Madison Bumgarner | Giants
Despite some poor looking fantasy numbers, Bumgarner has been damn good lately in both fantasy and reality. His roto numbers over the past thirty days are skewed by his disastrous outing against the Twins in which he faced ten batters and gave up nine hits (his one out was via the strikeout). But even in that outing, Bumgarner threw twenty-two of his twenty-five pitches for strikes and refused to yield a homer. Bumgarner also had a poor fantasy outing against the Padres before the All-Star break, but once again, he did not allow a dinger.

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Another week and another innovation at ottoneu headquarters. Now you can browse any ottoneu league you like, right here. A few recommendations include the FanGraphs Staff League, the original ottoneu league, Justin Merry’s league (for you linear weights players, since he’s the scoring system creator and all), and, yes, the Expert’s League. Use the feature to learn a little more about what you should do in your league.

For example. A little ride over to the commissioner’s team page in the Expert’s League can show you what our group of prognosticators decided Brian McCann was worth ($33). Or how many minor leaguers a seasoned ottoneu player owns (zero in this case). Lastly, since Commissioner Chad Young has his Amateur Hour team in seventh place, it can show you what another ottoneu team trying to decide whether to buy or sell looks like.

It’s an interesting team, you might find when you’re looking at his set lineups page. He’s got J.P. Arencibia and Brian McCann, two very good young catchers, both playing right now. And yet he only has 13 games left to play at the position. Is McCann going to be worth $35 next year? Will someone want Arencibia? This is a clear position of surplus for Young.

His team is not that old, though. Sure, he has Vladimir Guerrero ready to head to the bench for good, and of course no minor leaguers, but he also boasts Eric Hosmer, Hunter Pence, Domonic Brown and Mike Moustakas as position players. But the Vlad injury forces him to play Rajai Davis in the outfield. He could use an outfielder if he’s going to go for it this year.

His pitching is strong. Roy Halladay, Jered Weaver, Jeremy Hellickson, Shaun Marcum and Jair Jurrjens are the headliners, but Julio Teheran and Ryan Dempster make for a good bench. If he goes for it, a $10 Marcum might have great trade value without requiring him to sell his top pitching prospect. If he calls it quits on the year, a $43 Roy Halladay may not be keepable, as much of a machine as the Doc is.

The old adage is that “Nobody cares about your fantasy team.” The irony is that you can learn a lot from looking at other people’s fantasy teams. And before we get too up in arms about Chad’s team, we should go softly. He’s about to return from his honeymoon to discover that Guerrero broke his hand. As if returning from a honeymoon wasn’t difficult enough.

Oh, and the offer still stands! Fill an ottoneu league now, and the entire league is free. Contact ottoneu founder Niv Shah if that sounds interesting to you (on twitter or at help @ ottoneu.com).

Welcome back from the weekend. Here’s three young-ish starting pitchers that could help your team in the short-term…

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I am quite shocked by the lack of fanfare for Johnny Cueto’s performance thus far. This is officially the first article written about him all season on this site. With a 2.01 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over 89.2 innings, he has been fantastic, at least on the surface. Below the surface of course, things get interesting.

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Here is the latest update to Week 16 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: Wakefield, Bergesen, Enright.

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Baker, Duke.

Let’s take a look at Tim Wakefield. It’s hard for some fantasy owners to take Wakefield seriously given his advanced age and questionable role on the team, but the veteran knuckleball pitcher does deliver something that most fantasy players value – consistency.

Since 2005 here are Wakefield’s annual FIPs and we use this one because he does seem to have an ability to limit HRs:

4.75, 4.93, 4.67, 4.84, 4.58, 4.52 and a 4.73 this season.

Now those FIPs have not always delivered a consistent ERA, but when Wakefield was in the starting rotation he was an excellent bet to deliver double-digit Wins each season. This year Wakefield started out in the bullpen but he has been permanently in the rotation since May 22nd. Here’s how he’s fared since then:

5-2, 4.47 ERA, 4.64 FIP.

Wakefield simply gets the job done. The one troubling thing about Wakefield has been a decline in his already poor K-rate. For the previous five years, Wakefield posted K/9s in the 5.00 range. This year that number has dropped to 4.41, a noticeable change. Fans can be somewhat encouraged by Wakefield’s last start before the All-Star break, when he fanned seven batters over seven innings pitched in a win over the Blue Jays.

This week Wakefield has a start in Baltimore against Brad Bergesen, who has been ineffective this year as a starter and who is also trying to come back from being hit by a line drive. His second start this week is at home against the Mariners, the team last in the American League with a 3.21 rpg. Seattle also has the second-most strikeouts of any club in the AL.

The matchups seem favorable for Wakefield this week and as he is still unowned in most leagues, he is a potential streaming option for the period.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 16.

Scott Baker – After missing a start before the All-Star break with a sore elbow, Baker is in line for two starts this week at home against the Indians and Tigers the top two teams in the AL Central. But the Indians are 28-34 since starting off the season 20-8 while the Tigers have played .500 ball over their last 32 games, so neither team is hot. Baker has been outstanding at home this year, where he has a 4-1 record with a 1.97 ERA. While he’s allowed 9 HR in 65 road innings, Baker has permitted just 3 HR in 45.2 IP at home. He is a risky play due to the unknown status of his elbow, but if he is in the lineup you’ll want him in yours to take advantage of the home starts.

Mark Buehrle – A pitcher who traditionally outperforms his xFIP, 2011 is no different for Buehrle, as he has a 3.42 ERA compared to a 4.06 xFIP. After getting knocked around in four of his first five starts, Buehrle has been a reliable pitcher over his last 13 games. He has a 2.72 ERA in that span with 12 Quality Starts. Buehrle has two road starts this week and he has pitched better this year at home. But he goes up against the Royals and Indians. Kansas City is the worst team in the AL while the Indians rank 14th in OPS against LH starters. Look for Buehrle’s strong pitching to continue and keep him in your lineup.

Chris Capuano – This week Capuano has a home-and-home with the Marlins and Clay Hensley. Capuano has a 4.12 ERA this year but he’s been better than that most of the season. In his last 13 games he has a 3.59 ERA with 68 Ks in 77.1 IP. Capuano does not go deep into games but when he keeps the ball in the park he gives his team a chance to win. He’s allowed 13 HR this season and nine of those in his last 77.1 IP. However, the Marlins are 10th in the NL in HR, just under the league average. Neither Sun Life Stadium nor Citi Field is a big HR park so this appears to be a favorable week for Capuano.

Jason Hammel – Perhaps no pitcher in baseball is happier that Interleague play is over than Hammel. In four starts against the AL, Hammel allowed 17 ER in 23 IP for a 6.65 ERA. Against the NL, Hammel has a 3.59 ERA. He has favorable matchups this week with a home start against the inconsistent Derek Lowe and a road start against the very hittable Zach Duke. The Rockies are not as potent in road games as they are in Coors Field but Chase Field is also a good hitter’s park and Colorado is second in the NL with a .758 OPS versus lefty starters. Chances are he’s on the waiver wire in a mixed league and Hammel makes an excellent streaming option this week.

Jason Marquis – In his first 13 games, Marquis was 7-2 with a 3.67 ERA and a 47/23 SO/BB ratio. Since then he’s 0-2 with a 5.26 ERA with 11 BB and 13 Ks in 25.2 IP. His xFIP is still 70 points below his career average, so there’s still plenty of potential regression left for Marquis. He has two road starts this week and his ERA is 4.74 away from home, 1.48 higher than his mark at Nationals Park. If you picked him off the waiver wire, you likely got some good mileage out of Marquis already. But it’s time to quit while you’re ahead and put him on your bench this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 16 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Halladay, Lee, Jimenez, A. Sanchez, Liriano, Colon, Pineda, Billingsley, Hellickson, Ogando, Burnett, Vogelsong, Stauffer, Beachy, Lohse, Lowe, Wolf, Gee, Guthrie, Porcello, Collmenter, McDonald, Carmona, Cecil, Lyles, Chatwood, Willis, Duke, Hensley, Lopez, Davies

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 14 pitchers and how they fared.

Lewis – Advised to start. W, 13 Ks, 4.85 ERA, 1.231 WHIP, 13 IP, 7 ER
Marcum – Advised to sit. 9 Ks, 5.25 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 12 IP, 7 ER
Rodriguez – Advised to start. 9 Ks, 7.94 ERA, 1.765 WHIP, 11.1 IP, 10 ER
Stauffer – Advised to start. W, 2 Ks, 3.00 ERA, 1.417 WHIP, 12.0 IP, 4 ER
Zimmermann – Advised to start. W, 11 Ks, 2.92 ERA, 1.054 WHIP, 12.1 IP, 4 ER

Even though the league ERA is at its lowest mark since 1992, fantasy teams can never have enough pitching. And because everything is relative, half the teams are still going to be below average in the category. If you find yourself in that unfortunate situation, here are three potential second half surgers from the American League.

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With the All-Star break upon us, there isn’t really any news about NL starters to analyze, so here are a few notes to get you ready for the return of baseball that actually means something.

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I have to admit, these posts are a joy. In no other article could you possibly recommend a hitter slashing .243/.305/.360 AND a rookie pitcher who allowed six runs over four innings in his Major League Debut and avoid losing your entire readership. I could do no wrong!

Juan Rivera, LAD OF | 6%

Usual lefty-mashing Marcus Thames was released yesterday and the Dodgers subsequently replaced him with Rivera. Initially, it appears he will take over that same role, only facing left-handers. This makes sense of course as in his career, he has posted a .357 wOBA against southpaws, but just a .326 mark against righties. Even this season, despite his overall struggles, he has put up a .393 wOBA against lefties, albeit in a small 55 at-bat sample. Obviously, you don’t really want Rivera if he only faces left-handers. However, Tony Gwynn, Jr. is no one’s idea of a starting left-fielder, even given his excellent defense. At age 33, it is certainly in the realm of possibility that Rivera is done. But we cannot forget he hit 25 home runs just two years ago. If he hits well out of the gate, he could easily win more playing time and provide some deep league value.

Kyle Weiland, BOS SP | 4%

This may be the first recommendation that literally throws up zeroes for the rest of the season. That is, it is very possible he does not pitch another inning for the Sox this year. But, with Jon Lester’s status up in the air, and no other clear-cut options, Weiland may stick around for a little while. He posted a strong set of skills at Triple-A this season and has seen his skills improve as he climbed the minor league ladder, which is a great sign. He has induced an above average percentage of grounders and his fastball averaged 93.1 miles per hour during his first outing. Control may be an issue, as it has not been great during his minor league career and he threw just 40.9% of his first pitches for strikes during his debut. At least he has the powerful Sox offense backing him, so he could luck into some wins even if he does have some struggles, assuming he makes it through five of course.

After a ho-hum second stint in the Bronx last year and a disastrous beginning to his Marlins career, most fantasy owners stuck a fork in Javier Vazquez. After all, the soon-to-be 36-year-old was struggling to hit the upper 80s on the radar gun while ensuring that every person in attendance at Sun Life Stadium went home with a souvenir home run ball.

But there has since been a twist in Vazquez’s seeming destiny to finish his career by getting pummeled in front of droves of empty orange seats: he’s starting to pitch more like the workhorse who routinely posted impressive strikeout-to-walk ratios.

Take a look at Vazquez’s K/BB ratio and xFIP by month:

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