As the fourth overall pick in the 2001 draft, Gavin Floyd fell well short of expectations with the Philadelphia Phillies. The 6-5, 230 pound righty compiled -0.4 Wins Above Replacement with the Fightins from 2004-2006, then posted a 0.1 WAR season with the Chicago White Sox in 2007 following a December ’06 trade that landed Floyd and Gio Gonzalez on the South Side for Freddy Garcia.

Over the next two seasons, however, Floyd made marked progress. He managed a 4.56 expected FIP (xFIP) in 206.1 innings pitched in 2008, with 6.32 K/9 and 3.05 BB/9. He really emerged in 2009, improving greatly against left-handed batters while authoring a 3.69 xFIP in 193 IP. Floyd whiffed 7.6 batters per nine innings and walked 2.75 per nine.

Unfortunately, the 27-year-old’s 2010 campaign hearkens back to those nightmarish Phillies days–Floyd’s ERA during his first 45 innings is an even seven. Those who spent an early pick on Gavin are probably cursing enough to make Ozzie Guillen blush. Many have severed ties altogether, as Floyd’s Yahoo ownership rate has dipped to 55 percent. Look a little closer, though, and you’ll see a talented pitcher primed to bounce back.

It’s true that Floyd isn’t throwing as well as he did during his career-best ’09 season. But, he’s still showing the skills of a solid starter. Floyd has 7.6 K/9, and he has issued 3.4 BB/9. His ground ball rate is a career-high 50 percent, a positive development for a guy who has been plagued by the long ball in the past (career 1.33 HR/9)

Gavin has been plagued by a .381 batting average on balls in play, compared to a career .298 BABIP. Grounders generally have a higher BABIP than fly balls, but that 2010 mark is obscenely high and will drop.

He’s also stranding far fewer runners than usual. Floyd’s left on base rate is just 57.2 percent. During his big league career, he has stranded 68.3 percent of base runners. That’s below the 70-72% major league average, but even if Floyd struggles a bit from the stretch, that LOB rate should be closer to 70 percent than 60 percent moving forward. His 4.19 xFIP is much more appealing than that appalling ERA.

Floyd’s getting a few more swings on pitches off the plate (28.1 O-Swing% in 2010, compared to 27.5% in ’09; 25-27% MLB average), and his contact rates are largely unchanged. Batters are connecting 77.7 percent of the time this season, after making contact 77.8 percent last year (80-81% MLB average). Floyd is getting swinging strikes 9.4 percent, which is less than 2009 (9.9 percent) but still above the 8-8.5% major league average.

One facet of his game that Floyd could stand to improve is his control–his first pitch strike percentage, 60 percent in 2009, is down to 55.8 percent (58-59% MLB average). And, after hitting the strike zone with 48.2 percent of his pitches last season, Floyd has placed 45.1 percent of his offerings in the zone this year (48-51% MLB average). His cut fastball appears to be the biggest culprit, as he threw it for a strike 70.1 percent in ’09 but just half of the time in 2010 (66.7% MLB average).

He might not be an ace, but Floyd is a quality option in AL-only leagues and is worth a roster spot in most mixed leagues. If possible, snag him off the waiver wire or send a trade offer to a frustrated Floyd owner.

Last Sunday I was able to take in one of Tim Melville’s starts against the Potomac Nationals at the local Pfitzner Stadium. Melville’s obviously a big name and one of the top arms in Kansas City’s farm system so I made it a point to see him after returning home from a challenging set of final exams to wrap up the semester.

The Royals popped Melville in the fourth round of the 2008 draft after he fell considerably down the board due to signability concerns and a lackluster senior season at Holt High School. Rumor has it that his family sent out a letter to scouts before the draft instructing them what type of dollar amount it would take for Melville to sign. Teams appeared to scurry and it looked more and more likely that Melville would end up becoming a Tar Heel.

He almost did but the Royals ponied up and signed him to a well-above slot $1.25 million deal right before the signing deadline. Melville received the biggest bonus in the fourth round that year.

The Royals limited Melville to 100 innings during his first professional season in 2009 at low Class A Burlington. He made 21 starts and only averaged 4.2 innings per start. Melville’s ERA matched up well with his peripherals last year as he had a 3.98 FIP and struck out nearly a batter per inning. He didn’t display pin point precision as evidenced by his walk rate which hovered around 4.

Through seven starts before Sunday’s outing the 20-year-old’s ERA stood out like a sore thumb at 9.76. I have been following Melville’s box scores all season long and that number just hasn’t looked right. He still displayed a solid set of peripherals and was striking people out and not allowing an inordinate amount of home runs. But his control continued to be a problem for him and has plagued him through his first tour of the Carolina League. I came to the ballpark expecting to see Melville somehow lower that ugly ERA.

Melville came out of the gates firing. He caught the P-Nats lead off hitter, Steve Lombardozzi, looking and organizational solider, Brian Peacock, went down hacking. The Blue Rocks were on the road but Melville had a bunch of friends and family in the stands today. Their chants almost reminded me of being at a high school baseball game.

Melville and the Royals dodged a huge bullet in the second inning when third baseman, Tim Pahuta (AKA “The Big Pahuta” which has got to be one of the best nicknames in the minors), hit a rocket right back at Melville. Melville didn’t even try to make a play on the line drive and tried getting out of the way as quick as possible by dropping to the ground. He made it to the ground unscathed by mere instants which was a big sigh of relief. Especially for Melville’s collective friends and family behind the Wilmington dugout.

Melville has a great pitchers frame at 6-foot-5 and 210-pounds. The right hander has a great pitchers body that is likely closed to being maxed out and he easily passed the eye test for me. During his windup he brings his glove over his head and fires straight over the chute and easily creates downhill plane. He has clean mechanics and creates good balance in his delivery. Melville also repeats his delivery very well.

In the early innings Melville exhibited a plus fastball that sat in the 90-92 range with good life. I saw him spike 93 a few times as the game progressed. At times Melville’s command of his fastball escaped him and caused him to prolong opposing hitters at-bats. He walked two during his outing.

Melville also utilizes a nifty 12-6 curveball with good break that is definitely a plus pitch for me. I only saw him fail to get on top of it and hang the pitch a few times during the game and he used it quite often. It’s definitely his best secondary pitch and he isn’t afraid to pitch backwards to hitters and throw it for strike one.

Melville also has a big spread on his curveball. He threw the pitch ranging from 70-78 mph during the game and that isn’t a typo. His ability to take off or add a little velocity to his curveball was very impressive especially for a 20-year-old in his second professional season removed from high school.

Melville didn’t flash a third pitch very often during this outing. The progress of his changeup will be a big part of his development going forward. I see the big key to success for Melville being the command of his fastball. It can be a plus pitch but when his command goes his pitch count increases and he starts walking people. This likely attributes to his poor 5.43 walk rate this season.

Melville holds runners very well when they reach base. But he might be trying to hold them too well and shouldn’t let them become too big of a distraction and focus primarily on going after the hitter at the plate.

For the first time this season, Melville, almost completed six full innings. He was pulled after allowing a run and recording two outs in the sixth inning. Potomac only mustered four hits against Melville and scored two runs off of the right hander. Melville walked two and struck out five.

After the game Melville’s ERA fell to 8.64. His stronger set of peripherals (8.7 K/9, 5.43 BB/9, 0.81 HR/9) to date signify that his ERA obviously doesn’t tell the entire story (heck, when does ERA tell the entire story?) and the high A club’s defense isn’t doing him any favors either. Melville has a .373 BABIP this season.

Overall, I was very impressed with Melville. His sturdy frame and two plus pitches will bode well for him. There’s a variety of things to like about Melville. The command of his fastball and development of his changeup will be a big part of his development and route to the majors. He could take a big jump soon up prospect lists when/if those two aspects of his game improve. He’s only 20 and there’s an ample amount of time for him to figure those things out.

Don’t let Melville’s poor minor league numbers thus far this season fool you. He’s a legit arm and his perfect world projection is that of a number two starter if everything pans out exceptionally well. Since it’s unfair to expect prospects to erase all of their weaknesses I would say Melville most likely has the ceiling of a number three starter that chews up innings due to his durable frame. His numbers should improve as he advances up the minor league ladder and pitches in front of better defenses. I’d give him 2-3 years to work his way through the minors with an ETA of late 2012/2013. I’m expecting him to become a valuable commodity in keeper leagues and if you have the chance to get him cheaply you should act now while his numbers look disappointing.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Melville finds himself on a few top 100 prospect lists after this season. He only made one of the four (BA, Keith Law, FanGraphs, BP’s top 101) lists. Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus had him at #93 on his top 101.

SCOUTING TIDBITS

*1B Eric Hosmer-That lasik eye surgery really has done wonders.. While he went hitless in the game that I saw there were still good things to like. He has a good, athletic body. Hosmer has an imposing presence at the plate with a stance that’s slightly open. P-Nats starter, Brad Peacock, fed him a steady diet of fastballs away (he also got him to whiff against a solid breaking pitch) and Hosmer still put some good swings on them. He drilled a liner back into the catchers mask and just got under another that resulted in a pop that was in the air for nearly seven seconds…just another reminder that Hosmer’s raw power is still there despite only two homers on the year.

*C Derek Norris– Norris is a little short and stocky but the bat is impressive. He tracks pitches well and showed the ability to hit the ball to all fields. He singled off Melville in his first plate appearance. Norris DH’ed on Sunday but I saw him catch earlier in the week. It wasn’t pretty. His hands and receiving skills still need a bunch of work. Too many balls scooted by him to the backstop. He isn’t as bad as Jesus Montero back there but where do the Nats put him if he can’t stick behind the plate? Unfortunately, he can’t DH in Washington and a return to the hot corner where he played in high school doesn’t seem probable with franchise icon, Ryan Zimmerman, doing everything right at third.

*RHP Brad Peacock– Peacock opposed Melville on Sunday and some sloppy defense and cheap hits did him in during the 5th inning. He pitched much better than the box score indicated (4.2IP 5R 3BB 6K). Peacock has a simple, repeatable delivery. His fastball sits in the low 90’s and it’s an average to above-average pitch. He displayed fringy breaking stuff today. He could sniff the big leagues as a back of the rotation starter or swing man.

*OF Michael Burgess– He has big plus power and a nice plus arm in right field…but I’m just not a big believer here. He doesn’t move too well at all and he’s got a long swing. His pitch recognition needs work and Melville made him look silly in a four pitch at-bat. Melville fed him three breaking balls that Burgess swung and missed at each time. It didn’t look pretty. He’ll hit some baseballs a long way but I see his swing as an all or nothing proposition. If he doesn’t figure it out quick I could see him flaming out quickly. His best bet might be to try making it to the big leagues as a home run threat off the bench.

*C Salvador Perez– Perez is an advanced defender and he’s a good receiver. He’s 1.95 down to second base and I had him at 1.38 to third base on steal attempts. He’s a good, defensive minded catcher and organizations can always use those. He may become a back up catcher in the big leagues some day.

*OF Jamar Walton– He looks pretty good in a baseball uniform at 6-foot-4 and 195-pounds. The athletic body stands out but unfortunately for Walton…not much else tools wise does either…

*3B Tim Pahuta– He may not be much of a prospect and more like organizational fodder. But he does have two things going that really stand out about him. The Seton Hall product is 27-years-old and in high A ball! That’s awfully old and you’ve got to give the guy credit…he sure does have a plus name.

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I also have some more bittersweet news for you. I recently accepted an internship with a baseball team and this will be my last post for RotoGraphs. While I will miss the scene here I am very excited about my new position. I’ve always aspired to work for a team and this is another step in the right direction. I’ve had a great time writing here and sharing my analysis and opinions with all of you. It’s been a great experience for me and also a fantastic learning tool. The feedback has been great too.

I apologize for the sporadic posts over the past few months. If I had it my way I would have written much more over the past couple months but unfortunately academics kind of ran into the way. RotoGraphs has really picked up this season and I’m sorry to just be leaving the party now. I’m confident that the rest of the staff will do a great job. This is a great website for baseball analysis and it always seems to be getting better and better.

I would like to thank Marc Hulet and David Appelman for extending me this fantastic opportunity last November. David G, my fellow Duquesne Duke, was also instrumental in getting me over here to write. Much thanks to them and the rest of the RotoGraphs and FanGraphs staff for everything during my stay here.

Feel free to stay in touch via email or Twitter @danbudreika where you can find me talking about baseball, quotes, or life in general. Thanks for reading and I hope you all enjoy the remainder of the season. Be well!

Over his five full campaigns as a major league starter, Dan Haren has averaged 5.1 Wins Above Replacement per season. During the past three calendar years, Haren’s 14 WAR rank behind only Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, Zack Greinke, Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia. The 29 year-old D-Backs ace combines power and precision, relying heavily upon high-80’s cutters, high-70’s curves and mid 80’s splitters that make Mark Grace swoon. And, with affordable salaries for the next four seasons ($8.25M this year, $12.75M each in 2011-2012, $15.5M club option for 2013), Haren’s a bargain, too.

At first blush, something appears off in Haren’s 2010 performance. In 59.2 innings pitched, the former Cardinal and Athletic has a mediocre 4.83 ERA. That’s his highest mark since he cut his teeth as a rookie with St. Louis back in 2003. Is Haren slumping? In a word, no.

In his first nine starts of the year, the righty has punched out a career-best 9.35 batters per nine innings. He’s not quite showing the Greg Maddux-esque walk rate from 2009 (1.49 BB/9), but issuing 2.26 free passes per nine frames is superb nonetheless.

Going to his cutter (31 percent) and splitter (19 percent) more often this season, Haren has induced swings on pitches outside of the strike zone 36 percent of the time. That’s the best mark of his big league tenure and tops all MLB starters logging at least 30 innings pitched.

Haren is also missing more lumber than ever: opponents have made contact with 84.6% of his in-zone pitches (88.2% MLB average) and 73.9% of his offerings overall (80.9% MLB average). Those are the lowest Z-Contact and Contact rates of Haren’s career. His in-zone contact rate is one of the 15 lowest among starters, and the overall contact rate sits in the top five.

So, why the high ERA? Haren is getting hosed by a .357 batting average on balls in play (.302 career). He has been unlucky in terms of stranding base runners and surrendering home runs on fly balls as well. Haren’s left on base rate in 2010 is 66.9, compared to a 73.1% career average, and his home run/fly ball rate is 13.1% (10.8% career average).

Haren has been his usual, filthy self–his 3.21 expected FIP (xFIP) ranks 7th among starters, trailing just Lincecum, Halladay, James Shields, Lee, Josh Johnson and Ricky Romero. Some misfortune on balls put in play, a lower-than-usual strand rate and a couple extra round-trippers have obscured another fantastic season. Don’t worry about Haren–he’s just fine. Now, about that bullpen..

Last week we talked about Felipe Lopez coming back and Brendan Ryan struggling. We recommended picking up Lopez because he would probably take the starting shortstop job. Now that he’s back, and it’s looking like that’s the case, we’re the ones looking stupid for not having followed our own advice. And yes, that’s the royal ‘we.’ On to this week’s recommendations.

Casey Blake (47% owned)
Bet you didn’t know that Casey Blake was 36 years old, did you? The fact that he debuted old (30 years old) isn’t good news for the bell curve of his career. We do know that players that debut later usually leave the league earlier, too. That seems to be the case whether that’s because players that debut later need to be closer to their peak in order to be MLB-quality, and therefore drop out earlier as they age because they fall from that peak level, or whether it’s for some other reason. Well, Blake has had a decidedly okay run, but things aren’t looking great. He’s got a six-year low in ISO and a career high in strikeout rate. It’s not luck that’s keeping him down, at least not batted-ball luck – his BABIP is .291. Instead, he’s seeing a career-low of pitches in the zone and swinging at a career high of pitches outside the zone. His contact rate is at a career low. Hmmm… why would you want to pick him up again? Well, because .260-hitting corner infielders with a little bit of power don’t just grow on trees. In certain leagues, he’ll be useful. In just such a league of mine he was dropped. Just don’t go trading your starting 3B because you picked him up is all I’m saying.

Jim Thome (5% owned)
Thome’s ownership levels are surprisingly low for a guy that’s blasted five home runs in only 75 at-bats. The good news is that he’s still his old three-true-outcome self – walking (17.6%), striking out (27.6%) and jacking dongers (.267 ISO). Though he’s also seeing a career-low pitches in the zone, the rest of his swing rate statistics are mostly in line with his career. It seems that he’s in a crowded house, but 75 at bats over 39 games is on pace for about 311 at-bats, and if he keeps hitting home runs, he’ll get more time against righties, against whom he’s done well this year (.280/.438/.600) and career (.294/.429/.614). If you have a space on your bench and can be vigilant about who is starting in Minny on a daily basis, Thome will collect you some home runs for sure.

Marc Rzepczynski (1% owned)
Maybe this is my ‘hunch,’ but Rzep/Scrabble just made his first rehab start today and might join the Jays within a week. Then again, he gave up nine runs in 2 1/3 innings in that re-hab start and Brandon Morrow and Brett Cecil are enough a part of the future and have shown enough this year that they should keep their jobs even when Scrabble returns. So that leaves Dana Eveland as the crux of the argument. Certainly his ERA (4.98) doesn’t argue for his inclusion in the rotation, and his secondary stats are even worse (4.15 K/9, 5.19 BB/9, 5.58 xFIP). Doesn’t seem like too much is in Scrabble’s way. As long as he can find his old groundballing (51.2% last year) and strikeout (8.8 K/9 last year) ways, he’ll be a much better solution. Hopefully the Jays will also see things this way.

Ownership numbers from Yahoo Fantasy Sports.

When the New York Mets opened the 2010 season with top prospect Jenrry Mejia, a 20-year-old righty with scarce experience above A-Ball, in the big league bullpen instead of in a minor league rotation, the move was viewed as a short-sighted play by a GM and manager with tenuous job security.

The Mets have apparently changed course, however. According to ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin, Mejia will return to the minors to get stretched out as a starter. With the oft-pummeled Oliver Perez banished to the ‘pen and Jon Niese at least temporarily sidelined by a hamstring injury (R.A. Dickey to the rescue!), New York is short on starting options and hopes that Baseball America’s #56 preseason prospect can return to take some turns later this summer.

Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2007 for just $16,500, Mejia split the 2009 campaign between the High-A Florida State League and the Double-A Eastern League. The 6-0, 160 pound (listed) Mejia struck out 7.9 batters, walked 2.9 per nine and had a 61.7 percent ground ball rate in 50.1 FSL frames. In Double-A, he increased his whiff rate (9.5 K/9) and got plenty of grounders (56.3 GB%) in 44.1 innings, though Mejia issued more walks (4.7 BB/9).

Entering 2010, Baseball America described Mejia as possessing 90-96 MPH gas (touching 98 MPH) with “so much cutting and sinking action that it befuddles hitters.” BA also liked his low-to-mid-80’s changeup, while also noting that the off-speed pitch was inconsistent and that his breaking stuff needed plenty of work.

As a reliever in the majors with a praiseworthy fastball and rudimentary secondary stuff, Mejia did what you would expect: he reared back and fired. He used his heater (averaging 94.4 MPH on the radar gun) about 81 percent of the time, supplementing it with a high-70’s curveball (10 percent) and a mid-80’s change (nine percent).

In 17.1 low-leverage innings (0.84 Leverage Index), Mejia had 7.27 K/9, 4.15 BB/9 a 58.5 ground ball rate and a 4.23 expected FIP (xFIP). He had some issues getting ahead in the count, as a sub-50 first pitch strike percentage attests, but Mejia simply holding his own is a testament to his talent.

This is the right move for the Mets–Mejia’s long-term value to the franchise is considerably higher as a potential front-line starter than it is as a reliever. He needs innings to build stamina, hone his control and develop his change and slider.

Similarly, Mejia’s returning to a starting role should be viewed as a positive for fantasy owners. His high K/high ground ball skill set makes him highly coveted in keeper leagues. It’s easier to scrounge for saves that it is to find a premium starting prospect.

Not that long ago, Ricky Romero was known to Blue Jays fans as the answer to the following trivia question: “who did Toronto take with the sixth pick in the 2005 draft instead of Troy Tulowitzki?”

While Tulo established himself as a top prospect at a premium position, Romero posted so-so-numbers on the farm. The Cal State Fullerton lefty struck out seven batters per nine innings, while walking 3.8 per nine and posting a 48.6 percent ground ball rate. Prior to 2009: Baseball America gave Romero the following assessment:

Late bloomer or bust? That’s the question surrounding Romero, whom the Blue Jays selected sixth overall in 2005 and signed for a club-record $2.4 million. He has spent the bulk of the past three seasons in Double-A and been passed by several lefties in the system…Romero still needs to show more consistency to reach his ceiling as a No. 3 or 4 starter.

While there are clearly worse scenarios than ending up with a first-rounder who’s a mid-to-back-end starter, the Jays likely had higher aspirations. Since that scouting report was published, however, Romero has taken his game to a different level.

In 2009, Romero turned in a quality rookie season. Tossing 178 innings, he posted rates of 7.13 K/9, 3.99 BB/9 and had a 54 percent ground ball rate. His expected FIP (xFIP) was 4.09. This year? He’s pitching like a bona fide ace. In 56.1 frames, the 25-year-old has 9.43 K/9, 3.36 BB/9, a 55.9 GB% and a 3.12 xFIP that ranks 7th among starters with at least 30 IP.

During his rookie year, 48.4 percent of Romero’s pitches were within the strike zone (the MLB average is 48-49 percent) and he garnered swings on pitches off the plate 24 percent (25-27% MLB average). In 2010, Romero has tried to bait hitters into expanding their zones, and it’s working. Placing just 44 percent of his offerings over the plate, he has induced outside swings 31.2 percent.

Romero’s contact and swinging strike rates were above average last year, but he’s in elite territory so far in 2010. Opponents put the bat on the ball 77.9 percent in ’09, compared to the 80-81% MLB average. That contact rate is down to 72.7 percent this season, and only Tim Lincecum, Brandon Morrow and Clayton Kershaw have been more adept at avoiding lumber. Romero’s swinging strike rate, 9.6 percent during his first foray in the majors, is 11.9 percent in 2010 (8-9% MLB average).

One of the keys to his success is a fantastic changeup. On May 15, Romero whiffed 12 Rangers batters on his way to a complete game shutout. From this AP article, here’s Texas 3B Michael Young describing Romero’s off-speed pitch:

It has kind of a split action to it. It’s not a straight change, it kind of has a little dive down in the zone. It’s a good pitch, it’s a plus pitch for him and you could tell he really had a lot of confidence in it.

Young’s observations look spot-on. According to Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X Tool at texasleaguers.com, Romero has gone to his 84-85 MPH change nearly one-third of the time. The bottom falls out of that pitch, and it moves more like a splitter. The average changeup has 6.1 inches of vertical movement, meaning it drops 6.1 inches less than a pitch thrown without spin. By contrast, Romero’s change has -0.3 inches of vertical movement–it falls 0.3 inches more than a pitch thrown without spin. Batters are swinging at that changeup 53.6 percent (48.3 MLB average), and are whiffing 20.7 percent (12.1 MLB average). That’s, as Young said, a plus pitch.

In 234.1 major league innings, Romero has a 3.86 xFIP. He misses bats, has decent control and induces ground balls by the bushel. Yet, he is still available in nearly one-fifth of Yahoo leagues (81 percent ownership rate). Romero likely won’t keep up this pace all season, but he has the skill set to remain a well above-average starter. Snatch this guy up if he’s still on the waiver wire.

Starting pitcher notes from around the MLBiverse…

Jeff Francis | Rockies

For the first time over than 20 months, Francis took to a big league mound yesterday, limiting the Nationals to just one run over seven innings at home. Finesse lefties aren’t prime fantasy pieces, and at his best Francis was a low-4.00’s ERA guy with mediocre WHIP’s and strikeout numbers. Coming back from major shoulder surgery makes him an even riskier proposition. Regardless, he’s is owned in just 5% of Yahoo! leagues, and has some value as a 5th or 6th starter in an NL-only or deep mixed league. If you’re willing to roll the dice, just make sure you watch the matchups until he proves effective.

Javier Vazquez | Yankees

Even though he pitched well against the Tigers last week (two runs and seven strikeouts in seven innings), the Yanks are again skipping Vazquez’s turn through the rotation. Part of that has to do with keeping him away from the Red Sox, but it also has to do with creating better matchups for the rest of the starting staff. Barring weather and/or injury, Vazquez’s next five starts will come against the Mets, Indians, Orioles, Orioles again, and the Astros. That’s a nice little stretch.

ZiPS rest of the season projection calls for a 3.89 ERA with close to a strikeout per inning, but even if you’re pessimistic, an ERA in the low-4.00’s is within reach from here on out. Vazquez is still owned in 74% of Yahoo! leagues, but you’ve still got a chance to go out and try to buy low in a trade.

Tyson Ross | Athletics

Justin Duchscherer’s return from the disabled list has been derailed, possibly costing him the rest of the season, so long man Tyson Ross could get an opportunity to stay in the rotation. His spot start against the Angels over the weekend wasn’t pretty (three runs in 3.2 IP), but he gets a mulligan because his 62 pitches were a season high (by 12) and he’s still just getting back into starting shape. His minor league career features a good number of strikeouts (7.5 K/9) and an absurd ground ball rate (57.5% according to minorleaguesplits.com), and those skills have approximately translated in his tiny big league sampling (22.2 IP, 6.75 K/9, 55.4 GB%). A low-4.00’s ERA is possible the rest of the way with a little help of Oakland’s park.

If Ross is bumped back into the bullpen, Vin Mazzaro is the obvious candidate to assume the vacated rotation spot. Both are available in basically every league.

The Mets

We’re going to have to give the Mets their own section here. A day after announcing that Oliver Perez had been demoted to the bullpen, Jonathon Niese left his start with a hamstring injury. Long reliever Hisanori Takahashi was a candidate to take Perez’s rotation spot, but he had to come in relief of Niese, so he’s no longer an option. They have R.A. Dickey pitching well in Triple-A (~3.00 FIP) and he lines up perfectly to take Ollie’s place on Wednesday, and then Takahashi comes back into play for Niese’s Friday start. Either way, I just wasted about 100 words to tell you that the Mets’ rotation is a mess and other than Johan Santana and maybe Mike Pelfrey, none of them are rosterable.

Just Because…

Zach already touched on Max Scherzer’s demotion, and for now he’ll be replaced by Armando Galarraga. His flukiness has been well documented, so don’t fall into the trap of thinking he can repeat his flashy 2008 ERA. The best way he can help your fantasy team is if someone else takes the bait.

Here is the latest update to Week Seven 2-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

NYY – CC Sabathia
DET – Justin Verlander
ARI – Billy Buckner

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

NYY – Javier Vazquez
COL – Jhoulys Chacin
DET – Jeremy Bonderman
MIL – David Bush
WAS – John Lannan
ARI – Cesar Valdez

Sabathia is coming off his worst start of the season, as he allowed 9 H and 6 ER in 6 IP versus the Tigers last time out. Overall, the strikeouts are down and the homers are up for the big lefty. Sabathia’s 6.41 K/9 is his lowest since 2002 while his 14.3 HR/FB rate is the highest of his career. And the home runs are not due to his home park, as Sabathia has made four of his six starts and allowed six of his 7 HR on the road. His SwStr%, which was 13.9 in 2008, sits at 9.2 here in 2010.

After allowing 10 ER in his first 10 IP this year, Verlander is 4-2 with a 2.56 ERA over his last six starts. In that frame he has 16 BB and 37 Ks in 38.2 IP and has allowed just1 HR. The past three years, Verlander has seen his GB/FB ratio deteriorate, as he has allowed more and more fly balls. But this year the trend has stopped, as his 1.14 GB/FB mark is his best since 2006. Verlander still averages in the mid 90s with his fastball, but he is throwing more off-speed stuff this year. His slider, change and curve have all been more effective pitches so far in 2010 than they were a year ago, when Verlander won 19 games.

Buckner gets the call from Triple-A, where he was 3-1 with a 3.53 ERA at Reno. Surprisingly, Buckner had a 5.6 K/9 after having an 8.4 mark with the same team a season ago. Buckner has 125.1 IP in the majors and has had trouble with the gopher ball. He has a 16.4 HR/FB rate in the majors. Buckner does do a good job of getting ground balls, with a 1.47 GB/FB mark in his time in the majors. He is not overpowering but has a full repertoire of pitches, including a curve, change and cutter.

Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Max Scherzer was demoted to Triple-A Toledo today, along with second baseman Scott Sizemore.

Scherzer, who was acquired from the D’Backs by the Tigers this offseason as part of the Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson deal, did not impress in his brief time in the AL. Scherzer struck out 9.19 batters per nine innings last year, but is down to a 5.57 K/9 through his eight starts in 2010.

He has seen a touch of bad luck, with a .327 BABIP agaisnt and 58% LOB%. However, Scherzer has had trouble with balls in play for his short MLB career, with a .323 BABIP against in over 268 innings.

While his ERA is 7.29, his xFIP is only 5.04. Our updated ZiPS projections have Scherzer finishing the year with a 5.16 ERA. MLB.com’s Jason Beck says that Scherzer has had problems with his mechanics, so hopefully he can work things out in the minors and return relatively shortly. If you have Scherzer in a keeper league, you might as well hold on to him during this stretch, otherwise it is safe to drop him.

As far as Sizemore goes, his demotion isn’t even the biggest news surrounding the Tigers 2B job. The team says that Carlos Guillen will be the everyday second baseman when he returns from the DL in the next week or two.

Guillen hasn’t played 2B since 1999 (when he was with the Mariners), but he did play 132 games at SS back in 2007, so he isn’t that far removed from the middle infield. In real life, UZR was not kind to Guillen at SS in ’07, or at 3B in ’08, so we’ll see how long Guillen can hold down the job at 2B. For fantasy owners, as long as he plays enough games to gain eligibility, it doesn’t matter how long he sticks. ZiPS has Guillen hitting .280 the rest of the season, and adding in 10 homers and 5 steals. Getting those numbers out of your second baseman is not the worst thing in the world.

Focusing on Sizemore, a .268 BABIP and 3.6% HR/FB rate hurt his value and he ended up with awRC+ of only 60. He should be able to return to AAA and hit very well once again, forcing the Tigers to consider bringing him back up later on in the season. But, if Guillen plays well at 2B, there may not be room from him.

Since he broke into the big leagues back in 1999, Tim Hudson has quietly ranked among the better starting pitchers in the majors. According to Sean Smith’s historical Wins Above Replacement numbers, Hudson racked up nearly 41 WAR from ’99 to 2009. With a couple more solid seasons, the former two-way Auburn star will rank among the top 100 pitchers in career WAR.

Hudson’s combination of quality (career 3.81 FIP) and quantity (he has topped the 200-inning mark six times during his career) was interrupted in 2008, as the undersized righty had Tommy John surgery in August of that year. Hudson returned to a major league mound in September of 2009, and the 34-year-old looked none the worse for wear.

In 42.1 innings, Hudson had 6.38 K/9, 2.76 BB/9 and a 3.47 expected FIP (xFIP), getting ground balls at the highest rate of his career to that point (62.2 percent). Again showcasing one of the deepest arsenals among starters, Hudson posted a 9.5 percent swinging strike rate (9.3 percent career average, 8-9% MLB average) and he didn’t dawdle, either: he placed 52.7 percent of his pitches in the strike zone (52.5% career average, 48-51% MLB average) and got first pitch strikes two-thirds of the time (57.8% career average, 58-59% MLB average). In other words, it was vintage Hudson.

Encouraged by Hudson’s work, the Braves signed him to a three-year, $28 million contract extension, with a $9 million club option for 2013. So far in 2010, Hudson has thrown 44.1 frames and has a spiffy 2.64 ERA. Despite that ERA, his season has been a mixed bag.

The difference between Hudson’s ERA and xFIP (4.57) is nearly two runs. He has benefitted from a .234 batting average on balls in play, and his 85.6 percent rate of stranding base runners is way above the 70-72% big league average and Hudson’s career 73.8% strand rate.

He’s doing a tremendous job of keeping the ball on the ground, with a new career-high 66.2 GB% that tops all starters. However, Hudson isn’t missing bats or painting the corners like he usually does. His swinging strike rate is down to 5.7 percent, and his percentage of pitches within the zone is 44.9. Hudson is inducing first pitch contact or getting ahead in the count 0-1 just 50.6 percent of the time. Given those figures, it’s no surprise that he’s striking out just 3.45 batters per nine innings and walking 3.65 per nine.

The sample sizes aren’t huge, but Hudson’s main offerings aren’t hitting their spots or fooling batters as much in 2010 as they did last September and early October:

I made bold the most marked changes between ’09 and ’10 Hudson. His four-seam fastball, changeup/splitter and slider are all getting fewer strikes and whiffs this season.

Hudson owners should watch his control and whiff rates. He’s not pitching poorly, but that 2.64 ERA is misleading. If he continues to garner so few swings and misses and has a merely average walk rate, Hudson loses his fantasy appeal.