It is a three Hernandez and two Martinez week! Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 20

Fausto Carmona – Since returning from the minors, Carmona has pitched well, with a 2.65 ERA in three starts. But he has allowed more walks (10) than strikeouts (7), his WHIP checks in at 1.588 and his record is 0-1. If those are the numbers he puts up when he is pitching well, what happens with a bad outing or two? Leave him on the bench for his two starts this week.

Manny Parra – It is tough to win games with a 1.84 WHIP yet that is exactly what Parra is doing. He has won his last four starts despite a 6.48 ERA. Unless you are desperate for wins, they are simply not worth the ratios. And with those ratios there is little chance that the wins will continue to follow.

Oliver Perez – Before being sent to the minors, Perez had a 9.97 ERA in five games. Since returning he has posted a 3.72 ERA in seven games. With Perez you are sure of two things: his WHIP is going to be terrible and he is going to pile up strikeouts (38 in 38.2 IP in his last seven games). His ERA has been acceptable since returning so the wild card is his wins total. In his last three starts he left the game with the lead only to see the bullpen blow wins for him. Perez does well against lefty-heavy lineups and this week he faces the Braves and the Phillies. He has won six of 10 career decisions versus Atlanta and Philadelphia features lefty swingers Utley, Howard and Ibanez. Put him in your lineup this week if you can take the WHIP damage.

David Price – The HR rate has really hurt Price this season, especially on the road. He has allowed 13 HR this year and nine of those have come away from Tropicana Field. In home games, Price is 5-1 with a 2.72 ERA and a 1.286 WHIP. Make sure he is active this week with home starts against Baltimore and Texas.

Scott Richmond – Before going to the disabled list with shoulder tendinitis, Richmond was pitching his best ball of the season, going seven or more innings in his last three starts before hitting the DL. His first start back was rough and then he allowed 3 ER in 6 IP his last outing in Yankee Stadium. Richmond has a tough start versus Josh Beckett this week, but I still like him as a two-start pitcher this week with his two home games.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 20 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Lincecum, Beckett, F. Hernandez, Burnett, Verlander, Carpenter, Jimenez, Nolasco, Lowe, Hanson, Buehrle, Dempster, Scherzer, Billingsley, E. Santana, Feldman, Hunter, Norris, Liriano, Pavano, Garland, P. Martinez, Lilly, Bannister, Correia, L. Hernandez, Villanueva, Hart, Bailey, Mazzaro, D. Hernandez, Bell, Jef Weaver, Boggs, J. Martinez, Stammen, Carrillo, Berken.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 18 and how they did.

Baker – Advised to start. W, 4.76 ERA, 7 Ks, 1.15 WHIP (2 starts)
Latos – Advised to start. 2 W, 2.08 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.15 WHIP (2)
Morton – Advised to start. 4.09 ERA, 5 Ks, 1.55 WHIP (2)
Penny – Advised to sit. 7.50 ERA, 5 Ks, 1.33 WHIP (1)
Wells – Advised to sit. W, 4.26 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.42 WHIP (2)

For most pitchers, reaching the latter stages of one’s career entails making concessions to Father Time. That fastball doesn’t hop quite as much as it used to, so it’s probably time to stop challenging hitters up in the zone so often. The slider doesn’t snap like it did in the good old days, so perhaps it’s time to try and add a new pitch to the ol’ bag of tricks.

That’s the deal for most pitchers. John Smoltz took that axiom and turned it right on its head. The 6-3, 220 pound right-hander crushed opposing hitters for years in the Atlanta Braves rotation, and he was still going strong at 32 years old with the Braves back in 1999 (186.1 IP, 3.14 Fielding Independent ERA). He had, however, become increasingly fragile, and his health issues came to a crescendo prior to the 2000 season when he was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery.

Upon returning in 2001, Smoltz transitioned to the bullpen in an attempt to stay off the D.L. This kick-started a new era in his career, as he began a four-year run of dominance out of the ‘pen:

Win Probability Added totals, 2001-2004:

2001: 1.61
2002: 4.67
2003: 3.29
2004: 4.93

It’s not like Smoltz was forced to finesse his way through lineups in the ninth inning, a la Ryan Franklin. He was still dealing, sitting between 95 and 97 MPH with his fastball, snapping off wicked high-80’s sliders and high-80’s splitters that plummeted upon reaching the plate.

That Smoltz was still mauling hitters at age 37 was extraordinary enough. But he then went back in the rotation, topping 200 innings each season from 2005-2007 while posting FIP’s of 3.27, 3.44 and 3.21, respectively. His heater sat around 93, and the slider and splitter were still sharp. 2008 did not go nearly as well, as Smoltz suffered a shoulder injury that shelved him for most of the season.

He made a brief comeback as a reliever, only to blow a save opportunity and opt for season-ending surgery in June. When he was able to take the mound, Smoltz managed to punch out 36 batters in 28 frames, issuing 8 walks and surrendering 25 hits.

Over the off-season, the 42 year-old inked a one-year, incentive-laden deal with the Red Sox. He continued to mend the shoulder, taking an extended rehab assignment (27.1 IP, 21/4 K/BB between Greenville, Portland and Pawtucket) before making his Sox debut on June 25th vs. the Washington Nationals.

Upon first glance, Father Time appears to finally snatched away Smoltz’s ability to blow away hitters at the highest level. He made 8 starts for Boston, getting bombarded for an 8.38 ERA and a 2-5 record in 40 innings pitched. That’s the sort of line that would make Adam Eaton and Sidney Ponson giggle. The Red Sox designated Smoltz for assignment recently, ending the reclamation project of the former Cy Young award winner. Surely Smoltz is done, right?

I’m not so sure. Assuming that Smoltz wishes to continue his career elsewhere, he may still have something to offer. Despite the horrific ERA, John managed to strike out 7.43 batters per nine innings, while issuing 2.03 BB/9. However, a .390 BABIP, an inflated HR/FB rate (14.8%) and an uncharacteristically low 56.9% rate of stranding runners have conspired to make Smoltz look like a pinata.

Smoltz’s stuff, while not vintage, looked good enough to combat most lineups. His fastball sat at 91 MPH (down a tick from the previous few years), with an 85 MPH slider and splitter (he also tossed an occasional high-70’s curveball).

Smoltz’s plate discipline stats suggest that hitters still found that mix difficult to handle at times. He managed a 33.1 Outside-Swing% (30.6 O-Swing% since 2002). Opponents made contact with a few more pitches placed within the strike zone (87.9%, right at the MLB average and 3.8% above his overall rate since 2002). It’s not like batters were roping every pitch he threw: his 18.1% line drive rate was actually below his marks from 2005-2007.

The dichotomy between Smoltz’s actual ERA and his Expected Fielding Independent ERA (4.37) is massive. Taking only a cursory look at his numbers, Smoltz appears to have a fork sticking out of his the back of his jersey instead of his customary “29.” However, the long-time Brave still appears to have something left in the tank, if teams are willing to look past the grisly superficial stats.

To begin the 2009 season, Baltimore Orioles fans were treated to a starting rotation that included the likes of Koji Uehara, Jeremy Guthrie, Mark Hendrickson, Adam Eaton, Rich Hill, and Alfredo Simon. There is no reason to ask why the club is in last place, 23 games out of first in the American League East.

Guthrie and Uehara have not been terrible. At the age of 30, Guthrie doesn’t really have any upside left but he’s developed into a fairly dependable No. 3 starter. He is exposed, though, if a club relies on him to be a No. 1 or 2 starter, which he’s been in Baltimore. Uehara, who came over from Japan prior to the 2009 season, has a torn flexor tendon in his elbow and hasn’t pitched since June. His numbers weren’t bad prior to the injury but the 34-year-old right-hander was pitching like a No. 4 starter.

As grim as the above information is, the future is extremely bright for the Orioles’ starting pitching staff. Fans in Baltimore have already been treated to the MLB debuts for the club’s top two pitching prospects: Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz. Both players have been roughed up a bit at times – mainly due to a lack of command – but their potential is evident. They project to fill in the top of the Orioles’ starting rotation for years to come.

Brad Bergesen has been a surprise contributor to the rotation this season as a rookie. The right-hander was flying under the radar of prospect watchers but he’s made 19 starts for the club and has allowed 126 hits in 123 innings of work. He has a solid ERA at 3.43, as well as a respectable FIP at 4.08. His walk rate is marvelous at 2.34 BB/9 but his strikeout rate is alarmingly low at 4.74 K/9. Bergesen, though, lives and dies by the ground ball and currently has a ground-ball rate of 50.1%. With a fastball that sits right around 89-90 mph, and a good slider, Bergesen, 23, could fill the No. 4 or 5 starter’s role for the Orioles for quite some time.

Like Bergesen, David Hernandez has also provided more innings for the club than expected in ’09. The right-hander has pitched reasonable well, although he’s been a little too hittable with 60 hits allowed in 52.1 innings of work. His walk rate is OK at 3.61 BB/9 but his strikeout rate is quite low at 4.82 K/9, especially considering that he was averaging K/9 rates of 9.50 to 11.00 in the minors. Hernandez is also an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a ground-ball rate of just 29.3%. His stuff is good, though, as he’s been average around 93 mph on the fastball and he also has a solid slider, and an OK changeup. He could battle Bergesen in the future for a back-of-the-rotation spot with the loser moving to the bullpen.

Rookie Jason Berken has made 14 starts with the Orioles but has an ERA of 6.72 (FIP of 5.01). He’s allowed 89 hits in 69.2 innings of work, while also posting rates of 3.49 BB/9 and 5.04 K/9. His ground-ball rate is just 38.1% and his line-drive rate is 24.2%. Berken is getting hit hard despite a four-pitch mix that includes a fastball that averages 92 mph. The 25-year-old pitcher is probably best suited to bullpen work, but he could become a valuable swing pitcher.

The Orioles club still has two pitchers remaining in triple-A and double-A who should both settle into the MLB rotation within the next year: Jake Arrieta and Brandon Erbe. Matusz jumped over Arrieta after the latter pitcher hit a three-start rough patch in triple-A from July 24-Aug. 3. The right-hander dominated high-A and double-A, but he’s struggled a bit with consistency in triple-A. Regardless, the 23-year-old pitcher has all the potential necessary to be a very good No. 3 starter in the Majors, including low-to-mid-90s fastball, slider, curve and changeup.

Erbe has gotten lost in the shuffle a bit because of a rough 2007 at high-A ball (although he was just 19 years of age at the time). Now 21, the right-hander has been slowed by some injuries this season but he’s been dominant as of late. In his last start against the Jays’ double-A affiliate, he took a no-hitter into the ninth inning. On the season, he has allowed 29 hits in 47.2 innings of work. He also has a walk rate of 3.97 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.55 K/9. Both those rates will surely improve once he gains better command of his pitches, which include a low-to-mid-90s fastball, a plus slider and an OK changeup. Right-handed batters are hitting just .138 against him.

If all goes well, the Orioles rotation could eventually stack up like this:
1. Chris Tillman, RHP, age 21
2. Brian Matusz, LHP, 22
3. Brandon Erbe, RHP, 21
4. Jake Arrieta, RHP, 23
5. Brad Bergesen, RHP, 23

6. David Hernandez, RHP, 24
7. Jason Berken, RHP, 25

For fantasy baseball managers, the Baltimore Orioles’ pitching depth offers some very intriguing options in keeper leagues. For Orioles fans, the above depth chart is exciting news after enduring a very ugly April.

Here is the latest update to Week 19 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

LAD – Wolf
LAD – Kuroda
OAK – G. Gonzalez
SD – Richard
OAK – Cahill
BOS – Tazawa
TEX – Nippert

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

COL – Cook
OAK – Braden
BOS – Smoltz
LAD – Schmidt
SD – Gaudin
TEX – Padilla
SEA – J. Vargas
STL – Boggs

Wolf had a streak of seven consecutive Quality Starts snapped in his last outing, when he allowed four runs in seven innings pitched. Over those last eight games, Wolf has a 3.38 ERA with a 3-to-1 SO/BB ratio and a 1.204 WHIP but he has just a 2-3 record. Wolf has two road starts this week, where he has an ERA a full run lower than he does at Chavez Ravine. His problem in home games is the gopher ball. Wolf has allowed 12 HR in 76 IP at home compared to 6 HR in 71 IP on the road.

Kuroda won his first game in a month his last time out. In his last three outings, Kuroda has 21 Ks in 18 IP. He has been a little unlucky this year with a 62.5 percent strand rate. Kuroda’s FIP checks in at 3.36 compared to a 4.44 ERA.

Gonzalez gave up 11 runs in 2.2 innings on July 20th. In three outings since then he is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA and a 1.071 WHIP. Included in those last three games were matchups in New York and Boston.

Richard has a 3.95 BB/9 ratio for the season. But in his last nine starts he has allowed 17 BB in 45.1 innings. Pitch Type Values shows Richard’s fastball being a good pitch but that he gets in trouble with his slider and his cutter.

Cahill has allowed a HR in nine consecutive starts. He has given up 15 homers in that stretch, including two in each of his last two outings. His HR/FB ratio of 16.6 is the fourth highest mark among pitchers who qualify.

Tazawa made his major league debut and took the loss in the 15-inning game last Friday against the Red Sox. Tazawa was 9-5 in Double-A and 0-2 in Triple-A this year, albeit with a 2.38 ERA and a 0.706 WHIP in those two contests.

Nippert has bounced back-and-forth between the bullpen and the rotation this year for the Rangers. In his last outing, a start, he allowed just one hit in five innings and now seems poised for an extended trial as a starter. Nippert averages nearly 93 miles per hour with his fastball and he also throws a change-up and an occasional curve.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 19.

Nick Blackburn – Earlier this season, I highlighted Blackburn as a guy to sit due to his two road starts. Well, this week he has two home games. In the Metrodome, Blackburn is 5-0 with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.297 WHIP. Make sure he is active for his home games versus Kansas City and Cleveland.

Jorge de la Rosa – He got hammered in his last start in Philadelphia, where he gave up three HR in five innings. But de la Rosa was on fire prior to that, with Quality Starts in his previous six games. Another thing in de la Rosa’s favor this week is that he takes his 8.83 K/9 rate up against two teams in the top half of the league in strikeouts, including the Marlins, who lead the NL with 852 whiffs.

Kyle Lohse – Yes, it is hard to recommend a pitcher who just got roughed up by the Mets but that start was on the road. This week Lohse has two games in Busch Stadium, where he has a 2.98 ERA, a 1.059 WHIP and all four of his wins this season.

Marc Rzepczynski – Usually I hate those nicknames where you take a player’s first initial and then tag on the first few letters of his last name. But in Rzepczynski I think I am willing to make an exception. But keep M-Rzep on the bench this week. Yes, the ERA, K and WHIP all look good so far in his first six starts in the majors. But with road games this week at New York and at Tampa Bay, it is probably wise to get someone else in the lineup this week.

Jonathan Sanchez – Since returning to the rotation the second week of July following two outings in the bullpen, Sanchez has a 3-1 record and a 2.76 ERA in five games. He still has some gopher ball tendencies, but he faces the Dodgers (12th in NL in HR) and Mets (last in NL) this week, two teams not known for their power. Make sure he is active this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 17 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Harden, Jackson, Chamberlain, Floyd, Garza, Danks, Happ, Volstad, Cook, Oswalt, Cueto, Pelfrey, Penny, Porcello, Lannan, Davis, Braden, Smoltz, Schmidt, Ohlendorf, Looper, Guthrie, Gaudin, Padilla, VandenHurk, Gorzelanny, Moehler, French, Laffey, Mitre, O’Sullivan, J. Vargas, Davies, Lehr, Boggs.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 17 and how they did.

Garland – Advised to start. W, 3.00 ERA, 4 Ks, 0.93 WHIP (2 starts)
Hunter – Advised to start. W, 3.75 ERA, 11 Ks, 1.42 WHIP (2)
Marquis – Advised to start. 3.46 ERA, 7 Ks, 1.08 WHIP (2)
Saunders – Advised to sit. W, 6.55 ERA, 4 Ks, 2.00 WHIP (2)
Wolf – Advised to start. 3.75 ERA, 11 Ks, 1.67 WHIP (2)

Tuesday night in Detroit offered two different pitchers on two teams on opposite ends of the success cycle. It was an intriguing matchup for baseball fans and a game that had relevancy for fantasy owners, too.

The Tigers, who came into the contest with a two-game lead over the White Sox in the AL Central, started Jarrod Washburn, a trade deadline acquisition from the Mariners. Washburn, a veteran lefty, is enjoying one of the finest seasons of his career. His 2.64 ERA was the lowest mark of his 12-year career, one that he posted thanks to a career-best 1.068 WHIP.

The Orioles, languishing in last place and under .500 for the 12th consecutive season since cutting ties with Davey Johnson, started Brian Matusz, the team’s first-round draft pick in 2008, who was making his major league debut. While Washburn has one of the slowest average fastball velocities in the majors, Matusz came in with a reputation as a fireballer, a pitcher capable of reaching the mid-90s with his fastball.

Both pitchers seemed to be the right choice for their clubs. Detroit, in the thick of a pennant race, needed a reliable veteran to come in and help stabilize its pitching staff. Baltimore, going nowhere in the AL East, needed to find out about its hot-shot youngster, one who dominated two levels of the minors this season.

But should fantasy owners treat these pitchers the same way that major league clubs did? Should the contender always go with Washburn, while the teams bringing up the rear just focus on the upside potential of the rookie?

A look at the raw stats of Washburn would intrigue any fantasy owner. He came into Tuesday with 8 W, 2.64 ERA, 1.068 WHIP and 79 Ks. But a deeper look into his numbers revealed a pitcher exceeding expectations. Washburn had a .249 BABIP and a 79.5 percent strand rate while with the Mariners. His FIP checked in at 3.76, more than a run higher than his ERA and his xFIP would have been even worse due to his below average HR/FB rate.

To make matters worse, Washburn was moving from a pitcher’s park in Safeco Field to a more hitter-friendly home stadium in Comerica Park. When it first opened, Comerica had a reputation as a good pitcher’s park. However in recent years it has played differently. Baseball-Reference.com gave it a a multi-year factor of 102 (97 for Safeco) and StatCorner gave it a 97.3 for runs (95.1 for Safeco).

Lifetime, Washburn had a 3.91 ERA at Safeco (66 starts) compared to a 5.33 ERA (eight starts) at Comerica. This year was no different, as Washburn was 5- 2 with a 2.31 ERA in Safeco. His numbers in Detroit can be dismissed somewhat as a sample size issue but there is no question that his numbers in Seattle were slightly better than his career ERA of 4.04. In his eight seasons with the Angels, Washburn had an overall ERA of 3.93 but his lifetime ERA in Anaheim is 4.60, suggesting that Washburn was not able to simply take advantage of his home park.

The first outing for our two pitchers with their new clubs was not a good omen for Washburn owners. He allowed six runs in 5.1 innings, including two homers, in his first home start for the Tigers. Meanwhile, Matusz was everything for which owners could have hoped. He struck out five batters in five innings, allowed just one run and picked up the win.

PitchFX showed that Matusz averaged 92.07 with his four-seam fastball and had a max velocity of 93.8 on his 52 offerings. He threw 16 change-ups, with an average speed of almost 10 miles per hour slower than his fastball. Matusz also displayed a slider, curve and two-seam fastball. And most impressively, Matsuz threw strikes with each of his pitches, with only 34 balls in 99 pitches. All five of his pitches Matusz had a strike percentage of 50 percent or greater.

It is always dangerous to read too much into one outing. But Tuesday night fantasy owners saw just what a look at the scouting reports and numbers said about each of these pitchers. The scouting reports said Matusz could bring the heat and he did exactly that. And a look at Washburn’s numbers showed a pitcher succeeding to a large degree by luck (BABIP, LOB%) and circumstances (Safeco).

While the Tigers acquired Washburn for their pennant drive, fantasy owners contending for a money spot in their league should do the exact opposite. And while it is a risky move to have a rookie pitcher in your rotation in August and September, contenders might want to consider starting Matusz on a matchup basis as they drive towards a title.

Here is the latest update to Week 18 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

BOS – Lester
MIL – Gallardo
DET – Washburn
NYY – Pettitte
STL – Pineiro
BAL – Matusz
CLE – Huff

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

NYY – Chamberlain
BOS – Penny
TEX – Feldman
BAL – Bergesen
DET – French
CLE – Laffey

Lester had a string of six straight Quality Starts snapped in his last outing July 30th versus the A’s, when he gave up 4 ER in 5.2 IP in a no-decision. He has two road starts this week with games at Tampa and at New York. So far in 2009 Lester’s ERA is 4.52 in road games, compared to 3.33 in Fenway Park.

Gallardo has reeled off back-to-back wins after being saddled with a loss in three straight appearances. In his last outing, Gallardo fanned 11 batters and allowed just one walk in seven innings versus the Nationals. The solo walk was an encouraging sign for Gallardo, who has allowed a career-high 4.27 BB/9 this season.

Washburn makes his first starts for his new team this week and fantasy owners are eager to find out if his good fortune this season follows him to Detroit. Washburn has a .249 BABIP and a 79.5 percent strand rate this season. His FIP checks in at 3.76, more than a run higher than his 2.64 ERA. Washburn has a lifetime 5.33 ERA in Comerica Park, where he will make both starts this week.

Pettitte seeks to snap a three-game losing streak this week. The Yankees lefthander has not won since July 1st, a stretch that covers five games. In that span he has a 5.34 ERA. After starting the season with a 5-1 record, Pettitte has a 3-5 mark with a 4.92 ERA over his past 11 starts and has allowed eight HRs in 64 IP.

Pineiro picked up four losses in June despite a 2.65 ERA for the month. So in July he posted a 1.22 ERA and went 3-0 in five starts. Pineiro is continuing to serve up grounders, as 61 percent of his batted balls are beat into the ground. His GB/FB ratio of 2.70 easily leads the majors and he has the lowest HR/FB mark (3.0%) of all qualified pitchers.

Matusz is scheduled to make his major league debut this week subbing for the injured Bergesen. The 6’5 LHP was a combined 11-2 this season between two levels, including 7-0 with a 1.55 ERA at Double-A Bowie. The fourth overall pick in the 2008 Draft, Matusz has a fastball that reaches the mid-90s and he fanned 120 batters in 112 innings in the minors.

Huff has a 6.39 ERA but has received an average run support of 6.05 runs per game, which explains how he sits at 5-5 after 14 games. But with a 1.58 WHIP and a K/9 ratio of 4.62 Huff is not a good fantasy pitcher regardless of how much run support he receives.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 18

Scott Baker – Home runs have been the downfall of Baker this season. In his first 10 games of the season, Baker allowed 15 HR in 59.2 IP. But since then, Baker has permitted just 5 HR in his last 50.2 innings. He is 5-1 in that stretch with a 3.86 ERA. Make sure Baker is active for his two road starts this week. Away from the Metrodome, Baker’s ERA is a full run lower than his home mark.

Mat Latos – Despite some trouble with the gopher ball (4 HR in 16.2 IP), Latos has been very impressive in his first three starts. He has a 3.25 K/BB ratio and is averaging 7.02 K/9. Latos’ fastball averages 94.7 and he relies upon it heavily, throwing it over 72 percent of the time. Get him on your roster and active for his home starts this week against the Braves and Mets.

Charlie Morton – Six of his first eight starts for the Pirates have come on the road. This week the people of Pittsburgh will get to see their recent acquisition live two times. In his first two appearances at PNC, Morton has allowed just three runs in 14 IP. Morton has been solid overall for the Pirates, posting a FIP nearly identical to his ERA and averaging 6.52 K/9. Most likely still available on the waiver wire in your league, Morton is a potential keeper for the rest of the season and a nice play for his two home starts this week.

Brad Penny – In his last seven outings, Penny is 1-3 with a 5.31 ERA. He is not getting better with regular work and depending on what the Red Sox do later today, with the trade deadline looming, his rotation spot could disappear, too. So, do not expect two starts from Penny and if he does go twice, do not expect performances that will help your fantasy team.

Randy Wells – His last two full seasons in Triple-A, Wells allowed BABIPs of .345 and .325 with identical 69.5 percent strand rates each year. So, this year in the majors he has a .278 BABIP and an 80.6 percent strand rate. This seems like as good a week as any for the luck to run out, with road starts at the Great American Ball Park and at Coors Field. Put him on the bench.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 18 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

J. Santana, Verlander, Greinke, Cain, J. Vazquez, Haren, J. Johnson, Lackey, Kershaw, Chamberlain, Duke, Kazmir, Harang, Kuroda, Feldman, B. Anderson, Hochevar, Bergesen, Parra, Moyer, Kawakami, Tillman, Hammel, Contreras, Rowland-Smith, Hampton, Stuaffer, G. Gonzalez, French, Holland, Laffey, Petit, Mock, Martin

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 16 and how they did.

Blackburn – Advised to sit. 13.50 ERA, 0 K (!), 2.31 WHIP (2 starts)
Cecil – Advised to start. W, 0.64 ERA, 16 Ks, 1.29 WHIP (2)
Gaudin – Advised to start. 2.77 ERA, 7 Ks, 1.38 WHIP (2)
Lohse – Advised to sit. 4.91 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.27 WHIP (2)
E. Santana – Advised to start. W, 10.24 ERA, 11 Ks, 1.76 WHIP (2)

Fantasy owners are always scouring the waiver wire looking for pitchers for the back of their staff. One pitcher gaining a lot of buzz for his performance so far is Rangers RHP Tommy Hunter. In six starts with Texas this season, Hunter is 3-1 with a 2.00 ERA. He has gone at least five innings in each start this year and has yet to allow more than three runs in a game.

Hunter is not overpowering; he tops out in the low 90s with his fastball and averages 89.1 with his heater. But he still manages to get strikeouts with the pitch – he got two Ks on fastballs in his last outing – because of his varied repertoire. Hunter also has a curve ball and a change-up. And depending on which source you prefer, he also throws either a slider or a cutter. FanGraphs does not show him throwing a slider this year but has him throwing a cutter nearly 24 percent of the time. Dan Brooks’ wonderful PitchFX site shows Hunter striking out three in his last outing versus Detroit with a slider and throwing 26 of them overall, with no cutters.

It all seems very encouraging for Hunter but from a fantasy perspective owners should not be in a rush to go out and pick him up. He is thriving now thanks to the 1-2 combo of a low BABIP (.251) and a high strand rate (90%). Hunter checks in with a 1.75 K/BB ratio (which would rank in the lower third of MLB pitchers if he had enough innings to qualify) and his HR/FB rate of 6.5 percent is below average.

When we see numbers like that, the most likely explanation is an unsustainable hot start. Hunter’s FIP is 3.97 and the low HR rate indicates his xFIP would be even worse. We know with a large enough sample size that regression will push Hunter’s numbers worse in these categories. We just do not know when it will actually happen. With just two months left in the season, it is even possible that regression will not hit until 2010.

Hunter would not be the worst option for fantasy owners to pick up from the waiver wire. But at the same time one should acquire him with the knowledge that he is much more likely to post an ERA twice as high than the one he has recorded so far this season.

Fans and analysts did not consider Blue Jays pitcher Brett Cecil as one of the elite rookie pitchers coming into the season but he did have some buzz surrounding him. He made Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects List (#72) while also earning a B+ grade from prospect maven John Sickels.

Cecil started off 2009 in the minors but was promoted in early May. He made four consecutive starts for Toronto and pitched well in three of them before the Red Sox hammered him on May 20th. Two days later the Blue Jays optioned him to the minors, where Cecil spent the next month.

Upon his return to the majors, Cecil tossed a Quality Start against the Nationals but then posted two poor outings around a relief appearance. Prior to the All-Star break, it looked like 2009 was shaping up to be nothing more than a learning season for the rookie from Maryland.

But in his last three outings, Cecil is 2-0 with a 0.45 ERA and 21 strikeouts in 20 innings. What, if anything has changed for Cecil in his last three outings? Let us take a look at his PitchFX numbers to see if we can notice any trends.

Fastball

Slider

Cecil simply was lacking velocity on both his fastball and his slider in his July 5th outing, one of three poor outings this year for him. So far this season, Cecil has pitched in 11 games, making 10 starts. He has hurled seven Quality Starts but has been hit hard the other three starts, which has made his overall numbers seem mediocre.

After getting lit up for four runs in the first inning of his start against the Reds on June 25th, the Blue Jays moved Cecil to the bullpen. He might still be there, except for Scott Richmond’s shoulder injury. That led to a return to the rotation for Cecil and his poor outing on July 5th versus the Yankees.

According to the Blue Jays’ official site, the team activated Richmond from the DL Tuesday night. Cecil will remain in the rotation, as Toronto sent Dirk Hayhurst to Triple-A to make room on the roster, while Brian Tallet moved to the bullpen to create a rotation spot for Richmond.

Cecil’s last three outings have earned him a longer look in the Blue Jays’ rotation and he is someone for fantasy owners to take a flier on, as he is available in 72 percent of CBS Sports leagues and over 98 percent of ESPN leagues.