Here is the latest update to Week 20 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: Halladay, Shields, Millwood, Hensley, Wang.

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Lee, Hanson, Vazquez, Davis, Detwiler.

Let’s take a look at Chien-Ming Wang. He’s pitched just 137 innings between 2008-2010 as he has battled foot and shoulder problems. Some feared that his career was over but Wang has indeed made it back to the majors and has three starts under his belt this year. He has a respectable 3.60 ERA, but he has allowed six unearned runs so far and 12 runs in 15 IP.

But before we give up on Wang, let’s look at his three outings start by start:

7/29 – 4 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 4 ER, 4 FB, 7 GB, 6 LD
8/3 – 5 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 2 ER, 5 FB, 14 GB, 3 LD
8/9 — 6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 4 FB, 11 GB, 1 LD

His 2.40 BB/9, 58.2 GB% and 7.7 HR/FB all match up quite well with his 2005-2008 heyday, when he won 19 games in the two years he made 30+ starts. He was always a pitcher who outperformed his xFIP and this year it’s even more dramatic due to his virtual complete lack of Ks (1.80 K/9).

However, Wang lives and dies not by his ability to strike batters out but by his penchant for getting batters to beat the ball in the ground. In his last two starts, he’s induced 25 GB and allowed 9 FB in 11 IP. Yes, these are very small sample sizes. But it is still very encouraging to see him doing what he did best when he was healthy.

With matchups against the Reds and Phillies this week, two of the bottom four teams in the NL in GB%, Wang may have his work cut out for him. But as a guy likely available on the waiver wire, he’s a much more interesting pick than either Kevin Millwood or Clay Hensley.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 20.

Chad Billingsley – Consistency has been hard to come by for Billingsley in 2011. Yes, he’s had some stretches where he’s run off multiple wins in a row, but those times were not backed with strong pitching. And here recently it’s been hot and cold for the Dodger righty. The one constant seemingly for Billingsley has been poor results on the road. In his last seven road starts, he’s given up 4, 4, 6, 0, 3, 5 and 3 ER over 45 IP for a 5.00 ERA. For the season he has a 5.53 road ERA, so it’s not like these last seven are out of character for him. Billingsley has a 6.59 K/9 in road games and allows more HR on the road. This week he squares off at MIL and at COL, two really good HR parks. Give him the week off if you can.

A.J. Burnett – It has been over six weeks since Burnett notched his last win and he has not been particularly impressive in defeat, either, with a 6.00 ERA in his last seven starts. One of the big problems in that stretch is that he has allowed 8 HR in 42 IP. The good news for Burnett this week is that he squares off against KC and MIN, two of the worst teams in the league in hitting HR. He’s also struggled with his command recently and the Twins have the fewest walks of any AL team. Both of these starts are on the road, which likely works in his favor as the Bronx faithful are not overly fond of Burnett at the moment. Put him in your lineup this week.

Gio Gonzalez – In his last four starts, Gonzalez is 0-4 with an 8.44 ERA. In that span, he has a 2.109 WHIP. Gonzalez’ BB/9 has definitely been a problem (6.3) but no one is going to succeed with the .433 BABIP that Gonzalez has during that stretch. So, is there an injury or is it a slump? Gonzalez also has a 9.7 K/9 in that stretch and his 10.0 SwStr% is right at his 9.7 percent mark for the season. It does not seem like an injury and there is no discussion of any health problems. He has two home starts this week and Gonzalez is 7-2 with a 2.21 ERA at the Coliseum. Also his home FIP is 1.07 beneath his road FIP. Keep Gonzalez active this week despite his recent horrible pitching.

Mike Leake – A 3.0 K/BB ratio and five Quality Starts in his last five games have not translated into a great record for Leake, who is 2-3 in that span. He has a nifty 2.53 ERA in his last 32 IP and a normal .316 BABIP. This week he squares off against the slumping Pirates (3-13 in their last 16 games) and Nationals (7-11). Leake is pitching well and he has favorable matchups, so make sure he is active this week.

Cory Luebke – A high pitch count kept Luebke to five innings in his last outing but that was hardly a surprise, as he notched 4 BB and 8 Ks. The walks were out of character but the strikeouts are what fantasy owners have come to expect from the converted reliever. Since moving into the rotation on June 26th, Luebke has a 9.3 K/9. His 2.98 ERA as a SP exactly matches his xFIP. Luebke is stretched out as a SP and has thrown between 100-110 pitches in each of his last seven outings. He has struggled somewhat at home (3.42 xFIP) but he faces two teams from the East Coast and there’s no reason not to have him in your lineup this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 20 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lee, Gallardo, Lester, T. Hudson, Ogando, Jimenez, Bumgarner, Hanson, Holland, A. Sanchez, Pineda, Harang, Liriano, Porcello, Wolf, J. Sanchez, Lilly, Dickey, Vazquez, Collmenter, McDonald, Westbrook, Davis, Blackburn, Alvarez, Moscoso, Hunter, Mills, Duffy, Chatwood, Paulino, G. Richards, Detwiler, Lopez, Sosa.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 18 pitchers and how they fared.

Danks – Advised to start. 5 Ks, 6.00 ERA, 1.667 WHIP, 6 IP, 4 ER
Lackey – Advised to sit. W, 10 Ks, 5.68 ERA, 1.263 WHIP, 12.2 IP, 8 ER
Peavy – Advised to sit. W, 10 Ks, 1.80 ERA, 0.800 WHIP, 15 IP, 3 ER
E. Santana – Advised to start. 2 W, 14 Ks, 1.04 ERA, 1.039 WHIP, 17.1 IP, 2 ER
Vazquez – Advised to start. 8 Ks, 1.39 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 13 IP, 2 ER

Roy Oswalt (Yahoo: 87 percent owned, ESPN: 96 percent owned)

Oswalt’s Sunday start wasn’t good, but neither was it a complete disaster. He allowed far too many baserunners against an offense that hasn’t always punished such generosity, which is why there’s a justifiably fair amount of weeping and gnashing of teeth over what was technically a quality start. Making any sort of grand judgment after one start is foolish — even more so when it’s his first start off the disabled list — but that doesn’t mean there’s nothing to learn from Oswalt’s effort against the Giants.

Matt Swartz noted during Oswalt’s start that the righty’s velocity looked low, which was part of the reason the Giants had little trouble squaring him up. Oswalt’s average fastball velocity this season is 91.2 mph, a full tick slower than it was last year, which is somewhat worrisome on its own. If he drops even further form there, he could be in real trouble. While he doesn’t live or die by high velocity, Oswalt isn’t going to thrive with a fastball that tops out at the same speed he averaged last year.

His drop in speed could well be directly related to his time on the disabled list, so it bears watching in his next few outings as he resumes his normal turns through the rotation. Assuming the Phillies stick to their current rotation, Oswalt should make back-to-back starts against the Nationals, who should provide a fair test of Oswalt’s remaining stuff. The decision to start or sit him is yours, but I’d wait until he’s made at least one more start before dropping him outright.

Stephen Strasburg (Yahoo: 35 percent owned, ESPN: 16 percent owned)

Last summer, as he awaited his call to the majors, everything start Strasburg made was front-page material, and while his rehab starts aren’t generating quite as much publicity, it’s pretty close to the same depth of coverage. His first outing was a good showing; the numbers are pretty much immaterial — ok, getting four of his five outs via strikeouts is pretty nice — it’s the fact that he felt good during and after the start that even borders on relevancy.

While there’s a good chance Strasburg will see some time in the majors in September, make no mistake, it is not a given that he will. Each start will see Strasburg ramp up his pitch count and if at any point he looks like he’s not coping well with the increase, the Nationals aren’t likely to push him through it. The risk is simply too much greater than the reward at this point in the season, which is big reason I feel that adding him now is prematurely speculative. If he makes 3-4 successful rehab starts, and you foresee needing a spot start in September, then perhaps he bears consideration.

Jordan Zimmermann owners should be especially cognizant of Strasburg’s progress through the minors, as there is a non-zero chance that Zimmermann will be shutdown at around the same time that Strasburg is ready to come up. However, with Brad Peacock already performing well in Triple-A, there’s no guarantee that Strasburg will be the one who replaces Zim in the rotation. As Zimmermann’s cap becomes a more pressing, the situation should become clearer, but if you know you’re going to need to replace one Nats pitcher, there’s a good chance another good option will soon become available to you. It just may not be the one you’re expecting.

Per-pitch numbers stabilize quicker than per at-bat numbers, or so goes an untested belief. Tested or not, the sample is larger, as the average at-bat lasts between three and four pitches. So you’d think that per-pitch numbers would stabilize up to four times faster.

Well, maybe the relationship is not so linear. But let’s use per-pitch numbers to take a look at Dontrelle Willis, who struck out ten Rockies last night and suddenly looks like a beast. Yes, that Dontrelle Willis.

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Let’s look at a pair of one-time fantasy stalwarts that have fallen by the wayside in recent years…

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Here is the latest update to Week 19 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: Danks, Wakefield, Reyes, LeBlanc.

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Floyd, Humber, Britton.

Let’s take a look at Jo-Jo Reyes. The California native was a second-round pick of the Braves in 2003. He had some very strong seasons in the minor in the Atlanta organization and he seemed destined to be the next impact hurler for the club. But in 41 games for the Braves, he was 5-15 with a 6.40 ERA.

Sometimes a change of scenery is what the doctor calls for in these situations and the Braves included him in the Yunel Escobar deal last year. But nobody expects a struggling pitcher to put things together pitching in the AL East. This year with the Blue Jays, Reyes was 5-8 with a 5.40 ERA in 20 starts before he was waived.

The Orioles picked him up, which is a classic good news-bad news deal. On the plus side, Reyes gets to continue his pitching in the majors. On the flip side, he’s still competing in the AL East. Reyes’ first appearance for Baltimore came in a relief role but he moves back into the rotation to replace Zach Britton, who suffered a shoulder strain.

In 121 games in the minors, Reyes recorded an 8.3 SO/9 ratio. But in the majors that mark falls to 5.7 SO/9. And when you combine that with a 3.9 BB/9, it’s easy to see why Reyes has struggled so much in his time in the big leagues.

Reyes throws hard and he is primarily a fastball pitcher. The problem is that he is just not overpowering with the pitch and his secondary offerings are not enough to make up for that fact. He also throws a slider and a change. This year the slider has been a decent pitch for Reyes, but he only throws it 11.3% of the time.

He gets some swings outside of the zone (31.0 O-Swing%) but batters have a 76.9 O-Contact%, which would be one of the worst marks if he had enough innings to qualify. Furthermore, Reyes has just a 6.7 SwStr% this season, which matches his career average.

In his career, Reyes has done okay against LHB, with a lifetime .742 OPS allowed to lefties. Perhaps he can carve out a role as a LOOGY. But at this point, there’s little reason for optimism about Reyes turning into an effective starting pitcher.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 19.

Brett Cecil – In his last six games, Cecil has thrown a Quality Start five times. The main thing holding him down right now is his propensity for the long ball, as he’s allowed 10 HR in 70.1 IP this year for Toronto. But this week he has home starts against OAK and ANA, two teams below average in hitting HR. ANA could give him some trouble, as their top three HR threats have combined for 40 HR and all three bat righty. All 10 of Cecil’s HR this year have been served up to RH batters. But the matchup against OAK looks good and Cecil is a guy you can likely pluck off the waiver wire and stream this week.

Matt Garza – In 21 starts this year, Garza has managed just 5 Wins. But he has an outstanding 9.02 K/9 and a respectable 3.78 ERA. His peripherals are even better, as Garza has a 3.14 xFIP, which is tied for the 10th-best mark among qualified hurlers. He’s been pitching well lately, with six Quality Starts in his last eight games. He’s been very good at home, where he squares off this week against WSN. Garza does have a road start against ATL, but the Braves have scored just 37 runs in their last 12 games. Keep Garza active this week.

Matt Harrison – The matchups are favorable for Harrison this week as he faces SEA and OAK. He’s also been pitching extremely well over his last 15 games, with a 2.57 ERA in that span. Wins have been hard to come by for Harrison this year, but he picked up a victory in three of his last four decisions over his last five starts. Get him into your lineup this week.

Daniel Hudson – Since being acquired from the White Sox last year at the trade deadline, Hudson has 17 starts at Chase Field and he is 9-4 with a 2.69 ERA and a 1.035 WHIP. This week he has home starts against the Astros and Mets, two teams that have made trades with an eye on the future which have limited their offensive firepower this season. Make sure that Hudson is active this week.

Justin Masterson – It has been a streaky season for Masterson, who started off 5-0 with a 2.11 ERA after seven starts. He then proceeded to go 0-6 in his next nine games. But Masterson is back on track since the beginning of July. He had six stars in the month and went 3-1 with a 1.58 ERA. Masterson still struggles against LHB but faces the Twins, who are playing without Justin Morneau. His other matchup is against the Tigers, which should be a little more difficult, but in two starts against Detroit this season he’s allowed 4 ER in 13.1 IP for a 2.70 ERA. He should be in your lineup this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 19 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Halladay, Haren, Shields, Marcum, Vogelsong, Baker, Stuaffer, W. Rodriguez, Kuroda, Jackson, Floyd, Fister, Lowe, Humber, Harden Marquis, Bailey, Pelfrey, Capuano, Morton, Guthrie, Willis, Hochevar, Britton, Hammel, Francis, Lyles, Rogers, Furbush, Hand, Wang.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 17 pitchers and how they fared.

R. De La Rosa – Advised to start. W, 11 Ks, 3.60 ERA, 1.600 WHIP, 10 IP, 4 ER
F. Garcia – Advised to start. 2 W, 11 Ks, 3.29 ERA, 1.171 WHIP, 17.2 IP, 5 ER
Karstens – Advised to sit. 8 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 12 IP, 6 ER
Narveson – Advised to start. W, 7 Ks, 3.86 ERA, 1.371 WHIP, 11.2 IP, 5 ER
Pavano – Advised to sit. 2 Ks, 15.00 ERA, 2.444 WHIP, 9.0 IP, 15 ER

The voices from on high have heard your plea for updated NL pitcher ranks and I shall deliver them to you. The tiers are sorted by how great it would be to have one of these things in your town.

The Pyramids of Giza

Roy Halladay
Clayton Kershaw
Cole Hamels
Cliff Lee

These guys have given you a strong season from first pitch on and they don’t show signs of breaking down anytime soon. While Phillies fans are obviously rooting for their team to win the NL East by as many games as possible, owners who are relying on one or more of Halladay, Hamels, and Lee might quietly root for the Braves to keep the division close. A large lead increases the likelihood that the top of the rotation will be rested down the stretch. Read the rest of this entry »

On a night when Ricky Romero was a Desmond Jennings‘ home run away from a no-hitter, when the White Sox were thankful that the rain saved them from three more innings of Phil Hughes, and when David Huff held down the potent Red Sox’s offense only to be being demoted for his troubles, perhaps the most surprising pitching line came courtesy of the Angels’ Ervin Santana. The right-hander shutdown the Twins en route to the first complete game following a no-hitter since Tommy Greene did it for the 1991 Phillies, for a line of 9 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K.

It isn’t at all uncommon for a pitcher to struggle after a no-hitter or perfect game: Francisco Liriano lasted just three innings against the Tigers after throwing a season high 123 pitches in no-hitting the White Sox and Edwin Jackson made it out of the sixth inning just once in the month after his 149-pitch no-no. Two factors helped Santana avoid their fate on Tuesday. First, his no-hitter wasn’t as strenuous as many no-hitters are; he threw just 105 pitches, barely above his season average of 102. Second, the Twins didn’t exactly wear him out with their approach. While Santana did tie a season high with 121 pitches, he got seven first or second pitch outs and had innings of just seven, eight, nine, and 11 pitches. Santana has given up more than three runs in an outing just once in his last nine starts, but he’s rostered in 89 percent of ESPN leagues and 72 percent of Yahoo! leagues, so it’s worth checking if he’s on the wire, especially in shallow leagues.

While it’s unlikely that Santana or Romero (owned in 89 percent of Yahoo! leagues and 100 percent of ESPN leagues) are available to you, Tuesday’s other impressive AL starter probably is. Phil Hughes (owned in 36 percent of Yahoo! leagues and 24 percent of ESPN leagues) was cruising against the White Sox before rain shortened his start, as he needed just 65 pitches to make it through the sixth inning. He has three quality starts in four outings since the All-Star break, but isn’t yet logging many innings in his starts, which is why his low pitch count last time out is especially notable.

Hughes is still relying heavily on his four-seam fastball, and hasn’t yet gotten his cutter back to it previously effective state. The key for Hughes -— and the point at which he returns to being a solid fantasy options —- is his feel for his secondary pitches, both his cut-fastball and curveball. Until his command comes back, hitters can simply wait for Hughes to throw fastballs if he gets into trouble. While his four-seamer is good, it isn’t good enough to consistently beat hitters who are waiting for it.

Despite Tuesday’s good start, Hughes still isn’t showing enough to be worth adding in shallow or even normal mixed leagues, though in AL-only or deep mixed, he may be a worthy gamble -— especially since his next three starts are against the Angels, Royals, and Twins. Nevertheless, it’s worth keeping an eye on his next start, if he can keep his pitch counts low and show improvement in his secondary offerings, he could be a solid addition to a team with playoff aspirations.

Some ottoneu cats have to look to the future, just like the major league teams. How much more to the future can you look than signing 2011 draftees?

Of course, there’s a lot of attrition between now and then. So you have to focus on the top talent. The beginning of the first round boasted two such top talents, Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer. Cole, with super agent Scott Boras puling the strings, hasn’t signed yet. But the third overall pick, Bauer, has signed. How much might you pay for a recently drafted college pitcher? Let’s check in with ottoneu owner and FanGraphs writer Jack Moore, who recently won an auction for Bauer.

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