Trevor Cahill was supposed to become a premier starting pitcher. Oakland’s second-round pick in the ’06 draft punched out around ten batters per nine innings in the minors, compelled opponents to chop the ball into the dirt when they managed to make contact, and was dubbed the 11th-best prospect in the game by Baseball America prior to 2009. Last year, Cahill sliced his ERA from 4.63 during his rookie season to a svelte 2.97.

Entering 2011, fantasy owners have anointed Cahill as an elite option — MockDraftCentral shows he’s being drafted just slightly after the likes of Josh Johnson, Tommy Hanson, and Francisco Liriano. While Cahill undoubtedly made progress last year, the gap between his perceived acedom and actual performance might leave those shelling out a top pick with a sour taste in their mouths.

Cahill did make across-the-board improvements from 2009 to 2010. While not exactly hearkening back to those high-K days on the farm, Cahill’s strikeout per plate appearance rate climbed from 11.6% to 15.1% (18.2% MLB average). He also issued fewer free passes, paring his BB/PA total from 9.3% to 8.1% (8.7% MLB average).

The right-hander’s ground ball rate, 47.8% during his rookie season, shot up to 56%. That was fifth-highest among qualified starting pitchers, trailing just Tim Hudson, Justin Masterson, Derek Lowe and Jake Westbrook. Like those guys, Cahill’s sinker was the root cause: he got a grounder 62.1% of the time he threw the pitch, up from a MLB average 52% in 2009.

With more K’s, fewer walks and bushels of grounders, Cahill’s Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) fell from 4.92 to 4.11. Much better, but nowhere near his actual sub-three ERA. The 1.14 run divide between Cahill’s xFIP and ERA was fourth-largest among qualified starters:

Cahill was able to outperform his peripherals due in large part to a .236 batting average on balls in play, lowest among all qualified starters. He had .153 BABIP on ground balls, compared to a .231 American League average and a .205 BABIP for all A’s pitchers.

It’s true, the 23-year-old has some built-in advantages that other pitcher’s don’t. The Coliseum suppresses offense, and the Athletics were a superb defensive team last year. Per Ultimate Zone Rating, The A’s saved about 39 runs more than an average squad in 2010. Josh Willingham aside, Oakland will again feature slick D in 2011. But even accounting for those factors doesn’t wipe away Cahill’s ERA/xFIP split.

According to Baseball-Reference’s Play Index Tool (details here), Cahill would have surrendered nine more earned runs last year if he had pitched in a neutral offensive environment in the AL instead of The Coliseum. As mentioned above, the Athletics’ D saved about 39 runs according to UZR. If we assume that Cahill got a defensive boost proportionate to the number of innings he pitched out of Oakland’s total (196.2 out of 1,431.2), then Cahill’s teammates saved him a little more than five runs.

So, Cahill’s ballpark and defense saved him around 14 runs total. In a neutral park behind an average defensive team, his ERA would have been about 3.60. Put another way, the Coliseum and Oakland’s defense explain about six-tenths of a run of the 1.14 run difference between Cahill’s ERA and xFIP. However, that still leaves a half-run gap that looks to be the product of good fortune on balls in play, above and beyond what could be expected even with a pitcher’s park and rangy fielders.

For 2011, PECOTA and Oliver project an ERA in the 3.60-3.70 range, while ZiPS is less bullish:

PECOTA: 190 IP, 6.1 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.57 ERA
Oliver: 185 IP, 5.7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1 HR/9, 3.68 ERA
ZiPS: 195 IP, 5.5 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.07 ERA

Cahill’s in his early twenties, has upside, and benefits from both a home park that saps bats and a strong defense unit behind him. That being said, he’s not yet the ace that his 2010 ERA suggests. He could get to that level one day, but drafting him as though he’s already there is a recipe for disappointment.

Identifying and acquiring the top rookie pitchers are one of fantasy’s great challenges, so let’s take a look at some the youngsters set to cut their teeth in the Junior Circuit this summer…

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There really hasn’t been much player movement amongst the starting pitchers in the AL, so let’s just call it one old face in one new place.  After throwing a total of 4 innings in 2 years due to shoulder bursitis, surgery to correct it, and a lengthy rehab, Brandon Webb is finally headed back to the mound in 2011.  He’s obviously got plenty working against him still and likely won’t be ready for the start of the season, but for a $1 investment, the former NL Cy Young award winner could be worth owning this year. Read the rest of this entry »

You guys probably know the drill by now. We RotoGraphers stayed up all night with calculators in hand, glasses firmly in place, and computers in front of us, as we sat comfortably in David Appelman’s mom’s basement. We brainstormed until the only images in our head were C.C. Sabathia and Bartolo Colon together at last on the buffet line. Today I unveil the results of this night to remember and bring to you our American League starting pitcher rankings. I will also be your AL SP tour guide for the rest of the season.

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This morning we look at two young risers, now let’s look at two old fallers…

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Every year, a number of starting pitchers get drafted higher than they should because of their successful performances the year prior. Call me crazy, but I tend to avoid these pitchers. Why? Because the expected cost outweighs the projected output. Instead, I set my sights on pitchers still on the upswing, and even a few coming off disappointing seasons who are likely to bounce back.

Not every pitcher can be Roy Halladay or CC Sabathia, guys who can actually sustain their peaks across multiple years. But that doesn’t stop owners from latching onto a pitcher following a big season, or even an outlier season, hoping that said pitcher has established a new talent level. In most cases, though, the wave has already crested.

This strategy gets tricky because it requires: 1) distinguishing between pitchers still capable of better and those about to take a step back; and 2) accepting that there are simply some pitchers you won’t own come draft day. The five below fall into that category for me this year.

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“He’s a prime sleeper candidate”. “He has great breakout potential”. “He has huge upside this season”. Blah blah blah. Sometimes I get bored reading about all the potential sleepers and breakouts for the coming season. Too much optimism. I need some balance in my life. Avoiding the season’s busts, or in this case, the pitchers who will not earn their cost, may be just as important as unearthing the surprise stars.

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As we done with all the other positions so far, let’s take a look at some NL starters poised to climb up the rankings this season. In this case, you’re getting a pair of youngsters…

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Yesterday, Zach Sanders unveiled NL Starting Pitcher Rankings for the 2011 season. Braves righty Jair Jurrjens was ominously listed under the “Doubt” tier. And there are reasons to have doubt about the 25-year-old: Jurrjens is coming off an injury-wracked 2010 in which his Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) climbed for a third straight year. The former Tigers farmhand has whiffed and walked a similar number of batters over that time frame, but Jurrjens’ plummeting ground ball rate should have you thinking twice before drafting him.

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It’s no secret that I’m a big American League East fan. I root for the Rays, and generally enjoy being in competition with the Red Sox, Yankees, Jays, and Orioles. It’s just a better brand of baseball. With some hitter friendly ballparks and many of the best offenses in the game under one divisional umbrella it can prove a pretty tough for task for any pitcher. The two names I’m going to look at today have escaped the AL Beast and hopefully can find more fantasy value in the senior circuit.

We’ll start with someone who will always hold a special place in my baseball heart, Matt Garza. The special place Garza holds is due to his brilliance in Game 7 of the 2008 ALCS, but that’s neither here nor there. He was shipped to the Cubs this off season for a bundle of prospects. While Garza has put together back to back seasons with 200+IP and a sub 4.00 ERA, looks can be deceiving. His FIP in those seasons were 4.17 and 4.42, and that’s with a fantastic Tampa Bay defense backing him up. Another benefit Garza received while with the Rays was Tropicana Field itself. It’s not generally thought of as a great pitcher’s park – even though most seasons it is – but the Trop does do a good job of keeping the ball in the field of play.

Garza has a tendency to give up the long ball away from the Trop as evidenced by his road HR/FB ratios of 12.3% and 11.3%, in contrast to 8.5% at home, over the past two seasons. His FB% has also increased every season since 2007. None of that information is good for a pitcher who will call Wrigley Field home this year. Getting away from the AL East automatically breathes life into Garza’s season, but consider his peripherals come draft day.

A return trip to the Bronx was likely the worst thing that could have happened to Javier Vazquez’s fantasy life. After a fantastic 2009 season for Atlanta in which he posted the highest K/9 and lowest FIP of his career, Vazquez was, and I mean this in the nicest way possible, completely and utterly useless for the Yankees in 2010. His K/9 fell to a 10 year worst of 6.92, his ERA ballooned to 5.32 and BB/9 was an unsightly 3.72. The culprit looks to be a big loss in velocity. Usually sitting at around 90-91 mph, Javy dipped into the 88 mph range and even dipped below that a bit before finishing at a 88.7 mph average. He’s always been more of a fly ball pitcher, and to succeed in doing that you have to miss bats. You’re not going to miss anything at 88 mph.

As Dave Cameron noted, when pitchers experience a decrease in their fastball velocity like Vazquez’s they do not get it back. Vazquez is no longer a young man; the miles he’s put on his arm over his excellent career look to be catching up to him. He’s worth a late, late round gamble in most leagues, as moving from Yankee Stadium to Sun Life Stadium will help any pitcher, but a return trip to the NL may not be enough to get Vazquez back on the right track.