When San Francisco Giants starter Tim Lincecum broke into the majors back in May of 2007, he was a mop-topped, rail thin kid firing mid-90’s bullets toward home plate. While he still might fit the physical description of a high school freshman, his pitching approach has changed drastically over the years.

During the 2007 season, Lincecum averaged 94.2 MPH with his fastball, throwing the pitch about 67 percent of the time while mixing in 81 MPH curveballs (thrown 20 percent) and 84 MPH changeups (13 percent). Take a look at his pitch selection since that point:

Lincecum’s fastball velocity has dipped nearly three MPH since 2007, and he’s going to the heat far less often. Instead, he’s increasingly relying upon what can only be described as a toxic changeup.

According to our pitch type run values, Timmy’s change has been worth +3.27 runs per 100 pitches over the past three calendar years. It’s the sort of offering that can cause batters to have an existential crisis at the dish: Lincecum has thrown the pitch for a strike 75.9 percent this season (60.7% MLB average). It has a 34.3 percent whiff rate (12.6% MLB average). The pitch has been swung at 69.9 percent of the time (48.1% MLB average), to no avail.

While the Pitch F/X data differs somewhat from the Baseball Info Solutions data in the chart above, we can see that Lincecum is going to a two-seam fastball a little over 16 percent of the time in 2010. Previously, Lincecum tossed a four-seamer with little horizontal movement but a good deal of “rising” action, relative to a pitch thrown without spin. That may help explain Lincecum’s career-high 50 percent ground ball rate this year.

Lincecum, sitting 91 MPH with a four-seamer and two-seamer and going to his change over a quarter of the time, is even harder to hit than his previous, higher-octane self. His contact rate, between 74 and 76% from 2006-2008, is just 70 percent this season (80-81% MLB average). That’s tied with rotation mate Jonathan Sanchez for the lowest mark in the majors. Lincecum’s swinging strike, which ranged from 10.3-11.8% from ’06 to ’08, sits at an obscene 14.4. Opposing hitters just can’t lay off his stuff: Lincecum has a major league-best 35.8 outside swing percentage in 2010. That blows away his 24-27% marks the previous three years, as well as the 27% big league average.

In 42.1 innings so far, Lincecum laps the field with a 1.98 expected FIP (xFIP). The closest competitor is Roy Halladay, at a still-ridiculous-but-distant 2.78. Lincecum is punching out 11.91 batters per nine innings (best among starters) and has issued just 1.7 BB/9. Aside from his cap (the only thing nastier than his than his changeup), Lincecum has changed just about everything since he debuted. And right now, he’s pitching at a different level than the competition.

Heading into 2010, Seattle Mariners starter Doug Fister was a relative unknown outside of (and perhaps even in) the Pacific Northwest. The 6-foot-8 beanpole did a decent job in his big league debut last season, posting a 4.50 xFIP with 5.31 K/9 and 2.21 BB in 61 innings. But Fister never cracked Baseball America’s list of Seattle’s top 30 prospects, and neither CHONE (4.86 FIP) nor ZiPS (5.08 FIP) expected much out of the 26 year-old this season.

Yet, following a start last night against the Texas Rangers in which he tossed eight shutout innings, Fister now holds a 1.29 ERA in 35 total frames. Fantasy owners haven’t joined the Fister fan club, however, as the 7th round pick in the 2006 draft is owned in 33 percent of Yahoo leagues and 6.3 percent of ESPN leagues. It appears that many players are justifiably skeptical of Fister’s fast start.

First, the good. Fister has issued just 1.29 BB/9, while locating 53.5 percent of his pitches within the strike zone (the MLB average is 48.2 percent in 2010). That has contributed to an above-average 60 percent rate of first pitch strikes (57.5% MLB average). The righty displayed sharp control throughout his minor league tenure as well, with 2.2 BB/9 overall and just 0.9 BB/9 at Triple-A Tacoma in 2009. A slight groundball pitcher in the minors (47.2 GB%, according to Minor League Splits), Fister has a 51.9 GB% so far this year.

The Bad? Fister isn’t fooling anyone. Utilizing an 88-89 MPH fastball over three-quarters of the time, he has punched out just 4.11 batters per nine innings. His 89.7 percent contact rate is well north of the 80.7 percent MLB average, and Fister’s 4.1 percent swinging strike rate is less than half of the 8.3 percent big league average.

And, as you probably guessed by that ERA, he’s been incredibly lucky. Fister has a .218 BABIP, without surrendering a home run. His rate of stranding runners on base (82.8 percent) will also regress in the months to come. Overall, Fister’s expected FIP, based on K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, is 3.97.

Fister does boast very good control, and he’s backed by strong defenders: after leading the majors in team Ultimate Zone Rating in 2009, the Mariners rank 5th in 2010. But even so, Fister looks more like a league average starting pitcher than some breakout star. ZiPS projects 4.81 K/9, 2.37 BB/9 and a 4.62 FIP for the rest of the season.

I would say don’t get fooled by the shiny ERA. But, judging from those ownership rates, most fantasy players already know better.

Here’s the latest on some young pitchers serving as injury replacements around the league…

Trevor Cahill & Vin Mazzaro | Athletics

I mentioned Brett Anderson’s elbow issue last week, but it turned out to be a little worse than expected; he’s going to miss as much as the next six weeks with a forearm injury. If that wasn’t bad enough, the A’s lost Justin Duchscherer on Thursday when he left his start with pain in his twice-surgically repaired hip. They’ve been replaced in the rotation by Cahill and (unofficially) Mazzaro, both of whom saw plenty of time with the big league team last year.

Cahill threw 178.2 IP of 4.92 xFIP ball with just a 4.53 K/9 last year, when he jumped from Double-A to the show. Mazzaro approximately replicated that performance (5.10 xFIP, 5.81 K/9) in a much smaller sample (91.1 IP), though he had some Triple-A time under his belt. Both have some nice long-term potential, but neither offers much in the world of fantasy baseball at the moment. Oakland’s schedule is a little tough over the next few weeks (Rangers twice, Rays, Angels), so don’t run out to grab either. Avoid the temptations of future potential, they’re non-rosterable at this point.

Jhoulys Chacin & Esmil Rogers | Rockies

With Jorge de la Rosa and Jason Hammel landing on the disabled list, the Rockies turned to two of the best young arms their farm system has to offer. Chacin, who posted a 4.97 xFIP in limited action last year, one hit the Giants over seven innings yesterday while Rogers allowed five runs through four the night before. The former features a four-pitch mix and a knockout changeup that helps him neutralizes batters of the opposite hand while the latter struggles with his offspeed offerings at times and might end up in the bullpen long-term.

Colorado’s upcoming schedule includes dates at the Padres and at the Dodgers, so if nothing else they’re looking at a favorable matchup the next turn through the rotation. I’d definitely go Chacin over Rogers though, he’s got a slightly better track record of missing bats and generating ground balls at the higher levels. He’s owned in less than 5% of Yahoo! leagues, so he should be there for the taking.

John Ely | Dodgers

Acquired in the Juan Pierre deal (how’s that one working out?), Ely took the spot of the injured Vicente Padilla, and appears to have a firm grasp on it for the foreseeable future. In his relatively short minor league career (2007 draftee), he’s exhibited solid control of the strike zone (7.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9) and an ability to generate plenty of grounders (50.1% GB). Ely’s not a big stuff guy, but those skills generally portend good things. His next start will be against the Brewers on Thursday, then after that you’re looking at dates with the Diamondbacks and Padres.

In a standard 12-team league, there’s no reason to pay any attention to Ely. If you’re in a particularly deep league and are in a position to sacrifice some ERA and WHIP in exchange for a win near the end of the week, you could take a worse gamble.

Quick Notes

Javier Vazquez has been absolutely dreadful for the Yankees (9.78 ERA, 5.57 xFIP), but don’t expect him to lose his rotation spot anytime soon. Chances are he’ll have his next start skipped since it lands on an off day, and you should definitely keep him glued to the bench until he strings two or three good starts together. The potential for strikeouts and wins (hat tip: Yankee offense) is still there. Rick Porcello hasn’t been Vazquez bad, but he’s been pretty awful as well (8.03 ERA, 4.25 xFIP). Despite rumors of a minor league “get yourself straight” assignment, the Tigers are going to stick with him and hope he rights the ship. If you’re a savvy negotiator, now’s a great time to swoop in and try to buy low on Javy and/or Porcello, especially if the former is owned by a frustrated Yankee fan.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week Five.

Brett Cecil – After getting the Rays and the Red Sox in his first two starts this year, Cecil gets a break from AL East opponents this week with road starts in Cleveland and Chicago, two teams with a combined 18-25 record. Cecil has allowed 2 HR in 12.2 IP but the Indians are 13th in the American League in HR. He will face a harder time on that score against the White Sox, but outside of HR, the Chicago offense has been terrible this year. Southpaws have limited the White Sox to a .216/.219/.381 line this season. Cecil is on the waiver wire in most leagues and could be a nice pickup for his two-start week.

Kevin Correia – After losing his first start of the year, Correia has run off four straight wins. But that has had as much to do with the level of offensive support he has received as it has had to do with his pitching. In his last two starts, Correia has 10.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 BB and 11 H allowed and 2 W. With matchups this week against Ubaldo Jimenez and Roy Oswalt, do not expect the Padres offense to supply him with a ton of runs. Put Correia on the bench this week.

Gavin Floyd – It has been a rough start to 2010 for Floyd, who finally broke into the win column in his last outing. The key was that he did not allow a single walk in 7 IP. Even after that outing, Floyd has a 4.10 BB/9. In the three previous years, Floyd’s highest BB/9 was 3.05. And even with the elevated walk rate, Floyd’s xFIP is 2.42 runs lower than his ERA. With home starts against two sub-.500 teams in the Royals and Blue Jays, Floyd is set up for a good week if he can continue to throw strikes.

Jaime Garcia – As Dave Cameron alluded to yesterday, Garcia has a pretty nice GB rate. Maybe the Cardinals can start removing Skip Schumaker and perhaps even David Freese when he takes the mound. But aside from that, right now Garcia is really outperforming his peripherals. His xFIP is 2.65 runs higher than his ERA. Garcia has yet to allow a run at home this season, but this week he has two road starts, including one against the Phillies and Cole Hamels. Give Garcia a week off if you have a safe alternative.

Max Scherzer – In three of his first four starts this season, Scherzer threw a Quality Start. In his other outing he missed because he only went five innings. In his last start, he got lit up by the Twins. But Scherzer gets a rematch versus Minnesota this week. My opinion is that whenever a pitcher faces a team in back-to-back outings, he usually has the opposite result in the second start. In his other game this week, he faces the weak-hitting Indians, a nice tonic for a pitcher who has allowed a HR in his last four starts. Ignore Scherzer’s poor outing his last time out and keep him active this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week Five are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Jimenez, Kershaw, Oswalt, Dempster, Shields, Lester, Hamels, Baker, E. Santana, Peavy, Pavano, Harden, Matusz, Braden, Garcia, L. Hernandez, Leake, Kennedy, Sanders, Talbot, A. Sanchez, Blanton, O. Perez, Vargas, Maholm, Kawkami, Guthrie, Meche, Wellemeyer, Narveson, Paulino, Mulvey.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week Three pitchers and how they fared.

Bailey – Recommended to sit. 13 Ks, 7.15 ERA, 1.677 WHIP
Morrow – Recommended to sit. W, 16 Ks, 2.08 ERA, 1.077 WHIP
Myers – Recommended to start. W, 8 Ks, 4.15 ERA, 1.539 WHIP
Pelfrey – Recommended to start. 2 W, 9 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 1.333 WHIP
Slowey – Recommended to start – W, 11 Ks, 3.375 ERA, 1.200 WHIP

There’s a few big name starting pitchers returning from the disabled list this week, so let’s look at how their arrival could impact your fantasy team…

Cliff Lee (expected back Friday)

The Mariners aren’t quite sure (or have just declined to announce) who they’re going to lift from the rotation for Lee, but the signs point to Ryan Rowland-Smith. Both Jason Vargas (3.39 FIP) and Doug Fister (2.71) have pitched well enough to keep their jobs, and it’s already been announced that Ian Snell will keep his spot, but just be pushed back a few days in lieu of Lee.

Through just about four complete turns through the rotation, RRS has been the weak spot, posting a 7.47 FIP thanks to a completely unacceptable 0.50 K/BB. He’s run into a little bad homerun luck (15.0% HR/FB), but the scary part is that his BABIP sits at just .198. Once that starts to correct itself, the Aussie-born lefty could see his ERA (4.63) and WHIP (1.33) get even uglier. The fact that the Mariners don’t have a southpaw in the bullpen adds a little more fuel to the fire, especially since RRS has historically been better against same-side batters during his career. He’s still owned in 33% of Yahoo! leagues, which at this point is far too many. Lee, obviously, is a must start all season.

Daisuke Matsuzaka (expected back Sunday)

One of the biggest enigmas in the league, Dice-K went from fantasy stud in 2008 to hurt and ineffective in 2009, and now we have no idea what to expect when he returns from back and neck issues. CHONE projects a 4.30 ERA with his usually high WHIP (1.41) and a slight drop in strikeouts (7.89 K/9), a projection that lumps him in with guys like Jorge de la Rosa, Jonathan Sanchez, and Edwin Jackson. Solid No. 3 or 4 fantasy options, but hardly staff anchors.

However, those three are owned in 81-84% of Yahoo! leagues, while Dice-K is owned in just 46%. The risk of injury and/or total meltdown may be higher, but so is the reward considering the strong defense behind him (yes, I know the Boston’s run prevention attack hasn’t done the job so far, but they will soon enough). With starts coming up against the helpless Orioles (.303 wOBA) and somewhat offensively challenged Angels (.322), jumping on him a little earlier than most could pay dividends. He’ll frustrate the hell out of you, but then again so will most fantasy starters.

Other Notes

Brett Anderson scared fantasy owners and A’s fans alike when he exited his last start with a stiff left elbow, and the team is justifiably taking it slow with him. He may not make his next start, which would put Chad Gaudin or Tyson Ross in the rotation for a turn. Neither has fantasy value. Vicente Padilla was placed on the disabled list, but his replacement has yet to be named. Regardless, none of the possibilities to replace him are viable fantasy options. Jeff Suppan has been replaced by Chris Narveson in Milwaukee’s starting five, but he’s not rosterable in any league. The same could be said for Luis Atilano, who took over for the injured Jason Marquis.

The Blue Jays recalled Brett Cecil earlier this week to replace the injured Brian Tallet, and he went on to strike out eight Rays over 6.2 innings in his first start. The former University of Maryland closer mixes his curveball, slider, and changeup in heavily with his low-90’s fastball, and he’s posted very strong minor league batted ball rates (42.9% GB, 22.9% LD, 28.6% FB). His next start is against the Red Sox at home, but after that he’s looking at outings against the offensively inept Indians (.290 wOBA) and White Sox (.311). If you’re in an AL-only or deep mixed league, he’s a fine option if you look ahead to early next week.

Here is the latest update to Week Four 2-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

PHI – Jamie Moyer
LAD – Josh Towers
DET – Justin Verlander

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

PIT – Daniel McCutchen
LAD – Vicente Padilla
SEA – Ian Snell

In each of his three starts this year, Moyer has gone six innings. In his first two outings, he gave up five runs but in his last outing he allowed just two unearned runs. Moyer his being his usual stingy self with walks and his strikeout rate is up slightly from a year ago. He has been a bit unlucky with home runs allowed, which along with a 60.6 LOB%, helps explain how his xFIP is a full run lower than his ERA. Moyer is a recommended option in only the deepest of mixed leagues. But his chance to pick up wins makes him a useful NL-only pitcher.

Last December, the Dodgers signed Towers to a minor league deal. After three starts in Triple-A Albuquerque, where he went 1-2 with a 4.24 ERA, the Dodgers are expected to promote him to replace Padilla, who went on the 15-day DL with a sore elbow. There is no guarantee that Towers will get two starts next week, as Los Angeles could shuffle its rotation and have Charlie Haeger move up and get two starts, instead.

Because Verlander finished last year with 19 Wins and a 3.45 ERA, it is easy to forget that he got off to a slow start in 2009. But he started last year 0-2 with a 7.88 ERA after three starts. This year he is 1-1 with a 6.95 ERA after four games. His velocity is just as good as it was a season ago, but batters are making more contact this year. Verlander is allowing more fly balls and more of those balls are leaving the park. But Verlander has been hurt by a 55.6 LOB%. On the whole, Verlander is still a must-start fantasy pitcher.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week Four.

Mark Buehrle – He has allowed six runs in back-to-back outings and his K/9 rate has dipped to 3.86, the worst mark of his career. His walk rate is the highest it has been since his rookie season. Buehrle has been unlucky with his strand rate, but that has been cancelled out by a low HR rate. And to make matters worse, the White Sox offense is 12th in the league in runs, averaging just 3.69 per game. Sit Buehrle this week for his road starts in Texas and New York.

Wade Davis – After struggling in his first outing against the Yankees, Davis has put up back-to-back strong outings. Still, his peripherals are all over the map, with a terrible walk rate (5.82), a low BABIP (.205) and an elevated HR rate (18.2). Davis is lucky to have a 2.65 ERA. But I think the walks will come down and the other rates will stabilize, making Davis a good option to put in the lineup this week, especially with two home starts.

Zach Duke – The Pirates scored a combined 17 runs in Duke’s first two starts, helping him get out to a 2-0 record. But Duke is doing worse than his usual poor marks in strikeouts, while both his BB and HR allowed are up. It all makes for a 4.88 xFIP and a 5.91 FIP. With two road games this week, put Duke on your bench this week if at all possible.

Derek Lowe – The troubles that began in the second half of 2009 have carried over into this year for Lowe. He has managed 3 W despite a 5.24 ERA thanks to three outing where the offense put up 7 or more runs for him. But outside of wins, Lowe has been a very poor fantasy pitcher this year. On top of that he has to pitch this week in St. Louis, where he is 1-6 lifetime, including 0-3 with an 8.80 ERA in the latest version of Busch Stadium. Get him out of your starting lineup this week.

Randy Wolf – A trip to Pittsburgh proved to be the perfect tonic for Wolf, who posted his first strong start of the season in his last outing. Still, after four games, his overall numbers are pretty much where you would expect them to be. He faces two below-average teams in runs scored this week in the Pirates and Padres. While I generally do not like pitchers immediately facing a team they just dominated, this week feels like an exception. Make sure Wolf is active.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week Four are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Halladay, F. Hernandez, Weaver, J. Johnson, Beckett, Carpenter, Haren, Gallardo, Greinke, Liriano, Sanchez, Hudson, Hughes, Jackson, Kuroda, Sheets, Marcum, Wilson, Millwood, Harang, Silva, Latos, Eveland, Padilla, Bonderman, Norris, Lohse, Garland, Huff, Lannan, Gorzelanny, Perez, Hammel, Harrison, Snell, Davies, McCutchen.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week Two pitchers and how they fared.

Maine – Recommended to sit. 8 Ks, 13.28 ERA, 2.50 WHIP (2 starts).
Pavano – Recommended to start. W, 6 Ks, 7.71 ERA, 1.71 WHIP (2)
E. Santana – Recommended to sit. W, 13 Ks, 3.68 ERA, 1.16 WHIP (2)
C. Young – Recommended to start. DNP
Zito – Recommended to start. W, 4 Ks, 2.70 ERA, 0.97 WHIP (2)

Once a pitcher holds the Yankees offense to two runs in six innings, fantasy owners sit up and take notice. In their defense, the 39% of Yahoo fantasy owners that still don’t own Dallas Braden have an excuse. For most of his career, Braden has had a strikeout rate closer to five than to the ML average (usually in the high sixes). That poor strikeout rate hasn’t been mitigated by a nice groundball rate either – Braden only burns worms at a 37.6% rate over his career. In fact, it’s hard to tell exactly what he’s done right, except a better-than-average walk rate (2.87 career) and a good changeup (+12.9 runs career).

Well, something’s changed, hasn’t it? Change is the key word here because Braden’s success this year has come from eschewing his fastball (-17.9 runs career) in favor of that changeup. So far this year, he’s throwing the changepiece 32% of the time (compared to 21.4% and 20.1% over the past two years). Just judging by the linear weights, that’s been a good idea, but there’s more to it. His changeup is getting a 22.1% whiff rate this year (anything around 20% is generally thought of as elite – for comparison’s sake, Johan Santana’s changeup had a 17.4% whiff rate last year). Braden’s fastball? A 7% whiff rate. What’s even better is that the fastball only got a 4.4% whiff rate last year – so using his changeup more has made his fastball even better.

Finally, we get to today’s start against the Yankees. Braden threw 81 pitches, and 21 were changeups, for a slightly-below average 26% for him. Even today’s number was above last year’s level, and it’s important to note that these numbers came from a crude Gameday tally, which may have classified some pitches a little differently. In any case, Braden is still going to the changeup more often, even though the 21 changeups today garnered only one whiff. A quick (sanity) check of last year’s whiff totals on the pitch shows that he got 13.7% whiff rates on the pitch last year in a larger sample size. It is reasonable to assume that using the changeup, and its better whiff rates, more often than his fastball is a good choice for Braden and that it will lead to better results.

It seems that Alex Rodriguez ran across the mound while heading back to first after a foul ball in today’s game. Some pitchers – like Braden – take offense to a player touching his mound. The event was timed to coincide with some discussion about Billy Beane saying that Braden had moxie. Well, Braden showed his moxie by barking at Rodriguez and showing him who was king of the hill, and then willing the Athletics to a victory despite two home runs and a triple play by the Yankees. Hopefully, he’ll combine that moxie with continued focus on his changeup. Fantasy owners will rejoice.

After four dreadful starts, Cubs’ manager Lou Piniella announced today that the team is moving Opening Day starter Carlos Zambrano to the bullpen to help out the struggling relief corps. Ted Lilly is returning from the disabled list to assume the vacated rotation spot, and the Chicago brass must feel this is the best way to improve the team’s 6.15 relief ERA. He’ll be available for the first time on Friday.

Zambrano posted a 7.45 ERA and a 1.86 WHIP in his four starts (19.1 IP), but the peripherals aren’t awful. His strikeout rate (12.10 K/9) is through the roof, and even though that’s destined to regress, he should be able to top his 7.74 career K/9 while working in relief. His walk rate is a bit higher than usual at 4.66 BB/9, but he’s allowed an unfathomable amount of homeruns – more than one for every five balls hit in the air, nearly triple his 7.4% HR/FB from 2008-2009.

Closer Carlos Marmol has been ridiculously good in limited action, so don’t expect Zambrano to wrestle the job from him anytime soon. Very few setup men are worth carrying in a standard 5×5, 12-team mixed league, but if Big Z’s homerun rate returns to normal and he maintains a high strikeout rate, he’s definitely worth a roster spot as you wait for his inevitable return to the rotation. And believe me, it’ll happen at some point. Carlos Silva and Tom Gorzelanny are holding down starting jobs, and Zambrano is making close to $18M this year. There’s no way this move is permanent.

For Zambrano owners, there’s nothing more you can do than grind your teeth and wait out this temporary setback. He’ll gain RP eligibility soon enough, so that added roster flexibility is a nice little fringe benefit. If you don’t own Zambrano, now’s a great time to go out and try to buy low on him in a trade. The potential for high quality production in the second half is well worth the risk.

We’ll do a tiered approach here. It’s what we do.

Ervin Santana | SP | Los Angeles (54% owned)
While the ownership numbers may be perplexing (he’s owned in all of my leagues), there’s reason for hope when it comes to the other Santana (soon to be the other other Santana). Most of the signs are looking good for Santana – his strikeout rate is up, his walk rate is down, and he’s even sporting a career-high ground ball rate. The only worrisome thing might be the reduced effectiveness of his slider as measured by his linear weights. It can’t be the half-MPH that he’s lost on the pitch, can it? In any case, he’s benefiting from a career-best 38.9% contact rate on pitches outside the zone, which doesn’t seem like it can continue when seen in the face of his career 58.4% rate. Perhaps people will start whiffing a little more on his pitches in the zone (98.8% !). It’s a strange mix right now, but since he’s healthy he should be on more rosters.

Casey Kotchman | 1B | Seattle (6% owned)
Paradoxically, it took a move to one of the toughest parks in the league for Kotchman to break out his career-best ISO (.310). Of course, that number only stabilizes around 450 plate appearances, so we shouldn’t read too much into it. Instead, let’s look at the numbers that stabilize the quickest: swing rates. Because they are based on pitch-by-pitch data, swing rates have a larger sample size in the early going. Kotchman is swinging at a career-low rate (35% this year, 45.4% career), and this has lead to the best K/BB ratio of his career (1.5). The strikeout percentage is below 10% and good for 25th-best in the league in the early going. That sort of ueber-patience seems to be serving him well. Don’t buy into the power, but the patience may end up leading to a good batting average and good run production, given the dearth of offense in Seattle.

Bud Norris | SP | Houston (5% owned)
(I know, the tiers are a little off.) Ever since Cistulli wrote this masterpiece about Norris’ nice outside-the-zone whiff rate, he has been an interesting character here in the green-and-eggshell. The secondary statistics for Norris are actually sort of frightening – he has an otherworldly strikeout rate (14.09 K/9), a disastrous walk rate (8.22 BB/9), and an insert-bad-adjective here groundball rate (23.8%). Group these rates with his zero HR/9 and you have an early-season special – an ERA (3.52) between his FIP (2.60) and his xFIP (4.03). That might be a strange feat – if it were to happen over a full season. I’d say some of those fly balls will begin to leave Minute Maid park shortly and that the xFIP is the number to follow, but that’s still a decent number that deserves attention. Maybe Norris will split the difference between his good start and bad start the next time he climbs the hill.

Ownership numbers courtesy Yahoo Fantasy Baseball.