese players, but he has acclimated himself about as well as one could have hoped for. With a 4.04 FIP and a nasty splitter, Uehara will hold the fort until Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta and company are ready for prime time.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 7.

Ricky Nolasco – Yes, when you drafted Nolasco you thought he’d be one of your top pitchers when he was healthy. But instead he’s been horrible. Maybe Nolasco is hiding an injury or maybe his teammates are tipping all of his pitches. Either way, you do not want him in your lineup for two lousy starts. The fear is that the moment you take him out is when he rights the ship but is that upside worth the damage he could do to your staff? Nolasco leads the NL in hits allowed (58) and ER (36).

Scott Baker – So far in 2009, Baker has a 2.14 HR/9 mark. This week he goes on the road to face the White Sox against their top pitcher, Mark Buehrle. And his second start he faces the Brewers, who are tied for the lead in the NL with 45 HRs.

Shairon Martis – Yes, he’s 5-0 but his peripherals are underwhelming. And LHB have really feasted on Martis this year. Lefties have a .319/.394/.473 mark in 104 PA versus the rookie from Curacao. The Pirates lineup features five lefty hitters while the Orioles as a team are batting .288/.362/.474 versus RHP.

Brandon McCarthy – The Texas pitcher is 3-1 and has two road starts this week. Ordinarily that would be a good thing, but McCarthy actually has pitched better at home so far this season. Still, his pitching matchups are Dontrelle Willis and Mike Hampton. The Rangers are third in the league in runs scored, they have a .292 AVG versus LHP and should be able to give McCarthy good run support versus pitchers who are several years removed from their last good season.

Jason Hammel – Yes, the ERA looks really bad but Hammel has been killed at Coors Field, where he has allowed 12 ER in 10 IP. This week he has two road starts, where Hammel has yet to give up a run in 10 innings. Plus, he gets to face Jo-Jo Reyes and Willis in his two starts. This is a good guy to pick up off the waiver wire for this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 7 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Haren, J. Johnson, F. Hernandez, Hamels, Shields, Lilly, Lee Buehrle, Jurrjens, Pettitte, Wolf, Young, Wakefield, E. Santana, Washburn, Richmond, Zito, Bannister, Pineiro, Perkins, Ohlendorf, Marquis, Palmer, Tallet, Looper, Willis, Hampton, Owings, Niemann, Augenstein, Bergesen, Outman, Gallagher, Karstens, Redding, Reyes, Richard.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 5 and how they did.

Beckett – Advised to sit. W, 10 K, 4.50 ERA, 1.67 WHIP (2 starts)
Volstad – Advised to sit. 6 K, 3.75 ERA, 1.50 WHIP (2)
Buehrle – Advised to start. W, 5 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.38 WHIP (1)
Maholm – Advised to start. 9 K, 6.57 ERA, 1.46 WHIP (2)
Paulino – Advised to start but sent to bullpen.

It’s time for the inaugural edition of the RotoGraphs Mailbag. Our email address for this feature is rotographs+mailbag@fangraphs.com, so send in your questions! Remember to try to give us all relevant information in the fewest words possible, and you’ll be all set.

In a 10-team mixed league I was offered Lincecum for Bruce, Baker and Joba. I’ve got plenty of depth at SP with Haren, Vazquez, Gallardo, Meche, Slowey and Ubaldo (we start 10 pitchers and have no bench). I’d replace Bruce with Fowler/Morgan. It’s not a keeper league.
Thanks guys, D.S.

While I’m always a proponent of consolidating talent in shallow leagues, this really tests the assumption that you should always take the best player in a trade. Tim Lincecum is by far and away the best player in this trade, that much is for sure. Amazingly, he’s upped his otherworldly strikeout rate and dropped his walk rate this year. In fact, with at .368 BABIP against, he’s been unlucky, if you can believe that. Other than the fact that he led all pitchers under 25 in Baseball Prospectus’ Pitcher Abuse Points last year, there’s little to worry about.

But you don’t have the luxury of moving pitchers in and out. You need to field six or seven good starting pitchers, not just one or two and a bunch of spot starters. Dropping from Joba Chamberlain and Scott Baker to Lincecum alone will hurt your depth and cause you to go to the waiver wire for pitching. And starting pitching on the waiver wire is pretty barren these days. I say you hold on to your buy-low trio and reap the benefits of their return to grace.

As David pointed out, Jay Bruce is only on the way up from here. Chamberlain still has an elite strikeout rate himself (8.83 K/9), despite a step back. It is upsetting that his HR/9 almost doubled and his BB/9 is up a full walk, and also that his fastball is down almost three miles per hour over last year. People are reaching a lot less, too (20.5% this year, 26.3% career). (Wait, why was I recommending you keep him?) Baker, though, should rebound for sure. After giving up 9.5% HR/FB over his career (MLB average hovers around 10%), Baker is serving up home runs on 18.6% of his fly balls. Nothing else is out of order, so he should return to his customary value as that number falls.

Sure, none of these guys are Lincecum. But if you’re already playing Ubaldo Jimenez, it might get ugly quickly if you start looking for another pitcher on the wire. Perhaps more knowledge about the pitching on the wire would shift this trade into the ‘do’ category.

I am in a 12-team mixed head-to-head league and am considering trading Adam Lind for Shin-Soo Choo for a couple reasons: 1) I like the more balanced stats Choo brings to my team (more R and SB), and 2), I think Lind may be overvalued right now considering his hot start (BABIP of .384), and vice-versa for Choo. Based on Choo’s great second half last year, and improving BB% and K% this year, I think he has a decent chance of outperforming Lind even in HR and 2B and RBI. Would you make this trade?
Thanks, M. R.

Wow, you did a lot of the analysis for us here. But the question is still interesting, for another reason. These players are actually very similar: they are high-line drive hitters that should hit for solid averages. They both may have mediocre home run totals by the end of the year, as well.

The under-rated Shin-Soo Choo’s career fly-ball percentage is low for a power hitter, at 32%, but he’s settled in around 36% the last two years. His line drive rate has been nothing short of elite – it’s at 26.4% this year (8th in the majors), and 23.8% for his career. Line drive rate is positively correlated with batting average, and with the improving walk and strike-out rates, Choo is indeed a very safe producer in batting average. A 68% success rate on steals should mean he’ll comfortably continue to pilfer bags, too.

Adam Lind has the same low fly-ball percentage (33.5% career), and also sports a great line drive rate this year (25.4%). However, his career line drive rate is nowhere near Choo’s elite status at 19.8%, a figure that has largely been skewed by this year’s excellence. Because Lind has always sported a double-digit HR/FB rate, while Choo hasn’t, ZiPS likes Lind to hit another 14 homers while it likes Choo to total 14 for the year. However, with Lind’s low fly ball percentage this year (29.5%), he’ll have to start getting those infield flies (25.8%) out of the park for the power projections to be correct. He certainly is busting out, as Dave Cameron outlined here.

I think you’re right in taking the safer choice of the two. Choo’s added steals should make up for the five or six home runs he may lack compared to Lind. But I can’t help wondering: Can you upgrade somewhere else since Lind’s name is so hot right now? Add a second pair of players into the deal in order to cash in on Lind’s rising star and better current numbers.