In past pitcher articles, I have focused on strikeout and ground ball inducing skills and ignored control, though that has not been intentional. A couple of weeks ago, Carson Cistulli found that there was a strong inverse relationship between a pitcher’s F-Strike% and BB/9. This makes intuitive sense since once we already know the pitcher has an 0-1 count on the batter, it is that much less likely he ends up walking him. To that end, I decided to compare where a pitcher ranked in F-Strike% with his ranking in BB/9 to determine whose walk rates might be in for improvement. As a reminder, only “qualified” pitchers were included. And for reference, the league average F-Strike% has been 58.9%, while the league average BB/9 has been 3.30.

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I’m going to try something new here, so bear with me. Have you ever looked at two players who were having very similar seasons, but had vastly difference ownership percentages? I’m not talking about after one week when small sample sizes rule the day and someone like Chris Shelton is putting up numbers similar to Albert Pujols. We all knew Shelton was a bum and Pujols a star. 

I mean players more evenly matched in the skill set department. Two such pitchers, Josh Tomlin and Phil Humber, caught my eye this week.

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Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 8.

Bronson Arroyo – After a solid April, Arroyo has hit the skids here in May. He has a 4.61 ERA despite a .247 BABIP. Arroyo has managed that feat by allowing 6 HR in 27.1 IP. This week he goes on the road to Atlanta and Philadelphia. The Braves are tied for second in the National League with 47 HR and while the Phillies are not the power-hitting club they’ve been in the past, Citizens Bank Park is still a homer-friendly venue. Put Arroyo on the bench this week.

Jhoulys Chacin – Fantasy players are not completely on the Chacin bandwagon and it’s hard to understand why. He’s hurled a Quality Start in seven of his nine games this season, including the last five. He’s fourth in the league in GB% and has a strong 7.80 K/9. And if that’s not enough, he checks in with a fine 1.12 WHIP. Chacin has two home starts this week and he has a 1.80 ERA after five games in Coors Field this year. Make sure he’s in your lineup.

Jorge de la Rosa – Much like his teammate listed above, de la Rosa is having a strong season yet is not considered a must-start by the fantasy crowd. Previously, walks have been a big problem but this year de la Rosa has a solid 3.18 BB/9. Last year he was victimized by the gopher ball, but in 2011 de la Rosa has kept the ball in the park and has allowed 4 HR in 56.2 IP. With two home starts this week, where he is 3-0 with a 3.50 ERA, feel confident in putting him in your lineup.

Jeremy Hellickson – In his last five starts, Hellickson is 4-0 with a 2.45 ERA and a 1.121 WHIP. He’s not striking out batters at last year’s high rate, but his 6.35 K/9 is more than acceptable when it comes along with those other numbers. It should be noted that he is outperforming his peripherals, especially his xFIP which checks in at 4.26, over a full run higher than his 3.18 ERA. Still, I like Hellickson’s chances to continue his strong pitching this week.

Jonathon Niese – A poor start to the season leaves Niese available in two-thirds of CBS Sports leagues. But in his last six starts he his 3-2 with a 3.29 ERA. Overall, Niese is using his curve ball more in 2011 and the results have been better with both his hook and fastball according to Pitch Type Values. Niese gets a bunch of ground balls (49.4%) and this year he is getting a large number of infield pop-ups (13.2%). It’s not the greatest matchups for Niese this week, with a road start in Chicago and a home game against the Phillies. Still, with his strong pitching lately, he makes a solid streaming option this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 8 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Haren, Verlander, Weaver, Kershaw, Beckett, Hamels, Nolasco, Jurrjens, Gallardo, Cain, Britton, Romero, Buchholz, Cueto, Ogando, Masterson, Lohse, Dempster, Norris, Colon, Danks, McCarthy, Ross, Vargas, Pavano, Gorzelanny, Litsch, Blanton, Duffy, Moseley, Coke, Saunders.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 6 pitchers and how they fared.

Jackson – Advised to sit. W, 5 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.857 WHIP, 7 IP. 0 ER
Latos – Advised to sit. W, 9 Ks, 3.97 ERA, 1.412 WHIP, 11.1 IP, 5 ER
Lilly – Advised to start. W, 9 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 12 IP, 6 ER
Liriano – Advised to sit. 1 K, 12.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 3 IP, 4 ER
Morrow – Advised to start. W, 14 Ks, 8.64 ERA, 1.560 WHIP, 8.1 IP, 8 ER

Jake Arrieta was drafted in the 5th round of the 2007 draft and moved up through the minors relatively quickly, making his Orioles debut in 2010. With sub-3.00 ERAs at three of his four stops down on the farm, he made his way up the pitching prospect rankings. After getting a mid-season call last year, Arrieta is making it through his first full season at the Major League level. It is likely that Arrieta is owned in every deep mixed and AL-Only league, but the question becomes whether we may be witnessing a breakout season that would enable him to generate value in shallower mixed leagues.

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In today’s look at NL Starting Pitchers, we focus on two youngsters in the NL West, including one starter who’s having problems in the minors.

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Sometimes you just get bitter. Like when your FanGraphs ottoneu Experts League team has just been staring at fifth place for a month and a half in a keeper league and there’s absolutely no way to know which way to go. Sell or buy? Well, let me have a healthy week or two and I’ll decide, eh?

The David Wright injury will hurt me, but it’s a situation in my outfield that has me most upset. Nelson Cruz went down – that was obviously a risk going in, given his history. Then Angel Pagan went down, and really that’s a ditto. And Grady Sizemore? That’s on me too I guess. Travis Snider was a backup plan, though, and that went out the window with all the strikeouts. Hey maybe I deserved it?

That doesn’t help me be any less bitter. So I head over to the new leaders team, the one belonging to Tim Heaney and the crew from KFFL. I should be able to find some sell-high guys there, right?

Uh, not so much. Alex Avila, Mark Teixeira, Brandon Phillips, Starlin Castro, Aaron Hill, Evan Longoria, Juan Pierre, Ian Desmond… looks fine here. On the staff? Dan Haren, Tommy Hanson and Jhoulys Chacin are all pre-season favorites and are strong bets to continue their fine performances. Huston Street, and Jordan Walden are his only official closers, but Kenley Jansen and Daniel Bard make for fine future closers. This is a nice team.

That isn’t to say that there aren’t a couple players on the team perhaps performing beyond their capabilities. Drew Stubbs is striking out 27.5% of the time and has a .349 BABIP supporting his .281 batting average right now. Once that BABIP returns to earth – and we’re talking .325ish territory, since he does have good speed – he won’t have a real-nice looking batting average. He’ll still have power and speed, though, as his .181 ISO is right in line with career norms and he stole 46 bases at his last stop in Triple A (in 472 PAs). So, yeah, still a good player.

Same theme with Curtis Granderson. Sure, he won’t slug .643 all year and his .364 ISO will return to earth some. But he’s also hitting the ball in the air more and squarely in his power prime at 30 years old. Even with a little power regression, KFFL should be able to bank at least 35 home runs from their $14 player. Not so bad. Once money is considered, does it even matter if the $1 Brennan Boesch is a platoon player with an inflated BABIP? He’s playing well enough to fill in for the suddenly resurgent Adam Lind. Can you sense the bitterness?

Dudes even got Alexi Ogando for $2 so that takes the sails right out from any mention of his .193 BABIP or continued platoon split (4.85 FIP against lefties). Well, at least they spent $18 on Delmon Young, amiright. Even some BABIP love won’t help if he continues to pound that rock into the ground 50% of the time. Gotta get em up to get em out.

What really gets me, though, is this graph from the new ‘Reports’ tab in ottoneu. Check my team going in the wrong direction, and KFFL going through the roof. It’s enough to eat your hat.

Last year, the Texas Rangers shifted lefty C.J. Wilson from the bullpen to the starting rotation. The results were superb: Wilson racked up 4.4 Wins Above Replacement, playing a prominent role for the 2010 AL West Division title winner and Junior Circuit representative in the World Series.

This past spring, the Rangers made another ‘pen arm a starter. No, not Neftali Feliz. Texas didn’t change its closer’s role, but rather decided to see how Alexi Ogando’s power fastball/slider combo played while facing lineups multiple times. Through seven starts, Ogando’s results look spectacular. He’s got a 2.06 ERA in 43.2 innings pitched, making the Rangers’ brass look like geniuses.

Ogando has enjoyed more breaks and friendly bounces than perhaps any other pitcher in the game this season, and he still must answer questions about how he’ll handle a starter’s workload and combat opposite-handed hitters. That said, his underlying performance is strong enough to suggest that Texas could have another successful bullpen convert on its hands.

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When Dan Haren was traded to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, many referenced the handy research from the Hardball Times which presented us with some data on the statistical effect of switching leagues if you’re a pitcher. In general, the move from the NL to the AL for a pitcher was expected to have a slight negative effect almost across the board including a deleterious effect on strikeouts, ERA, walks, and HR rate. What happened after the trade as you surely recall, was that his ERA dipped to 2.87 and his HR rate dropped almost by half, but his strikeouts fell pretty dramatically. This year, Haren is apparently out to prove he deserves “Mr. Outlier” as a nickname as he’s bucking the evidence that switching from the NL to the AL is universally a bad thing.

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A good story and a good leadoff hitter (for a bad offense)…

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Here is the latest update to Week 7 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: Lincecum, Scherzer, Pineda, Zambrano, Tomlin, Liriano, Davies.

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Cain, Masterson, Duensing, Vargas, Coke, O’Sullivan and Coleman.

The new starters include guys you are either definitely going to start or guys that have already been covered recently. So, let’s take a look at Kyle Davies, who is owned in two percent of CBS Sports leagues.

As if that was not enough of an indication of what type of pitcher Davies is, Craig Brown at Royals Authority recently wrote an article in which he concluded: “Davies is the worst starting pitcher in the history of the game.”

With that as our backdrop, let’s point out something that Davies has done well this year. His strikeouts are slightly up and his walks are down a considerable amount, leading to a career-high 2.07 K/BB ratio. Davies always had good minor league strikeout numbers (620 Ks in 642 IP) but had trouble in the majors because his fastball has little life, despite its velocity.

Without overwhelming stuff, Davies is more hittable than an average major league starter. He has a lifetime .316 BABIP and this year that mark sits at .364 after 40.2 IP. He also has a below-average 63.1 LOB%. Those two reasons go a long way in explaining a 4.55 xFIP, which is below average for a SP in 2011, but hardly what we would expect from a contender for the worst pitcher ever.

Another interesting thing to consider is that Davies has a significant home/road split so far in 2011. He has a 4.58 ERA and a 2.40 K/BB ratio at home this year compared to a 9.00 ERA and a 1.89 K/BB ratio on the road.

This week Davies has home starts against Cleveland and St. Louis. He’s squared off twice against the Indians already this season, hurling a Quality Start when he faced them in Kansas City (6 IP, 2 ER 0 BB, 7 K) and then getting bombed (3.1 IP, 8 ER, 4 HR) when the venue was Progressive Field. The Indians are not the same team that batted around Davies the last time they saw him. In 13 games since their four-HR game versus the KC hurler, the Tribe is averaging four runs per game, down nearly a run from their overall season mark.

However, the Cardinals lead the National League with a 5.25 runs-per-game average.

By no means is this a recommendation to pick up Davies for his two starts this week. But hurlers with two home starts are always interesting and Davies has stronger peripherals than his overall ERA would indicate. Keep an eye on him this week and possibly keep him in mind as a potential streaming option in the future if he holds his own in Week 7.

Last week’s Sunday look was at Mike Pelfrey, who ended up pitching just once this past week and put up the following fantasy line:

W, 2 Ks, 4.05 ERA, 1.050 WHIP, QS