Our first trade! The FanGraphs/ottoneu Experts’ League has finally consummated a trade. I gave Andy Behrens my $1 Aaron Harang, and he gave me his $1 Placido Polanco. Early polling on the ottoneu Facebook page (like it! doooo it!) did not favor me, so I’ll do a quick defense. For your reference, the full post-draft rosters are listed in the introduction post here.

I realize that on value alone, I’d rather have Aaron Harang for my team. There, I’ve got that out of the way. Harang, perhaps finally healthy after two years where he only managed about 270 innings combined, is looking good. He’s got his trademark control back, and just enough strikeouts to make the package work. Polanco is also playing well, but his .128 ISO would be his best number in eight years, and his .375 BABIP will surely regress. I’ll take the ZiPs RoS and take a .300-ish batting average with 13-15 combined steals and home runs.

And that’s the key. I’ll take those numbers. I’m not sure Harang would have cracked my lineup too often. He’s still an extreme flyball pitcher – his 33% ranks 12th-worst among qualified pitchers and fits right into his career line (37.8%). As such, he’s probably a confident start about 60% of the time in mixed leagues. On my team, he fit in right behind Josh Johnson, Mat Latos, Ricky Romero, Jaime Garcia, John Danks, Wandy Rodriguez and Derek Holland. You have enough innings for about 6 starters’ worth of work, so basically I was betting that Rodriguez and Holland could handle that final starters’ worth of a workload. That’s a bet I think I can win.

We already looked around at the league and determined that there were only a few teams with extra MIs available. With Ryan Raburn looking like a platoon bat in real life and fantasy, I needed an MI. I offered Aaron Harang for Howie Kendrick (ZiPs RoS .280 with 24 combined HR and SB) and was quickly rebuffed. The best other deal I managed to find was a $5 Alcides Escobar for my $2 Matt LaPorta. I didn’t mind the deal, but my firstbasemen, in a 12-team league, are Gaby Sanchez, Mitch Moreland, Justin Smoak and Matt LaPorta. I think I need to keep all of those guys to see who works out – they’re all flawed.

So, in the end, I traded away a cheap superfluous older player to another team for their cheap, superfluous player. Kudos to user DScott for predicting Behrens as my trading partner. It seemed like a good match. Participant Chad Young (Amateur Hour), when writing about this league on his blog, agreed for the most part – even though it cost him a chance at Matt LaPorta. What do you guys think?

When searching each week for those under-owned gems for deep league use, it reminds me how bad I feel for those Only-leaguers dealing with an injury. Your replacement options are throw up inducing and you’re basically flipping a coin between two hitters that get five at-bats a week. That is no fun! Though the first player discussed below is most certainly owned in all NL-Only leagues, he should be available in deeper mixed leagues and would therefore be worth a look.

Read the rest of this entry »

Today’s emphasis: versatility. There’s nothing better than a quality player eligible at multiple positions…

Read the rest of this entry »

Ground ball rate is one of the three primary peripherals, or skills as I like to call them, that make up the trifecta (which also includes K/9 and BB/9) I look at first when evaluating a pitcher. Simply from my experience and without the benefit of specific research to back this up, it seems that a pitcher’s GB% is generally pretty consistent from year to year, and certainly more so than his strikeout and walk rates. The only real ways for a pitcher to increase his ground ball rate would be to alter his pitch mix, learn and start throwing a new pitch that induces grounders more frequently or consciously locate pitches lower in the strike zone than in past seasons. All of these methods are difficult and require a pitcher to start doing something differently than he had been doing previously. GB% stabilizes at about 150 batters faced, a level at which the top pitchers in the category have nearly reached. As a result, large increased in GB% should be taken seriously.

Read the rest of this entry »

Here is the latest update to Week 4 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update:

F. Hernandez, Liriano, Young, Nova, Lannan, Maholm, Litsch

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Dickey, Colon, Bedard, Blackburn

Of the new pitchers let’s look at Jesse Litsch. Earlier this season, Litsch got caught up in a numbers game and was sent to the minors because he had an available option while Jo-Jo Reyes did not. Litsch had been in three starts before the demotion and pitched well in two of them. He made just one appearance for Triple-A Las Vegas and was pulled after only three innings to make sure he was available to pitch early this week for Toronto.

Litsch is not overpowering but he throws at least five pitches, generally has good control and gets lots of ground ball outs. In his three appearances in the majors this year, he’s even fanned 16 in 17.1 IP, although he’s allowed more walks than he usually does. But with his ERA below his career average, and his FIP and xFIP both below his current ERA, it’s a tradeoff that has worked well for Litsch, assuming he can keep it up.

He’s throwing strikes early, with an F-Strike% of 60.5 percent, which is a career best. Also, Litsch is setting a personal record with a 10.7 SwStr%. He’s done this with a change in his pitching pattern. Litsch has almost completely abandoned his curve ball, throwing more sliders and change-ups, instead.

Litsch rejoins the Blue Jays in time to make road starts in Texas and New York. It’s not the ideal way to get back to the majors and it is hard to recommend putting him in your lineup this week. But Litsch is a pitcher to monitor going forward. Check his peripherals in these two starts and see if he’s still getting ground balls and strikeouts.

The Yankees and the Rangers rank 1-2 in the American League in runs per game. Therefore, Litsch could give up a lot of runs this week and still be a pitcher worth adding if he holds his spot in the rotation and pitches well in other regards.

Last week’s Sunday night look was Wandy Rodriguez. He had 14 IP, 5 ER, 13 H, 16 Ks and a 1-1 record with a QS.

On Thursday, I posted an update on three American League rookie pitchers, including Seattle phenom Michael Pineda. One of my criticisms of Pineda was his 56% fly ball rate at the time, which should lead to lots of home runs, despite the fact that he had yet to give up even one long ball. One of the commenters noted Pineda’s fantastic average fastball velocity, currently sitting at 96.1 MPH, and opined that it will be more difficult for hitters to homer off of him, leading to a sustainable depressed HR/FB ratio compared to the league average. Not satisfied with just taking his word for it, I decided to test this hypothesis.

Read the rest of this entry »

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 4.

A.J. Burnett – Despite being in the majors since 1999, Burnett has not thrown more than 39 games to any one catcher. He has 12 catchers who have caught at least 10 games of his in the majors. By far the worst of those was Jorge Posada, with whom Burnett had a 5.61 ERA. Russell Martin has caught all four starts by Burnett this year and he has a 3-0 record. Burnett’s ERA this year is an unimpressive 4.37 but he’s had some trouble with the gopher ball, as his xFIP checks in at 3.89. With two home starts this week, make sure Burnett is active.

Kyle Drabek – After opening the season with three straight strong starts, Drabek was knocked around (5.1 IP, 4 ER) in his last outing. This week he has road starts in Texas and New York, a tough go for anyone, much less a rookie. Drabek has a 5.63 BB/9 and has allowed 8 BB in his last 11 IP. The Rangers and Yankees are in the top four in the American League in runs scored and no pitcher can survive putting extra runners on base against those offenses. Move Drabek to the bench this week.

Matt Harrison – Shoulder injuries the past two seasons have kept Harrison from throwing many innings. A lack of success versus RHB has led to ERAs of 6.11 and 4.71, respectively, the past two years. But Harrison is healthy now and a new pitching approach has led to a very strong start. Last year, Harrison threw a slider 15 percent of the time and it was his worst offering, with a Pitch Type Value of -3.7, the worst of his four pitches. This year, he is throwing fewer sliders (8.5%) and more changeups (18%) and the results have been impressive. RHB have a .147/.238/.267 slash line in 86 PA this year. Last year RHB posted a .770 OPS against him. While his 1.88 ERA will undoubtedly go up, Harrison’s xFIP of 3.85 is nearly a run lower than his lifetime mark. Keep putting Harrison into your lineup.

Daniel Hudson – One of the early leaders in the biggest positive spread between his ERA (5.92) and his FIP (3.55), Hudson has been victimized this year by two things: a very low LOB% (53.0) and a high BB/9 (4.44). Last year Hudson had a 2.55 BB/9, so he is certainly capable of throwing more strikes. This week he squares off against the Phillies and Cubs, two teams that are below average in drawing walks. The Phillies are tied for 12th while the Cubs are 14th. Look for Hudson to break into the win column this week and keep him active.

Justin Masterson – Previously, Masterson has been a pitcher whose peripherals were much better than his actual results. But this year he has a 1.71 ERA and a 4.06 xFIP. His lifetime xFIP is 4.00 so Masterson is pitching like he normally does but is just having much better results. A .256 BABIP without allowing a HR helps explain the difference. Masterson’s early success is unlikely to last all season. He still is murder on RHB while he struggles versus LHB. He goes up against the Royals and Tigers, who can stack their lineup with lefties. Give Masterson the week off if you can.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 4 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lee, Weaver, Cain, G. Gonzalez, J. Garcia, Nolasco, Buchholz, Lowe, Lewis, Garza, Floyd, Arroyo, Kennedy, Britton, Zimmermann, Narveson, Davis, Norris, Dickey, Hochevar, Rogers, Coke, Colon, Bedard, Blackburn, Morton, Garland, Moseley, Humber, Russell.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 2 pitchers and how they fared.

Buehrle – Advised to start. 6 Ks, 2.40 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 4 ER, 15 IP
Correia – Advised to sit. 1 K, 6.00 ERA, 1.167 WHIP, 4 ER, 6 IP
Dempster – Advised to sit. W, 13 Ks, 7.15 ERA, 1.589 WHIP, 9 ER, 11.1 IP
McClellan – Advised to start. 2 W, 6 Ks, 1.39 ERA, 1.308 WHIP, 2 ER, 13 IP
Rogers – Advised to start. W, 2 Ks, 4.78 ERA, 1.941 WHIP, 3 ER, 5.2 IP

For years I have preached about the immense depth at starting pitching.  You can find plenty of quality starters for cheap in your draft and, with the help of the waiver wire, can build a successful fantasy rotation without having to invest heavily in an ace or two.  With a nice complement of some quality relievers, you can go cheap on starters and, in turn, bulk up on better hitters.  In the end, your team dominates in the offensive categories, puts up a solid showing in almost all of the pitching categories, and leaves you at the top of your standings by season’s end. Read the rest of this entry »

When I first started playing fantasy baseball around 15 years ago and for many years after that, it was ingrained in my head that I should never draft rookie pitchers or add them to my roster (12 team mixed leagues, obviously in Only leagues, this would be difficult to pull off). I followed this for a while, always avoiding rookies and ignoring the hype. But as new statistical methods of evaluating pitchers became more mainstream and I learned how to use these methods, I realized that rookie pitchers should not automatically be discarded and expected to deliver minimal fantasy value. So I now have no problem drafting and rostering rookie pitchers and evaluate each pitcher on his own, forgetting about whether the rookie label is slapped on or not. With that wordy introduction out of the way, let’s take a look at how some of the top rookie pitchers have fared so far.

Read the rest of this entry »

In today’s edition of NL Starting Pitchers, we look at three starters who aren’t as good as they seem to be.

Read the rest of this entry »