When the Atlanta Braves selected Mike Minor seventh overall in the 2009 draft, some prospect pundits labeled the pick an uncharacteristically conservative move by an organization known for favoring high-upside prep players. A Vanderbilt product, Minor was regarded as a four-pitch lefty without a plus offering. He was expected to reach the majors in short order, but his ceiling wasn’t considered commensurate with what’s anticipated from a single-digit pick.

A little more than a year later, Minor has proven to be a fast mover. With Kris Medlen (UCL tear) possibly headed for Tommy John surgery, Minor will make his big league debut this coming Monday against the Houston Astros. But that’s not all — after a dominant minor league season, Minor has talent evaluators re-thinking his long-term potential.

At the time Minor was drafted, Baseball America described him as a soft-tossing southpaw who wouldn’t fool many pro hitters. Given the Commodores connection, Minor elicited comparisons to Jeremy Sowers:

Like Sowers, Minor has more pitchability than stuff, with a fastball in the 86-89 mph range and a plus changeup that grades as his best pitch. His other strongest attribute could be his pickoff move, a weapon he broke out repeatedly against Cuba last summer. Minor’s future may depend on his breaking stuff. He formerly threw a slider as his primary breaking ball, and at times it was an above-average pitch with depth. He showed he could throw the pitch for strikes or bury it. Minor added a solid curveball this fall and threw four pitches for strikes this spring, but some scouts think the curve has sapped some of the life off the rest of his offerings.

Minor signed for an above-slot $2.42 million bonus, then tossed 14 scoreless in the Low-A South Atlantic League with a 17/0 K/BB ratio and one run allowed. He also got 16.2 innings of work in the Arizona Fall League, surrendering 10 runs with a 12/6 K/BB. According to BA’s J.J. Cooper, Minor averaged about 90.9 MPH with his heater in the AFL and topped out at 93.8 MPH.

In 2010, the 22-year-old opened the season with Mississippi in the Double-A Southern League. He was hardly the finesse, control-oriented hurler that most anticipated — Minor whiffed 109 batters in 87 innings pitched (11.3 K/9), walking 3.5 per nine and giving up 0.8 HR/9. While his 4.03 ERA didn’t stand out, that was due in large part to a .371 batting average on balls in play. Minor’s park-and-luck adjusted FIP, according to Minor League Splits, was 3.29.

It has been more of the same since he was promoted to the Triple-A International League — Minor’s got 10 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 0.3 HR/9 and a 2.97 adjusted FIP in 33.1 frames with the Gwinnett Braves. He has been neutral in terms of ground ball/fly ball tendencies, with a 44.1 GB% between the two levels. Per Minor League Splits, Minor’s pitching at Mississippi and Gwinnett translates to 8.1 K/9, 4.9 BB/9 and 1.1 HR/9 at the major league level.

It’s not just the numbers that are better than anticipated. Minor’s once-modest fastball is popping the mitt with more gusto. Last month, BA’s Jim Callis described the changes in Minor’s stuff:

He’s ditched the curve, and his stuff is sharper. I don’t think anyone was anticipating his velo jump, not even the Braves, but I got several reports he’s hitting 95-96 mph consistently. As a result, he’s not quite throwing as many strikes as he used to. For me, he’s more of a No. 3 starter now [with] a chance to be a 2 if he maintains the velo and improves his control. When he was drafted, I thought he was a No. 4 at best.

With more zip on his fastball, as well as a quality changeup and solid slider, Minor ranked got an honorable mention on BA’s mid-season top 25 prospects list.

Given the large disparity between Minor’s college and pro scouting reports, it will be interesting to see if he maintains his new found velocity over the long haul. The spike in punch outs has come with more walks, but the trade-off has certainly been a net positive. At the very least, we can safely, thankfully leave that Sowers comp in the rear view mirror. Minor is worth picking up in most every league, as his spruced-up stuff gives him bat-missing ability few thought he’d possess.

While Good Doctor is no longer on call, the Toronto Blue Jays still feature a youthful, talented starting rotation. Jays starters boast a collective 4.17 xFIP, a mark bested by only the Minnesota Twins among AL squads. The grizzled veteran of the group is 28-year-old Shaun Marcum, who has impressed in his first season back from Tommy John surgery.

In 125 innings pitched, Marcum has struck out 7.7 batters per nine innings, walked 2.02 per nine and has a 3.24 ERA. Marcum’s xFIP is higher, though still sturdy, at 3.84. The righty gives up a lot of fly balls (38.8 GB% in 2010, 40.1 GB% during his career), and he has given up a home run on just 7.7% of fly balls hit against him. For comparison, his career rate is 11.4% and the MLB average is also around 11 percent. Odds are, that HR/FB figure will climb. But even so, Marcum has missed bats and limited the free passes.

Toronto’s third-round pick in the ’03 draft throws…well, what doesn’t he throw? Marcum has used his 87 MPH fastball less than 50% of the time, supplementing the pitch with a mid-80’s cutter, a mid-70’s curveball and a low-80’s changeup (some low-80’s sliders are sprinkled in, too). That repertoire, coupled with Marcum’s minuscule walk rate, screams “finesse.” That’s not the case, however. Despite not lighting up the radar gun, he’s employing the approach of a power pitcher.

Marcum’s stuff is fooling plenty of hitters. His swinging strike rate is 10.8% (8.4% MLB average), which is tied for seventh among MLB starters with teammate Brandon Morrow. His overall contact rate is 76.1% (81% MLB average), ninth among starters.

Not surprisingly, Marcum’s fastball doesn’t garner many whiffs — according to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, batters have swung and missed just 4.1% of the time that he throws the pitch (that’s whiffs out of total pitches thrown; the MLB average is around six percent). The rest of his pitches have above-average whiff rates, though. His curve has a 12% whiff%, slightly above the 11.6% MLB average, and his cutter’s causing hitters to come up empty 12.2% (8.4%). But it’s his changeup that’s really flummoxing the opposition. Marcum’s getting whiffs 26.9% of the time that he pulls the string, compared to the 12.6% big league average.

With so few walks, Marcum must be pounding the strike zone, right? Nope. He has located just 42.7% of his pitches within the strike zone. The major league average is 47%. Rather, Marcum is adept at getting batters to chase his stuff off the plate — his 33% outside swing rate is well above the 28.9% MLB average and places ninth among starters. Per Pitch F/X data from Joe Lefkowitz’s site, batters have chased Marcum’s cutter 34.9% of the time (27.5% MLB average, according to THT’s Harry Pavlidis). That’s nothing compared to the changeup, however — they’re hacking at 53.2% of changeups thrown out of the strike zone (30.7% MLB average).

Marcum did serve a DL stint in early July with elbow inflammation, while also missing a start with a blister on his middle finger. The Jays might be playing for keeps in another division, but they’re squarely in no-man’s land in the AL East. As such, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the team take it easy with Marcum down the stretch. In the meantime, he’s plenty useful and is available in slightly more than one-quarter of Yahoo leagues.

After the post-deadline frenzy, here are some possible names on our wire that might help. We’ll try to hit one player each for leagues of differing depths to maximize our utility here.

Ryan Ludwick, Padres (67% owned)
Ludwick left the Cardinals and suddenly hit waiver wires for no good reason. I’m guessing it’s being blamed on the change in parks and lineups, but neither of those is a strong enough reason to leave a good platoon bat on the waiver wire. For one, the Cardinals have only scored 19 runs more than the Padres this year – surprising, no? Another surprising fact is that the park factor for righties in Petco is not as terrible as you might think. Though it’s a nasty 59 for left-handers, righties still manage a 92 park factor for home runs in the park. Guess what the park factor in St. Louis was for right-handed batters. Yeah, 73. So Ludwick may get a boost in home run production, might have a couple fewer ducks on the pond – this doesn’t sound like an epitaph because it isn’t one. ZiPs RoS calls for his OPS to surge from a decent .827 to a much nicer .914, and I believe it. I’ll take Ludwick as my final outfielder, thank you very much.

Jake Westbrook, Cardinals (7% owned)
Instead of trying to give sand to Dave Duncan and asking for a sandwich, it seems the team has finally given him something nice to work with. Westbrook fits right inside Duncan’s wheelhouse as a groundballer (58.9% career) that relies on control (2.79 BB/9 career) and has a mediocre strikeout rate (4.96 K/9 career). He even is using his cutter a lot this year (12.9%)! Maybe getting rid of Ludwick to acquire Westbrook didn’t make a lot of sense, but this pitcher, in this park, with this pitching coach – that makes a lot of sense. It’s not magic, it’s just a good marriage. He’ll get a few more wins with that offense behind him, and he’ll probably pitch close to his lifetime xFIP (4.02) given the fact that the number was accrued in the more difficult league.

Kila Ka’aihue, Royals (1% owned)
It must be August if we’re touting a player that hasn’t started since he was called up, doesn’t have the backing of his organization, and grounded into a game-ending double play in his only major league at-bat of the past three months. Huzzah. The thing is, Ka’aihue has some skills – and an apostrophe – that argue in his favor. A 16% walk rate in the minor leagues is actually an elite skill, even. The power is suspect – he had a career .194 ISO in the minors which isn’t what you’d expect from your first baseman – and there’s the rub when it comes to the lack of at-bats, belief from the home club, and fantasy ownership. But this is a team that doesn’t currently have a left-fielder listed on their depth chart and is running Jose Guillen out there every day at designated hitter. Perhaps they can find room for a guy that will get on base, put up a decent batting average, and maybe run into a few homers along the way. It’s not like Gregor Blanco will do any better despite his .300 batting average.

Ownership numbers provided by Yahoo Fantasy Baseball.

Big update because of the deadline activity and one noteworthy call up…

Rich Harden | Rangers | 26% owned

After a month long stint on a disabled with a strained glute, the game’s premier three true outcomes pitcher returned Saturday and held the Angels to one run over seven innings of work. Despite that stellar outing, we know what Harden is: he’s basically a five inning pitcher with enough swing-and-missability to strikeout a batter an inning, but he’ll kill you in WHIP and chances are ERA as well. (R) ZiPS sees a 4.29 ERA (4.33 FIP) with a 1.40 WHIP and 9.64 K/9 the rest of the way, but it’s a risky proposition. Texas will win him some games with their offense and bullpen, but start him at your own risk. His next comes at the A’s, which might be worth it, but after that Texas runs through the AL East gauntlet.

Jeremy Hellickson | Rays | 6%

The best pitching prospect in the minors is getting the call today for what the Rays say is a one start cameo; they’re just giving their usual starting five an extra day of rest. Hellickson’s minor league numbers are off the charts (2.72 FIP between Double- and Triple-A) and he’ll be facing a Twins’ lineup without Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau tonight. These one start jobs are always risky, even with great young pitchers, but everything lines up well for a quality start out of Hellickson tonight. Chances are he’ll be back up at some point this season, maybe as a reliever. It’s worth noting that he’s listed as a RP exclusively in Yahoo! leagues, which may or may not hurt your flexibility if you splurge for it.

Dan Hudson | Diamondbacks | 3%

We’ve written quite a bit out Hudson recently, so I’ll keep it short. Basically he’s moving to an easier league and into a park ever so slightly better for his fly ball tendencies, which obviously increases his value. Hudson schooled the Mets in CitiField yesterday (8 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 4 K), and his next two starts come at home against the Padres and in Milwaukee.

Edwin Jackson | White Sox | 51%

The guy Hudson was traded for sees his value drop for similar reasons. Jackson’s moving to a tougher league in a more hitter friendly park, so that 6.92 K/9 and 4.02 BB/9 are going to have to improve if he ever plans on being a low-4.00’s ERA guy. Of course that’s been the book on Jackson for years now. His first start as a ChiSox will come Wednesday again one of his many former teams, the Tigers in Detroit. Hard to believe Jackson’s now on his fifth team and is still just 26-years-old.

John Lannan | Nationals | 1%

There’s really not much to discuss as far as Lannan is concerned, we know what he is (4.84 career FIP), but we should talk about the guy he’s replacing, Stephen Strasburg. The Nats understandably took the cautious road when their franchise pitcher had trouble getting loose last Tuesday, eventually placing him on the 15-day DL. He threw on the side over the weekend and felt fine, so hopefully his return won’t be delayed longer than the two weeks plus a day minimum.

For fantasy owners in redraft leagues, we’re reaching the point of the season where trading a guy like Strasburg is good strategy. He’ll soon bump up against his innings limit, and the Nats are going to shut him down at the slightest hint of discomfort, so if you can deal him to upgrade your team elsewhere or land a more reliable starter, then by all means do it.

Ted Lilly | Dodgers | 51%

Lilly got a lot of play before the deadline as a gutsy guy that pitched inside to righties with his 85 mph fastball and all that jazz, but his fantasy value is limited because of moderate strikeout rates and what should be underwhelming ERA’s. Moving from Wrigley to Dodger Stadium will certainly help lessen his 1.46 HR/9 rate this year, and his BABIP (.261) and LOB% (75.7%) luck has been in play for parts of four seasons now. After 700 innings does that luck become a skill? That’s a question for people much smarter than I, but for fantasy value Lilly certainly gets an uptick following the trade. His next two outings came at home against the Padres and Nationals.

Jake Westbrook | Cardinals | 6%

After Mark Buehrle, I’ve always believed that Westbrook was the perfect St. Louis Cardinals pitchers for no reason whatsoever. I guess something about a sinkerballer and Dave Duncan just makes sense. Westbrook’s walk rate has risen following elbow reconstruction, which isn’t surprising since control and command are traditionally the last things to come back. Moving into the NL should improve his peripherals a touch and lower his ERA, possibly into the low-4.00’s, but he’s still not much more than a fifth or sixth fantasy starter. His first start for his new time comes tonight against the punchless Astros.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 18. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:

Trevor Cahill – Yes, his peripherals do not match his ERA, thanks mainly to his league-leading .213 BABIP. But he has a 2.19 ERA in eight games at McAfee Coliseum this week and Cahill has two home starts this period, including one against the Royals. Continue to ride Cahill this week.

Livan Hernandez – No one figured Hernandez would be able to keep it up this late in the season. But thanks to his lowest BABIP (.282) in six years and his lowest HR/FB rate (5.4%) since we have the data in 2002, Hernandez has given the Nationals a chance to win each time he pitches. But the veteran has done much better at home this season, where he has an ERA a full run lower than his road mark. With Hernandez and the Nationals having two West Coast road games this week, bench Hernandez for this period.

Derek Lowe – In his last six starts, Lowe is 1-4 with a 5.03 ERA. Even more surprising is that Lowe is having trouble with the gopher ball, having allowed 6 HR in 34 IP in this stretch. While Lowe does have two home starts this week, his ERA at Turner Field is 4.15 for the season. Move him to the bench until he works his way out of his current funk.

Brett Myers – A pitcher with a lifetime 3.89 xFIP, Myers has a 3.78 mark in the category in 2010. However, his ERA is 68 points beneath that mark, which helped earn Myers a contract extension from the Astros. The veteran has really enjoyed pitching in Minute Maid Park this year, where he is 6-0 with a 2.29 ERA. With two road starts this week, give Myers a spot on the bench.

Jason Vargas – Poor run support has hurt Vargas all year long, but especially in his last nine starts. Only once in that span did the Mariners provide him with more than three runs. But the lefty has given Seattle a chance to win on a regular basis this year. And at Safeco Field he is 5-2 with a 2.23 ERA. Vargas has two home starts, so make sure to activate him this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 18 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.

Halladay, J. Santana, T. Hudson, Gallardo, Pavano, Latos, Lackey, Lewis, Burnett, Beckett, Lilly, J. Sanchez, Buehrle, Kuroda, Richard, Morrow, Wood, Carmona, Saunders, Wells, Westbrook, Duensing, Porcello, Hellickson, Guthrie, Olsen, Cook, Maholm, Lopez, Bannister, Ohlendorf, Bell, West.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 16 pitchers and how they fared.

Dickey – Advised to start. 2.13 ERA, 9 Ks, 0.868 WHIP (2 starts)
Hunter – Advised to start. 2 W, 2.03 ERA, 4 Ks, 0.675 WHIP (2)
Jurrjens – Advised to start. W, 3.21 ERA, 13 Ks, 1.143 WHIP (2)
Pineiro – Advised to sit. 9.00 ERA, 5 Ks, 2.167 WHIP (1)
W. Rodriguez – Advised to start. 2 W, 3.46 ERA, 9 Ks, 0.923 WHIP (2)

As part of the four-player deal that sent long-time ace Roy Oswalt to the City of Brotherly Love, the Houston Astros picked up 27-year-old lefty J.A. Happ. Philly’s third-round pick in the 2004 draft has missed most of the season while rehabbing from a left forearm strain, but he returned to action recently and he’ll make his Astros debut tonight against the Milwaukee Brewers. Is Happ, under team control through 2014, a good bet for long-term success? Let’s take a closer look.

A 6-6, 200 pound product of Northwestern University, Happ has punched out 9.4 batters per nine innings in 281.2 career frames at the Triple-A Level, with 4 BB/9 and 1 HR/9. According to Minor League Splits, Happ’s park-and-luck-adjusted FIP in the International League is 3.76.

With those sort of numbers, you might think that Happ’s a power pitcher. That’s not the case, though — he sits 89-90 MPH with his fastball, supplementing the pitch with a low-80’s slider/cutter, a low-80’s changeup and a scarcely used low-70’s curveball. Prior to the 2009 season, Baseball America mentioned that Happ’s heater “gets on top of hitters quickly” and that he “has deception in his delivery.” However, BA also warned that “Happ lacks a standout pitch and doesn’t figure to get all those strikeouts on fastballs as easily in the majors as he did in Triple-A.” Happ’s high heat in the minors produced lots of balls in the air (40.8 GB%), so concerns over homers were voiced by BA as well.

Happ has thrown 217 major league innings to this point, the majority of which (187.1) coming out of the starting rotation. His ERA looks fantastic, at 3.11. His peripheral stats, by contrast, are more run-of-the-mill. J.A. has K’d 6.59 hitters per nine, issuing 3.48 BB/9. Happ has been a flyball-centric hurler, getting grounders just 36.5% of the time. There’s more than a one-and-a-half run gap between Happ’s actual ERA and his xFIP, which is 4.65.

That huge split is partially predicated on a low BABIP (.273). While more harmful overall because of a much higher slugging percentage, fly balls do have a lower BABIP than ground balls. So, it’s possible that Happ will post a slightly lower BABIP than most pitchers. A mark in the .270’s is pushing it, though — ZiPS projects a .291 rest-of-season BABIP for J.A.

Another, larger reason for the ERA/xFIP gap is an incredibly high rate of stranding base runners — 84.3%. For comparison, the MLB average is in the 70-72% range. You’d be hard-pressed to find evidence that he’s pitching exceptionally well with ducks on the pond, as Happ’s career xFIP with the bases empty is 4.54 and his career xFIP with men on base is 4.77. The big difference? his BABIP with the bases cleared is .330, and with men on, it’s just .202. For comparison, the NL average BABIP with runners on base has ranged from .301 to .306 in recent seasons.

As an extreme fly ball pitcher with average control and modest stuff, Happ looks like more of a decent big league arm than a prime fantasy target. While Minute Maid Park isn’t quite as homer-happy as Citizen’s Bank Park, it also inflates dinger production — six percent for lefties, and 18 percent for righties aiming for the Crawford Boxes. Happ’s a decent pickup in NL-only leagues. If you’re expecting a top-shelf starter, though, you’re going to be disappointed.

It looks like Roy Oswalt is on his way to Philadelphia today, and enterprising fantasy managers facing a trade deadline of their own probably want to know what the implications are for their fantasy team. Let’s take a look.

First, the park move is negligible. According to StatCorner, Minute Maid park boosts home runs for lefties 6% and righties 18% – but the Phillies’ home park boosts home runs 16% for lefties and a whopping 22% for righties. If he starts tomorrow as he is scheduled to do, Oswalt is on pace to make starts against the Dodgers, Giants, Mets, and Nationals (twice) at home in Philadelphia. He averages about 6.45 fly balls per start, so that’s about 32 fly balls, of which 10% would normally leave the park. Boost 3.2 home runs by about 5-9%, and you get somewhere between 3.36 and 3.48 home runs. This might (*might*) mean a home run extra over those five starts combined. The change in home parks is not a big deal, at least for 2010.

What will look better for Oswalt this year are his future competitors. Should the schedule line up correctly with Oswalt starting tomorrow, this is what he is looking at: @WAS, @FLA, LAD, SF, WAS, @SD, @LAD, FLA, @NYM, WAS, NYM, @WAS. Sign me up for some of that please.

Oswalt is currently showing the best strikeout rate of his career (8.37 K/9) and one of the worst groundball rates of his career (43%, 47.4% career) – and is also using the changeup the most he ever has (11.7%, 6.0% career). This is no coincidence. Going off of Harry Pavlidis’ benchmarks for pitch types this year, the changeup gets one of the better whiff percentages in the pantheon of pitches (only splitters and sliders average more whiffs). The lower groundball rate may be attributed to his career-high usage of his slider (16.9%, 10.4% career), which only gets about 45% groundballs according to Pavlidis’ work.

In any case, the added focus on his off-speed stuff has suited Oswalt well. He’ll know have one of the best offenses in baseball behind him, so the 6-12 record should rectify itself, and the schedule lines up well for him during the stretch run. There is little-to-no downside to Oswalt pitching in Philadelphia, unless he insists on driving his tractor from Texas to Pennsylvania.

The Baltimore Orioles are in the process of breaking in a cadre of a highly-acclaimed pitching prospects. Brian Matusz in entrenched in the big league rotation, while Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta have struggled to translate their success in the minors to the highest level. Another blue-chip arm may soon make his major league debut — Zachary Britton could bump the oft-battered Brad Bergesen out of the rotation at some point. Even if Britton doesn’t get the call later this year, he’s a vital part of Baltimore’s rebuilding effort. Let’s examine his long-term value.

The O’s took Britton out of a Texas prep school in the third round of the 2006 draft. The 6-foot-3 lefty added lots of zip to his fastball during his senior year — Baseball America noted that his heater climbed from 86-87 MPH to 92-93 MPH — and he also possessed what BA called a “power curve.” Britton’s velocity did decline during his last few starts leading up to the draft, though. He tossed 34 innings in the Rookie-Level Appalachian League that summer, and he struggled to control the zone (5.6 K/9, 5.3 BB/9, 5.41 FIP). After the season, BA said that Britton sat 86-90 MPH in the Appy League, though they predicted he’d crack the 90’s more frequently as his 180 pound frame filled out.

Baltimore took a cautious approach with Britton in 2007, assigning him to the short-season New York-Penn League. He had 6.4 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.1 HR/9 in 63.2 IP. According to Minor League Splits, Britton’s park-and-luck-adjusted FIP was 3.95, and he generated ground balls at an impressive clip (64.5 GB%). Baseball America said that he showed “the live low-90’s fastball that made him a third-round pick,” while also developing a sharp slider in the instructional league.

In 2008, Britton enjoyed a breakout season in the Low-A South Atlantic League. Pitching 147.1 frames, he used his sinker/slider combo to strike out seven batters per nine innings, hand out 3 BB/9 and give up 0.5 homers per nine. Britton’s adjusted FIP was 3.92, and he maintained his Brandon Webb-like ground ball rate (63.8 GB%). The next year in the High-A Carolina League, Britton whiffed 8.4 per nine, walked 3.5 and coughed up 0.4 HR/9 in 140 innings. Scorching the earth with a 65 GB%, Britton posted a 3.37 adjusted FIP.

Leading up to 2010, Britton earned plenty of superlatives from scouting types. Baseball America named him the number 63 prospect in the game. John Sickels graded him as a B prospect. “Love the grounders, solid strikeout rate, I’m pro-Britton,” said Sickels. ESPN’s Keith Law was an even bigger fan, ranking Britton 25th on his top 100 list. Law liked Britton’s solid punch out rates and extreme ground ball tendencies, and noted the development of the lefty’s changeup:

Britton is a true sinker/slider pitcher with enough velocity to work as a starter and a potential out pitch in the slider to miss bats when he’s not getting ground balls. His sinker has solid-average velocity with legitimate plus sink, and he’ll flash a four-seamer up to 94. His slider — although not as consistent — flashes plus, and he’s willing and able to backfoot it to right-handed hitters, then throwing the sinker away to get a weak grounder or just a swing and miss. His changeup improved over the course of the season to the point that it’s an average pitch or better, eliminating a major concern for sinker/slider guys — a typical weakness against opposite-side hitters…He would slot in very nicely as a No. 2 starter behind Brian Matusz, or as an outstanding No. 3 behind Matusz and Chris Tillman.

Britton began the year with the Bowie Baysox of the Double-A Eastern League, where he posted rates of 7 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and 0.4 HR/9 in 87 innings. He continued to induce grounders like few others (64.1 GB%) while compiling a 3.44 adjusted FIP. Bumped up to the Triple-A International League, Britton has 5.5 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and nary a homer surrendered in 27.2 IP. The 22-year-old is — you guessed it — burning lots of worms with a 72.2 GB%, and his adjusted FIP sits at 3.47.

The chances of Britton getting ample major league innings this season are slim — the O’s aren’t playing for anything of consequence, and the southpaw is a little more than 30 frames away from his previous career high workload. In keeper leagues, though, Britton is an intriguing option. He’s not going to post elite K rates, but that’s mostly because he’s too busy getting batters to smack the ball into the dirt. Britton misses a solid number of bats, and his control has improved enough that it doesn’t figure to hinder his development. While Tillman and Arrieta get more attention, Britton might just be the better long-term buy.

The latest on various rotation spots from around the league…

J.A. Happ | Phillies | 35% owned

Jamie Moyer hit the disabled list with an elbow injury that may or may not be the end his long career, and taking his place in the rotation is last year’s NL RoY runner up. Of course, Happ benefited from a tremendous amount of luck last season (.270 BABIP, 85.2% LOB%, 4.33 FIP, 2.93 ERA) and is unlikely to repeat that performance going forward. (R) ZiPS predicts an ERA close to five (4.80, to be exact) and a surprisingly high 7.00 K/9, but I’d probably push on the ERA and take the under on the strikeouts the rest of the way. Happ starts at the Nationals on Friday, then at the Marlins next week.

Joe Saunders | Diamondbacks | 11%

We don’t need to talk much about the Dan Haren side of yesterday’s blockbuster, he’s an always start guy, but the Diamondbacks got a new starting pitcher in the deal as well. Saunders has pretty much established himself as ~4.8 K/9, mid-4.00’s ERA guy over the last three years, save for his 2008 season that featured a .267 BABIP and 75.7% LOB% (3.41 ERA). Switching to the lesser league will certainly help his overall numbers, but remember that he’s going to the D-Backs. The bullpen will probably blow a bunch of his leads, let a bunch of his inherited runners score, and generally just ruin some of Saunders’ perfectly good work. Mediocre starters on bad teams simply don’t have much fantasy value, though Saunders seems to have retained some name value. He’ll make his Arizona debut in Philadelphia on Thursday.

Ross Detwiler | Nationals | 0%

The sixth overall pick in the 2007 draft returned to the big leagues over the weekend after having surgery to repair his labrum in hip, though he got rocked to the tune of five runs (zero earned!) in 3.2 IP against the Brewers yesterday. I’m a fan because he’s consistently shown a strikeout rate above 8.0 K/9 with a groundball rate around 50% throughout his minor league career. Of course this isn’t the minor leaguers, and Detwiler is still subject to the unpredictable ups and downs associated with 24-year-old pitchers. He makes for a fine matchup sixth or seventh starter in NL only or deep mixed leagues, but not much more than that. He’ll start at home against the Phillies this weekend, then at the D-Backs next week.

Quick Notes: Josh Tomlin is making his big league for the Indians against the Yankees tomorrow, taking the place of the injured Aaron Laffey. Tomlin’s a control artist (1.9 BB/9 in his minor league career) and the Yanks tend to struggle against pitchers they’ve never seen before, but I wouldn’t risk it … Dustin Moseley has replaced Sergio Mitre as Andy Pettitte’s fill in, and will start at the Indians on Thursday.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

Last week, we examined the difficulty the since-demoted Chris Tillman had in retiring big league hitters. But he’s not the only highly-acclaimed Orioles pitching prospect whose transition to the majors has been bumpy. Nine starts into his rookie season, Jake Arrieta has walked far more batters than he has fanned. Just yesterday, the TCU product failed to strike out a single Minnesota Twins batter while issuing four free passes. Why is Arrieta pitching so poorly? Let’s try to find out.

A 6-5, 220 pound right-hander who fell to the fifth round of the 2007 draft due to bonus demands (the O’s anted up with a $1.1 million offer), Arrieta began his pro career in the High-A Carolina League in 2008. He used his 92-94 MPH fastball, mid-80’s slider, high-70’s curveball and mid-80’s change to strike out 9.6 batters per nine innings, but his control was so-so, with 4.1 BB/9. Arrieta’s park-and-league-adjusted FIP, according to Minor League Splits, was 3.42 in 113 innings pitched. Last year, he split the season between the Double-A Eastern League and Triple-A International League. Arrieta had a combined 8.8 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and a 3.91 adjusted FIP in 150.2 innings.

Arrieta was named the 99th-best prospect in the game by Baseball America prior to the 2010 season, with BA saying his “pure stuff compares with any of the Orioles’ elite young pitchers, but his command puts him a notch behind them.” ESPN’s Keith Law ranked Arrieta 90th on his top 100, calling him “a four-pitch guy with no plus pitch but nothing below-average.” Prior to his early-June promotion, Arrieta had 7.9 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 and a 4.11 adjusted FIP in 73 IP. The good-not-great K rate and inflated walk rate portended some turbulent times in the majors — Arrieta’s major league equivalent line called for 6.3 K/9 and 5.35 BB/9 in the show.

To this point, the 24-year-old’s control of the zone has been even worse. He’s got 3.91 K/9 and 5.21 BB/9 in 48.1 IP, with an xFIP (6.10) that’s more depressing than his 5.40 ERA. As pointed out in the Tillman article, it’s important not to draw any definitive conclusions from a small sample of pitching. But right now, he’s not missing bats and he’s not locating his pitches.

Arrieta’s swinging strike rate is 5.5%, a figure which puts him in the same company as Livan Hernandez and Ryan Rowland-Smith. For comparison, the MLB average is 8.4%. He’s getting batters to expand their zones fairly often, with a 32.1 outside swing percentage (28.9% MLB average), but they’re making a ton of contact on those out-of-zone pitches. Arrieta’s outside contact rate is 80.5% (66.5% MLB average). With hitters also squaring up plenty of in-zone offerings (his 90.6% Z-Contact rate is above the 88.2% big league average), his overall contact rate is 86.4%. That’s well above the 80.9% MLB average.

According to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, Arrieta’s fastball is getting whiffs 4.6% of the time that he throws it (5-6% MLB average). His changeup (14.7%) has gotten more whiffs than average (12.6%), but his slider (11.1%) falls short of the 13.6% MLB average. Arrieta’s curve has been a bat magnet — it has a one percent whiff rate (11.6% MLB average).

As R.J. Anderson pointed out, Arrieta isn’t putting away hitters when he gets in 0-and-2 counts. Baseball-Reference shows that he has gotten in 0-2 counts 22% of the time, close to the 23% MLB average. In those situations, Arrieta has been bashful about breaking out his breaking stuff — he’s using his fastball 61% of the time in 0-2 counts, compared to the 49% MLB average. He has yet to record a K in an 0-2 count.

On a related note, he’s also struggling to throw strikes. Arrieta’s first pitch strike percentage is 54.3%, compared to the 58.8% MLB average. Just 43.4% of his pitches have caught part of the plate (47% MLB average). His fastball is getting strikes 63.6% (62-64% MLB average). Everything else, though, is missing often. The slider has been thrown for a strike 53.8% (63.4% MLB average), the curve 51% (58%) and the change 55.9% (60.7%).

Arrieta’s throwing his fastball for strikes, but he hasn’t gotten a feel for his slider, curve or change. That has led to lots of hitter’s counts. And, when Arrieta has backed the hitter into a corner, he’s not sealing the deal — in plate appearances reaching a two-strike count, he has gotten a K 23.9% (36.5% AL average) and he has walked the hitter 18.2% (8.3% AL average). That tends to happen when a pitcher can’t get a called strike or a swing-and-a-miss with his breaking and off-speed stuff.

Again, all of these numbers come in less than 50 innings. It’s not unusual for a pitcher to stumble during his first taste of big league action. Arrieta doesn’t look like a future front-of-the-rotation type — as Law said, none of his pitches are awe-inspiring, and BA noted that his control isn’t great — but he’s still someone to monitor in keeper leagues. As for the present moment, you might want to let Arrieta work out the kinks on somebody else’s roster.