Ever since he became a full-time member of Red Sox the starting rotation in 2002, Derek Lowe has been one of the best in the game at eating innings and simply inducing ground balls. Lowe has made at least 32 starts every year since 2002, and has contributed at least 2.5 WAR each year.

During his early run as a starter, Lowe’s GB% bordered on the obscene. Prior to signing with the Braves in 2009, Lowe’s ground-ball rate never dipped below 60%, and it rose to 65% on four occasions. Frankly, if we compare Lowe’s current rates to what he did in the past, his recent performance has been unspectacular. How often can we say that about a pitcher who’s still getting grounders over 58% of the time?

From a fantasy angle, Lowe has always been a bit under appreciated. Since leaving the Red Sox, Lowe has never won a ton of games, and his ERA and WHIP were rarely elite enough to make up for pedestrian strikeout totals. However, the complete package that is Derek Lowe has usually been worthy of a roster spot as long as the rest of your rotation could provide the strikeouts, at least until the advanced aging started in Atlanta.

Not convinced that Lowe could still be worth a pickup at 38 years of age? I understand your concern, but I would like to present you with one more piece of evidence: Lowe’s pitch f/x heat maps. Below are images showing Lowe’s sinker and slider locations this year, and you can click on them if you wish to enlarge them for your viewing convenience.

As you can see, Lowe refuses to throw his fastball in the upper third of the strike zone, instead knowing how his bread is buttered and pounding the bottom of the zone. Also, as you can see, he is going to completely stay away from lefties, hopefully forcing them to reach out and pound a ball into the ground. If you look at his graphs from the past few seasons, they will look very similar to what Lowe is doing in 2011.

Lowe knows his strengths, and his uses them to his advantage, even if he’s getting older and losing some effectiveness. He should be able to stave off some aging just thanks to his pitch selection and control, and is certainly worth having around in NL-only leagues.

For a 26-year-old with an even 300 innings pitched in the majors, Andrew Miller has worn many labels throughout his career. He was a college ace at North Carolina and a top-10 pick by the Tigers in the 2006 draft. He was a primo prospect acquired by the Marlins in the December 2007 Miguel Cabrera deal. And he was a bitter disappointment traded to Boston last offseason for nothing more than recently-DFA’d reliever Dustin Richardson.

Last night, Miller took the mound at Fenway Park wearing yet another label: reclamation project. With Clay Buchholz on the DL with a back injury, the 6-foot-7, herky-jerky lefty got a fill-in start versus the San Diego Padres. He didn’t disappoint. Miller’s control wasn’t great, but he showed better stuff at the major league level than he had in years.

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Here is the latest update to Week 12 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: LeBlanc, A. Miller

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Beckett, Godfrey

Dillon Gee – How much money do you think you could have made in Vegas at the beginning of the year by placing a wager for Gee to make the All-Star team? He couldn’t even make the starting rotation for the Mets, who spent the offseason signing every injury reclamation pitcher they could. But Gee is 7-0 and in his last six starts, he’s 5-0 with a 1.82 ERA with a 3.0 K/BB ratio. And the only reason he’s not 6-0 is because he had to leave his last start after four innings (no runs, one hit) due to a rain delay.

Gee’s stuff is frequently described as underwhelming yet he has a double-digit SwStr%, which would be a top-20 mark in the majors if he had enough innings to qualify. He’s added over two full strikeouts per nine to his mark from last year, he keeps his walks to an acceptable rate (3.0 BB/9) and doesn’t give up many home runs (0.55 HR/9).

His matchups this week are mixed, with a home start against the A’s and a road start in Texas. But at this point, Gee should be owned in every league and starting in all but the shallowest of mixed leagues. Get him into your lineup.

Derek Holland – In his last five games, Holland has pitched 31 innings and allowed eight home runs. Not surprisingly, he has a 5.52 ERA in this span. But he also has 27 Ks and a 2-1 record, which basically sums up Holland – he’s going to get you strikeouts and there’s a good chance he can get you wins, too. This week he has home starts against the Astros and the Mets. He has a 6.68 ERA at home this year and a 1.742 WHIP.

It seems like these would be good matchups for Holland, as Houston and New York are both near the bottom of the NL in HR. But Holland has been knocked around at home despite allowing just 3 HR in 31 IP. So he has just been hit unlucky. But the Mets and Astros are both above average in the NL in hits and New York is also above average in walks.

In making the decision with Holland it feels a little like going around in circles and that you can come up with a justification for whichever side for which you are predisposed. But ultimately if you have the depth, I would think this would be a good week to leave Holland on the bench.

Chris Narveson – Like Holland, Narveson is another SP option who may not be top tier, but who is worthwhile because he has a nice K-rate (8.04 K/9). But he is maddeningly inconsistent. In his last seven starts, Narveson has three where he’s given up 0 or 1 ER and four where he’s allowed four or more ER. One thing where Narveson has been a little more dependable is his home/road split. His ERA at home (3.86) is a full run lower than his road number (4.93). And while we usually think of Miller Park as a HR-friendly venue, Narveson has only allowed 2 HR in 32.2 IP at home compared to 5 in 45.2 IP on the road. This week Narveson has two home starts against AL clubs who will have to forfeit their DH. Make sure he is in your lineup this week to enjoy the Ks and hopefully pick up a win or two.

Carl Pavano – A rough start still has Pavano’s overall numbers looking pedestrian but he has a 2.24 ERA and a 1.228 WHIP in his last seven starts, with Quality Starts in his last three outings. But the Twins have not given Pavano much run support this year (3.40 per nine) and the veteran has displayed a big home/road split. At Target Field, Pavano is 3-1 with a 2.64 ERA. But on the road he is 1-4 with a 5.58 ERA. This week he has road starts in San Francisco and Milwaukee. So while he has been pitching better recently, give him the week off if you can.

Carlos Zambrano – Those who believe in karma can look at Zambrano and nod with approval. After having the bullpen blow a win in his first start in June, Zambrano ripped his teammates. And while he apologized, the gods were not appeased, as in his two starts since the outburst, Zambrano has allowed 12 ER in 12.1 IP. So, will his penance be over after two starts or is he in for more payback?

This year, Zambrano has a 5.22 ERA on the road and has allowed 25 BB in 50 IP. It’s tough to win with that walk rate and Zambrano compounds the issue by permitting 6 HR away from Wrigley this year. This week he has two road starts in AL parks, meaning he faces an additional hitter. Keep Zambrano on the bench this week and hope that this will be the end of the repercussions for his remarks.

Welcome to the abbreviated version of Week 12 two-start pitchers. Remember, these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Halladay, Weaver, Beckett, Kershaw, A. Sanchez, Romero, Floyd, T. Hudson, Cueto, Latos, Gee, Bumgarner, Zambrano, Arrieta, Morton, Holland, Pavano, McClellan, Narveson, Carmona, Fister, Nova, Happ, Penny, Nicasio, Hochevar, L. Hernandez, Saunders, Niemann, Outman, Godfrey.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers, which will include the normal five recommendations.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 10 pitchers and how they fared.

Drabek – Advised to sit. W, 5 Ks, 12.54 ERA, 2.464 WHIP, 9.1 IP, 13 ER
Jimenez – Advised to start. 10 Ks, 2.92 ERA, 1.460 WHIP, 12.1 IP, 4 ER
Paulino – Advised to start. 9 Ks, 2.31 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 11.2 IP, 3 ER
Pineiro – Advised to start. K. 6.75 ERA, 1.875 WHIP, 5.1 IP, 4 ER
Tomlin – Advised to sit. 5 Ks, 9.82 ERA, 2.000 WHIP, 11 IP, 12 ER

The 2011 season has been a high-priced train wreck for the Chicago Cubs. Despite having the sixth-highest opening day payroll among major league clubs, the North Siders own the second-worst record in the game at 27-40. The Cubs are highly unlikely to join the 2008 Seattle Mariners as baseball’s second team to rack up 100 losses with a payroll exceeding $100 million — that would require them to win at a .368 clip or less from here on out — but it figures to be a somber summer in Wrigleyville.

At first blush, Ryan Dempster looks like yet another well-paid underachiever. The 34-year-old righty, pulling down nearly $14 million, has a 5.48 ERA in 15 starts this season. Dempster is on less than half of ESPN players’ fantasy rosters (46 percent), and about two-thirds of Yahoo rosters (67 percent).

Is the starter-turned-reliever-turned-starter finished? Not hardly. The current version of Dempster might not be quite as dominant as the guy who averaged over four Wins Above Replacement per season from 2008-2010, but he’s still well worth owning in all leagues.

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This is part of an ongoing pro/con series on RotoGraphs over the next couple of weeks. Today we’ll look at the positive/negative side of Ryan Dempster. Expect the opposite side shortly.

It would be easy to look at Ryan Dempster’s 5.48 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, his solid work the previous three seasons, and conclude that one should be bullish on his prospects moving forward. After all, his BABIP is an inflated .320, his HR/FB ratio is a career high 15.5% and his LOB% is well below the league average. But that would be too easy and I like challenges.

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Here is the latest update to Week 11 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: Cahill, Jakubauskas

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Britton, Outman.

Let’s take a look at Trevor Cahill. Last year Cahill was an 18-game winner thanks in large part to having a .236 BABIP, the lowest mark among qualified starters. Cahill’s xFIP (3.99) was a full run higher than his ERA (2.97) and his FIP (4.19) was even higher. With an unimpressive strikeout rate of 5.40 K/9, many were calling for Cahill to be one of 2011’s biggest disappointments.

But after a start to 2011 that rivaled what he did last season, Cahill has hit hard times. He started the year 6-0 with a 1.72 ERA. Since then he’s 0-4 with a 5.35 ERA. His control has left him, as he’s allowed 18 BB in 35.1 IP in that span. Also he’s run into trouble with the gopher ball, having permitted 6 HR in that stretch. And even his hit rate has taken it on the chin, as he has a .324 BABIP.

Overall, Cahill’s xFIP is better this year (3.49) than it was in 2010 (3.99). But you won’t find any fantasy owner as enthusiastic about Cahill as his owners were in 2010. The good news for Cahill this week is that he has two home starts. While he has a 4.18 ERA in eight road starts, Cahill sports a 2.01 mark in six games at McAfee Coliseum.

But even at home, he’s allowed 14 hits in his last 13.2 IP. Cahill is scuffling all the way around right now.

Last week we looked at Tyler Chatwood. His two starts this week ended with 10.2 IP, 9 ER, 10 Ks and a 1.688 WHIP.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 11.

Bronson Arroyo – A 17-game winner a year ago, Arroyo has struggled through most of 2011. Nowhere has he struggled more than with the gopher ball, as Arroyo has allowed 16 HR in 75 IP. Eleven of those have come in his home park and this week the Reds host Jose Bautista and the Toronto Blue Jays. Arroyo has a road start in Dodger Stadium, where in six games lifetime he is 1-3 with a 4.85 ERA. Leave him on the bench this week if you have the depth.

Zach Britton – One of the top rookie pitchers, Britton has held his own pitching in the AL East. He’s been a little lucky with his BABIP (.260) and strand rate (75.7%) but has been a solid pitcher, with a 3.88 xFIP. However, Britton has a large L/R split, as the southpaw has held LHB to a .556 OPS this season. This week he has two road starts (4.94 road ERA so far this year) and he goes up against the Blue Jays, who lead the AL with an .880 OPS against LH starters and the Nationals, who are last in the NL with a .613 OPS against LH starters. Washington is missing Ryan Zimmerman versus lefties but Mike Morse is starting to hit and Jayson Werth has been better over his last three weeks (faint praise). Hold out Britton this week if you have other options.

Josh Collmenter – A 15th round draft pick in 2007, Collmenter is one of the top surprise stories of the year. He is 4-1 with a 1.12 ERA and fantasy owners have been snapping him off the waiver wire the past four weeks. Collmenter basically throws just two pitches and one of them is an 86.7 mph fastball. He succeeds thanks to an unusual delivery and pinpoint control. At some point it seems logical that hitters will adjust to his delivery. But this week he has two home starts and goes up against an AL team and the Giants, against whom he has thrown only two innings. Ride Collmenter in your lineup for another week.

Justin Masterson – It looked like Masterson turned the corner at the beginning of the season, as he began with a 5-0 record with a 2.11 ERA. But in his last six outings, he’s 0-4 with a 4.43 ERA, despite allowing just 2 HR in 40.2 IP. Masterson has done a fine job limiting HR this year and has improved his walks, going from a 3.65 BB/9 in 2010 to a 2.77 mark this year. But he still struggles against LHB (.794 OPS) and his 6.26 K/9 is a career low. The matchups seem okay on the surface, but both the Pirates and Tigers are better than they were a year ago. Sit Masterson if you can.

Carl Pavano – After posting a 6.64 ERA in his first seven games, Pavano has bounced back nicely in his last six outings. He’s posted a 2.49 ERA in that span and has allowed just 2 HR in 43.1 IP. Pavano has two home starts this week and at Target Field he has a 3.06 ERA, a full 2.5 runs lower than his road mark. Additionally, Pavano has allowed just 1 HR at home this year, compared to six in road parks. Make sure Pavano is in your linep this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 11 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Verlander, Gallardo, Sabathia, Hamels, Jurrjens, Cain, J. Garcia, Shields, Ogando, Haren, Nolasco, Burnett, Floyd, Kuroda, Lowe, Norris, Dempster, Wolf, Niese, Vargas, W. Rodriguez, Villanueva, Carrasco, Pelfrey, Duffy, Maholm, Moseley, Wells, Duke, Karstens, Wakefield, Coke, Cobb, Volstad, Outman, Cook, Maya

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 7 pitchers and how they fared.

Bedard – Advised to start. 14 Ks, 3.38 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 13.1 IP, 5 ER
Bumgarner – Advised to sit. W, 11 Ks, 1.929 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, 14 IP, 3 ER
Carmona – Advised to sit. 5 Ks, 9.58 ERA, 1.839 WHIP, 10.1 IP, 11 ER
Morton – Advised to sit. W, 9 Ks, 2.08 ERA, 1.462 WHIP, 13 IP, 3 ER
Santana – Advised to start. 8 Ks, 6.23 ERA, 1.615 ERA, 13 IP, 9 ER

Cole Hamels carved up the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday night. The lefty punched out nine batters and walked none in eight shutout innings, lowering his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) to 2.31 in the process. Even considering the lower run-scoring environment in baseball right now, Hamels is in the midst of his best season in the majors. His FIP is 38 percent better than the league average in 2011 (68 FIP-), which ranks second only to teammate Roy Halladay among qualified starting pitchers.

The already-elite Hamels has raised his game to a new level this year by keeping the ball on the ground more often. That, in turn, has significantly cut his home run rate and limited other types of extra base-hits for the opposition.

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Wow, more than two months into the season and pitchers are clearly giving the finger to those who labeled 2010 the Year of the Pitcher. “You thought last year was the Year of the Pitcher? Wait until you see what we have in store for 2011!” It only makes fantasy owners whose teams have posted poor ERAs that much more annoyed. Anyway, on to the updates.

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