The Houston Astros have reportedly signed free agent RHP Brett Myers to a one-year, $5 million deal with an option for the 2011 season.

Myers, 29, missed a large portion of the 2009 season following right hip surgery to repair a torn labrum in late May. He returned to the majors in early September as a reliever. However, a right shoulder strain shelved him for a few more weeks late in the year.

Philly’s first-round pick in the 1999 amateur draft, Myers was a mainstay in the starting rotation from mid-2002 through 2006. Despite turning in a 3.4 WAR season in 2005 and a 3.5 WAR campaign in 2006, the Phillies shifted Myers to the bullpen in 2007. He moved back to the starting five in 2008, and opened 2009 as a starter prior to the hip injury.

Myers has a wide gap between his career ERA (4.40) and his career Expected Fielding Independent ERA (3.90). Over the past three seasons, the dichotomy is even greater: a 4.56 ERA, and a 3.79 xFIP.

In the majors, Myers has struck out 7.5 batters per nine frames and walked 3.14 per nine innings. The wild divergence between his actual ERA and his xFIP can be explained by Brett’s homer-happy ways: he has surrendered 1.35 round-trippers per nine innings, despite generating more ground balls than the average pitcher (his GB% is 47.3). In general, home run per fly ball rates tend to stick around 10 to 12 percent. However, Myers’ HR/FB rate in nearly 1,200 innings is 15.5 percent.

Making 10 starts and eight relief appearances in 2009, Myers posted rates of 6.37 K/9 and 2.93 BB/9. He served up a jaw-dropping 18 dingers in just 70.2 innings pitched (2.29 HR/9). Again, his ERA (4.84) and xFIP (4.32) were far apart, as his HR/fly ball rate was stratospheric 23.4 percent.

In recent years, Myers has relied on his fastball less often. He chucked the pitch between 56 and 63 percent of the time between 2002 to 2005, but has since gone to his heater less than 50 percent. His fastball has been battered for a -0.77 run value per 100 pitches in the majors.

That fastball is pretty straight, tailing in on righty batters just four inches compared to a pitch thrown without spin (six inch MLB average for right-handed pitchers). As Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X Tool shows, that true fastball hasn’t garnered many swings and misses over the past two seasons. Myers’ whiff rate with his fastball since 2008 is four percent, while the MLB average is about six percent.

Myers’ bread and butter is his breaking stuff: an average mid-80’s slider (+0.03 runs/100) and a plus high-70’s curveball (+1.48) that drops off the table. A seldom-used changeup (-0.78) hasn’t been very effective.

Though we’re dealing with a small sample, Myers was more hittable in 2009 than in years past. His overall contact rate was 84.4 percent, compared to a career 80.3 percent average (the MLB average is 80-81 percent). His swinging strike rate was 6.5 percent, well below his career norm.

Moving from Citizens Bank Park to Minute Maid, Myers goes from a venue that increased home run production by 14 percent compared to a neutral park from 2007-2009 to one that inflated homers by eight percent over the past three seasons. Overall, CPB has boosted run scoring by three percent, while Minute Maid has decreased runs by four percent.

CHONE projects Myers to post a 4.79 ERA in 2010, with 7.57 K/9, 3.07 BB/9, and 1.5 HR/9 in 126 innings pitched. He’s worth a late-round flyer, but his uncertain health status and gopher-ball problems make Myers hard to recommend strongly.

Myers’ addition likely means that Bud Norris, Felipe Paulino and Brian Moehler will compete for two rotation spots.

Norris’ control has never been a strong suit, but his low-to-mid-90’s gas and hard slider have missed plenty of lumber. Twenty-five in March, Norris had a 4.38 xFIP, 8.73 K/9 and 4.04 BB/9 in 55.2 IP for the Astros last season.

Paulino’s ’09 results look horrifying (6.27 ERA), but as Carson Cistulli points out, Felipe’s peripherals were far more promising. He punched out 8.57 per nine innings and walked 3.41, also showcasing a mid-90’s fastball and a hard breaking ball. But a .368 BABIP and a 16.9 HR/FB% made him look like a punching bag. The 26 year-old’s xFIP in 97.2 frames was 4.10.

Moehler pitched better than his 5.47 ERA would indicate (4.67 xFIP), but fantasy types should be rooting for Norris and Paulino to win those last two spots.

Charlie Morton never lit up prospect lists nor was he once deemed an impact player in the Atlanta Braves minor league system. Last year he found himself traded away to the Pirates in the Nate McLouth deal and he made 18 starts in Pittsburgh. These 18 starts were encouraging and Morton figures to slot into the back end of the Pirates starting rotation this year. He will be 26-years-old this season and now it’s time for Morton to run with a consistent starting opportunity at the big league level.

It appears that Morton is ready for this opportunity. He steadily climbed through the Braves system and since 2008 he has mightily improved his once very shaky control. Morton overcame plaguing walk rates that consistently sat in the mid fours and a few seasons where he split or spent more time in the bull pen than in a starting role. He’s also displayed a good knack for keeping the ball on the ground. Morton’s sinking fastball has induced good ground ball rates (58% and a silly 63% in AAA during 08 and 09) in the upper minors and big leagues.

Morton’s recently harnessed his command in Triple-A where he posted a 3.28 BB/9 rate in 2008 and a 2.23 BB/9 in 2009. He’s also shown a strong tendency of preventing the home run. In 2008 he didn’t surrender a single home run in 79 Triple-A innings. His average home run rate per nine over eight minor league seasons in 0.5 and save for a brutal 2006 season (1.26 HR/9) he has never had a HR/9 rate above 0.5 in the minor leagues. Morton’s ground ball and home run prevention tendencies are quite appealing.

In 2008 Morton made his major league debut in Atlanta and it didn’t go so well. He was afforded 16 appearances (15 starts) and he was tarred and feathered for a 5.14 FIP in 75 innings. His improved control disappeared (4.94 BB/9) and for the first time in a long time he surrendered more home runs than usual (1.08 HR/9). His .304 BABIP was not out of line but his 60.7 LOB% figured to improve.

Morton was dispatched back to Triple-A to start 2009 and he made the most of the opportunity in 10 starts before the trade. He had a 2.94 FIP and he turned in his best walk rate (2.23). Then came the trade to Pittsburgh and this time around Morton prevented the home run in the majors like he had in the minors (0.65 HR/9) and exhibited passable control (3.71 BB/9) with a 5.75 strikeout per nine that could use more improvement. His BABIP and LOB% looked very normal in Pittsburgh. He had a 4.15 FIP and 4.55 ERA. But that ERA would stand at 3.66 if you subtract his abysmal one inning start in Chicago on August 14 where he surrendered ten earned runs.

Morton’s strong ground ball rates have translated to the big leagues as well. During his rough go round in Atlanta he still had a 50% ground ball rate and last year in Pittsburgh it sat at 49%. It appears that he’s got the ability to have an above-average ground ball rate and possesses an average to slightly above-average ceiling on controlling his pitches within the strike zone in the big leagues.

The sinking fastball Morton utilized in 2009 has strikingly similar movement and velocity to the fastball that fellow sinkerballer Mike Pelfrey used in 2009. Pelfrey’s ground ball rate was 51% last year and is 50% over his big league career and the similiar movement and velocity on their pitches is no coincidence. Their sinkers stay on the ground.

The Pirates had a solid defense in 2009 that helped their pitchers out. Their team UZR checked in at 30.1 but there was a lot of turnover on the field last year. Pitchers will miss the slick fielding Jack Wilson up the middle but Ronny Cedeno appears close to an average defender at shortstop (according to UZR but The Fans Scouting Report thinks he’s better) and Akinori Iwamura is slightly above average at second base. Pirates pitchers better be hoping last years nasty injury has no effect on his defense. Andy Laroche is a defensive asset at the hot corner and Andrew McCutchen will be a solid defender in center field this year with an improved Lastings Milledge in left. There are definitely some capable gloves that will be helping out Morton and Pirates pitchers in 2010.

The downsides with Morton are his lackluster strikeout rate and the troubles he has had with left handed batters at the big league level. Morton will be no top of the rotation starter by any means but his true strikeout skill may lie between the 5.75 K/9 in the majors and 7.65 and 8.20 K/9 rates he had in Triple-A over the past two seasons. Morton has been dinged for not having a big out pitch. Baseball America did rate his curveball as the best in the Braves system in 2005 and last year in Pittsburgh it had a nifty pitch value at 4.1 runs above average. This is an encouraging sign.

Morton’s platoon split thus far at the big league level is a concern. Last year lefties had a .923 OPS against him in the big leagues and a .939 OPS versus him in 2008 with Atlanta. Things check out nicely against right handers.

After sifting through Morton’s splits in the minor leagues (dating back to 2005) there was nothing alarming about his performances against lefties. His absence of a third pitch may be a big factor with his struggles against lefties at the big league level but it’s possible the numbers may even out as the sample (321 MLB at-bats) increases over time.

Morton’s sinking fastball, low home run rate, and improved control make for an intriguing package. He held his own in the big leagues last year and there’s reason for optimism in 2010 especially behind a solid defense. He’s been overlooked and if his numbers improve against lefties his value can only shoot up.

See how he fares at the start of the season and if you’re in need of a starting pitcher Morton could be your guy especially during a hot streak. He’ll likely be available in all formats and could become a helpful starter on your team that seemingly came out of nowhere.

While it’s difficult to find many glaring faults with a ball club that tallied 95 victories and outscored the opposition by 136 runs, the 2009 Boston Red Sox featured porous team defense.

Collectively, the Red Sox ranked 18th in the majors in UZR/150. Per 150 defensive games, Boston’s fielders were -2.4 runs below average. Some players turned in great years with the leather: RF J.D. Drew and 2B Dustin Pedroia were exceptional, and Kevin Youkilis really picked it at first base. However, a hip injury turned 3B Mike Lowell into a liability, LF Jason Bay was DH-worthy and Jacoby Ellsbury rated poorly as well.

Enter Mike Cameron and Adrian Beltre, two of the most skilled defenders in the game at their respective positions. It’s still unclear whether Cameron will play his customary center field, bumping Ellsbury to left, or if he’ll play left field himself. Either way, swapping in Cameron for Bay is a massive defensive upgrade. Ditto for bringing in Beltre to take over for Lowell at the hot corner.

Jeff Zimmerman of Beyond the Box Score released 2010 UZR projections in November. Jeff took four years of a player’s UZR totals, weighing them 5/4/3/2 and regressing to 125 games. He then applied a slight aging factor (more details here).

Here’s how the Red Sox project in 2010, with Cameron and Beltre in the fold. For comparison, I put Boston’s 2009 UZR/150 totals for each position in parentheses:

1B: Kevin Youkilis, projected +4 UZR/150 (+8.3 UZR/150 team total in 2009)
2B: Dustin Pedroia, projected +5 UZR/150 (+9.1 UZR/150 in ’09)
SS: Marco Scutaro, projected 0 UZR/150 (+3.1 UZR/150 in ’09)
3B: Adrian Beltre, projected +9 UZR/150 (-10.7 UZR/150 in ’09)
LF: Jacoby Ellsbury, projected +6 UZR/150 (-9.4 UZR/150 in ’09)
CF: Mike Cameron, projected +4 UZR/150 (-19.6 UZR/150 in ’09)
RF: J.D. Drew, projected +5 UZR/150 (+9.1 UZR/150 in ’09)

Youkilis, Pedroia and Drew figure to regress a bit, going from great to merely very good. Scutaro, another free agent import, is roughly average at shortstop. But look at those totals at third base, left field and center field. We’re talking gargantuan upgrades here.

Some might be surprised about Ellsbury’s projected total in left field, given his dreadful rating in CF last year. However, Ellsbury did rate as a well above-average fielder in 2008. Also, the average center fielder is about 10 runs better than the average corner outfielder, based on observations of how players perform at multiple positions.

For those of you wondering, Ellsbury projects as a -9 UZR/150 fielder in CF. Even if we say that Cameron would indeed be a +14 UZR/150 fielder in left (10 runs better than in center field), the Red Sox are better off with an Ellsbury LF/ Cameron CF alignment by about five runs per 150 defensive games.

What does this all mean for fantasy owners? Boston’s vastly improved fielding gives a boost in value to Red Sox pitchers. Plenty of Boston starters underperformed their Expected Fielding Independent ERAs in 2009, due in part to higher than expected batting averages on balls in play:

ERA-xFIP splits for 2009 Boston starters, minimum 50 IP

Lester’s fielders did him no favors in 2009. Beckett didn’t get burned too badly by a high BABIP- the difference between his ERA and xFIP stems from a higher-than-normal home run per fly ball rate (12.8 percent). Granted, those two (along with newcomer John Lackey) are going to be high on draft boards regardless. But it’s nice to know that they’ll be backed by quality glove men.

Penny’s no longer around, though you can see the dichotomy between his ERA and xFIP due to an inflated BABIP. Buchholz’s ERA-xFIP split is due to a sky-high HR/FB rate (15.7%), not a sky-high BABIP. Dice-K’s future is uncertain after a season mostly lost to shoulder problems, but maybe you’ll be more likely to take a flyer with Cameron and Beltre backing him up.

As a whole, Red Sox starting pitchers had a 4.63 ERA in 2009, but a 4.17 xFIP. The 0.46 run gap between Boston’s ERA and xFIP was the third-largest in the major leagues. A big reason for that split was a .324 BABIP for those starters. Some of that was probably poor luck, but a good portion of it was poor fielding. Luckily, Red Sox pitchers should have the benefit of much improved defense in 2010.

Right-hander Max Scherzer looked poised to team with Dan Haren for years to come, giving the Diamondbacks an elite one-two punch at the top of the rotation. However, after January’s three-team headliner between the Yankees, Tigers and D-Backs, Scherzer now heads to Detroit to miss scads of bats alongside Justin Verlander.

Taken out of Missouri with the 11th overall pick in the 2006 amateur draft, Scherzer didn’t sign on the dotted line right away. The 6-5 power pitcher had a good, not great junior season for the Tigers, missing a run of starts with biceps and shoulder tendinitis. Baseball America said that Scherzer “only flashed” his mid-to-upper 90’s fastball velocity, generally sitting at 91-92 MPH. Scouts also had concerns about his herky-jerky delivery, as well as his promising-but-inconsistent hard slider and changeup.

With Scherzer still seeking top-line cash, negotiations between Arizona and agent Scott Boras moved at a glacial pace. This was before baseball instituted a mid-August signing deadline in 2007-prior to ’07, teams retained the rights to a player up to one week prior to the next year’s draft. Scherzer kept sharp by pitching for the independent Fort Worth Cats. Eventually, Arizona ponied up $4.3 million in guaranteed money, with $1.5 million in incentives.

Max finally took a pro mound in 2007. He started his career in the High-A California League, scorching hitters for a 30/2 K/BB ratio and a 0.53 ERA in 17 IP and quickly earning a promotion to the Double-A Southern League. In 14 AA starts covering 73.2 frames, Scherzer struck out 9.3 batters per nine innings. His control left something to be desired (4.9 BB/9), but he posted a 3.46 FIP.

Following the ’07 season, Baseball America named Scherzer the fourth-best prospect in a loaded Arizona system (Carlos Gonzalez, Jarrod Parker and Brett Anderson ranked ahead of him). BA gushed over his fastball, which hit the “mid-90’s with sinking action at its best.” Scherzer’s upper-80’s slider also impressed, though it was inconsistent.

However, they also noted that “some scouts who saw Scherzer as a starter at midseason wondered what the fuss was about.” His heater sat in the low-90’s, and “his overall stuff, command, feel and delivery all drew questions.” A dominant showing in relief in the Arizona Fall League (18 K in 12.2 IP) seemed to reinforce the concept that Scherzer could end up as a closer instead of a starter.

Scherzer began the 2008 season starting at Triple-A Tucson of the Pacific Coast League, but he was summoned to the majors in late April. He oscillated between the rotation and the ‘pen before being sent back to AAA in mid-June. Unfortunately, he came down with a case of shoulder inflammation, missing a month of the season. After a few relief appearances with the Sidewinders, Scherzer transitioned back to the minor league rotation in late July. Recalled to Arizona in late August, Max had a pair of relief stints and then spent September in the major league rotation. Whew-got all that?

In AAA, Scherzer simply outclassed the competition. He whiffed 13.4 batters per nine with 3.7 BB/9. Max’s FIP was a microscopic 2.07 in 53 innings. When batters weren’t swinging and missing wildly, they were chopping the ball into the ground (51.7 GB%).

With the Diamondbacks, Scherzer made seven starts and nine relief appearances in 56 IP. Overall, he displayed an impressive combo of power (10.61 K/9) and control (3.38 BB/9). Scherzer’s xFIP was just 3.19.

His stuff was as wicked as advertised. Scherzer sat at 94 MPH with his fastball, tossing the pitch about 73 percent of the time. That gas was supplemented by a mid-80’s slider (thrown 17 percent) and changeup (10 percent). Scherzer’s fastball had a +0.63 run value per 100 pitches, and his slider bucked knees for a +3.79 mark. The changeup lagged behind, though the sample size was small (-3.29). Scherzer pounded the strike zone, placing 54.7 percent of his pitches over the plate (51.1% MLB average in ’08), and his 72.9% contact rate was well below the 80.8% big league average.

In 2009, Scherzer began the year on the DL with shoulder fatigue and tightness. Max became a full-time starter after his activation in mid-April, taking the mound 30 times and throwing 170.1 innings. The 25 year-old was extremely hard to hit, punching out 9.19 batters per nine innings. His 76.9% contact rate was 14-lowest among starters, and his 10.4 swinging strike rate placed 16th among starters (7.8% average for SP).

Scherzer’s control was solid as well. He issued a modest 3.33 BB/9, while getting ahead of batters with a 61.3 first-pitch strike percentage (58% MLB average). With a 3.88 xFIP, Scherzer placed in the top 20 among NL starters.

Max’s fastball didn’t lose much zip while making all of his appearances as a starter, sitting at 93.6 MPH. He still called on the pitch heavily: Scherzer’s 71% fastball usage was seventh-highest among starters. That heater was slightly below average on a per-pitch basis (-0.11 runs/100). Scherzer’s 85 MPH slider (thrown 12 percent) posted a +0.58 runs/100 value, while his changeup checked in at -0.61.

The high-octane righty subdued same-handed batters, holding right-handed hitters to a 92 sOPS+ (he performed eight percent better than the league average vs. RHB). Lefties fared better, with a 103 sOPS+.

In moving from Chase Field to Comerica Park, Scherzer goes from a hitter’s paradise to a park that still favors offense, though not to the same extent. According to the 2010 Bill James Handbook, Chase inflated run-scoring by 15 percent compared to a neutral ball park from 2007-2009. Over that same time period, Comerica boosted runs by five percent.

Overall, Scherzer’s first year as a permanent starter was extremely promising. Many have wondered why the Diamondbacks shipped him out of town, preferring two years of team control over Edwin Jackson and six years of Ian Kennedy over five years of Scherzer and six years of Daniel Schlereth.

The most likely reason is that Arizona doubts Scherzer’s long-term health and viability as a starting pitcher. To recap his extensive injury history since 2006: shoulder and biceps tendinitis in ’06, shoulder inflammation in 2008, shoulder fatigue and tightness in 2009. His health certainly bears watching, especially considering that Scherzer’s innings total increased from 109 in 2008 to 175 in 2009 (major league innings plus one rehab start).

There’s little doubt that Scherzer has the talent to become one of the top 20-30 starters in the majors. Few pitchers combine his ability to miss bats with quality control. The question is: can he hold up physically?

Injury information taken from the Fantasy Pitch F/X DL Tool

A former 38th-round draft pick lost briefly as a Rule V selection, right-hander Randy Wells never enjoyed elite prospect status. Yet, the 1,143rd player taken in the 2002 draft managed a 3 WAR season as a rookie starter with the Chicago Cubs in 2009. Wells was about as valuable as Randy Wolf and Roy Oswalt. Where did this guy come from, and what should we expect going forward?

The 6-3, 230 pound Wells played his college ball at Southwestern Illinois Community College. He was a catcher back then, and was drafted as a backstop. Wells’ career behind the dish was short-lived, however, as he “hit” to the tune of a .399 OPS in limited playing time between 2002 and 2003. Despite never pitching in high school or in college, Wells tried his hand at throwing heat, instead of whiffing at it.

He transitioned to the mound full-time in 2004, tossing 107.2 IP (15 starts, 21 ‘pen appearances) in the Low-A Midwest League. Wells’ 4.43 ERA looked lukewarm, but he did post rates of 10.1 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9. In 2005, he pitched mostly in the High-A Florida State League, with a late-season cameo in the AA Southern League. In 108 combined innings (10 starts, 37 relief stints), Wells whiffed 9.2 hitters per nine frames, with few free passes to boot (2.4 BB/9). His ERA dipped to 2.83, and his FIP was 2.89.

Perhaps encouraged by Wells’ smooth transition, the Cubs made him a full-time starting pitcher in 2006. Wells began the season back in AA, shredding hitters for 7.8 K/9, 1.88 BB/9 and a 2.65 FIP in 62.1 innings. While his ERA was nearly five after a promotion to AAA Iowa, Wells still held his own with 7.7 K/9, 3 BB/9 and a 3.85 FIP in 69 innings pitched. A .371 BABIP was to blame for the bloated ERA.

Wells still wasn’t considered much of a prospect, failing to crack Baseball America’s top 30 Cubs prospects at any point. Returning to Iowa in 2007, he was pushed back to the bullpen for the most part (just nine starts in 39 games). He compiled a mediocre 4.60 ERA, though his peripherals (9.57 K/9, 3.73 BB/9, 4.00 FIP) were a little more encouraging.

Following that tepid ’07 season, the Cubs chose to keep Wells off the club’s 40-man roster, leaving him unprotected in the upcoming Rule V draft. Chicago liked Wells’ high-80’s to low-90’s sinker, but felt his slider and changeup lagged behind. The Toronto Blue Jays snatched him with the 11th pick, hoping to get some cheap middle-inning relief. While Wells did break camp with the Jays to begin 2008, he made just one appearance before being offered back to the Cubs in mid-April.

While he tossed a few late-season innings in the big leagues, Wells spent another summer in the Pacific Coast League. Pitching mostly in the rotation this time (19 starts in 27 games), Wells had a 4.01 FIP in 118.2 IP. He struck out 7.74 per nine, while displaying better control with 2.58 BB/9.

In 2009, Wells looked destined to spend yet another year in the cornfields. He had a 21/7 K/BB ratio and a 2.89 FIP in his first five starts with the I-Cubs, but he got the big league call in early May when Carlos Zambrano (pulled hamstring) went on the DL after doing his best Ichiro impression down the first base line.

Wells never relinquished his rotation spot, posting a 3.05 ERA in 165.1 innings with the Cubs and finishing 6th in Rookie of the Year voting. What’s in store for Wells in 2010? Is he a good fantasy option?

While Wells was a decent starter in 2009, that very low ERA might lead to some unrealistic expectations heading into next season. He struck out 5.66 batters per nine innings, while issuing 2.5 BB/9. Those aren’t bad rates, and when coupled with slight groundball tendencies (47.9 GB%), Wells was an above-average starter.

However, both his rate of stranding runners and home runs allowed per fly ball suggest that his 2010 ERA is more likely to be in the low-fours. Wells had a 76 left on base percentage, well above the 70-72% average for starters. Perhaps he pitches better from the stretch than most, but that number will probably fall somewhat next year. Also, his HR/FB% was rather low, at eight percent (10-12% average). Wells’ Expected Fielding Independent ERA (xFIP) was 4.24. Useful, but not ace-worthy by any means.

Wells went after batters with four offerings: An 89-90 MPH four-seam fastball, a slightly slower two-seamer with more tailing and sinking action, a low-to-mid-80’s slider and a low-80’s changeup.

Keep in mind that Wells’ pitch run values are look better than they should, due to the aforementioned high strand rate and low HR/FB rate. But his four-seamer and two-seam fastballs checked in at +0.04 runs per 100 tosses, with his slider gobbling up batters with +2.88 runs/100. His changeup wasn’t anything special (-0.67). Wells’ breaking pitch helped him generate a 27.8 outside-swing percentage (25% MLB average). He also did a nice job of getting ahead in the count, with a 61.4 first-pitch strike percentage (58% MLB average).

Attacking righty hitters with that slider, Wells held same-handed batters to a 60 sOPS+ (40 percent better than the league average). Lefties got a bunch of changeups, though, and hit him for a 108 sOPS+ (eight percent worse than the league average).

Wells is worth drafting in NL-only leagues and perhaps in deep mixed leagues, but expecting a repeat of his 2009 season would be quixotic. The 27 year-old is no top-of-the-line arm, but he looks like a solid mid-rotation option. Not bad for a guy who didn’t toss a pitch in high school or college.

Along with RHP Neftali Feliz, lefty Derek Holland is supposed to anchor the Texas Rangers pitching staff for years to come.

The lanky, 6-2 Holland was taken in the 25th round of the 2006 draft as a product of the now defunct draft-and-follow system. Holland impressed Rangers brass at Wallace State Community College, earning a $200,000 signing bonus.

He made his pro debut in 2007, and immediately began tearing minor league hitters to shreds. Holland whiffed 11.1 batters per nine innings in 67 frames in the Short-Season Northwest League, issuing 2.8 BB/9 and posting a 3.29 FIP.

While Holland didn’t crack Baseball America’s list of Texas’ top 30 prospects before the 2008 season, he caught everyone’s attention by rocketing from Low-A to AA that year. In 150.2 combined IP, Holland punched out 9.4 batters per nine frames, walking just 2.4 per nine with a 2.64 FIP.

The scouting reports were every bit as promising as the stats. BA ranked Holland as the second-best talent in a deep Rangers farm system prior to 2009. They noted a gradual increase in velocity for the southpaw. He started the season sitting 89-93 MPH, but he was popping the radar gun in the mid-90’s during the regular season and touching the upper-90’s during the AA Texas League playoffs. Holland also had an above-average low-80’s changeup, a promising, if inconsistent, low-80’s slider and a curveball.

Holland was one the fast track for sure, but he was surprisingly in Texas by April of 2009 after just one start at the AAA level. He ended up tossing 138.1 innings for the Rangers, making 21 starts and 12 relief appearances.

At first blush, the results suggest that Holland shouldn’t have been anywhere near a major league mound. After all, his ERA was a macabre 6.12, and he was blasted for nearly 1.7 home runs per nine innings pitched. However, beneath that gory ERA, Holland showed a lot of promise in 2009.

He struck out 6.96 hitters per nine frames, while issuing a solid 3.06 BB/9. Unfortunately, Holland suffered from a .321 batting average on balls in play. He did give up his fair share of fly balls, posting a 41.5 GB% that was a few ticks below the 43-44% major league average. But even with fly ball tendencies, Holland’s homer rate was too high. His home run per fly ball rate was 14.9 percent. That was the fourth-highest rate among pitchers with at least 130 innings pitched. Expect that figure to regress more toward the 10-12% average in 2010.

Overall, Holland’s Expected Fielding Independent ERA (xFIP) was 4.38. The difference between his ERA and xFIP was among the largest in the majors in 2009.

Holland featured a four-pitch repertoire. He used his 92-93 MPH fastball often, tossing the pitch 70 percent of the time. Baseball America said that Holland’s “slightly across-the-body delivery and excellent extension give his fastball deception and life.” His Pitch F/X numbers bear that out, as Derek’s fastball tailed in toward lefty batters 8.8 inches more than a pitch thrown without spin (6.4 average for LHP). The precocious lefty supplemented his heat with 82 MPH sliders (thrown 12 percent), 84 MPH changeups (11 percent) and mid-70’s curveballs (7 percent).

Throwing his fastball with great frequency, Holland posted an 82% contact rate (80.5% MLB average). His percentage of contact within the zone was 89.6% (87.8% MLB average). Holland’s 7.4 swinging strike percentage was a little below the 7.8% average for starters.

When Holland gets more comfortable implementing his breaking stuff and changeup, it’s reasonable to expect those contacts rates to drop (fastballs have the highest contact of any pitch). His slider, in particular, showed promise with a high whiff rate. More sliders, curves and changeups could mean more free passes, but also more strikeouts.

As a 22 year-old with minimal experience past A-Ball, Holland managed to hold his own in the majors in most respects. The usual injury caveats with a young pitcher apply. But Holland has high-caliber stuff and a superb minor league track record, making him a nice sleeper pick for those willing to look past that ugly ERA.

Cardinals left hander Jaime Garcia almost opted for professional baseball in his native country of Mexico in 2005. But area scout Joe Almaraz convinced Garcia to sign with the St. Louis as a 22nd-round pick. Almaraz is quite the persuader as he also convinced the Orioles to draft Garcia in round 30 a year prior but they did not sign him. Almaraz left Baltimore after 2004 to scout with the Cardinals and he didn’t forget about Garcia.

Much of the Cardinals attention is currently focused on Matt Holliday these days after they signed Brad Penny to seemingly replace current free agent Joel Piniero. That leaves the Cards with four definite starters: Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Brad Penny, and Kyle Lohse. St. Louis may try bringing back veteran John Smoltz or someone else to plug the fifth spot in the rotation but it could very well be filled with an in-house candidate.

Mitchell Boggs and P.J. Walters figure to be some of those in-house candidates but then there is also the case of the intriguing Jaime Garcia. Garcia was cruising through the Cardinals system before elbow soreness cut short his 2007 season. He made 18 inspiring starts between Double-A and Triple-A in 2008 and received a call up to the big leagues in July 2008. Garcia served as a reliever and had a tough ten game trial (7.07 FIP) before it was determined that he needed Tommy John surgery on his left arm.

Garcia returned in 2009 and logged 38 innings in the minor leagues after surgery. He performed well in the postseason for the Triple-A Memphis club. Garcia attacks hitters with a sinking fastball that ranges from the upper 80’s to the lower 90’s and he has a hammer 12-6 curveball. Baseball America reports that he added a third useful offering last season in their recent scouting report, “He used his rehab to add a pitch that’s a cross between a cutter and slider”.

Garcia’s sinking fastball has induced ground balls at a mighty pace throughout the minor leagues. Here are his ground ball rates, courtesy of Firstinning.com, throughout the Cardinals system.

2006: A ball (78 IP)- 65%. A+ (77 IP)- 62%
2007: AA (103 IP)- 56%
2008: AA (35 IP)- 62%. AAA (71 IP)- 55%. MLB (16 IP)- 63%
2009: Rookie (4 IP)- 85%. A+ (13 IP)- 71%. AAA (21 IP)- 55%

At every single level Garcia has induced ground balls at an amazing rate. His lowest ground ball rate is 55% in 92 combined innings during two Triple-A stints. Consider the top five ground ball percentages for 2009 MLB pitchers:

1. Joel Piniero– 60.5%
2. Derek Lowe– 56.3%
3. Jason Marquis– 55.6%
4. Chris Carpenter– 55%
5. Rick Porcello– 54.2%

Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright ranked #13 with a 50.7% rate. The Cardinals had three of their 2009 starters within the top 15 and two within the top 5. Piniero is likely signing elsewhere but that doesn’t mean the Cardinals won’t have another ground ball pitcher in their 2010 rotation.

There’s no reason not to believe that Garcia could induce ground balls at a very solid clip as a starter in the majors. His pitching repertoire would fit right into the Cardinals rotation. The Cardinals defense is very solid up the middle with slick fielding shortstop Brendan Ryan (10.6 UZR) and the rangy Colby Rasmus (8.9 UZR) is center field. Second base is the weak spot but the Julio Lugo/Skip Schumaker tandem may provide average defense with Lugo (-3.5 UZR in 168 innings) shifting over from shortstop. Schumaker (-7.7 UZR) will be spending his second season ever at the position after spending almost his entire professional career as an outfielder and there might be room for more defensive improvement.

It is also encouraging to know that with last seasons defense the Cardinals four primary starters and ground ball specialists had these BABIPS:

Adam Wainwright– .309
Chris Carpenter– .272
Joel Piniero– .293
Kyle Lohse– .300

The Cardinals defense certainly didn’t hurt these pitchers last season.

Garcia is entering 2010 with a clean bill of health and should get a long look during the Spring. He’s one of the Cardinals better pitching prospects and offers more upside over Mitchell Boggs and P.J. Walters. But that doesn’t mean he’ll be given the job. Since his professional career began in 2006 Garcia has never topped the 155 inning mark and he hit that career high in his first pro season in the lower minors. Below are Garcia’s inning totals:

2006- 155 IP
2007- 103 IP *season ends early due to elbow soreness*
2008- 122 IP *season ends with Tommy John Surgery*
2009- 38 IP *first season back from Tommy John Surgery*

It’s also worth noting that some fear Garcia’s pitching mechanics and Garcia really can’t be expected to fire 170+ big league innings next year from the Cardinals rotation. They will closely monitor Garcia and his innings total.

Keep a close eye on Garcia’s progress this Spring and the Cardinals plans. He might be ticketed to Triple-A Memphis to start 2010 but he could arrive to St. Louis’s rotation at some point during the year. He’d be a cheap pick up and worth the gamble if he’s ever presented with the opportunity to start at the big league level. If he makes the big league rotation on opening day I’d recommend picking him up but keep in mind that he likely won’t last in that role for the entire season due to his past inning totals and the fact that this will be his first full season back from injury.

Garcia fits the Cardinals overall pitching scheme and their defense is going to help him and his sinking fastball. Don’t be surprised if he’s grounding opponents with his sinker this summer in St. Louis.

With 2010 nearly upon us, we’re being inundated with retrospectives recapping all that has occurred over the past year. Let’s add one more list to the mix: starting pitchers with the biggest difference between their Earned Run Average (ERA) and Expected Fielding Independent ERA (xFIP).

Why? Because ERA doesn’t give the most accurate assessment of pitching performance. As Colin Wyers at The Hardball Times showed this past summer, ERA does a rather poor job at predicting future ERA.

Wyers found that xFIP, which is based on a pitcher’s strikeouts, walks and a normalized home run per fly ball rate, has more predictive value than any other pitching metric. In other words, knowing a pitcher’s xFIP tells us more about his skill level and what his future performance may be than simply knowing his ERA would.

A pitcher’s ERA is subject to some factors largely outside of his control. The defensive skill of his teammates plays a part in the rate at which balls put in play are converted into outs. BABIP isn’t entirely out of a pitcher’s control: fly balls have a lower BABIP than ground balls, so fly ball-slanted hurlers tend to have a lower BABIP (the fly balls that aren’t caught are far more damaging, though). Plus, pitchers adept at getting infield pop ups generally have lower BABIP figures, as those are near-automatic outs.

However, team defense can have a large bearing on a pitcher’s ERA. Some get the backing of airtight defenses. The 2009 Seattle Mariners, for instance, saved 12 runs more than the average club per 150 defensive games. Other pitchers get a bunch of plodders and iron gloves. Take the Mets, who were over seven runs below average per 150 defensive games.

Maybe a groundball skips into the outfield for a hit because your second baseman has fall-down range. Or perhaps your world-class center fielder shows off his ridiculous D and runs down a sure fire extra-base hit. ERA doesn’t care either way. Franklin Gutierrez is awesome, but we’re trying to measure the skill of the pitcher here.

A pitcher’s ERA may also be distorted by abnormally high or low home run/fly ball percentages and rates of stranding runners on base. HR/FB rates for pitchers tend to stick around 10-12 percent. Some pitchers may be better than others at throwing from the stretch, but it’s usually a good idea to expect some regression if a guy’s strand rate strays too far from the 70-72% league average.

With all of that being said, here are the starting pitchers (100 inning minimum) with the biggest discrepancies between their ERA and xFIP.

First, the guys who outperformed their peripherals. These are the pitchers whose controllable skills weren’t as good as their ERAs would indicate.

Lower ERA than xFIP

Keep in mind, an appearance on this list does not mean that a pitcher is going to spontaneously combust. You’ll note the presence of Cain, Hanson, Carpenter, Kershaw, Santana, Greinke and King Felix, among other well-regarded starters. It just means that we would expect some regression moving forward. Greinke is a monster (3.15 xFIP), he’s just not likely to go all Pedro Martinez circa 1999 on a regular basis.

Here are the starters whose peripherals were better than their ERAs. These guys performed better than their ERAs suggest.

Higher ERA than xFIP

For some of these starters, you’ll notice strong strikeout-to-walk ratios dragged down by lofty BABIP figures and very low strand rates. Nolasco and Hamels are excellent bounce-back candidates.

When preparing for your 2010 draft, lists like these are a good place to start. But it’s also important to look beyond just the 2009 numbers, taking multiple years of performance into account whenever possible. Due diligence can help you avoid wasting a high draft pick on a ticking time bomb and can help uncover a diamond in the rough.

Prior to July 10th, 2009, Giants southpaw Jonathan Sanchez was just a high-octane, low-command curiosity to those outside of the Bay Area. No-hitters have a way of raising one’s profile, however.

A 27th round pick in the 2004 draft out of Ohio Dominican University, Sanchez quickly attracted attention in San Francisco’s farm system. The lanky lefty blew hitters out of their cleats in the minors, making 48 starts and 19 relief appearances from 2004 to 2007. Sanchez punched out an obscene 11.9 batters per nine frames, displaying decent control with 3.5 BB/9.

The native of Puerto Rico shot up the prospect ladder. He ranked 23rd in Baseball America’s Giants list in 2005, 6th in 2006 and 2nd prior to the 2007 season. BA called Sanchez’s fastball “sneaky-fast,” sitting in the low-90’s while occasionally creeping up to the mid-90’s.

He also had a “plus changeup” that “fooled hitters at every level,” as well as a sweeping slider in the developmental stages. There was some concern that Sanchez’s slender frame wouldn’t hold up under a starter’s work load (his career high IP in the minors was 125.2), but lefties with wicked stuff don’t grow on trees, and he had more long-term value pitching every fifth day.

Sanchez made his big league debut in late May of 2006, pitching mostly out of the ‘pen (23 relief appearances, four starts). In 40 IP, he whiffed 7.43 batters per nine innings while handing out 5.18 BB/9. His plan was simple: chuck low-90’s fastballs (thrown 72 percent of the time, with a run value of +0.79 per 100 pitches). Sanchez’s rarely-used breaking stuff (-0.25 runs/100) and changeup (-4.16) rarely hit the intended target. His xFIP was 5.40.

In 2007, Sanchez again spent most of his time in relief, with 29 ‘pen appearances and four starts. His 5.88 ERA was ugly, but there were signs of improvement. Jonathan K’d 10.73 per nine frames, lowering his walk rate modestly as well (4.85 BB/9). His fastball, thrown 71 percent, wasn’t as effective (-0.46 runs/100), and that “plus” changeup didn’t manifest (-1.98). But sliders and curves (+2.22) got the job done. With better breaking pitches, Sanchez raised his outside swing percentage from 19.4 in ’06 to 27.2 in ’07. In 52 innings, his xFIP improved to 4.18.

The Giants made Sanchez a full-time starter in 2008, giving him 29 turns in the rotation. Sanchez struck out an impressive 8.94 hitters per nine innings, though he was generous with the free passes, too (4.85 BB/9). Still, his 4.14 xFIP in 158 innings pitched far surpassed his 5.01 ERA. The San Fran southpaw suffered from a .327 batting average on balls in play, 10th-highest among starters tossing at least 150 innings.

As a starter, Sanchez used his fastball as a security blanket. He tossed the 91 MPH offering nearly 73 percent of the time, the 7th-highest rate among starters. The pitch had a run value of +0.33 per 100 thrown. His low 80’s breaking stuff (thrown 12 percent) had a -0.39 runs/100 value. The low-80’s changeup (thrown 15 percent) remained cannon fodder (-1.51).

Though unpolished, Sanchez was plenty hard to hit. His 75.7% contact rate was well below the 80.8% major league average, and his 10.9 swinging strike percentage put him in elite territory. The MLB average for starters is 7.8 percent, and Sanchez’s figure ranked 10th among starters.

Last off-season, former Rotographs writer Peter Bendix dubbed Sanchez a breakout candidate. His reasoning?

Certainly, Sanchez threw too many balls this year (38.6%, to be exact – league average is 36.5%), and walked too many – 4.27 per nine innings. However, starting pitchers who can get as many swings-and-misses – and, therefore, strikeouts – as Sanchez are few and far between. Sanchez’s ERA was artificially inflated by his inability to “stop the bleeding” this year – a fact that is probably borne from a combination of inexperience and bad luck. Therefore, it’s likely that Sanchez will fare better in “clutch” situations next season, thus lowering his ERA, perhaps considerably.

Bendix’s prediction proved correct, as Sanchez’s ERA and peripheral stats were a near-perfect match in 2009. In 163.1 IP, Sanchez posted a 4.24 ERA while compiling a 4.19 xFIP. His BABIP came back down to .290, as the Giants featured sleek leather (5th in the majors in team Ultimate Zone Rating).

Sanchez whiffed even more hitters this past year, with an eye-popping 9.75 K/9 (6th among starters). His contact rate dipped to 73.8 percent. Among starters with 140+IP, only Rich Harden and Javier Vazquez had more success avoiding lumber in 2009.

Jonathan’s swinging strike rate remained steady at 10.8 percent, and his percentage of plate appearances ending with a K increased from 22.6 to 24.75 (16% average for starters). Not bad for a guy temporarily demoted to the bullpen in late June.

Control, however, remained elusive. Sanchez walked 4.85 batters per nine frames. He did have five intentional walks in ’09, compared to just one in 2008. But his unintentional walk rate still rose from 10.7 percent to 11.9 percent (7.5% average for starters).

In terms of pitch selection, Sanchez leaned on his fastball less than in 2008. He threw a heater 66 percent, with a league-average run value per 100 pitches (+0.06). Jonathan’s changeup still fooled no one (-1.62).

It’s his slider that made the most progress. Sanchez’s Pitch F/X data shows that he actually has a pair of low-80’s breaking pitches: a slider and a curveball. In 2008, he threw a pretty even distribution of sliders (6.3%) and curves (7.1%). In ’09, he went to the slider far more often (18 percent, compared to 4.9% for the curve).

Courtesy of Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X tool, here’s the tale of the tape for Sanchez’s breaking pitches in 2008 and 2009. Jonathan’s curve fell out of favor, while he tightened his slider:

2008

Slider: 51.7 Strike%, 14.4 Whiff%
Curve: 60.3 Strike%, 22.2 Whiff%

2009

Slider: 60.8 Strike%, 15.6 Whiff%
Curve: 53.2 Strike%, 13.7 Whiff%

Sanchez’s breaking stuff had a +1.96 run/100 value in 2009. The slider showed more bite. The average lefty slider breaks away from lefties (in toward righties) 1 to 1.5 inches more than a pitch thrown without spin. Sanchez’s slider actually broke in toward lefties 1.1 inches in ’08. In ’09, the pitch moved away from southpaw batters nearly three inches.

Despite his wildness, Sanchez has displayed the skills of an above-average starter in each of the past two seasons. The 27 year-old is a quality, if occasionally aggravating, fantasy option. Sanchez is a good bet to post another low-four’s ERA next year: CHONE pegs him for a 4.26 mark in 2010, with 9.3 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9. His control keeps him out of the batch of elite arms, but Sanchez makes the Giants rotation more than just Lincecum, Cain and pray for rain.

Seeing that it’s the Holiday season, we are making wishes come true and answering your fantasy questions from our mailbag. Reader Scott writes:

Greetings. I’ve got a tough decision to make in my 9-team NL-only dynasty roto league. Through some solid trades over the past two years, I’ve compiled a strong team, but I can’t decide on my last keeper. We keep 8.
Definites: Hanley Ramirez, Chase Utley, Prince Fielder, David Wright, Matt Kemp, Tim Lincecum
Undecided: Josh Johnson, Clayton Kershaw, Pablo Sandoval.
With the hitters I’ve already got, I’m leaning toward keeping Johnson and Kershaw, even though it pains me to let Sandoval go. Though I am nervous about Johnson getting dealt to an AL team. And I’m nervous about Kershaw’s wildness. So, pick two from those three to keep.
We use standard 5×5 categories (Avg., HR, RBI, R, SB … ERA, WHIP, W, S, Ks).
Lineups: 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, C, C, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, Utility; 9 pitchers, no restrictions.
Also, each team keeps 1 AL player (any position) as a “DH” … and mine is Ian Kinsler.

You are right to be worried about Kershaw’s wildness. Even though Kershaw posted a 2.79 ERA in 171 innings last year, he walked 4.79 batters every nine innings, earning himself a 2.03 K/BB ratio and a 3.90 xFIP. While Kershaw may have improved his strikeout rate from his rookie year, his walks increased and his ground ball rate declined. The walk rate is not as bothersome as the ground ball rate, which dropped almost 10% down to 39.4%. A fluky 4.1% HR/FB% will rise, as will his ERA. His stuff is electric, namely his fastball. He has room to improve as a pitcher, but it is unlikely his numbers will be as good as they were last year.

As far as Johnson goes, I’d be more afraid of an injury than a trade. Johnson will likely pitch this season for Florida and be dealt before the 2011 campaign. While this isn’t the best scenario for a keeper, his numbers from last year make it hard to pass up another season of his production. In over 200 innings in 2009, Johnson posted a 8.22 K/9 and 3.29 K/BB, earning himself 15 wins and a 3.23 ERA (3.40 xFIP). He understands how to get ground balls, with a 50.3% rate last year and a career rate of 47.8%. He has a good fastball to go along with a slider and changeup. Johnson had elbow problems in early 2007, and had Tommy John surgery later in the season. If he can stay healthy, he looks to be on pace for another stellar season in 2010.

Sandoval is a solid hitter, but looks to have reached his power peak last season. He isn’t likely to do much better than his .330/.387/.556 line and 25 homers he hit last year. But, don’t expect a decline either. Because he should no longer have his catcher eligibility, his value goes down.

All three have their issues as keepers, but due to your abundance of hitters I would recommend keeping Johnson and Kershaw. While both have their problems, your team should be better off. If you can find a way to package Johnson and Sandoval in a deal for a pitcher, that is your best option. You wouldn’t have to worry about Johnson being shipped to the AL or getting hurt, and you would still get to keep two top pitchers to go alongside Lincecum.

Have a question for the RotoGraphs authors? Send it in to our mailbag (rotographs+mailbag@fangraphs.com) for consideration.