Ah, a Friday before a long weekend rolls around, and it should be time for a waiver wire piece. How many of us are just furiously setting our lineups for a weekend away, though? Let’s instead take a look at a pitcher giving some people fits this year.

Brian Matusz is only owned in 24% of Yahoo leagues, and for good reason – he has had some clear faults that are plaguing him this year. While his strikeout rates (7.66 last year, 7.41 this year) and walk rates (2.82 last year, 3.29 this year) have been largely similar, and it’s easy to point to his inflated BABIP (.370) as the reason for the poor ERA this year, there is clearly more going on. Even taking into account his poor-ish strand rate (63.9%), ZiPs RoS calls for a 4.70 ERA, and it looks like we can blame his groundball rate for a good portion of that.

Matusz is only inducing 32.8% of his contact on the ground, and that is good for second-worst in the league (to Kevin Slowey). It’s not good to be a fly-ball pitcher in the American League, and in Baltimore in particular (1.616 park factor for home runs so far this year). There are some mitigating circumstances in this case, though. For one, Matusz was not a worm-burner extraordinaire in the minors, but he did put up an okay 48.1% career groundball percentage in his short time passing through the system. Also, only five qualifying pitchers in baseball last year had a groundball rate under 35%. The message there is that either Matusz will induce more groundballs or he won’t qualify for the ERA title.

Helpful, eh? Well, here’s something more interesting: it may have to do with his pitching mix and possibly his curveball in particular. That may seem strange to say about a pitch that he has only thrown about 10% of the time over his career, but the curveball was also his only positive pitch by linear weights this year. Why is he throwing less often this year if it was, by at least one statistic, the best pitch he had last year?

It seems he’s struggling with it. Last year the pitch found the strike zone 58.3% of the time and got 8.3% whiffs according to Texas Leaguers. This year those numbers are 52.5% and 6.1% accordingly. Since 8.5-9% is usually average for whiff rate, his curveball went from average to below-average in one offseason. Then again, his changeup is getting 21.7% whiffs this year, which is elite. Perhaps he really should just be throwing the changeup more. If so, the news that he’s throwing the changeup 18% of the time this year versus 12% of the time last year should be good news (according to Texas Leaguers / MLB data).

In any case, we have a guy with an above-average ability to strike people out, average control, and at least one elite pitch by whiff rates. Those good qualities are balanced by a poor groundball rate, and a pitching mix in flux. Here’s a bet that he does figure out that mix, brings that groundball rate into ‘average’ territory, the luck stats regress toward the mean, and Matusz magically becomes a better pitcher. That pitcher may only be a matchups pitcher in mixed leagues right now, but deep keeper league managers should take heart. There’s something to like about Matusz still.

This past off-season, the Los Angeles Dodgers shipped outfielder Juan Pierre to the Chicago White Sox for pitching prospects Jon Link and John Ely. Pierre is playing good D on the South Side, but his wretched hitting (.254/.305/.286, .285 wOBA) makes him a sub-optimal starter. Ely, meanwhile, made his major league debut in late April and has since made opposing hitters look like Pierre clones — batters have a .226/.260/.301 triple-slash against the Matthew McConaughey doppelganger. Who is this guy, and will he continue to produce for L.A.?

A product of Miami (Ohio) University, Ely was popped in the third round of the 2007 draft. At the time the Pale Hose picked him, Baseball America gave the following assessment of Ely:

Ely is just 6-foot-1 and 190 pounds, and he has a head jerk in his maximum-effort delivery. His stuff is hard to argue with, however. His 89-94 mph fastball and his vastly improved changeup both qualify as plus pitches, and his curve is an average offering. Though he lacks smooth mechanics, he throws strikes and has a resilient arm that never has given him problems.

After getting his feet wet in the pros in rookie ball that summer (56 IP, 9 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 3.50 FIP), Ely made his full-season debut at High-A Winston-Salem in 2008. The former RedHawk attacked Carolina League hitters, striking out 8.3 per nine innings, walking 2.85 and posting a 4.02 FIP in 145.1 innings pitched. Though he served up 1.11 home runs per nine frames, Ely kept the ball on the ground with a 50.2 GB%. Following the season, BA praised Ely’s tumbling changeup and well-placed 88-94 MPH fastball, but cautioned that his curveball lacked consistency and that “there’s a lot of effort in his delivery.”

Bumped up to Double-A Birmingham in 2009, Ely had 7.2 K/9, 2.88 BB/9, 0.52 HR/9 and a 3.33 FIP in 156.1 innings of work. He continued to induce grounders, with a 50.5 GB%. Prior to 2010, Baseball America noted that Ely’s fastball rarely cracked 90 MPH anymore, but contended that “his mid-70’s changeup is an equalizer.” Some concerns were voiced about his lack of a third consistent pitch — he experimented with a cut fastball/slider during the ’09 season to better handle lineups the second and third time around.

Ely opened this season at Triple-A Albuquerque, where he compiled a 12/8 K/BB ratio and allowed 6 runs in 18 IP. During his first six starts with the Dodgers, covering 39 innings, the 24-year-old has 7.38 K/9, 1.38 BB/9 and a 3.32 xFIP.

True to the scouting reports, Ely isn’t lighting up radar guns — his fastball is averaging 87.9 MPH. However, he’s not using the pitch much (about 32 percent), and when he does, he gets strikes (70.1 percent, 64.4% MLB average). Ely’s bread-and-butter is his changeup. According to Pitch F/X data from texasleaguers.com, he has pulled the string about 41 percent of the time. The change has garnered a strike 74.2 percent (60.7% MLB average), and it has been whiffed at 21.6 percent (12.6% MLB average). He’s also mixing in mid-80’s sliders/cutters, as well as a slooow 70 MPH curve.

Despite his modest stuff, Ely has managed to get swinging strikes 9.1 percent to this point (8-8.5% MLB average), while getting batters to chase his pitches out of the zone 29.1% (27.7% MLB average).

Heading into the season, neither ZiPS (5.53 K/9, 4.11 BB/9, 1.35 HR/9, 5.29 FIP) nor CHONE (6.7 K/9, 4.25 BB/9, 1.58 HR/9, 5.39 FIP) liked Ely’s chances of making a positive contribution at the big league level. Excellent start aside, owners should approach Ely with realistic expectations. Given his good, not great minor league track record and finesse repertoire, it would be best to view Ely as more of a pitcher capable of delivering league-average production than a breakout prospect.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week Nine.

Jeremy Bonderman – After a rough April, Bonderman has rebounded with a strong May, posting a 1.33 ERA with 26 Ks and 7 BB in 27 IP. But it has not translated into Wins, as Bonderman picked up one victory in May and has a 2-2 record overall. Look for Bonderman to continue his strong pitching with matchups this week against the Indians and Royals, two teams with a combined 37-56 record. He could double his win total this week.

Rich Harden – It has been a roller coaster ride for Harden in his first season in Texas. At various times this year, Harden has had troubles with BB, HR and BABIP. The overall effect has been both a FIP and xFIP higher than his 5.14 ERA. Harden has a very good 8.82 K/9, but that is down from last year’s 10.91 rate. Additionally, he has a career high 54.2 FB%. So, while his HR/FB rate is a lower than average 9.1 percent, he still has allowed 7 HR in 49 IP. Bottom line, Harden is not pitching anywhere close to how he did in the second half of 2009, so do not risk him being active in a two-start week.

Ricky Nolasco – The story of the Spring was how Ricky Nolasco did not give up a walk until his final appearance. His control has carried over into the regular season, as Nolasco’s 1.60 BB/9 is the seventh-best mark in the majors. And while he is allowing fewer walks, he is also striking out fewer batters, over three per nine compared to a season ago. Not only is he allowing more balls in play, Nolasco’s FB% is up too, checking in at 44.1%. The end result is an ERA of 4.65. While he has been unlucky to the tune of 0.55 by both FIP and xFIP, Nolasco is not having the impact year many predicted. This week he faces the Brewers and Mets. Lifetime he is winless with an 11.81 ERA against Milwaukee and is 4-6 with a 5.62 ERA against New York so leave him on the bench if you have other options.

Ervin Santana – After starting the season 0-2 when he allowed 9 ER in 11.2 IP, Santana has been a much better pitcher. In his last six games he has thrown five Quality Starts. Santana’s K/9 is up to 8.09 for the season. He has been lucky with an 82.2 percent strand rate but he has favorable matchups this week against Kansas City and Seattle. While both of those starts are on the road, Santana has a 3.06 road ERA this year.

Hisanori Takahashi – The Japanese veteran started his career in the U.S. in long relief but did so well he earned a shot in the rotation, where he has pitched 12 scoreless innings. It remains to be seen if Takahashi will continue his success his second time through the league, but this week he gets a road start in Petco against a Padres team that has yet to face him and a home start against the Marlins. Takahashi is 4-0 with a 2.00 ERA in Citi Field, so he is a good pickup for his two-start week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week Nine are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lincecum, Jimenez, Verlander, Garza, Billingsley, Oswalt, Hudson, J. Garcia, Hanson, Pettitte, Liriano, Lackey, Vazquez, Buehrle, Ely, Arroyo, Fister, Myers, Blanton, Matusz, Vargas, Morrow, Blackburn, Correia, Cahill, Talbot, Gorzelanny, Hochevar, Robertson, Westbrook, Narveson, Ohlendorf, Bush, R. Lopez, Bannister, Atilano, Stammen.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week Seven pitchers and how they fared.

Ely – Advised to start. 2 W, 11 Ks, 2.77 ERA, 1.077 WHIP (2 starts)
Kuroda – Advised to start. W, 7 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.250 WHIP (2)
Matsuzaka – Advised to sit. W, 8 Ks, 4.97 ERA, 1.342 WHIP (2)
Pavano – Advised to start. 7 Ks, 7.50 ERA, 1.417 WHIP (2)
Pelfrey – Advised to sit. 2W, 8 Ks, 1.98 ERA, 1.244 WHIP

The Houston Astros don’t have much to celebrate these days. The club owns a 16-30 record, with a -73 run differential. They’re old, expensive and franchise players like Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman no longer figure to bring back top-shelf prospects in a trade. Years of player development neglect has left Houston with a dilapidated farm system boasting little outside of RHP Jordan Lyles, SS Jiovanni Mier and C Jason Castro. It could be years before the Astros emerge from the depths of the NL Central standings.

Right-handed starter Bud Norris was supposed to be one of the few Houston youngsters to make a positive impact on the big league club. A sixth round pick out of Cal Poly back in 2006, Norris notched 9.5 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in the minors, and he posted a 4.38 xFIP in 11 appearances (10 starts) with the Astros in 2009. Heading into 2010, I mentioned Norris (as well as Felipe Paulino) as a draft day sleeper:

CHONE projects Norris to compile a 4.40 FIP in 2010, with 8.43 K/9, 4.14 BB/9 and 1.14 HR/9. He’ll miss bats, and he could be a nice addition to Houston’s staff if he can rein in the walks and not allow hitters to put that Minute Maid train in harm’s way.

At first glance, it looks like CHONE’s projection whiffed worse than Tommy Manzella at a slider. In 43.2 innings pitched, Norris has a 6.80 ERA. A closer inspection reveals reasons for optimism and continued frustration. The 25-year-old is far from a polished product, but his underlying skills suggest he’s still worth monitoring.

First, the good. Norris has whiffed 11.13 batters per nine innings this season, second-highest among starting pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched (Brandon Morrow is first). Bud’s garnering swinging strikes 10.9 percent of the time (8-8.5% MLB average), and his 73.8% contact rate is well below the 80-81% big league average.

But while Norris has often been dominant, his control remains scattershot. He has issued 5.36 BB/9, with just 43.8% of his pitches crossing the dish (48-51% MLB average in recent years). Bud’s getting behind hitters more than most, with a 56.6% rate of first pitch strikes. The big league average sits around 58%.

Even though Norris is being far too generous with the free passes, his xFIP is a useful 4.00. So, why is his ERA 2.8 runs higher?

For one, Bud has a .400 batting average on balls put in play. His line drive rate (25.6%) is very high, but it’s hard to draw any firm conclusions from that figure at this point. Even if you accept the premise that batters scorch the Norris offerings that they do make contact with, there’s no way that hits on balls in play continue to fall as if Bud were facing a team of Ty Cobbs. ZiPS projects a .334 BABIP for the rest of 2010. Norris has also stranded just 58.9% of base runners, well south of his 78 LOB% in 2009 and the typical 70-72% range for big league pitchers.

Right now, Norris is an aggravating blend of power and imprecision. He has also yet to prove that he can handle the workload of a major league starter — he missed time in 2008 with an elbow strain, was shut down a bit early last September with shoulder fatigue and he’ll apparently miss his scheduled start this Saturday due to biceps tendinitis.

With the injury concerns and inconsistency, Bud’s clearly not worth a roster spot right now. But don’t totally write him off. Beneath all the ugliness, there’s talent here.

Last year the baseball world was going crazy over Zack Greinke and deservedly so. After his start on May 26th, here was his fantasy line:

8 W, 0.84 ERA, 81 Ks, 0.88 WHIP

Flash forward to 2009 and check out Ubaldo Jimenez through the same time span:

9 W, 0.88 ERA, 61 Ks, 0.925 WHIP

Greinke was a shade better but nevertheless we as baseball fans should be more wowed by Jimenez than we have been. Here on FanGraphs, we have had just one article between the fantasy side and the mainland on Jimenez, and that was a piece by R.J. Anderson that talked about four pitchers with ERAs under 1.00 in April. So it is like ¼ of a story on Jimenez.

Jimenez has been a fantastic fantasy pitcher so far in 2010. CBS Sports ranks him as the top fantasy player overall, as does Last Player Picked and the RotoTimes Player Rater.

My favorite Jimenez stat is his ERA+, which currently stands at 515. Of course with an ERA that low, you would imagine that his FIP and xFIP would tell a different story. While his ERA is 0.88 his FIP is 2.71 and his xFIP is 3.58, which still ranks 16th among qualified pitchers.

RoS ZiPS does not anticipate Jimenez coming anywhere close to his current pace. It projects an 11-9 record with a 3.84 ERA going forward. Those numbers seem pessimistic to me but last year Greinke went 8-7 with a 2.80 ERA and 161 Ks from May 27th through the end of the season.

My WAG on Jimenez for the rest of the season is:

13 Wins
2.50 ERA
125 Ks
1.200 WHIP

In the comments section, leave your projections for Jimenez from now until the end of the year. In the offseason, I will do a follow-up piece and acknowledge the person who made the best fantasy projection for Jimenez before his May 31st start.

The fourth overall pick in the 2004 draft, Jeff Niemann took a his sweet time reaching the majors. Niemann, a towering 6-9, 280 pound righty, stuck out over a batter per inning on the farm, but shoulder problems stunted his progress. Entering 2009, he was 26, out of minor league options and had all of 16 big league innings to his name.

After posting a sub-four ERA as a full-time starter with the Rays in ’09, Niemann has seemingly stepped up his game in 2010. He owns a 2.54 ERA in 56.2 frames. Is Niemann finally pitching like the ace that the Rays envisioned when the team handed him a $5.2 million bonus and a major league contract back in ’04? Color me skeptical.

Last year, Niemann’s expected FIP (xFIP), based on K’s, walks and a normalized home run/fly ball rate, was 4.53. In 2010, its…4.49. He struck out 6.23 batters per nine innings in ’09, walking 2.94 per nine and posting a 40.5 GB%. This year, Niemann has traded some punch outs for a few less walks and a few more grounders — he has 5.72 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 45.8 GB%. The extra ground balls appear to be the result of his going to a two-seam fastball with more sinking and tailing action.

Despite the marked decline in Niemann’s ERA, you’d have a hard time distinguishing his plate discipline stats from 2009 and 2010. Last season, Niemann got swings on pitches out of the strike zone 23.9%. This year, his O-Swing is 24% (25-27% MLB average). His contact rate was 84.3% in 2009, and 84.4% in 2010 (80-81% MLB average). Niemann is putting more pitches over the plate — his Zone% has increased from 52.1% to 53.8% (48-51% MLB average) — and his first pitch strike percentage has inched from 57.7% to 58.3%, right around the big league average. His swinging strike rate, 7% last year, is 6.6% in 2010 (8-8.5% MLB average).

The largest differences between Niemann ’09 and Niemann ’10 are in areas over which the pitcher exerts limited control. He has benefitted from a .244 batting average on balls in play. Tampa does play fantastic D, ranking fourth in the majors in team Ultimate Zone rating this season after placing third last year. But even so, that BABIP is going to regress significantly in the months to come.

Also, Niemann has stranded 84.5% of base runners, leaps and bounds above his 73.7% figure from 2009 and the 70-72% big league average. The big righty has a 7.6% home run/fly ball rate this year. That’s exactly the same as his ’09 mark, but it still seems likely that over the long run he’ll serve up a few more dingers and post a HR/FB mark closer to the 11% major leaguer average.

Jeff Niemann is a capable big league starter, a guy with the skill set of a 4-4.5 ERA pitcher. That has plenty of value to the Rays. But fantasy owners are best off marketing Niemann to fellow competitors as a former top prospect who is in the midst of a big breakout. Don’t be surprised if his results begin to resemble his 2009 work — Niemann is basically the same guy.

A day late, but never a buck short…

Hisanori Takahashi | Mets | 6% owned in Yahoo! leagues

Brian Joura mentioned Takahashi as a potential waiver wire grab just yesterday, so let’s keep this short. The veteran Japanese lefty has secured a rotation spot for the foreseeable future given the injuries/ineffectiveness of Jonathon Niese, John Maine, and Oliver Perez, and his soft, softer, and softest offspeed heavy approach should continue to baffle hitters for the next few weeks.

Homer Bailey | Reds

Cincinnati’s somewhat enigmatic righty landed on the disabled list yesterday with shoulder inflammation, though the team has yet to announce his replacement. They did provide a list of candidates though, a list that did not include Aroldis Chapman. The best candidate is lefty Matt Maloney, who spent some time in the bigs last year (4.81 xFIP in 40.2 IP) and has a strong track record as a high strikeout (8.9 K/9), low walk (2.7 BB/9), and solid groundball (42.5%) pitcher in the minors. Sam LeCure and Travis Wood are the other candidates to take Bailey’s place, but neither offers the strikeout potential of Maloney.

All three line up to make Friday’s start (against the Astros!) at the moment, so pay attention to who starts for the Triple-A Louisville Bats tonight and Thursday (they’re off tomorrow) for the answer to who’s replacing Bailey.

Brad Penny & Kyle Lohse | Cardinals

St. Louis lost two-fifths of it’s rotation within the span of one turn, as Penny landed on the disabled list with a strained right lat and Kyle Lohse ran into a bout of “post-exercise inflammation.” The team is hopefully that Penny will only miss the minimum 15 days, but as Erik Manning notes, the Cardinals are overly optimistic when it comes to injuries. Righty P.J. Walters is all but guaranteed to make Thursday’s start at the Padres, and could use his knockout changeup to fashion a low-4.00’s ERA with decent strikeout totals during the interim.

Scott Olsen | Nationals

Olsen was pitching well before hitting the disabled list with shoulder inflammation, just the latest in a career full of shoulder problems. It’s extremely hard not to notice that Stephen Strasburg not only lines up perfectly to take Olsen’s spot on Saturday, but that he threw just 52 pitches in what could be considered a warm-up start last night. As much sense as it makes on the field, I have a hard time believing they would let him make his big league debut on the road (at San Diego) and miss out on all those extra ticket sales. Miguel Batista has been mentioned as a possible fill-in candidate, and in the name of all that is holy, stay away from him. Even with the lure of Petco, just avoid him at all costs.

After this weekend’s series with San Diego, the Nats head to Houston for a four game set, and Olsen’s spot would come up during the final game of that series. If you’re in Washington, pray for rain at some point in the next ten days. That would put Strasburg on target for a June 4th debut at home against the Reds, then five of seven potential starts before the All Star Break would be at home, with one of the away games right up the road in Baltimore. The Strasburg Era is very, very close my friends.

The Tampa Bay Rays have the best record in baseball at 32-13 and not surprisingly are receiving strong pitching performances from all five guys in their rotation. Here are the fantasy numbers for the Rays’ SP:

Those numbers look very good, but let’s examine two other numbers for each pitcher.

The Rays’ staff goes from being excellent to being less impressive after Shields when we look at these other numbers. Davis goes from a very strong #5 pitcher to one who looks more league average. Out of 51 qualified pitchers in the American League, Davis ranks 47th in K/BB and 46th in xFIP. And in his last four starts, Davis has gone 1-3 with a 5.75 ERA. He has 11 BB and 12 Ks in 20.1 IP and has allowed 4 HR in that span.

Normally, the conclusion might be that Davis is just hitting a rough patch and that he should be given a chance to straighten things out. Especially given his status as a former top prospect and a player who is just 24-years old and holding his own in the toughest division in baseball.

But complicating matters for the Rays is the presence of another top prospect in Triple-A who is having great success in Durham. Jeremy Hellickson, rated the Rays’ number-two prospect by our own Marc Hulet prior to the season, is pitching lights-out in the International League this year. Hellickson is 7-2 with a 2.79 ERA in 10 starts this year.

Hellickson has 12 BB and 60 Ks in 58 IP and has allowed just 2 HR. Monday night ne pitched eight scoreless innings against Pawtucket and allowed just one hit. It really is not much of a surprise that Hellickson is doing well in Triple-A. He got a mid-season promotion to Durham last year and went 6-1 with a 2.51 ERA in 9 starts there in 2009.

In parts of two seasons at Triple-A, Hellickson is 13-3 with a 2.65 ERA. He has allowed 27 BB and notched 130 Ks in 115.1 IP. The only less than glowing marker is his ground ball rate. Minor League Splits shows him with a 31.5 GB% (not counting his start against PAW) this season. However, that might be a sample size issue, as he has a 43.5 GB% in his minor league career and had a 44.2 percent mark in Durham last year.

Listed as 6’1 by MiLB, Hellickson does not have intimidating size. Minor league prospect maven John Sickels compared him to Roy Oswalt in this regard prior to this season. Oswalt came up at age 23, spent eight games in the bullpen, moved into the starting rotation in June and ended up with a 14-3 record his rookie year.

It would not be surprising to see Hellickson on a similar path, even if he does not come close to duplicating Oswalt’s W-L record. He has little left to prove in Triple-A and Hellickson has received in-season promotions in both 2008 and 2009. The big question is how long the Rays can remain patient with Davis. A 5.5 game lead in the division makes it easier to allow Davis to go out and pitch every five days without looking over his shoulder.

Still, do not be surprised if Hellickson gets a promotion soon. The Rays waited until September to promote Davis last year, but he did not dominate at Durham like Hellickson. Davis posted a 7.94 K/9 and a 3.40 BB/9 at Durham in 2009. Hellickson’s numbers are 9.31 and 1.86, respectively, this year. Like Oswalt, the Rays could call up Hellickson to begin his major league career in the bullpen with the idea of moving him into the rotation when needed.

Here is the latest update to Week Eight 2-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

SFG – Tim Lincecum
STL – Adam Wainwright
LAD – Clayton Kershaw
CHC – Ryan Dempster

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

STL – Jaime Garcia
CHC – Tom Gorzelanny
SFG – Todd Wellemeyer
LAD – Ramon Ortiz

Lincecum’s velocity is down nearly three miles per hour from 2008 but he has career highs in K/9 (11.01), GB% (48.3), O-Swing% (31.2) and SwStr% (13.4). Not surprisingly, Lincecum also has a career-best 2.35 ERA. Both his FIP and xFIP are slightly higher, but his FIP (2.50) ranks second in the majors while his xFIP (2.72) is the lowest. However, in his last outing Lincecum allowed 5 ER and 5 BB in a no-decision on the road against the Diamondbacks.

In his past four seasons, Wainwright has posted HR/FB rates in single digits. But this year’s mark of 3.6 percent has led to an xFIP a full run above his 2.49 ERA. Regardless, Wainwright is one of the elite pitchers in the game. He uses both a curve and slider effectively and combines a high strikeout rate with a high ground ball rate. Add it all up and Wainwright has thrown a Quality Start in eight of his nine appearances this season.

After getting roughed up in a start against the Brewers, Kershaw has been on fire. In three starts covering 22.1 IP, he has allowed 12 H, 2 ER, 7 BB and has 23 Ks. For the season, Kershaw has a 10.02 K/9 but has really struggled with his walks. His 5.26 BB/9 is the second-worst mark in the league. Kershaw also has a very low 5.6 HR/FB rate, which has led to an xFIP almost a full run above his 3.23 ERA.

Always a good strikeout pitcher, Dempster’s 8.33 K/9 is the highest mark he has ever posted as a starting pitcher. But even with that strikeout rate, a solid GB rate and a .252 BABIP, Dempster is just 2-4 on the season. Last time out he snapped a stretch of four straight losses with a no-decision. Dempster’s HR/FB rate is 11.9% but he has served up 7 HR in his last five games.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week Eight.

Scott Baker – Despite recently touting Baker as an acquisition target, I think he is someone to keep on the bench this week if at all possible. Baker’s struggles are partly due to a high BABIP and this week he faces the Yankees and the Rangers, two of the three best average-hitting teams in the league. I expect regression to take place eventually, just not this week.

Clay Buchholz – He has won four of his past five decisions. Buchholz is outpitching his peripherals, mainly due to a 4.5 HR/FB rate. He squares off this week against the Rays and the Royals, two teams that are below average in the AL in HR. So, ride the hot hand in Buchholz and make sure he is active this week.

Aaron Harang – After getting off to an 0-3 start with an 8.31 ERA, Harang has pitched much better in his past five games. In that time span he has 5 BB and 30 Ks in 30.2 IP. But his ERA is 4.40, due to 4 HR and a .311 average-against. This week Harang faces the Pirates and Astros, who are the bottom two teams in both AVG and HR. Look for Harang to put up Quality Starts and make sure he is in your lineup.

Livan Hernandez – Dave Cameron called him the luckiest man alive earlier this week but the clock is ready to strike midnight for Hernandez. He allowed 11 hits and 8 line drives in his past 12.1 IP, compared to 20 H and 12 LD in his previous 27.1 IP. While he faces two teams that will not be confused for offensive powerhouses in San Francisco and San Diego, Hernandez has to make both of them on the road. We all know the crash is coming and I say it happens this week. Sell him if you can, bench him if you cannot.

Mike Leake – Like Harang, Leake gets home starts against PIT and HOU this week. He has hurled five straight Quality Starts and has gotten his BB trouble from earlier in the season under control. After allowing 12 BB in his first 13.2 IP, Leake has given up just 9 BB in his last 39 IP. He has outpitched his peripherals this year, but if Leake can keep the ball in the park, he has a good shot to keep his QS streak intact.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week Eight are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lester, Danks, Peavy, Shields, Burnett, J. Garcia, Braden, I. Kennedy, Wolf, Davis, Garland, Saunders, A. Sanchez, Chacin, Cecil, Moyer, Gorzelanny, Masterson, Guthrie, Maholm, Meche, Wellemeyer, Paulino, Kawakami, Ortiz, Burress, Dickey.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week Six pitchers and how they fared.

Cook – Advised to sit. 3 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.667 WHIP (1 start)
LeBlanc – Advised to sit. 7 Ks, 2.31 ERA, 1.286 WHIP (2)
Maine – Advised to start. 10 Ks, 6.55 ERA, 2.091 WHIP (2)
Olsen – Advised to start. 5 Ks, 2.25 ERA, 1.333 WHIP (2)
Westbrook – Advised to start. 2 W, 1.20 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.133 WHIP (2)