Fastball velocity is one of the most important numbers to focus on in a pitcher’s statistical toolbox. It has a high correlation with strikeout rate and when we saw an increase in velocity, good things should follow. Early on, we have heard about many starting pitchers suffering from a loss in fastball velocity, but some are actually enjoying a spike. I decided to only compare a starter’s velocity using the “Last 7 Days” filter so as to hopefully capture just the pitcher’s last start (or maybe two in some cases), since velocity does tend to increase throughout the season. These are the 10 pitchers with the largest increases so far:

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As usual, pitching performances in the early going have run the gamut from complete domination to shockingly bad. It’s poor starts like these that make me swear to never pay more than $10 for a pitcher. But alas, most starters have pitched just three games and still have another 180 innings of baseball left to throw. So with that said, here’s a look around the American League.

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While the disabled list is starting to fill up with in-game injuries and Tommy John surgeries, we’re finally reaching the point in the season when players are actually coming off the DL to fill in some of the gaps being left by newer injuries. Here are a pair of starters who started the season on the shelf, but either have already or will soon rejoin their respective teams. Read the rest of this entry »

Before the season started, fellow writer Chad Young examined a few starter eligible relievers. He had some great recommendations like Alexi Ogando and Alfredo Aceves. Today, I am going to examine a few more SP qualified relievers that Chad did not look at in his article.

(Owned rates are ESPN and Yahoo)

Brett Myers (91%, 53%) – Myers looks to be the Cadillac of relievers that are starter qualified because he is the only one currently picking up saves. On a starter’s off day, Myers can just be plugged into the starter’s roster spot thereby giving a team an extra slot picking up saves. While Myers is not playing for a team that will rack up a ton of wins for him to save, they are still saves. If he is able to close for the entire season, his number of saves should be around 30.

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It’s time for our first American League starting pitcher update! Let the small sample size analysis begin. I was bored at work today and decided to compare fastball velocity with last year already. Not surprisingly, there were a ton more pitchers with down velocity than up. I think this simply reminds us that pitchers are still building up arm strength and it should not automatically trigger alarm bells if your ace is not throwing as hard as last year. Of course, it’s something to monitor since it should gradually creep up through the rest of the month.

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Edinson Volquez

Part of me is still uncertain about whether Volquez is the type of pitcher who will see a big change pitching in PETCO, but if there’s one thing I’ve learned in my years playing and writing fantasy, it’s that Padre pitchers are usually worth giving the benefit of the doubt. Volquez pitched well in his first two starts this season, both at home, notably striking out 15 hitters between the two starts, but perhaps more importantly, he generated a fair amount of groundballs in both starts.

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In his Minor League career, Danny Duffy had a 10.5 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9, and generally blew the doors off the hinges when he was in the game. A short stint away from the game dinged him in some scouting reports, but when he returned, it was all systems go for the young lefty with mid-90s gas and multiple secondary pitches with bite and break.

Then Duffy spent 2011 putting up 105.1 innings of 7.43 K/9, 4.38 BB/9, 1.28 HR/9, and generally blew goats when he was in the game. Even a short offseason away from the game couldn’t undo that ding, and he came into the season mostly un-noticed in fantasy circles. He went into Tuesday night’s game against the Athletics owned in 3% of Yahoo leagues.

Should his six innings of eight-strikeout, four-walk, one-hit ball in a pitcher-friendly park against a pitcher-friendly lineup erase the memory of a half-season like Duffy had in 2011? Probably not. But unpacking why Duffy did well might help us decide if he is capable of doing so more often this season.

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Welcome back to a new season of deep league waiver wire gold. Come dive into the vast ocean of free agency with me and let’s see if we can spot some hidden treasure. I believe last year I used 10% as the ownership maximum in CBS leagues, but that sometimes hamstrung me into recommending really crappy players. So this year I am giving myself a bit more leeway and expanding that ceiling to 15%. We open our first edition with a pair of starting pitchers.

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In his first start as an Oakland Athletic, Tom Milone pitched eight shutout innings and allowed just six baserunners, which should prompt him to become a pretty big waiver wire pickup today. It was not all good for Milone however, as he struck out no batters and walked three along the way.

Many were beating the Milone drum this offseason, I certainly saw him as a sleeper candidate but I was not quite as bullish as some. His numbers at triple-A last season do give reason to believe he will strike out enough batters to be useful in that category, but that has not quite been the case in his six Major League starts to date — he maintains a 3.97 K/9 over those six starts.

Even though his strike out rates have been less than stellar, his impeccable control has allowed him to be rather successful, posting a 2.91 ERA and a 3.62 FIP in the bigs. It is still possible that his strikeout rate never climbs to a respectable rate, as his fastball sits at an average of 87.4 MPH for his career and averaged just 85.4 MPH last night. Even if he maintains a mark around 4.00 K/9 throughout the year, Milone could be in for a Mark Buehrle type year.

That type of production is certainly not top tier in any sense, but it does have a place on roto rosters. In deeper leagues and AL only, Milone becomes even more valuable.

One potential issue is that Milone does not record many ground balls. This could be just a small sample situation, but he netted just a 30.6% in his five starts last season and recorded just nine ground balls yesterday compared to 15 fly balls or line drives. It is an issue worth monitoring, as his low home run allowed rate would likely increase over a bigger sample if his ground ball rate remains so low. To help with that issue is that his home park is extremely pitcher friendly and his team’s outfield defense should be pretty solid.

I do not absolutely love Milone and I am not rushing to pick him up off the waiver wire in every league, but he is a player I think could add some value to rate stats. If you need pitching immediately, he is not a bad target. I would wait a bit longer and see if he can pump his strikeout rate up just a tad and see if he can maintain that low home run rate before I picked him up.

Here at Fangraphs, we have been writing quite a few articles on the fastball speeds (here and here and here and here). The main reason for the articles is that fastball speeds stabilize fairly quickly. They can be used to understand how a pitcher may perform in the future because fastball speed is directly related to both strikeout rates and runs allowed. With this knowledge, I am going to look at how a few pitchers, that saw their velocity drop in 2011, are doing in 2012.

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