Glance at Clay Buchholz’s ERAs over the 2008-2010 seasons, and you’ll be inclined to believe that the former phenom’s major league performance has progressed from ghastly (6.75) to good (4.21) to great (2.52). That’s a compelling narrative — the hot-shot prospect tosses a no-no during a September ’07 call-up, gets his head handed to him the following year and then makes the necessary adjustments to blossom into a full-fledged ace.

It’s a nice story. But it’s also misleading. In truth, Buchholz neither fell to the depths of despair that his ’08 ERA suggests, nor has he risen from the ashes like a phoenix this season for a Boston rotation suffering greatly from injury and underachievement. Throughout his big league tenure, Buchholz has been pretty good, but hardly elite.

In 2010, Buchholz has 5.72 K/9, 3.78 BB/9, a 51.5 percent ground ball rate and a 4.33 xFIP in 78.2 frames. For comparison, his xFIP was 4.28 in ’08 and 4.09 last season. The big change in Clay’s ERA is due to factors largely out of his control — his BABIP is .268 (.302 career average) and his home run per fly ball rate is just 4.2%. His career rate is 11%, right at the big league average.

The 25-year-old’s K rate is down from the previous two seasons (8.53 K/9 in ’08, 6.65 in ’09). His swinging strike rate is basically the same all the years, ranging from 9.7% to 9.9% (8-9% MLB average), but the culprit for the lack of punch outs appears to be the rate of contact made against Buccholz’s pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. He’s throwing more off-the-plate pitches in 2010, and batters are swinging at plenty of them. But they’re also connecting more often against those offerings:

Buchholz has thrown just 43.8 percent of his pitches within the zone this year (47.3% MLB average). Batters have gone after his out-of zone pitches 31.5% (28.1% MLB average). However, they have put the bat on the ball 67.6% (66.4% MLB average).

That’s a sizeable increase from the previous two seasons — in 2008 and 2009, hitters made contact with Buchholz’s out-of-zone pitches at a rate that was about seven percent below the major league average. This season, they’re making contact on those pitches at a clip that’s two percent above the MLB norm.

Pitch selection has played a role in the K decline. Buchholz has a four-pitch mix: a 93-94 MPH fastball, a hard-upper 80’s slider, a mid-to-high-seventies curveball and a 79-80 MPH changeup. According to Pitch F/X data from Trip Somers’ site, Buchholz has increasingly gone to his slider this season, at the expense of some changeups and curves:

His fastball has never garnered many whiffs, and neither has his curve. Buchholz’s changeup has always gotten a healthy number of swing-throughs. His slider produced plenty of whiffs in ’08, but it’s not missing many bats this year:

So more sliders, and fewer whiffs on the slider. In our splits section on the player pages, we have pitch usage by count. Buchholz is going to his fastball and slider (two pitches with below-average whiff rates) more often in two-strike situations, in place of his curveball and whiff-generating changeup:

(note: the numbers are rounded, so not all columns add up to exactly 100).

These changes in Buchholz’s approach help explain why he hasn’t missed as many bats as expected. His minor league K rates suffered over this period as well. Buchholz spent much of 2007 pitching between Double-A Portland and Triple-A Pawtucket, and he logged a good number of innings with the PawSox in ’08 and ’09. Buchholz’s major league equivalent K rates declined over the years — According to Minor League Splits, Buchholz’s work in the minors in 2007 translated to 9.8 K/9 in the big leagues, but that mark fell to 7.7 K/9 in 2008 and 6.7 K/9 in 2009.

Clay Buchholz has a fantastic minor league track record. He exhibits strong ground ball tendencies, and he was an elite strikeout pitcher during most of his days as a prospect. It wouldn’t be surprising if he took significant steps forward in the coming years. But the current version of Buchholz is more of a solid, low-four’s ERA-type than any sort of rotation messiah.

Let’s round up the latest rotation ins-and-outs from around the league…

Jake Arrieta | Orioles | 2% owned

The O’s turned to one of their top prospects last week, and Arrieta rewarded them with a solid effort and a win against the Yankees. I don’t like his long-term outlook as much as I like his teammate Brian Matusz’s, but I think Arrieta can best his performance this year. He should be good for a low-to-mid-4.00’s ERA with close to 7.50 K/9 the rest of the way, so there’s value here in an AL-only or deep mixed leagues.

Matt Harrison | Rangers | 0%

Rich Harden hit the DL with a strained glute, which is fitting because opponents have been kicking it all year. Harrison is the leading candidate to fill in for him (start would be Saturday), but the team acknowledged that could change if they need him in relief before then. He’s posted a 4.97 ERA (4.65 xFIP) in six starts and three relief appearances this year, and (R) ZiPS projects a hideous 5.74 ERA with just 5.40 K/9 the rest of the way. Even with Saturday’s start coming at Houston, he’s not worth a roster spot. None of the other candidates sound appetizing either.

Jesse Litsch | Blue Jays | 1%

After missing most of last season with Tommy John surgery, Litsch returned to the mound last week with a pair of mediocre-at-best outings against the Tigers and Twins. He massively outperformed a dreadful strikeout rate in 2007 (3.81 ERA, 5.09 xFIP, 4.05 K/9), and we can’t expect that luck to continue after elbow surgery since command is usually the last thing to come back. Despite the sexy past ERA’s, I wouldn’t risk it even in deep leagues.

Brad Lincoln | Pirates | 2%

David Golebiewski already introduced us to Lincoln last week, so I’ll just send you that way. I guess all I have to add is that yes, he still has a job.

Joe Martinez | Giants | 0%

Martinez takes the place of the injured and ineffective Todd Wellemeyer, and will start on Tuesday at home against Baltimore. He owns a ~3.41 FIP in Triple-A this year, aided by a stellar 58.5% GB%. CHONE projected a 5.27 ERA in 21 starts before the season, though it doesn’t look like he’ll pick up that much playing time. I like him as a sneaky spot starter against the lowly O’s, but not much beyond that.

Daisuke Matsuzaka | Red Sox | 41%

Dice-K came down with a forearm injury during warm ups on Saturday and was immediately placed on the DL just to get another arm for the bullpen. The injury isn’t believed to be serious and Matsuzaka should be back as soon as he’s eligible to be activated on the 23rd, in which case he’d only miss once start (because of the off day today). The Red Sox haven’t announced who will replace him on Saturday, but Michael Bowden (0% owned) lines up to start that day down in Triple-A. He’s got a ~5.58 FIP (6.2 K/9, 3.9 BB/9) in Pawtucket this year, and the only way I’d start him (against the Dodgers at Fenway) is if you’re so far behind in the ERA and WHIP categories that you’re just gunning for W and K at the end of the week.

Ownership rates on based on Yahoo! leagues.

Here is the latest update to Week 11 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

PHI – Roy Halladay
SDP – Jon Garland
DET – Max Scherzer
OAK – Trevor Cahill
SEA – Luke French
STL – Jeff Suppan

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

OAK – Dallas Braden
DET – Rick Porcello
PHI – Kyle Kendrick (much to the dismay of Phillies Red)
PIT – Zach Duke
SEA – Ian Snell

Halladay has a 1.96 ERA and four losses. The losses have been two that were deserved (12.2 IP, 11 ER) and two of the hard-luck variety (17 IP, 3 ER). In his first start, Halladay renews acquaintances with the New York Yankees, against whom he is 18-6 with a 2.84 ERA lifetime. In his second start, Halladay goes up against the Twins, a team he is 8-1 lifetime against.

Garland has given up 9 ER in his last 13 IP and picked up back-to-back losses for the first time since his first two decisions of the year. Still, his ERA is a nifty 2.84, even if it is a run and a half lower than his xFIP. Garland gets home starts this week against Toronto and Baltimore. This year in Petco, Garland has a 1.15 ERA in 39 IP.

Scherzer followed up his 14-strikeout performance with a mediocre effort, but in his last outing he went 7.1 IP, allowed 3 ER, 1 BB and had 7 Ks. He gets two home starts this week, including a game against his old Diamondbacks teammates at the end of the week.

Cahill is second on the A’s with 5 W and has picked up a victory in four of his last five starts. He has pitched a Quality Start in each of his last six games, including his last outing when he went a season-high 8 IP and permitted just 1 ER. Cahill is succeeding despite a 4.85 K/9 and a 1.58 K/BB. He has a normal HR/FB rate and is excelling thanks to a .235 BABIP and a 77.3 strand rate.

French is a soft-tossing lefty acquired by the Mariners in the Jarrod Washburn deal at last year’s trade deadline. His best pitch is his changeup and he also complements his 87.7 mph fastball with a slider. A flyball pitcher, French has very little margin for error. He has a road start in St. Louis and a matchup against the Reds this week.

Suppan is back with the Cardinals, hoping to recapture the form that earned him a $42 million contract following the 2006 season. In his three previous years with St. Louis, Suppan won 44 games and had a 3.95 ERA. In the last three-plus years with the Brewers, Suppan notched 29 Wins and had a 5.08 ERA. In 15 games with the Brewers this season, Suppan had a .399 BABIP.

Jonathon Niese (owned in 6% of Yahoo leagues)

Niese, 23, cobbled together a quality minor league resume (8.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 51.8 GB%). The left-hander was on his way to establishing himself as a member of the Mets’ rotation last season when a torn right hamstring ended his season in August, requiring a surgical fix. He hit the DL this season with another, milder right hamstring injury. But when on the mound, Niese has impressed.

Tossing 57.1 innings, New York’s seventh round pick in the ’05 draft has 7.06 K/9, 2.98 BB/9 and a 3.94 xFIP. He’s showing strong a ground ball rate to boot, with a 52.2 GB%. Niese doesn’t blow batters away — his fastball hits 90 MPH on a good day. But he supplements the pitch with a mid-80’s cutter that tails in on the hands of righties, as well as the occasional mid-70’s curveball and low-80’s changeup. Niese’s four-seamer and cutter both have above-average strike and whiff percentages:

Four-Seamer: 66.2 Strike% (64.1% MLB Avg.), 8.1 Whiff% (6% MLB Avg.)
Cutter: 69.4 Strike% (68.3% MLB Avg.), 12 Whiff% (8.8% MLB Avg.)

For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects 6.53 K/9, 3.36 BB/9 and a 3.93 FIP from Niese. He doesn’t possess one standout skill, but Niese makes batters chop the ball into the grass while amassing decent K and walk rates. He’s plenty useful in NL-only formats.

Troy Glaus, Braves (63%)

Signed to a one-year, $1.75 million deal over the winter, Glaus was picked up off the scrap heap as a Freddie Freeman stopgap. The former Angel, Diamondback, Blue Jay and Cardinal’s career looked to be on the ropes after a 2009 season ruined by a back problem and a right shoulder injury that required surgery. CHONE (.249/.359/.447, .356 wOBA) and ZiPS (.252/.358/.441, .355 wOBA) projected a reasonably productive season for Atlanta’s reclamation project, but that was under the assumption that the 33-year-old wouldn’t again fall to pieces physically.

So far, Glaus has stayed healthy and is surpassing those pre-season forecasts. In 253 plate appearances, he has a .279/.375/.474 line and a .373 wOBA. He’s drawing walks at a 13.4% clip, and while he’s not hitting for the mammoth power of years past, Glaus has a solid .195 ISO. Freeman (.249/.306/.422 in 185 AB in Triple-A) isn’t exactly tearing the cover off the ball for Gwinett, so Glaus’ job looks secure. ZiPS projects a .260/.363/.449 triple-slash from here on out, with a .361 wOBA.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 11.

Hiroki Kuroda – He has been a reliable pitcher for the Dodgers this season with eight Quality Starts. But on the road Kuroda has allowed 4 HR in 31 IP. This week he has road starts in Cincinnati and Boston. The Reds and Red Sox rank second and third in most HR hit this season. Put Kuroda on the bench this week if you have other options.

Shaun Marcum – Like Kuroda, Marcum has been a very good pitcher this year. But Marcum has struggled in his last two starts, allowing 11 ER in 12.1 IP. Additionally, Marcum has a pronounced home/road split. This year at home, Marcum has a 2.59 ERA but it is nearly two runs higher on the road at 4.42. With West Coast road games in San Diego and San Francisco, sit Marcum this week.

Justin Masterson – All season long Masterson has out-pitched his peripherals. Finally, in his last three starts Masterson is starting to see some positive results. He is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA and a 1.078 WHIP. Masterson still struggles with his control and versus LHB. But this week he faces the Mets and Pirates, who are both below-average in walks and neither team is dominated with LHB. Masterson is still on the waiver wire in most leagues and is worth an add this week.

Jonathan Sanchez – Despite great numbers, Sanchez has not racked up the wins this season. In his last four games, Sanchez has 20 Ks in 23.1 IP and a 2.31 ERA yet is only 2-2 in that span. A home game against the Orioles offers a nice chance for Sanchez to break into the win column. Ride the hot pitcher and make sure Sanchez is active this week.

C.J. Wilson – The Rangers’ lefty endured a tough stretch where he gave up 17 ER in 16 IP but has been much better in his last two outings, in which he has picked up two Wins with 10 Ks in 12 IP. Wilson does have two road games this week, but they are against the last-place Marlins and the 25-36 Astros. Activated Wilson for his two starts this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 11 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

J. Santana, Wainwright, J. Johnson, Sabathia, Price, Buchholz, Pavano, Zambrano, Braden, Wolf, Saunders, Harang, Porcello, F. Garcia, Paulino, Cook, Kendrick, Tillman, Duke, Lincoln, Davies, Lannan, Snell.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week Nine pitchers and how they fared.

Bonderman – Advised to start. 6.59 ERA, 3 Ks, 1.683 WHIP (2 starts)
Harden – Advised to sit. W, 6.30 ERA, 7 Ks, 1.700 WHIP (2)
Noalsco – Advised to sit. W, 4.38 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.541 WHIP (2)
E. Santana – Advised to start. 2 W, 1.39 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.308 WHIP (2)
Takahashi – Advised to start. 10.61 ERA, 6 Ks, 1.929 WHIP (2)

Marlins’ starter Ricky Nolasco was a trendy sleeper pick among the stathead crowd coming into the season … well, sleeper makes him sounds like a big secret. I suppose he was already a well known guy, but not everyone looked past the 5.06 ERA and saw the gaudy peripheral stats that suggested damn near ace-level production. Semantics.

Anyway, Nolasco is producing almost exactly as we expected him to this season. His walks are super low (1.82 BB/9), he’s generating close to 40% ground balls (39.2%, to be exact), just about 11% of his fly balls are leaving the yard, and his strand rate is right around the league average following last season’s unfathomably low 61.0% LOB%. All that is nice, but there’s one big red flag here: he’s not striking out nearly as many batters.

After a studly 9.49 K/9 last year (7.88 in 2008), Nolasco is down basically three full strikeouts to 6.54 K/9 this year. Let’s cut right to the chase and dig into the Plate Discipline stats (click for larger)…

You can see that Nolasco isn’t generating as many swings and misses this season, which is to be expected with such a dramatic drop in strikeout rate. His O-Contact% has taken an extreme jump up to 70.1% this year, so pitches that were being swung through last year are being put in play or fouled off this year. Make sure to note that the league as a whole is not only swinging at more pitches out of the zone this year, but also making more contact with them as well. Nolasco’s jump in O-Contact% is still extreme even considering the league-wide change.

Pitch Type Values tell us that Nolasco’s fastball has been a bit more effective this year while his slider has been slightly more ineffective, though his split-finger fastball has gone from 1.95 runs above average last year (per 100 thrown) to 1.05 runs below average this year. A drop of three runs per 100 pitches is significant, and indicates that the pitch might be the root of Nolasco’s strikeout problems.

The righty’s fastball velocity is down exactly one mile an hour to 90.5 while the splitter is down close to three miles an hour to 84.9, so perhaps there’s too much separation between the pitches. The reduced velocity has altered the movement of the pitch, certainly not unexpected. It’s lost close to five inches of horizontal movement and close to an inch and a half of vertical falling off the tableness (looking at some other splitters from around the league, it doesn’t appear to be a calibration issue, though that always remains a possibility). Nolasco’s splitter still features some fade and sink, but not nearly as much as it did a year ago.

Unsurprisingly, he throws the pitch primarily in two strike counts, so it’s possible the slower, straighter version of his splitter isn’t getting it done. I don’t have to tell you that correlation =/= causation, so this is far from proof. Just a theory. Whatever’s going on, Nolasco’s strikeout rate has dropped by a third, and his overall performance has suffered as a result.

(R) ZiPS calls for a 131 IP of 4.26 ERA (3.69 FIP) and 7.97 K/9 ball the rest of the way, so it sees an improvement coming. He still has trade value based on reputation alone, but for now it might be best to sit him against teams that do an especially good job of getting the bat on the ball. I don’t recommend dropping him outright unless you’re in an especially shallow league.

A night after getting mauled by cyborg..er Stephen Strasburg, the Pittsburgh Pirates promoted RHP Brad Lincoln to start Wednesday night against the Nationals. Two roster spots were opened up yesterday — 1B Jeff Clement was sent to Triple-A Indianapolis and LHP Jack Taschner was DFA’d — and the other spot is expected to go to OF Jose Tabata. If that move becomes official, look for a post on Tabata tomorrow.

Lincoln, 25, was the fourth overall pick in the 2006 draft. The University of Houston product starred on the mound and in the batter’s box for the Cougars, but a power pitching arsenal assured that he’d leave the bat behind as a pro. Here was Baseball America’s scouting report of Lincoln at the time:

He sits at 91-93 mph with good life on his fastball, touches 95-96 most games and has peaked at 98. He holds that velocity throughout games. His curveball is equally as impressive, and he can throw it for strikes or break it out of the zone as a chase pitch. He also shows feel for a changeup that’s close to an average pitch already. Lincoln is close to big league ready and his competitive makeup means he’ll get everything out of his considerable ability.

Unfortunately, the 6-foot righty would toss just 23.2 innings as a Pirates farmhand in 2006 before succumbing to Tommy John surgery the following April. After missing the entire 2007 season, Lincoln returned in 2008 and split his season between the Low-A South Atlantic League and the High-A Carolina League. At the lower level, he had 6.68 K/9, 0.87 B/9 and a 3.78 FIP in 62 IP. In the Carolina League, Lincoln logged 41.2 innings and had rates of 6.26 K/9, 2.38 BB/9 and a 4.23 FIP. Though he didn’t strike out a ton of batters, Lincoln was stingy with the walks and kept the ball down (a combined 50.9 GB% between the two levels, according to Minor League Splits).

In its 2009 Prospect Handbook, BA said that Lincoln’s post-Tommy John velocity returned to the 90-93 MPH range, and his hammer curve regained its bite. His changeup was said to need work, though, and he also “caught too much of the strike zone at times, making him susceptible to home runs.” (Lincoln surrendered about 1.1 HR/9 in ’08)

In ’09, Lincoln again divided his season between two levels. In the Double-A Eastern League, he whiffed 7.8 per nine, walked 2.16 and had a 2.96 FIP in 75 innings. A low homer rate (0.48 per nine) contributed to that sub-three FIP, however, and his ground ball rate dipped to 43.8%. Promoted to the Triple-A International League, Lincoln threw 61.1 innings with rates of 6.16 K/9, 1.47 BB/9, 1.03 HR/9 and a 3.85 FIP. He was an extreme fly ball pitcher for the Indians, getting grounders just 34 percent.

Sent back to Indy to begin the 2010 season, Lincoln improved his K rate (7.2 per nine), kept the walks low (1.8 BB/9) and had a more neutral GB/FB profile (42.6 GB%), posting a 3.67 FIP in 68.1 IP.

While no premier prospect, Lincoln has the look of a quality mid-rotation arm. He controls his low-90’s fastball well, has an above-average curve and while his change doesn’t draw much praise, he hasn’t shown much a platoon split in the minors (3.88 FIP versus lefties, 3.78 FIP against right-handers). According to Minor League Splits, Lincoln’s ’09 pitching translated to a major league line of 5.64 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 1.06 HR/9 and a 4.57 FIP. His 2010 season equates to 6.09 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 1.32 HR/9 and a 4.85 FIP. Before the season began, CHONE projected 6.22 K/9, 2.87 BB/9, 1.34 HR/9 and a 4.70 FIP, while ZiPS forecasted 5.58 K/9, 2.35 BB/9, 1.32 HR/9 and a 4.65 FIP.

Lincoln’s worth an add in NL-only formats, given his adequate punch out rates and low walk rate. He’s probably not a prime target in keeper leagues, but he’s someone to monitor there, too. Watch his ground ball rate, though — as BA indicated, home runs could become a problem.

Johan Santana’s career credentials are unquestioned. The Venezuelan southpaw, a Rule V gem who won two Cy Young Awards with the Twins, has a 3.39 FIP in the majors. He’s got over a K per inning during his career, and he topped the seven WAR mark each season from 2004-2006. Santana was “merely” a four-to-five win pitcher in 2007-2008, before elbow surgery to remove bone chips ended his ’09 season early and caused him to post 2.8 WAR.

On the surface, the 31-year-old’s 2010 season looks like vintage Santana — in 78.1 innings, he’s got a 2.76 ERA. But the process behind those results isn’t as impressive.

While the Queens version of Santana in ’08 and ’09 didn’t miss bats at the same rate as his halcyon days with the Twins, he still managed swinging strike rates in excess of 11 percent (8-9% MLB average) with an overall contact rate in the 77-78% range (80-81% MLB average). This season, Santana is getting swinging strikes 9.4%, with a contact rate right around the big league average.

As a result, Santana’s strikeout rate has declined — from 7.9 batters per nine innings in ’08 and ’09 to 6.55 K/9 in 2010. His walk rate has climbed somewhat as well (2.76 BB/9, from the 2.4-2.5 BB/9 range the previous two years), though not alarmingly so. Santana’s expected FIP (xFIP), derived from a pitcher’s K’s, walks and a normalized home run per fly ball rate, is 4.48.

Now, that mark likely exaggerates the extent of Johan’s struggles. His BABIP is pretty low at .268, but Santana has generally posted lower-than average BABIP figures (.286 career). Santana gets a lot of fly balls (35.8 GB% in 2010, 37.8 GB% career), which have a lower BABIP than grounders. He induces a lot of weakly hit pop ups, with a 12.7% infield fly rate this year and a 13.2% mark for his career. Santana’s rate of stranding base runners (79.7%) is well above the 70-72% MLB average, but his career rate is 77.5%. It seems reasonable to suggest he’ll continue to have a LOB rate above the big league norm. Santana’s home run per fly ball rate (5.5%) almost assuredly will rise, though.

So, Santana hasn’t performed near as well as his ERA suggests, but probably not as poorly as his xFIP indicates. His falling K rate is worth examining further, however. The velocity on Santana’s four-seam fastball has declined again this season, as has the zip on his slider. But those aren’t the root causes for the reduced number of whiffs. Take a look at Santana’s whiff percentage by pitch over the 2008-2010 seasons (data from Trip Somers’ texasleaguers site):

Perhaps as a result of hitters not anticipating it as much, Santana has actually gotten a higher whiff rate on his four-seamer. His two-seamer has a very low whiff percentage in 2010 after getting an above average number last season. That most glaring difference, however, is the whiff rate on the changeup. Santana’s signature change got a whiff 22.4% in ’08 and 17.4% in ’09, but just 13.6% this season (12.1% MLB average). That’s a substantial drop.

Though his ERA is pristine, Johan Santana really isn’t in the conversation anymore when it comes to the absolute best starters in the game. That doesn’t mean he’s done being a quality pitcher, but he’s not fooling hitters with the same regularity these days.

As soon as Jeff Karstens steps on the mound tonight, he’ll become the answer to a trivia question. That question, of course, asks who the opposing starter was when Stephen Strasburg made his big league debut.

It took two months, but the Nationals will finally turn the first overall pick in the 2009 draft loose on National League lineups this evening, starting with Karstens and the Pirates. He’s already owned in 87% of Yahoo! leagues, so there’s no chance of making a shrewd waiver grab now, but you knew that already. Instead, let’s focus on what Strasburg could provide fantasy owners the rest of the season.

ZiPS projects 20 starts with a 4.18 ERA and a rather gaudy 113/36 K/BB ratio in 114 IP (h/t BBTF), putting him somewhere around a 3.66 FIP. Looking at (R) ZiPS for some perspective, that projection puts Strasburg on par with what pitchers like Josh Beckett (he’s hurt though), Jered Weaver, and Roy Oswalt are predicted to do the rest of the year, though with a few more strikeouts. That’s a pretty significant pickup in the middle of June, but we’ve always got to watch out for innings limits when it comes to young pitchers.

According to Adam Kilgore, the Nats’ plan is for their prized prospect to throw about 150-160 IP total this season, between the majors and minors. He’s already thrown 55.1 glorious frames in the minors (seriously, look at these numbers), so assuming the high end of Kilgore’s range, we’re looking at 104.2 IP from Strasburg the rest of the way. That’s basically two fewer starts than what ZiPS projects.

Chances are, those two missing starts will come in September, which is fantasy crunch time. I think we all expect the Nats to continue to fall out of the race, so there wouldn’t be much pressure to keep running Strasburg out there late in the year. Losing what should be one of your three best starters in the fantasy playoffs is a rather massive hit; it’s a little like Peyton Manning in fantasy football. You can’t win a championship with the guy because he’s always on the bench resting in Week 17.

Strasburg’s going to provide a ton of value through the summer, but make sure you keep an eye on his innings. Once he approaches 80 or so big league innings, it might not be the worst thing in the world to cut bait and trade him. Most trade deadlines are set in mid-August, which should give you plenty of time to see where his workload sits. You’ll presumably get a valuable piece in return, one that could help you more down the stretch than Strasburg on a leash would. If you’re in a keeper league, forget about this option obviously.

Strasburg should step right in and be a rock solid fantasy starter tonight, but there’s nothing wrong with using the hype to your benefit if you happen to own him. Start him all summer, and then when the Nats are ready to start taking it easy on him, deal him for something else of value.

Some low ownership starting pitchers coming to a rotation spot near you…

Dana Eveland | Pirates | 1% owned

Yeah, it is odd to talk about Eveland on a fantasy site considering that all of his pitching independent stats stink dating back to his 2.7 WAR season in 2008. The only reason I’m mentioning him is because he’s got a date with the lefty heavily and certifiably awful Indians later this week, so you’ve got a prime opportunity to steal a cheap win, or at least a few strikeouts and a possible ERA/WHIP boost come next weekend.

Tommy Hunter | Rangers | 3%

Hunter returned from a strained oblique just in time to replace the injured Derek Holland, and all he did was allow one run over nine innings of work against the Rays in his first start of the year on Saturday. He’s not going to set the world on fire with such a low strikeout rate ((R) ZiPS calls for a 5.03 FIP and 4.55 K/9 the rest of the way), but his next few starts come at home against the Mariners, at the Marlins, then at home against the Pirates and Astros. If you’re lagging behind some of the pitching categories, Hunter could give you a decent boost in an AL-only or deep mixed league.

Vin Mazzaro | Athletics | 0%

Brett Anderson’s injury isn’t quite the worst case scenario, but it’s pretty bad. His absence opens up a spot for Mazzaro, who’s been pretty dreadful in limited action so far. (R) ZiPS calls for a 5.45 ERA (4.72 FIP) with 5.45 K/9 that’s considerably worse than his 7.7 K/9 mark in over 125 IP at the Triple-A level. Mazzaro’s fastball-slider heavy approach is best suited for the bullpen, but like Eveland he gives you a chance at a cheap stats boost when he starts against the Giants in San Francisco next weekend.

Jonathon Niese | Mets | 3%

Oliver Perez is finally off the Mets’ active roster, though not in the way many had hoped. He’s currently on the DL with a case of suckitis knee tendinitis so suspicious that the league is investigating. His roster spot went to Niese, who returned from his second hamstring issue in as many seasons to hold the Marlins to one run over seven innings on Saturday.

(R) ZiPS calls for a 4.60 ERA (4.02 FIP) with 6.61 K/9 the rest of the way, but I love him as a matchup starter in the back of a fantasy staff. His home park certainly suppresses offense and he has no discernible platoon split, so a righty heavy lineup won’t kill him. Niese’s next two starts come at the Orioles and at the Indians, so he’s got that going for him. I’m a fan, especially in NL-only or deep mixed leagues.

Adam Ottavino | Cardinals | 0%

Erik Manning called it, Brad Penny’s injury is going to require a lot more time off than just the 15 day DL stint, opening up a spot for Ottavino. His minor league track record suggests lots of walks (4.2 BB/9) but a decent amount of strikeouts (7.9 K/9) and groundballs (46.7% GB). Sticking with the theme of this post, Ottavino has a pair of favorable matchups coming up: at the hacktastic Diamondbacks and home against the A’s. In an NL-only or a deep mixed league, he could be a decent play the next two times out.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues.