Cliff Lee felt no pain while throwing a 51-pitch simulated game on Friday, and the plan is for him to throw another simulated game this week before heading out on a minor league rehab assignment. The goal is to have the Mariners’ co-ace back on a big league mound by May 1st or 2nd.

Brandon Webb, however, isn’t so lucky. The Diamondbacks transferred him to the 60-day DL over the weekend, meaning the earliest he could possibly come back is May 25th. Whether or not he’ll be ready to pitch on that date is another story all together.

Here’s a few notes on some other starting rotation situations from around the league…

Kris Benson: Going from even a less effective version of Webb to Benson is a significant hit, and that’s essentially what the D-Backs have done. Don’t be fooled by Benson’s six inning, two run outing against the Padres in Petco over the weekend, he has negative fantasy value. Once he faces a better lineup in a more hitter friendly park, the blush will be off the rose.

Scott Kazmir: The greatest pitcher in Tampa Bay franchise history returned to the mound last week, putting 11 men on base and allowing six runs to score against the so good it’s scary Yankee offense. He’s unlikely to turn back into the 3.40-ish FIP, 10+ K/9 fantasy stud he was from 2006-2007, but Kazmir definitely remains a fantasy asset. He misses enough bats to produce good strikeout numbers, and if he stays healthy he’s probably looking at ten or so starts against the A’s and Mariners, hardly offensive powerhouses. With normal regression of last year’s 67.5% strand rate, his ERA should drop to the low-to-mid fours. He’s still available in 39% of Yahoo! leagues.

Daisuke Matsuzaka: Dice-K’s rehab stint has gone well so far, as he’s allowed just six baserunners (five hits, one walk) in 11 innings. The strikeouts are down (just five), but right now we don’t have any reason to suspect he’ll drop off from his established 8.53 K/9 rate in the bigs. The important thing is that he appears to be healthy. He still has another minor league start to go, but the Red Sox haven’t announced their plans for the rotation yet. The prevailing thought is that they’ll use a six-man rotation for at least one turn before giving Clay Buchholz or (more likely) Tim Wakefield the boot to the bullpen.

Daniel McCutchen: The Pirates put Ross Ohlendorf on the disabled list over the weekend with back spasms, and replaced him in the rotation with McCutchen, who was on their Opening Day roster. He’s been dreadful in two starts (12 runs, 16 baserunners, just three strikeouts in 7.1 IP), but he has a dynamite minor league track record so a return to some semblance of normalcy is expected. There’s no need to run out and grab him now, but keep an eye on his progression. There’s a chance for a low-four ERA with decent WHIP and strikeout numbers here.

Well, this never happens!

There are no adjustments to the two-start pitchers from Friday. Since this edition usually talks about the new additions from Friday, instead this week let’s focus on the two-start pitchers at the bottom of the barrel, the ones started by the fewest amount of fantasy owners, to see if there is a diamond in the rough.

5. Brad Bergesen (started in 4% of CBS Sports leagues) – Last year in 19 starts in the majors, Bergesen had a 1.55 GB/FB ratio and a nifty 2.34 BB/9, which led to a 3.43 ERA. But Bergesen had a 75.2 LOB% and an 8.3 HR/FB rate, which led to both a higher FIP (4.10) and xFIP (4.42). In his two starts in 2010, he has a 0.47 GB/FB ratio and a 3.52 BB/9. Combined with a 15.8 HR/FB mark, Bergesen’s ERA is an ugly 11.74 in 7.2 IP. It is understandable that owners are reluctant to activate him for two starts this week. But if Bergesen can recapture his ground ball rate, he is worthy of a roster spot.

4. Kyle Kendrick (2%) – A member of the Phillies’ rotation, if Kendrick can give the team innings, he has an excellent chance of picking up wins. But his K rate is poor, his WHIP is nothing special and his ERA is trending upward. The only thing Kendrick has going for him is the chance for wins. And how long will he be in the rotation, especially once Joe Blanton returns from the disabled list?

3. Scott Olsen (1%) – In both 2007 and 2008, Olsen had identical 4.95 xFIPs in seasons where he made 33 starts each. Last year, Osen was limited to 11 games, but he had a 4.91 xFIP. It seems pretty apparent where Olsen’s true talent level is. Olsen has some upside in Ks but he is not a mixed league option except in deep leagues.

2. Charlie Morton (1%) – Coming into the year, some viewed Morton as a potential deep sleeper candidate. In parts of two seasons in Triple-A, Morton has a 12-4 record with a 2.15 ERA. He allowed 44 BB , picked up 134 Ks and allowed just 3 HR in 150.2 IP. But Morton has been pounded in two starts this season. The big problem has been the gopher ball, as he allowed 4 HR in 9.1 IP, and a .429 BABIP is not helping, either. While his ERA is 13.50, his xFIP is 3.34. Morton has a 9.00 K/BB ratio and despite two ugly starts, he is an intriguing option with upside.

1. Craig Stammen (0%) – Okay, I admit I am intrigued by a pitcher who absolutely no one wants in their starting lineup. But unlike Morton, there is little to recommend Stammen. In parts of three seasons in Triple-A, he has a 5-7 record with a 4.98 ERA and a 5.3 K/9. On the plus side, Stammen has done a nice job of getting ground balls in his brief major league career. He has a 1.54 GB/FB ratio in 112 IP, continuing his trend from the minors (54.3 GB%) of keeping the ball down. It is not that Stammen has no chance, but a guy with a 3.94 K/9 ratio has zero room for error.

The Indians pitching staff has made quite a bit of noise in the last few days, as David Huff and Mitch Talbot became the pitchers to throw consecutive complete games for the club since Chad Ogea and Charles Nagy did it way back in September of 1996. Sure enough, the day after Huff’s two run, two hour gem someone had grabbed him out of the free agent pool in my league, but is he worth a roster spot? What about Talbot?

The 25-year-old Huff was the 39th overall pick in the 2006 draft out of UCLA, and he proceeded to burn right through the minors, posting FIP’s near 3.00 in 2007 and 2008. He split last season between Triple-A and the big leagues, putting up a 5.61 ERA (4.69 FIP) with a weak 4.56 K/9 in 23 starts for the Tribe. After demonstrating the ability to limit free passes in the minors, that skill has translated to the majors (for the time being).

In a standard 12-team league, Huff’s not worth a second thought. But if you’re in an AL-only or particularly deep mixed league, just keep an eye out on him in case his strikeout rate starts to climb. He’s not going to be a guy that will anchor a fantasy pitching staff, but he could be a little bit better than your typical 6th or 7th fantasy starter. He’s owned in 3% of Yahoo! leagues.

Talbot, on the other hand, hasn’t demonstrated the ability to contribute to a fantasy club in any way. He has more walks than strikeouts in his two starts, but even in Triple-A his K/9 is an underwhelming 7.3. CHONE projects a 5.25 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP this season, which is about what you should expect. Talbot is what he is, and that’s the 5th starter on a team not quite ready to contend. His complete game last night was a fine effort, but he’s not worth carrying on any fantasy team.

* * *

Quick Note: The Padres are starting lefty Wade LeBlanc at home against the Diamondbacks in place of the injured Chris Young tomorrow. If your team is like mine and you’re way behind in ERA and WHIP this week, LeBlanc is a nice little pickup to try and maximize your strikeouts. He struck out 15 in 10 Triple-A innings earlier this year, and the D-Backs can swing and miss with the best of ’em.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week Three.

Homer Bailey – Long touted as one of the top young pitchers in baseball, Bailey is having the same struggles early in 2010 as he has had throughout his career in the majors – too many walks and trouble with gopher balls. Bailey has a 5.23 BB/9 and has allowed 2 HR in 10.1 IP this year. Bailey has two starts this week at home, where he has allowed 16 of his 25 homers. While neither the Dodgers nor Padres are big HR teams, Bailey at home for two starts is still a good recipe for disaster. Making things even worse is the slow start offensively for the Reds, who are 15th in the NL with an average of 4.30 runs per game.

Brandon Morrow – The good news for Morrow is that his xFIP is half of his ERA. The bad news is that his ERA is 12.00 after two starts. Control has always been an issue for Morrow and he has allowed 6 BB in 9 IP this year. Adding to his problems are that his velocity is down, which may be contributing to the troubles this year with his changeup. His change is already 2.5 runs below average. Morrow is trying to compensate by throwing more curves, but that pitch sits at 1.8 runs below average. Even with a home start against the Royals, put Morrow on the bench until he shows something better than he has so far this season.

Brett Myers – To the dismay of my Razzball team, Myers has been decent so far this season, including a tough loss to the Cardinals in his last outing in which he allowed 1 ER in 7 IP. His fastball velocity still sits below 90, but Myers has cut way back on the number of times he has thrown his heater, down to throwing just 40.5 percent fastballs. Instead, he is now an off-speed pitcher, throwing his curve nearly 32 percent of the time and his slider over 24 percent. The result has been more swings out of the strike zone and more ground balls, two positive changes. Try riding Myers in his home starts this week against the Marlins and Pirates. With the Astros finally winning a game, anything is possible now!

Mike Pelfrey – Before the season started, I thought Pelfrey and his one-pitch repertoire was destined for the bullpen. Instead, he has been the best pitcher for the Mets the first two weeks of the season, with a 2-0 record and a 1.38 ERA. In his last outing against the Rockies, in which he threw seven innings of shutout ball in Colorado, Pelfrey threw five pitches. He threw 13 sliders, 10 curves and 7 changeups according to PitchFX. And 65 percent of his pitches were strikes, including 21 of his 30 off-speed pitches. He gets home starts this week against the Cubs and Braves. It feels like bizarro world recommending both Myers and Pelfrey.

Kevin Slowey – Uncharacteristically, Slowey has had trouble with walks so far this season. After three straight seasons of BB/9 rates under 1.50, Slowey has a 5.23 mark so far this season. But he faces two teams that are below average in the American League in drawing walks, including the 13th-place Royals. Slowey is also a notorious fly ball pitcher, his 0.69 GB/FB mark is the 12th lowest in baseball, and the concern is that he will get roughed up with some home runs. But the Indians are tied for 12th in fewest homers hit. The matchups look good, so make sure Slowey is active.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 2 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Haren, Lackey, Hanson, Cain, de la Rosa, Billingsley, Zambrano, Price, Vazquez, Porcello, Penny, Kazmir, Wells, Niemann, Masterson, Pineiro, G. Gonzalez, Cook, Lewis, Volstad, Wakefield, Richard, Willis, Bush, Niese, Bannister, Bergesen, Kendrick, Fister, Olsen, Morton, Stammen.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

The season is just a week old, so most starters haven’t gotten a chance to pitch their way out of a job or get hurt yet. Let’s check in on the status of some rotation spots around the league.

Jeff Niemann. The 6-foot-9 Rays’ hurler took a line drive off his pitching shoulder last week, but is on track to make his next start on Tuesday at the Orioles. Baltimore has a .308 wOBA as a team through their first six games, but that’s probably not going to last. I’d keep Niemann on the bench until we’re sure the shoulder isn’t an issue.

Gil Meche. The Royals’ highest paid player returned from some spring shoulder issues to predictably get his brains beat in by the Red Sox on Sunday. Gilgameche hasn’t been an effective pitcher since last June and is owned in just 2% of Yahoo! leagues, so he’s not worth your time. Resist the temptation of his 2007-2008 success.

Chris Young. San Diego’s highest paid player was placed on the DL with shoulder tightness yesterday after having surgery on the joint last year. The team has yet to announce his replacement, but the early favorite is fellow shoulder injury All Star Tim Stauffer, who had a good spring and has been strong in two long relief outings (5 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K). The 27-year-old is owned in exactly 0% of Yahoo! leagues, but if you’re in an NL-only or deep mixed league, the Petco factor might make him worth a pick up

The Nationals have swapped Garrett Mock for Livan Hernandez, but that move shouldn’t have any fantasy impact for any league anywhere. Maybe Livan is worth a shot if your league counts bulk innings and bats not missed, but otherwise don’t bother.

One starter yet to make an appearance this year is Phil Hughes of the Yankees, but he’s scheduled to get to call on Thursday to start at home against against the Angels. You’ll probably want to sit him and his 43.2% career FB% in that game, but his next start would come in Oakland, which is always a favorable matchup from a stadium and a quality of lineup faced perspective. Hughes is owned in 65% of Yahoo! leagues, and if he’s still available in yours, gobble him up. That goes double if you’re in an AL-only or deep mixed league. The Yankees are going to score a ton of runs for the 23-year-old, and their bullpen is good enough to preserve a lead for four innings. Just make sure you pick your spots with him until he gets in a groove.

Here is the latest update to Week Two 2-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

SDP – Kevin Correia
PIT – Paul Maholm

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

SDP – Chris Young

Correia was victimized by the gopher ball in his first outing of 2010. He gave up 3 HR in 6 IP at Arizona. He should have an easier time of things this week with two starts in Petco. Last year in his first season with the Padres, Correia had a 3.68 ERA at home, thanks to a .264 BABIP in Petco. He squares off this week first against the Braves and then ends up with a repeat match against the Diamondbacks.

Maholm had a 7.3 HR/FB rate last year. He gave up a home run already this year in his first game, part of four runs he allowed in six innings. Last year Maholm threw his curve ball and changeup virtually the same number of times. In his first start in 2010, he threw his curve 25.6 percent of the time and his changeup 12.2 percent. Also, Maholm’s velocity was down nearly three mph in his first outing.

Meanwhile, Young is likely to be placed on the 15-day DL on Monday with tightness in his pitching shoulder.

This is a weekly column that looks at projected two-start pitchers for the following week. In addition to listing all of the starters scheduled for the coveted two starts, this column will focus on five pitchers that you may be on the fence (or should be on the fence) about starting in the upcoming week.

John Maine – In his first start of the year, Maine gave up 2 HR in 5 IP. This week he has road starts in Colorado and St. Louis. In one of his final Spring Training outings, Maine allowed two homers against the Cardinals. With his average fastball velocity under 90 in his first start, put Maine on the bench this week and wait for an improved fastball before activating him.

Carl Pavano – Between 2005 and 2008, Pavano managed just nine wins in the majors and became nothing more than a punch line. But last year he notched 14 wins and both his FIP and xFIP were a full run lower than his ERA. Pavano went 7 IP and allowed just 1 ER in his 2010 debut. He has two home starts this week, including one against the Royals. Check the waiver wire and see if he is available in your league.

Ervin Santana – It was a rough debut for Santana, who allowed 4 ER in 6 IP in his home start against the Twins. This week he has two road starts, facing off against the Yankees and the Blue Jays. Santana had good velocity on his fastball but struggled with his slider, usually his out pitch. With two trips to the East Coast this week, bench Santana if you have other options.

Chris R. Young – In the last three years, Young is 11-6 with a 2.07 ERA in Petco Park and 9-14 with a 5.44 ERA in road games, making him one of the easiest decisions for fantasy players. This week he has home starts against the Braves and Diamondbacks, so make sure he is in your lineup.

Barry Zito – Last year, Zito posted a 7.22 K/9 ratio, his highest mark since 2001. In his first start this year, Zito fanned five batters in six innings. He did allow a bunch of fly balls in his first start but historically Zito has had a below-average HR/FB rate. This week he faces the Pirates and Dodgers. Most of the Pirates’ HR power comes from Garrett Jones, who has a lifetime .197 AVG versus southpaws (albeit with 7 HR and a .247 ISO). The Dodgers have hit just 2 HR so far this year. Look for Zito to continue his strong pitching this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 2 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Wainwright, Hamels, Peavy, Kershaw, Garza, Lester, Jurrjens, Nolasco, Dempster, Floyd, Anderson, Scherzer, W. Rodriguez, Harden, Pettitte, Cueto, Matusz, Romero, Carmona, Arroyo, Kennedy, Ducsscherer, Rowland-Smith, Marquis, Hochevar, Robertson, Davis, Ohlendorf, Guthrie, Tallet, Smith.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

“Don’t Give Up On…” will be a weekly feature this season, highlighting players who have proven that they’re better than their current slumps would suggest.

No, Chicago Cubs righty Carlos Zambrano is not an ace. And yes, the Atlanta Braves chewed Big Z up and spit him out like a piece of Juicy Fruit that lost its flavor. The 28 year-old surrendered six hits, two walks and eight runs while retiring just four Braves on opening day. But that doesn’t mean that you should make him a scape(billy)goat, trading him for fifty cents on the dollar or outright releasing him.

Granted, there were reasons to expect Zambrano to regress in 2010 even prior to his grisly outing. There was a half-run difference between his 2009 ERA (3.77) and his expected FIP (4.27). His punch out rate climbed back to over eight batters per nine frames after a couple years of decline, but he issued 4.15 BB/9 and benefitted from a low 5.6 home run per fly ball rate (Zambrano’s career rate is 9.1 percent, and the average for pitchers is around 10-12 percent). With more fly balls finding the seats, Zambrano looks like a low-four’s ERA pitcher.

But, owners might be making knee-jerk reactions in giving Z the boot. According to his ESPN player page, Zambrano is owned in 69 percent of fantasy leagues. Following Z’s F-caliber performance against Atlanta, 8.9 percent of his owners let him loose.

Coming into the season, Zambrano was projected for 4.08 FIP by CHONE. Using the CHONE projections available here on the site, I calculated the FIP of all starters to see who matched up with Zambrano. Here are some starters projected for similar FIPs, as well as their ownership percentage in fantasy leagues (from ESPN):

As you can see, six of these starters are owned in all leagues, and Lilly and Blanton (both on the DL) are owned in the vast majority of leagues. When they return to action, their ownership percentages will likely creep up a bit. In “real life” baseball, Big Z is a burden on Chicago’s payroll. Compared to his peers in fantasy, however, Zambrano actually seems undervalued.

If Carlos Zambrano is the best starter on your team in a shallow league, you’re in trouble. But he’s still plenty useful in all formats. One start, no matter how ugly, shouldn’t weigh too heavily in the minds of fantasy owners. There’s a tendency to over-analyze this time of year, trying to infer too much from too small a sample size. Getting caught up in the hyperbole and making a snap decision is a good way to hurt your team in the long run.

The 2010 San Diego Padres don’t figure to pose much of a threat in the NL West. CHONE projects a fourth-place finish for the club, while Oliver and PECOTA have the Pad people bringing up the rear in the division. San Diego will feature a lineup filled with players such as Kyle Blanks (23 years old) Everth Cabrera (23), Chase Headley (25), Nick Hundley (26), Tony Gwynn Jr. (27) and Will Venable (27) who are trying to establish themselves as fixtures in the team’s long-term plans.

However, the most highly regarded young Padre resides in the starting rotation. Mat Latos, 22, will open the year as San Diego’s fifth starter.

A 6-6, 225 pound right-hander from Florida, Latos dropped to the 11th round of the 2006 draft despite touching the mid-nineties during his senior season in high school. Teams were concerned about his bonus demands, but the Padres took a flyer. Latos attended Broward Community College in Florida, and eventually signed with San Diego through the now-defunct draft-and-follow process for a cool $1.25 million bonus.

Making his pro debut in 2007, Latos threw 56.1 innings for Eugene of the Short-Season Northwest League. He struck out 11.82 batters per nine innings and walked 3.51, posting a 2.19 FIP and rising to third on Baseball America’s list of Padres prospects. BA liked his “potential for three plus pitches”: 92-97 MPH gas, a hard curveball and a changeup.

In 2008, Latos was sidelined with variety of ailments. According to BA, Latos lost innings with “shoulder, oblique and attitude problems.” He tossed just 56 frames across three levels (Rookie Ball, Short-Season and High-A), whiffing 11.1 per nine innings and issuing 2.1 BB/9 with a FIP around three. Latos moved up a spot to #2 on the Padres’ prospect list, as he was praised for “ridiculously good” stuff but dinged for a “flippant attitude.”

This past year, Latos pummeled High-A and Double-A hitters before reaching the big leagues in July. He was sidelined with an ankle injury early in the season, but posted rates of 9.1 K/9, 1.5 BB/9 and a sub-two FIP (aided by an extremely low HR rate) in 72.1 innings between Fort Wayne and San Antonio.

Latos made 10 starts over 50.2 innings for the Padres, with 6.93 K/9, 4.09 BB/9 and a 4.67 xFIP. He showcased 94 MPH velocity, mixing in low-80’s breaking balls and changeups.

Considering the sample size, it’s best not to slice and dice Latos’ major league numbers too much. But we did get an indication of the quality of his stuff, as his contact rate (77.9 percent) came in below the 80-81% MLB average and his 10 percent swinging strike rate was above the 8.6% MLB norm.

In the long term, there’s a lot to like with Latos. He’s very talented, and he’ll have the benefit of making his home starts in a park that decreases run scoring around 25 percent compared to a neutral venue.

As for 2010, Latos could be a nice late-round pick. CHONE and ZiPS both predict that he will be an above-average starter:

CHONE: 87 IP, 7.66 K/9, 3.52 BB/9, 0.93 HR/9, 3.98 FIP
ZiPS: 83 IP, 6.31 K/9, 3.38 BB/9, 0.76 HR/9, 4.02 FIP

The big question regarding Latos is, how often will he pitch? The Padres will keep a close eye on his workload, given that Latos hasn’t come anywhere near throwing a full major league season’s worth of innings. Considering San Diego’s likely also-ran status, as well as Latos’ long-terms promise and durability concerns, expect the righty to be handled conservatively.

Latos is a strong pick in keeper leagues, and he should be pretty good when he pitches in 2010. Just don’t draft him expecting a big innings total.

(I couldn’t help myself.)

It seems that Mike Leake has taken the Reds’ fifth starter job, making him the first player to skip the minors since Xavier Nady in 2000 and the first pitcher since Darren Dreifort in 1994. (Shame on him for outpacing our crack staff here at FanGraphs, but his player page will be up as soon as he plays a game.) Prospect Maven Marc Hulet will be giving us a detailed scouting report on Leake shortly, so I will focus here on finding a good comp for Leake. That might help us appraise his chances for success in the coming year.

Darren Dreifort doesn’t really make a for a good comp because he had what was considered at the time to be plus-plus tools or stuff, and he also came up as a reliever. Nady’s obviously not a good comp, though with Leake taking the ball for Dusty Baker, he may have as many TJ surgeries in his future as the Cubbies’ outfielder (zing!). Yes he pitches with a different hand, but could Jim Abbott provide us the best comp for Leake?

Abbott was also a first round draft pick that skipped the minor leagues. Just as there’s some skepticism about Leake’s eventual upside, there were rumblings around baseball that the Angels decision to bring Abbott up so quickly was about ticket sales and publicity. Leake is considered a good athlete for his position but his tools are doubted. Abbott was a little taller than Leake (6’3″ to Leake’s 6’0″), but they seem to be of similar build, clocking in around 200-210 pounds each. Mariano Rivera once talked of Abbott hitting home runs in batting practice, and he tripled in a spring training game once, so Abbott was an athletic guy too.

Abbot’s bread and butter was a fastball-curveball combination and eventually succeeded for a while because of slightly above-average control. Leake’s best two pitches are a fastball and a curveball and has above-average command of those two pitches. If only they pitched with the same hand, they’d seem to make a solid comparison.

In some ways, the Abbott comp could be seen as a compliment. After all, Abbott is one of only fourteen left-handers to have more than 12 wins at the age of 21 in the last 80 years. But of course, that’s a terrible stat to use to measure a pitcher, and it’s the other statistics that we are more interested in. Abbott did win those 12 games with a below-average ERA (97 ERA+ in 1989), and aside from the inspirational aspect, his career was not particularly long or distinguished. Given the possibility of an above-average lineup behind him, Leake could win some games in 2010. But those picking him should probably not hope for much more from the Reds’ starter than Abbott gave the Angels in his debut season. Abbott had a 3.92 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, and 5.71 K/9 that year.