Archive for Starting Pitchers

On a night when Ricky Romero was a Desmond Jennings‘ home run away from a no-hitter, when the White Sox were thankful that the rain saved them from three more innings of Phil Hughes, and when David Huff held down the potent Red Sox’s offense only to be being demoted for his troubles, perhaps the most surprising pitching line came courtesy of the Angels’ Ervin Santana. The right-hander shutdown the Twins en route to the first complete game following a no-hitter since Tommy Greene did it for the 1991 Phillies, for a line of 9 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K.

It isn’t at all uncommon for a pitcher to struggle after a no-hitter or perfect game: Francisco Liriano lasted just three innings against the Tigers after throwing a season high 123 pitches in no-hitting the White Sox and Edwin Jackson made it out of the sixth inning just once in the month after his 149-pitch no-no. Two factors helped Santana avoid their fate on Tuesday. First, his no-hitter wasn’t as strenuous as many no-hitters are; he threw just 105 pitches, barely above his season average of 102. Second, the Twins didn’t exactly wear him out with their approach. While Santana did tie a season high with 121 pitches, he got seven first or second pitch outs and had innings of just seven, eight, nine, and 11 pitches. Santana has given up more than three runs in an outing just once in his last nine starts, but he’s rostered in 89 percent of ESPN leagues and 72 percent of Yahoo! leagues, so it’s worth checking if he’s on the wire, especially in shallow leagues.

While it’s unlikely that Santana or Romero (owned in 89 percent of Yahoo! leagues and 100 percent of ESPN leagues) are available to you, Tuesday’s other impressive AL starter probably is. Phil Hughes (owned in 36 percent of Yahoo! leagues and 24 percent of ESPN leagues) was cruising against the White Sox before rain shortened his start, as he needed just 65 pitches to make it through the sixth inning. He has three quality starts in four outings since the All-Star break, but isn’t yet logging many innings in his starts, which is why his low pitch count last time out is especially notable.

Hughes is still relying heavily on his four-seam fastball, and hasn’t yet gotten his cutter back to it previously effective state. The key for Hughes -— and the point at which he returns to being a solid fantasy options —- is his feel for his secondary pitches, both his cut-fastball and curveball. Until his command comes back, hitters can simply wait for Hughes to throw fastballs if he gets into trouble. While his four-seamer is good, it isn’t good enough to consistently beat hitters who are waiting for it.

Despite Tuesday’s good start, Hughes still isn’t showing enough to be worth adding in shallow or even normal mixed leagues, though in AL-only or deep mixed, he may be a worthy gamble -— especially since his next three starts are against the Angels, Royals, and Twins. Nevertheless, it’s worth keeping an eye on his next start, if he can keep his pitch counts low and show improvement in his secondary offerings, he could be a solid addition to a team with playoff aspirations.

Some ottoneu cats have to look to the future, just like the major league teams. How much more to the future can you look than signing 2011 draftees?

Of course, there’s a lot of attrition between now and then. So you have to focus on the top talent. The beginning of the first round boasted two such top talents, Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer. Cole, with super agent Scott Boras puling the strings, hasn’t signed yet. But the third overall pick, Bauer, has signed. How much might you pay for a recently drafted college pitcher? Let’s check in with ottoneu owner and FanGraphs writer Jack Moore, who recently won an auction for Bauer.

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Now that the trade deadline dust has settled, let’s look at a pair of players with rising fantasy stock following moves that were made (and not made)…

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Here is the latest update to Week 18 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: Scherzer, Chen, Beaven.

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Hughes, Fister, Huff.

Let’s take a look at Bruce Chen. Only family members, Royals fans and fantasy players could tell you that Chen had 12 Wins and a respectable 4.17 ERA last year for the Royals. In his last seven starts of 2010, Chen was 4-0 with a 2.64 ERA and a 1.015 WHIP. Still he was owned in less than 10 percent of fantasy leagues on Opening Day 2011.

According to Joe Lefkowitz’ site, Chen threw four pitches roughly the same percentage of the time in 2010. This year, he is throwing far fewer four-seam fastballs, roughly the same amount of sinkers and change-ups and more sliders than anything else. The slider is his primary pitch versus LHB while the changeup serves the same purpose for RHB.

Chen won his first three decisions and he was 4-1 with a 3.59 ERA after his start on May 5th. But he went on the disabled list with a strained back muscle, which caused him to miss seven weeks of the season. In his first five starts back from the DL, Chen posted a 2.90 ERA but was only 1-2. In his last start, the Royals lefty had his worst outing of his major league career, as he gave up 10 ER and saw his ERA jump from 3.30 to 4.29 on the season.

Some might say that was merely regression hitting all at once for Chen, as now his ERA is right in line with his xFIP (4.56). He did seem to be doing it with smoke and mirrors, as Chen has a career-low 5.45 K/9 and a 74.6 LOB%.

Overall this year, Chen has a 3.11 ERA at home and a 6.03 mark on the road. He’s allowed 7 HR in 31.1 IP in road games this year and 5 HR in 46.1 IP at Kauffman Stadium, one of the toughest parks to homer in this season.

This week Chen gets home starts against the Orioles and Tigers. Both teams are above-average in the AL in raw HR totals. Detroit also does well against LH starters, with a .735 against southpaw starters. Baltimore, however, ranks 13th in the 14-team loop with a .664 OPS against LH starters.

Likely available on the waiver wire, you could do worse then Chen as a streaming option for his two home starts this week. If your league has daily transactions, his game against Baltimore looks like the better matchup of his two in this upcoming period.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 18

John Danks – After getting beat up in May, Danks was hitting his stride in June until he had to leave his last start of the month with a strained oblique. He came back after the All-Star break and picked up right where he left off. In his last two starts, Danks has allowed just 1 ER in 13 IP and he notched 16 Ks in that span. Because of his horrendous start (0-8, 5.25 ERA), Danks’ overall numbers still look poor. But he is pitching well and should be in your lineup, even with a start against the Yankees.

John Lackey – In his last eight starts, Lackey has alternated between good and bad each start, with four outings with a game score 41 or lower and four with a game score 55 or higher. If this pattern continues, he’s due for a good start his first outing against the Indians and due for a poor one against the Yankees. Regardless of pattern, Lackey has two home starts this week. His ERA in Fenway is 6.54, which should be enough to slide him over to the bench this week.

Jake Peavy – The fact that Peavy is pitching at all is a minor miracle after he suffered a complete tear of the latissimus dorsi muscle from his shoulder. It really should be no surprise that he’s just a shadow of his former self. His fastball velocity is down nearly two mph from his heyday with the Padres and he throws his heater just 51 percent of the time now. In his last five starts, Peavy is 0-3 with a 6.67 ERA. He should not be in your lineup and it’s questionable if he should even be on your roster at this point in time.

Ervin Santana – It’s not unusual for a pitcher to suffer a letdown after pitching a no-hitter but Santana has been pitching great over his last eight starts and he has favorable matchups this week. He has two home starts and up first is the Twins, who have scored the third-fewest away runs in the AL this season. Next up is the Mariners, who have scored the second-fewest road runs in the league. While Santana has not displayed any significant home/road split this year, he has had some trouble with the gopher ball in his home park and he faces two of the bottom three HR teams this week. Keep him active in your lineup.

Javier Vazquez – Last season was a year to forget for Vazquez and 2011 started off in much the same fashion. But in his last eight starts, Vazquez has recorded 4 W, a 2.40 ERA, a 1.233 WHIP and 39 Ks in 48.2 IP. He may only be a six-inning pitcher at this point in his career, but he’s giving the Marlins a chance to win each time out. And the Marlins lead the NL in runs scored since the All-Star break. Get him in your lineup this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 18 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lincecum, Beckett, Hamels, Kershaw, Sabathia, J. Garcia, Carpenter, Jurrjens, Kennedy, Greinke, Cain, Romero, Lewis, Cahill, Chacin, Tomlin, Norris, Luebke, Zambrano, Correia, Maholm, Hughes, Arroyo, Duensing, Fister, Lannan, Pelfrey, L. Hernandez, Kendrick, Wells, Hand, Huff, Cook, Simon.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 16 pitchers and how they fared.

Baker – Advised to start. W, 5 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.800 WHIP. 5 IP, 0 ER
Buehrle – Advised to start. W, 3 Ks, 2.57 ERA, 0.857 WHIP, 7 IP, 2 ER
Capuano – Advised to start. 11 Ks, 5.27 ERA, 1.317 WHIP, 13.2 IP, 8 ER
Hammel – Advised to start. 8 Ks, 10.13 ERA, 2.531 WHIP, 4.1 IP, 7 ER
Marquis – Advised to sit. W, 11 Ks, 3.21 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, 14 IP, 5 ER

With the trade deadline fast approaching, owners playing in league-specific formats are going to be in for a hard time. When players change leagues, some owners are going to get hosed and some owners are going to get lucky. With all of that in mind, here’s some advice on how to handle a handful of starters who could get dealt.

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As hard as it is to concentrate with our fearless leader’s struggles on our minds, we must soldier on. Today, we’ll take a break from the National League outfield (don’t drop Nate Schierholtz until you know where Carlos Beltran will end up and what the Giants will do to fit him into the gargantuan holes in their lineup, since he could end up with the bigger part of the platoon with Cody Ross) to instead have some fun with the new statistic on our site. Yup, it’s SIERA time.

The thumbnail about SIERA is that creator Matt Swartz found that strikeout rate interacted with a pitcher’s BABIP and HR/FB. He also found that elite ground ball rates lead to better BABIPs. Because of these interactions, some pitchers should be compared to other excellent pitchers in those categories instead of being tied to the league average. We might find some aces that look better with SIERA, for sure, but it’s worth running the list in order to see who SIERA likes best. Another weapon in the fight against the luck dragon. Expect fabulous FIP-SIERA and xFIP-SIERA posts later in the week.

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On Saturday, I looked at the top five pitchers whose K% suggested their K/9 rates should be higher. Given the different denominators between the two metrics, it came as no surprise that pitchers who have benefited from good fortune found themselves toward the top of the list as they had fewer opportunities to punch hitters out. Today I look at the other side of the coin, those pitchers whose K/9 marks are higher than their K% would suggest.

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Here is the latest update to Week 17 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: Hanson, Below.

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Sabathia.

Let’s take a look at Duane Below. At the beginning of the year it seemed unlikely that Below would be a two-start candidate even in September, much less July. After all, he was coming off a season at Double-A at age 24 where he went 7-12 with a 4.93 ERA, having allowed 17 HR in 126 IP.

Below started the year in Triple-A where he posted a 9-4 record with a 3.13 ERA before getting the call to Detroit. In his last eight games, Below was 5-1 with a 2.60 ERA. With Phil Coke struggling as a starting pitcher, the Tigers were looking for a new arm to fill out the rotation.

He got a nice break in his major league debut, as he faced the Oakland A’s, who are 28th with an average runs per game mark of 3.56 in 2011. Below went five innings, allowed three runs, only one of which was earned, and got a no-decision. The outing was enough to keep him in the rotation and he is set to face off against the White Sox and Angels this week, the latter one a home start.

The lefty Below is not overpowering but he did induce a lot of groundballs in his start against the A’s. But even though he gave up just six fly balls, one of them went for a home run. His minor league numbers suggested a pitcher who had trouble with the gopher ball and that played true to form in his MLB debut.

Below got good results early with his curve and changeup but it’s important to note he didn’t generate many swings out of the strike zone (O-Swing% of 18.8) and his SwStr% was just 3.9. While it’s important to realize that it’s just one start, those are not numbers that inspire confidence for continued success in the majors.

The punsters and headline writers will no doubt enjoy the wordplay that a fellow who has an adverb/preposition for a surname offers them. But fantasy players should not share their enthusiasm and let others pick Below off of the waiver wire.

First, another fist pump for David Appelman’s addition of K% to the site. No longer do I have to surf on over to an enemy site to get this information. As was noted in some of the comments on the announcement post, K/9 will be lower than it should be if the pitcher has benefited from some good fortune that allowed him to face fewer batters than expected. So, assuming the pitcher’s luck does in fact regress, he should see his strikeout rate rise. Here are the five pitchers with the largest difference between their ranking in K% and K9.

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