Here is the latest update to Week 17 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

WSX – Buehrle
CUB – Dempster
MIL – Dillard
WSN – Balester

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

CUB – Harden
BAL – Hill
MIL – Burns
KCR – Chen

Buehrle can be forgiven for wondering what a fellow has to do to get in a fantasy lineup. He is 11-3 and in his last start he pitched a perfect game. Yet at press time he was starting in only 78 percent of CBS Sports leagues, with 16 two-start pitchers this week having a higher percentage. For what it is worth, Buehrle’s FIP is 4.21 compared to a 3.28 ERA this season.

Dempster is slated to be activated this week in time for a Tuesday start against Houston. Dempster has been out with a broken toe. Prior to the injury, Dempster was struggling to match last year’s output, as he allowed more home runs and had a lower strand rate than a season ago. However, Dempster had been on a roll, with Quality Starts in six of his last seven outings before the injury.

Dillard returned to the rotation after spending all of last season as a reliever. He posted an impressive 10-4 mark in Triple-A but posted only a 3.36 K/9 ratio. A fastball-slider pitcher with little room for error, fantasy owners should not rush out to add him to their squad.

Balester can dial it up to the mid 90s with his fastball and he has a plus pitch with his curve. But he has had trouble parlaying that into success in his limited exposure to the majors. Balester was 7-9 with a 4.35 ERA in Triple-A this year and in his only start with the Nationals he gave up three runs (two earned) in three-plus innings.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 17

Jon Garland – Earlier in the year it was pretty easy with Garland. You simply benched him for his home starts and inserted him back in the lineup for his road outings. But Garland in his last five starts has a 2.73 ERA and two of those games have been at home and both were Quality Starts. A home start versus Philadelphia could be dicey, but that should be made up for in a road start in pitcher-friendly Citi Field against the punchless Mets.

Tommy Hunter – After getting pounded in his major league debut last season, Hunter has had an impressive five outings for the Rangers in 2009. And yes, he has unquestionably been lucky so far, with a .256 BABIP and an 87 percent strand rate. But I like the 23-year old to maintain his good fortune for at least one more week with home starts against the Tigers and Mariners.

Jason Marquis – Usually I avoid recommending starting the top pitchers. But since not everyone has gotten the memo on Marquis, I figured I would mention him. Can anyone else remember a season where the NL leader in wins after the All-Star break might be available on the waiver wire in your league? Marquis is a free agent in 51.5 percent of ESPN leagues. He does have a blister problem but is scheduled this week for road starts at the Mets and at the Reds.

Joe Saunders – Through the first 15 games of the season, Saunders was living large and was cruising along with an 8-4 record and 3.66 ERA despite rotten peripherals, continuing his path from 2008. But in his last five outings Saunders has a 9.82 ERA and only some fine work by Angels hitters have kept his record at 0-2. Maybe it is a bad stretch or maybe it is regression finally catching up to him, but either way it is hard to put him in the lineup this week for two starts.

Randy Wolf – After undergoing a rough patch in June, Wolf has rebounded with five straight Quality Starts with 25 Ks in 31.2 innings in that stretch. His peripherals still suggest a pitcher benefiting from luck, but owners should role the dice with Wolf this week. He has two road starts, but has been a better pitcher away from Chavez Ravine. Wolf has a 4-2 record with a 2.90 ERA in road games this year, a full run lower than his home ERA.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 17 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Lincecum, Wainwright, F. Hernandez, Hamels, Burnett, Beckett, Carpenter, Oswalt, Billingsley, Zambrano, Weaver, Jurrjens, W. Rodriguez, Nolasco, Shields, Harden, Danks, Washburn, Romero, Arroyo, Pelfrey, Buchholz, Galarraga, Maholm, Zito, Correia, Bannister, Pavano, Moyer, O. Perez, Cahill, Perkins, Padilla, Suppan, H. Bailey, Mazzaro, Stammen, Geer, Hill, Burns, Berken, Chen.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Here is the latest update to Week 16 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

CHC – Lilly
PHI – Blanton
LAD – Schmidt
NYY – Mitre
SD – Stauffer
MIL – Burns
FLA – VandenHurk
KC – Ponson

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

WSX – Danks
KC – Meche
PHI – Moyer
LAD – Weaver
SD – Banks

Lilly is seventh in the majors with a 4.21 K/BB ratio. He has always been a good strikeout pitcher but this season he has a BB/9 ratio under two for the first time in his career. Still, Lilly has been lucky with his 80.4 percent strand rate, which has led to a FIP 64 points above his ERA.

Blanton’s ERA stood at 7.11 after eight starts this season. Since then, he has a 4-1 record with a 2.44 ERA and 54 strikeouts in 59 innings. Seven of his last nine games have been Quality Starts.

Schmidt is poised to make his first start in the majors since June 16, 2007. He has been out since then due to shoulder problems. Schmidt make eight rehab appearances in the minors and was 2-0 with a 4.18 ERA at Triple-A Albuquerque, where he fanned 25 batters in 32.1 innings.

Mitre was 3-1 in seven starts at Triple-A Scranton-Wilkes Barre. He had 35 strikeouts and five walks in 45 innings. Mitre, who pitched for the Cubs and Marlins, has not appeared in the majors since September of 2007.

Stauffer seeks to follow up his fine 2009 major league debut and the schedule maker has given him a favorable week, with a home game against Florida and a road tilt versus Washington.

Burns has a very nice 2.71 K/BB ratio but all of his other numbers are shaky. Fewer than 30 percent of his batted balls are grounders and he has an ugly 2.08 HR/9 mark.

VandenHurk opened the season on the 60-day disabled list with elbow soreness. The 6’5 righty was 4-1 with 2.71 ERA at Triple-A. New Orleans is one of the best pitchers parks in the PCL and VandenHurk was 3-0 with 1.82 ERA at home compared to 1-1 with a 3.75 ERA on the road.

Ponson still averages 91.6 with his fastball. And he is still nowhere close to a relevant fantasy option. In 11 games with the Royals this year, he has a 7.27 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP.

Heading into the 2009 season, Toronto lefty Ricky Romero was viewed as something of a disappointment. The Blue Jays ponied up $2.4 million to make Romero the 6th overall pick in the 2005 draft out of Cal State Fullerton. Many fans and analysts derided the selection, noting the club passed up more heralded talents such as Troy Tulowitzki, Cameron Maybin, Andrew McCutchen and Jay Bruce.

It’s not that Romero had been a “bust”, mind, you. He just hadn’t really stood out. While Tulowitzki, Maybin, McCutchen and Bruce went on to become prospect darlings and organizational building blocks, Romero entered the ’09 season as the third-best lefty pitching prospect in the Toronto system (behind Brett Cecil and Brad Mills), according to Baseball America.

His peripherals in the minors, while not poor, were bland. Romero punched out seven batters per nine innings, while generously dishing out free passes (3.8 BB/9). Baseball America called him a future “number 3 or 4 starter.” Truth be told, most teams would gladly take such production from a first-rounder. But having selected Romero at the expense of five-tool talents, the Jays were left wanting more.

So far in 2009, Romero has at least slightly eased the pain of passing on the Tulowitzkis and McCutchens of the world. In 14 starts, the 6-1, 200 pounder has compiled a 3.25 ERA. How has Romero come to post the 7th-lowest ERA in the A.L., and what should we expect moving forward? Let’s try to answer those questions.

While Romero has been legitimately impressive, a closer look at his numbers reveals a discord between his ERA and fielding-independent stats. Ricky has racked up 7.59 K/9, while issuing 3.45 BB/9. His Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP, based on a pitcher’s strikeouts, walks and a normalized HR/FB ratio to root out extreme performances on flyballs) is 3.98. Not that there’s anything wrong with that: Romero’s XFIP ranks 9th in the A.L. But, he has benefitted from an 84.8% strand rate, which is a good 13-14% above the league average.

The former Titan totes a four-pitch mix, keeping hitters off balance with a 91 MPH fastball (thrown 51.9% of the time), 83 MPH slider (15.1%), 77 MPH curve (10%) and an 84 MPH changeup (23.1%). Romero’s heater (-0.83 runs/100 pitches) and slider (-1.12) haven’t been instilling fear into the opposition, but his curve has been above average (+0.26) and the changeup has been superb (+3.45).

Romero has long been noted for pulling the string well, which helps to explain his reverse platoon split (.228/.321/.371 vs. RHB, .314/.352/.559 vs. LHB). That trend was also present throughout his minor league career. According to Minor League Splits, Romero had a 4.50 FIP against lefty batters (4.56 BB/9) and a 4.25 mark against righties (3.33 BB/9).

The 24 year-old still isn’t showing the best of control. Romero has placed 46.6% of his pitches within the strike zone (49.3% MLB average), while tossing a first-pitch strike 56.8% of the time (58% MLB avg). On the other hand, Ricky is getting a decent number of outside swings (hitters are chasing 26.9% of his offerings out of the zone, compared to the 25 percent MLB average) and he has a quality contact rate (76.4%, 80.7% MLB avg).

Romero hasn’t been as impressive as his ERA would imply, but he has certainly been a quality starter in his first foray in the majors. He’s missing a decent number of bats with a deep arsenal of pitches, while also keeping the ball on the turf (51.8 GB%). The question moving forward will be: can he limit the walks? Intermittent control plagued Romero throughout his minor league career. For what it’s worth, ZiPS is predicting Romero to return to Earth with a big thud (5.46 ERA, 5.33 K/9 and 4.89 BB/9 during the rest of the 2009 season).

That seems awfully harsh. Granted, Romero toils in the ultra-competitive A.L. East, with a troubling history of missing his spots in the minors. And it’s also true that we’re examining what amounts to a half-season’s worth of data in the majors. But there’s nothing that screams “fluke” in Romero’s big league numbers. He definitely won’t continue posting an ERA in the low three’s, but it seems reasonable to hope for a mark in the low four’s from here on out. Romero is no future ace, but he’s also not a lost cause by any stretch of the imagination.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 16

Nick Blackburn – This season Blackburn is 5-0 at home and has allowed just one HR in 57.1 IP. On the road he is 3-4 and he has allowed nine HR in 66 IP. With road starts at Oakland and at Anaheim, it might be a good time to pull him from the lineup if you have a reasonable alternative.

Brett Cecil – The rookie has appeared in nine games for Toronto this season, making eight starts. The overall numbers do not look very good, but he has five Quality Starts. In his three bad outings, one came on the road in Fenway Park and the other came on the road in Yankee Stadium. I like him for a guy to pick up this week for his two home starts against the Indians and the Rays.

Chad Gaudin – You have to like the 9.58 K/9 ratio. Unfortunately, that comes with a WHIP-killing 4.95 BB/9. However, in his last six starts, Gaudin has a 1.115 WHIP and a 3.11 ERA. And with a home start versus Florida and a road start at Washington, Gaudin has a chance to pull out a win or two if he continues his recent strong pitching.

Kyle Lohse – This year Lohse is 4-3 with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.068 WHIP at home and is 0-2 with a 6.14 ERA and a 1.727 WHIP on the road. Last year in his first year with the Cardinals, Lohse was 8-2 with a 3.32 ERA at home and 1.140 WHIP while away from Busch Stadium he was 7-4 with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.524 WHIP. With road starts at Houston and at Philadelphia, put Lohse on the bench this week.

Ervin Santana – He got his second win of the season in the Angels’ first game back from the All-Star break, as he allowed just two walks in eight innings. Santana has been on the DL twice this season, first with an elbow injury and more recently due to a triceps injury. But Santana hit 94 on the radar last night and is rounding back into the pitcher he was last year when he posted 16 wins. Get him in the lineup this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 16 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lee, Danks, Lowe, Braden, Floyd, Millwood, Scherzer, Pettitte, Hanson, Price, Smoltz, Meche, Lannan, Davis, Galarraga, Porcello, De La Rosa, Sanchez, Moyer, Niemann, Ohlendorf, Wellemeyer, L. Hernandez, Sadowski, Moehler, Olson, Owings, Richard, Gonzalez, V. Vasquez, D. Hernandez, Jeff Weaver, Swarzak, Lopez, O’Sullivan, Banks.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 14 and how they did.

Contreras – Advised to start. W, 1.42 ERA, 5 K, 1.00 WHIP (1 start)
Garland – Advised to sit. W, 2.57 ERA, 9 K, 1.29 WHIP (2)
Pelfrey – Advised to start. W, 6.30 ERA, 8 K, 1.80 WHIP (2)
Romero – Advised to start. W, 3.77 ERA, 8 K, 1.40 WHIP (2)
Zimmemann – Advised to sit. 4.35 ERA, 9 K, 1.84 WHIP (2)

The Philadelphia Phillies’ rotation has been something of a mess in 2009. The defending champs paid Adam Eaton to go far, far away during the spring. Then, projected #2 Brett Myers went down with a hip injury. Cole Hamels missed time with an elbow ailment. Jamie Moyer looked more like a pinata than a pitcher in the early going, though he has since settled down. The Phillies resorted to giving starts to the likes of Chan Ho Park, Antonio Bastardo and Rodrigo Lopez.

With all of those unpleasant developments, the emergence of lefty J.A. Happ couldn’t have come at a more opportune time. In 65.1 innings (10 starts) in the rotation, the 26 year-old Northwestern product has compiled a 3.03 ERA and a perfect 4-0 record. Should we expect Happ to keep the happy times rolling, or is he due for a fall?

J.A.’s peripherals suggest that he’s been more adequate than awesome. With 6.06 K/9, 3.17 BB/9 and a 1.38 HR/9 in the rotation, Happ has a pedestrian 4.85 Fielding Independent ERA. The homer rate looks bloated, but it’s hard to say that the figure should dip much in the coming months. Happ is an extreme flyball pitcher (career 33.6 GB% in the majors) in a ballpark that has inflated home run production by a healthy margin. His home run/flyball rate in the rotation (11.2%) is right around the league average.
Happ has benefitted from plenty of fortunate bounces on balls put in play (.247 BABIP), while stranding an inordinate 88.1% of base runners while in the rotation.

While in the minors, J.A. K’d plenty of hitters with his plus changeup (9.3 K/9 during his minor league career, including 10.1 per nine with AAA Lehigh Valley in 2008). However, Happ also likes to work high in the zone with a fastball that sits roughly 88-91 MPH. Take a look at his Pitch F/X data: his fastball is straight as an arrow (1.8 inches of tailing action in on lefties), with 12.2 inches of vertical break. That above-the-belt approach didn’t cause that much damage in the minor leagues (0.7 HR/9), but Happ has surrendered 1.25 HR/9 during the course of his big league career. J.A. also doesn’t necessarily fit the “finesse lefty” profile, either, as he issued 3.5 BB/9 in the minors (3.52 BB/9 in the majors).

The purpose of this post certainly isn’t to knock Happ; he’s a perfectly useful fourth or fifth starter, and clearly a better alternative to the Kyle Kendrick’s and Park’s of the world. But, it’s probably a good idea not to get too enamored by his fast start as a starter. Heading into the 2009 season, Baseball America said the following about Happ (dubbed the 9th-best prospect in the system): “Happ lacks a standout pitch and doesn’t figure to get all those strikeouts on fastballs as easily in the majors as he did in Triple A…He projects as a fourth starter in the long term.”

That assessment still seems accurate to me. Happ can post a league-average K rate, while handing out a few too many free passes and homers to be more than a good back-of-the-rotation option. ZiPS forecasts a 4.93 FIP for Happ for the rest of the 2009 season. There’s nothing wrong with playing Happ in deeper leagues. Just don’t be totally surprised if some of those bloops evade gloves and the Houdini act with runners on base comes to an end.

Last month, my friend and colleague Derek Carty of The Hardball Times (THT) wrote a provocative article questioning the utility of FIP. Carty wrote, “While the original, underlying premise for FIP is sound, and while it’s absolutely better to use than simple ERA, and while there are certainly uses for FIP in some circumstances, for 99 percent of fantasy purposes, I ignore FIP completely and absolutely.”

Carty proceeded to list pitchers he believed were under and over valued by FIP, mainly due to their HR rate. He suggested that instead of FIP, we use LIPS (Luck Independent Pitching Stats). The problem with LIPS is that it takes a lot of work to calculate and is not freely available on a regular basis.

Since the main beef with FIP is HR rate, it should be relatively similar to use xFIP, a stat invented by THT which they describe as: “Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. This is an experimental stat that adjusts FIP and ‘normalizes’ the home run component. Research has shown that home runs allowed are pretty much a function of flyballs allowed and home park, so xFIP is based on the average number of home runs allowed per outfield fly. Theoretically, this should be a better predicter (sic) of a pitcher’s future ERA.”

As a general rule, most starting pitchers will have a HR/FB rate around 11 percent in a full season’s worth of pitching. However, there are always going to be exceptions to the rule. In 2008, Cliff Lee had the lowest HR/FB rate with a mark of 5.1 percent while Brandon Backe checked in with the highest at 16.1 percent. In 2007, the low was 4.1 percent while the high was 17.7 percent.

So, from a fantasy owner’s point of view, when evaluating pitchers should you look to normalize HR rate and use xFIP or are you just as likely to come out with a correct answer if you use FIP?

Here at the All-Star break, I have gone through and compiled a list of pitchers who have a difference 0.50 or greater between their FIP (taken from FanGraphs) and their xFIP. This list was done by hand, so it is possible I omitted someone by mistake. Please alert me if you come across someone I missed.

We have 34 people with a 0.50 or greater difference between their FIP and xFIP. Unfortunately, these are not all people you would want to have in a standard 12-team mixed league but the vast majority of these are roster worthy.

At the end of the year, I am going to come back to this list and see which one of these metrics was better for fantasy purposes. I am going to take the midpoint between their FIP and xFIP and compare it to their real life ERA in the second half of the season.

Using Greinke as an example, 2.55 is the midpoint between his FIP and xFIP. So, if Greinke’s ERA in the second half is 3.33, I will count that as a “win” for xFIP. On the flip side, if Greinke’s second half ERA is 2.22, I will count that as a “win” for FIP.

I am curious to find out what the raw score will be. My guess is that it will be fairly close to 50-50, with neither metric enjoying a huge advantage. Perhaps more importantly, I will also look to see if either metric does a better job of predicting a certain class of pitcher.

Regardless of what the results are in 2009, it is only one season’s worth of information.

When Dan Haren was shipped from the A’s to the Diamondbacks for a king’s ransom of prospects (Brett Anderson, Chris Carter, Aaron Cunningham, Dana Eveland, Carlos Gonzalez and Greg Smith) in December of 2007, he was already regarded as one of the top starters in the majors. Oakland plucked the right-hander from St. Louis back in 2004 as part of the lamentable (from a Redbirds standpoint) Mark Mulder deal.

In his three seasons wearing green and gold, Haren posted FIP’s of 3.89, 4.12 and 3.70. Haren accumulated an average of 4.3 Wins Above Replacement, and his performance was worth a total of nearly $49 million to the A’s. From 2005-2007, his strikeout-to-walk ratio was a robust 3.47-to-one.

As it turns out, Haren was just getting started. Check out his numbers since heading to the desert:

2008: 216 IP, 3.01 FIP, 5.15 K/BB
2009: 130 IP, 2.70 FIP, 8.06 K/BB

The shaggy righty was worth 6.4 WAR in 2008 ($28.8M on the free agent market), and he’s on pace to obliterate that total with 4.3 WAR already in 2009. He has basically morphed from an All-Star level starter to some Curt Schilling-esque control deity.

Haren has always possessed a deep mix of pitches, but there’s really no telling what he’ll chuck to hitters these days. In his first year with Oakland back in 2005, Haren threw his fastball 59.2% of the time. This season, he has only called on the heater 47.6%. That 91 MPH offering has been dominant (tops among all starters at +2.47 runs/100 pitches; knuckleballer Tim Wakefield is a very distant second at +1.57). But that’s just the opening act for Haren:

86.7 MPH cutter (thrown 19.6% of the time): +2.67 runs/100

78.3 MPH curveball (thrown 20%): +0.13

85.3 MPH splitter (thrown 12.8%): +2.24

Haren’s cutter ranks 4th among qualified starters in total run value at +9.8 runs (a counting stat, compared to the rate stat of runs/100; some guys at the top of the leader board have high runs/100 values but pretty much never throw the pitch in question). His splitter checks in at number two in total run value, at +5.4. In other words, Mr. Haren has three out pitches (fastball, cutter, splitter), with a league-average curve in his back pocket for good measure.

Want to see confusion in the batter’s box personified? Take a look at Haren’s plate discipline stats sometime. In 2005, his Outside-Swing% was 24.1%, close to the MLB average. Hitters have chased Haren’s stuff out of the zone about 30% of the time during his Arizona tenure. His overall contact rate sat around 80% during his time with the A’s (right around the MLB average), but it’s down to 74.7% in 2009.

Haren’s First-Pitch Strike% is up nearly 10 percent since his Oakland days (from 59.2% in 2005 to 68.3% in 2009; the MLB avg. is 58 percent). Opposing batters are also more timid when it comes to taking a hack against pitches within the zone, as Danny’s Z-Swing% (pct. of pitches swung at within the strike zone) has dropped from 68% in ’05 to 62.7% in 2009 (the MLB average is about 66 percent).

Dan Haren is awesome. I know this is not a particularly shocking conclusion: everyone knows he’s great. But I’m not sure that most realize just how great Haren has become. The 28 year-old deserves a prominent place in the discussion of baseball’s best starter.

Here is the latest update to Week 14 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

ANA – Lackey
TB – Shields
WSX – Buehrle
CUB – Dempster
ARZ – D. Davis
SEA – Bedard
OAK – Braden
TEX – Padilla
STL – Wellemeyer
OAK – B. Anderson
TOR – Mills

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

TB – Garza
LAD – Kuroda
WSX – Contreras
SEA – Vargas
OAK – G. Gonzalez
TEX – Holland

Lackey has a career high .337 BABIP and a career low 69 percent strand rate. But he has gone seven or more innings in seven of his last eight starts and has two home starts this week.

Shields also gets two home starts this week. He has 4 W and a 3.18 ERA at Tropicana Field this year. He has very similar rate stats to a year ago but in 2008 he averaged 4.92 runs per game and went 14-8. This year he receives 4.11 runs per game and his record is 6-6.

Buehrle has a .260 BABIP and a 78.4 percent strand rate. That’s led to a 4.09 FIP compared to a 3.09 ERA and an overall record of 8-2 despite HR, SO and BB rates the same or worse as last year’s 15-12, 3.79 ERA season.

Dempster has been unable to repeat the magic from his 2008 season. He is still performing at better than his career averages in most metrics but the 32-year old is a .500 pitcher. His fastball, which was such a good pitch for him last year, checks in at -10.4 according to Pitch Type Values.

Davis gets two home starts which is normally a good thing. But the big lefty is just 1-5 in Chase Field this year, where he has allowed eight of his 11 home runs.

Bedard is slated to return on Tuesday after missing a month with a sore shoulder. He threw a simulated game on Friday and Seattle manager Don Wakamatsu was impressed with the results of the 54-pitch outing.

Braden has gone at least five innings in each of his 17 games this season. He changes speeds, keeps the ball in the park (0.59 HR/9) and does not hurt himself with walks (2.37 BB/9). Braden’s best pitch is his changeup, which has an average speed over 15 mph slower than his fastball and one that checks in with a 7.8 Pitch Type Value.

Padilla is throwing as hard as ever but has the worst strikeout rate of his career. He has a career average of 6.15 SO/9 and last season posted a 6.68 rate. But in 2009 it is down to a 4.86 mark.

Wellemeyer has a .336 BABIP and it is lefty batters doing most of the damage. LHB have a .342/.417/.595 mark against him this year. Batting against Wellemeyer turns the average lefty batter into Prince Fielder. But oddly enough, Fielder has a .200/.333/.200 line against Wellemeyer this season in six at-bats.

Anderson averages 91.8 mph with his fastball but his slider is his best pitch. Anderson throws his slider 31 percent of the time, which would be the sixth-highest figure in MLB if he had enough innings to qualify.

Mills has had good strikeout numbers throughout the minors and in his brief major league career. But he is hardly overpowering, instead he features a changeup as his strikeout pitch. Mills allowed a 43.5 percent fly ball rate at Dunedin last year and it was 48.3 percent when he was promoted to New Hampshire. This year in his brief tenure with Toronto, he has a 74.1 percent fly ball rate.

Philadelphia Phillies fans are a little uneasy these days. Sure, the defending world champs sit atop the NL East standings, but by the narrowest of margins. Florida is just one game out, with New York and Atlanta each three paces back. Jimmy Rollins’ bat has gone the way of Jimmy Hoffa, and-gasp!- ace Cole Hamels holds an unsightly 4.98 ERA.

Before the Philly Phanatic (no doubt frustrated) resorts to another mascot beat down, I come bearing good news on the Hamels front. The 25 year-old changeup artist might have troubling surface numbers, but he’s arguably pitching better than he did during that magical 2008 season. Here are some reasons to believe Philly’s ace is headed for a big second half:

Hamels’ FIP is well below his ERA

Cole has punched out 8.15 batters per nine innings, while issuing just 1.91 BB/9. That 4.28 K/BB ratio has led to a sparkling 3.58 FIP, which ranks 20th among starting pitchers tossing at least 80 innings. Hamels has been victimized by a .371 Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP), the highest mark among starting pitchers by a wide margin (Minnesota’s Kevin Slowey is a distant second, at .352).

The Phillies largely have the same players on hand that let the majors in team Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) in 2008, but they rank more toward the middle of the pack this season (11th). Even if Philly isn’t scooping up balls put in play at least year’s vacuum-like pace, one would expect Hamel’s BABIP to regress heavily in the second half.

Cole’s career BABIP is .297, and flyball pitchers (his career GB% is 40.3%) tend to have lower BABIP figures in general. According to Baseball-Reference, the NL BABIP for flyballs is .222 in 2009, compared to .230 for groundballs. Hamels, by comparison, has allowed a .268 BABIP on grounders and .314 BABIP on flyballs. He is allowing line drives at an elevated clip (25.7%), which in part explains the higher overall BABIP (line drives tend to fall for hits around 73% of the time), but given his strong peripherals it would be difficult to say that opposing batters are squaring up his pitches all that often.

The 1.4 run difference between Hamels’ FIP and ERA is the second-highest among starters. Only Cleveland’s Carl Pavano (5.36 ERA, 3.75 FIP) has more to gripe about in 2009.

Cole’s contact rates are down from last season

Overall, opposing batters have made contact with 76.2% of Hamels’ offerings, below the 80.6% MLB average and slightly lower than last season’s 76.9% mark. On pitches within the strike zone, Hamels’ contact rate is 80.1%. That’s well below the 87.7% MLB average, and more than three percentage points below 2008’s rate (83.4%).

Hamels’ stuff is the same

Here are Hamels’ 2008 and 2009 figures for horizontal (X) and vertical (Z) movement (a positive X number indicates tailing action in on the hands of lefty hitters, while a negative Z number indicates that the pitch breaks downward more than a ball thrown without spin):

(FB=fastball, CH=changeup, CB=curveball)

2008

FB: 1.9 X, 12 Z
CH: 6.2 X, 7.9 Z
CB: -1.7, -4.0 Z

2009

FB: 3.1 X, 12.5 Z
CH: 7.5 X, 8.2 Z
CB: -1.1 X, -4.0 Z

Hamels’ fastball is tailing in on southpaws a little more, but the differential between his fastball and changeup, in terms of horizontal and vertical break, is basically unchanged. The difference in horizontal break between the fastball and changeup was 4.3 inches in 2008, and 4.4 inches in ’09. In terms of vertical movement, the changeup dropped 4.1 inches more than the fastball in 2008, and 4.3 inches in ’09. Velocity-wise, the gap between fastball and changeup was 10.5 MPH in 2008. In 2009, it’s about 9.7 MPH.

This would be a great time to try and pry Hamels away from a vexed owner, who expected big numbers and might be willing to part with him for a lower sum. Hamels is the same superb starter he has always been, and his surface stats should begin to align with his peripherals in the coming months.