A little over a month ago, I compared the early 2011 average fastball velocity of starting pitchers with their 2010 marks. Looking back, I realize that was quite an early look, only about a week and a half into the season. So after another month of baseball having been played, it is time for an update. Monitoring velocity changes is very important for two reasons: 1) they sometimes hint at a hidden injury and 2) according to this research, every increase or decrease of one mile per hour for a starting pitcher’s average fastball velocity equates to a change of about 0.25 runs allowed per nine innings in that direction.

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Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 7.

Jon Garland – After getting roughed up in his first start of the season, Garland has hurled four straight Quality Starts. One thing especially interesting about Garland this year is his batted ball profile. Typically a ground ball pitcher, Garland set a career-high with a 51.9 GB% last year. After five games in 2011, he has a career-low 36.8 GB%. Yet his HR/9 of 1.13 is essentially his career average. He has a home start against the Brewers and then goes on the road for his first start in U.S. Cellular since leaving the White Sox after the 2007 season. The Brewers are less potent on the road (.609 OPS) than they are at home (.852 OPS) and the White Sox are a below-average offensive team this year, so see if Garland is available in your league to stream this week.

Matt Garza – The overall fantasy numbers (strikeouts excepted) are nothing special for Garza this year but he has been pitching much better than his record shows. His xFIP is two full runs lower than his ERA and his FIP is even better. In his last five games, Garza has four Quality Starts and a 2.90 ERA. The matchups are not overly favorable to Garza this week, with two road starts, including one in an AL park, but he has been pitching well so do not be afraid to put him in your lineup this week.

Ubaldo Jimenez – Fantasy leaguers still consider Jimenez a must-start after last year’s sterling performance. But the truth is that Jimenez has not been good so far in 2011. It looked like he might be finally turning the corner with his start against the Giants in the first week in May but then he failed to get out of the fourth inning last time out against the Mets. His K/9 is better than last season and his BABIP is virtually identical to 2010. But Jimenez has a 6.67 BB/9 and is being victimized by the long ball, with 4 HR in 29.2 IP. He needs a spot on your bench until he shows something more.

Rick Porcello – The beginning of 2011 looked ugly for Porcello, who allowed 10 ER in 10 IP, with 4 BB and 6 Ks. But since then he’s yet to allow more than 2 ER in a start and has a 3.0 K/BB ratio, with 21 Ks in 31.2 IP. His FIP and xFIP are both close to his actual ERA of 3.67. Porcello is throwing more changeups this year but otherwise appears the same pitcher he’s typically been. It’s just that the results are better. With one home start and an Interleague game in Pittsburgh, the matchups are decent enough for him this week, so get him in your lineup.

Edinson Volquez – First off, if you have not already read it, immediately check out Cistulli’s piece on Volquez, which helps explain why a guy with great stuff is getting horrible results. Unfortunately, while there may be some reason for optimism for Volquez, it’s hard to get excited about a guy with a walk rate that high. Combine it with an elevated HR rate and it adds up to a guy who should be on your bench at this point in time.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 7 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

F. Hernandez, Lee, Hanson, Price, Johnson, J. Garcia, Cain, Shields, Marcum, Masterson, G. Gonzalez, Anderson, Burnett, Nolasco, J. Sanchez, D. Hudson, Kuroda, Britton, Lewis, W. Rodriguez, Jackson, Lowe, Baker, Myers, Bailey, Stauffer, Zimmermann, Wolf, Duensing, Drabek, Lackey, Pineiro, Oswalt, Nova, Harrison, Pelfrey, Richard, Matsuzaka, Morton, Niese, Vargas, Westbrook, Coke, Litsch, Chatwood, Maholm, Lannan, Carrasco, Tillman, Galarraga, O’Sullivan, Mazzaro, Coleman, Mortensen.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 5 pitchers and how they fared.

Dickey – Advised to start. 4 Ks, 6.23 ERA, 1.539 WHIP, 13 IP, 9 ER
Hernandez – Advised to start. 5 Ks, 7.94 ERA, 2.118 WHIP, 11.1 IP, 10 ER
Jurrjens – Advised to start. 2 W, 6 Ks, 1.93 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, 14 IP, 3 ER
Leake – Advised to start. 5 Ks, 17.18 ERA, 2.182 WHIP, 3.2 IP, 7 ER
Tomlin – Advised to sit. 5 Ks, 2.35 ERA, 0.391 WHIP, 7.2 IP, 2 ER

Leading up to the 2011 season, the Philadelphia Phillies’ Phantastic Four of Halladay, Hamels, Lee and Oswalt dominated any discussion about the NL East. Philly’s rotation has proven worth the hype, leading the majors in starting xFIP (2.69) by over half a run per nine frames. But the Atlanta Braves’ starters have been among the best in the majors, too, putting together a collective 3.35 xFIP that places second in the NL. While Philly’s rotation is fueled by guys making eight figure salaries, one of the key contributors for Atlanta is a rookie righty who didn’t hear his name called on draft day in 2008.

Within the course of a few years, Brandon Beachy has evolved from a part-time pitcher at Indiana Wesleyan who couldn’t buy a Kia with the free agent signing bonus that the Braves gave him ($20,000) to a starter who ranks among the likes of teammate Tommy Hanson and Clayton Kershaw in xFIP.

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Today’s Waiver Wire focuses on two ground ball pitchers who are enjoying good starts to their seasons, even though no one seems to be noticing.

Joel Pineiro: 11% owned

After five seasons (2004-2008) of being nearly unownable in anything other than deep AL or NL only leagues, Joel Pineiro has seen his career, both in real life and fantasy, rejuvenated by the addition of a sinker.  He was taught the pitch by St. Louis pitching coach Dave Duncan while with the Cardinals in 2008. The next season he saw ground ball percentage jump 60.5%, more than 12 points higher than the season before. Pineiro also saw his ERA, FIP, and xFIP get below 4.00, the first time any of them had been that low since 2003. He took his new found success to Anaheim where he only pitched 152 innings, but won 10 games and had a very respectable triple slash line (ERA, FIP, xFIP) of 3.84/3.84/3.73.

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With Dallas Braden scheduled to undergo shoulder surgery next Monday and expected to miss the rest of the season, Tyson Ross‘ spot in the Oakland Athletics’ rotation just became a little more secure. With a 2.51 ERA on the season, his ownership percentage in CBS leagues has climbed from 3% to 12% since week 4. Let’s see if he is truly worth an add.

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In today’s ultra-focused edition of NL Starting Pitchers, we take a look at Joe Blanton of the Philadelphia Phillies.

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As the 2011 season got under way, Tampa Bay locked up Wade Davis with long-term deal that could potentially keep him in a Rays uniform through 2017 while putting a total of over $36 million in the right-hander’s pockets. So far, Davis has rewarded Tampa’s aggressive move to cost-control his arbitration years and potentially buy out a pair of free agent seasons. In 44 innings pitched, Davis sports a 3.07 ERA that places among the top 20 in the American League.

Davis was, health permitting, supposed to become a prominent piece of Tampa’s starting rotation. On the strength of what Baseball America called “a heavy 93-94 mph fastball with above-average sink” and a “plus” curveball, Davis punched out 8.3 batters per nine frames at the Triple-A level. BA ranked him between number 17 and 34 on its Top 100 prospects list from 2008-2010. Given his stature amongst scouts, Davis’ hot start to the 2011 season makes him appear to be a talented starter converting potential into major league production.

The problem is the current version of Wade Davis pitches nothing like that glowing scouting report. He’s fooling just about no one, while also lacking the fine control and ground ball tendencies to compensate.

Among qualified starters, Davis’ 5.1 swinging strike percentage places ahead of only Brad Penny, Ivan Nova, Kyle McClellan and Dustin Moseley. For reference, the big league average is around 8.5% While Davis’ 6.7% swinging strike rate from 2009-2010 was rather disappointing for a guy touted as a power pitcher, that looks robust compared to this year’s clip. Davis has struck out 10.6% of batters faced this year, down from 17.1% from ’09 to ’10. That explains why his K/9 mark is just 4.09. He K’d around 6.6 per nine from ’09 to 10 (7-7.1 MLB average in recent years).

Davis’ average fastball velocity is down from 92.3 MPH last season to 90 in 2011. While over 40% of Davis’ pitches classified by Pitch F/X as four-seamers were thrown at 93 MPH or higher in 2010, about four percent have reached that velocity this year. Davis suggested to Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times that the lack of mid-to-upper 90s gas is at least partially intentional:

Part by design, part by the way he typically builds arm strength into a season, Davis is throwing with less velocity and getting more outs.

“Every year I come in after spring training and I’ve always been a little down, and toward the second half I always pick it up,” Davis said. “And this year’s a little different just because I’m trying to pitch a little more instead of just relying on stuff. My command’s a lot better of the strike zone, I can attack hitters a lot easier being more relaxed.”

Unfortunately for Davis, it’s hard to find much evidence the “pitcher, not a thrower” mantra will pay long-term dividends. He’s certainly getting fewer K’s, with his fastball’s whiff rate down slightly compared to last year and his breaking stuff getting even fewer whiffs (just 2.6% for his curve and 7.2% with his slider; those rates were 5 and 13 percent, respectively, last year, and the MLB averages are 11.6% for the curve and 13.6% for the slider). But his declining punch out rate has come without better control or an uptick in ground ball rate.

His first-pitch strike percentage, which was 58.9 percent from 2009-2010, is a shade under 53% in 2011 (58-59% MLB average). Opposing batters are drawing a walk in 10% of their plate appearances against Davis, compared to 8.6% from ’09-’10. Consequently, he’s issuing about 3.9 walks per nine innings this season after allowing 3.3 free passes per nine in ’09 and ’10 (3.3 MLB average).

Davis was already a flyball-slanted pitcher coming into this year, posting a 39.2 GB% from ’09 to ’10, but he’s getting even fewer worm burners in 2011 (36.3%). So far, all those pitches lifted skyward haven’t been an issue — he has surrendered just two homers. However, Davis has a 2.9% home run per fly ball rate that’s bound to increase. If he had given up homers on fly balls (which isn’t something a pitcher has much control over) at a rate close to the AL average, he’d have a HR/9 mark of 1.2-1.3 instead of his actual 0.41.

While Davis is flirting with a sub-three ERA, his peripherals suggest that he has actually been over 30 percent worse than the average MLB pitcher (134 xFIP-). Maybe you feel that Davis’ .260 BABIP won’t climb quite as much as usual due to Tampa’s skilled fielders, and maybe he won’t have severe home run problems pitching in the power-suppressing Trop. But even so, Davis just isn’t showing the requisite control and earth-scorching style to survive with such a low strikeout rate. Either he’s going to find a way to miss more lumber, or he’s going to get beat with the regression stick.

Today let’s take a look at 3 pitchers that expect to make a start sometime this week after returning from the DL. With all three pitchers, it may be advisable to sit them for their first game back in order to see where each one’s fastball stands and to make sure that they don’t immediately re-injure themselves.

All the percentages owned are from ESPN.

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Your Monday morning waiver wire features a shortstop and a starting pitcher, so let’s dive in…

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Here is the latest update to Week 6 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: Beckett, T. Hudson, Pelfrey, Blackburn and Sonnanstine.

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Price, Lester, Hanson and Liriano.

Of the new starters let’s look at Mike Pelfrey. The good news is that Pelfrey has pitched well in two of his last three starts. The bad news is that he still has a 6.06 ERA and both of his ERA estimators are over 4.50, higher than his last three seasons.

Pelfrey’s game plan has always been to pound the ball low in the strike zone. Last year he added a splitter to his arsenal, which already included a sinker. But this year he has gotten away from that style of pitching and the result is a career-high 40.9 FB%. In his last three starts, Pelfrey has 29 FB and 23 GB.

Last year when Pelfrey won 15 games, he really took advantage of his home park. He was 10-3 with a 2.83 ERA in Citi Field and 5-6 with a 4.95 ERA in road parks. This year sees a similar big split. Pelfrey is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA at Citi Field and 0-3 with a 10.91 ERA in road parks.

This week, Pelfrey has road starts in Colorado and Houston. While neither park is playing as a strong offensive park so far in 2011, both have been hitter-friendly in the past. Given Pelfrey’s tendency to struggle away from Citi Field, it should be an easy decision to leave him on the bench this week.

Last week’s Sunday look was Jorge de la Rosa and the advice was to start him despite the two road starts. Here was his combined line for his starts against the Diamondbacks and Giants:

12 IP, 11 H, 6 ER, 7 BB, 13 Ks, 0 W, 2 QS