On Saturday, I looked at the pitcher leaders in F-Strike% in an attempt to identify those who may see better walk rates ahead. Today I will look at the opposite side of the coin. These are the pitchers who throwing the lowest percentage of first pitch strikes. A pitcher showing up on this list with a league average walk rate or better is likely going to experience an increase in the near future.
As intuition would suggest, F-Strike% has a high correlation with a pitcher’s walk rate (though I can’t seem to find the article that studied the relationship). One of the obvious reasons is because a first pitch strike is a strike, so you already know the pitcher is starting with an 0-1 count. Whenever I analyze a pitcher, I like to compare his F-Strike% with his BB/9 or BB% to see if those last two numbers are sustainable. Today I look at the leaders in F-Strike%. These are the guys who should also be atop the leader boards in walk rate. This is where we search for those who may see an improved walk rate in the future.
The great thing about having a weak pitching staff, as opposed to a poor offense, is that there are always new pitchers being called up who could potentially generate some fantasy value. This is why I have always trumpeted going cheaper than everyone else on your pitching staff during your draft/auction. Let’s take a look at some of the younger guys who have
Since getting his chance to start consistently for the first time in 2010, Bud Norris has been a solid source of strikeouts for fantasy players, especially those in deeper leagues or NL-only players. A bit like Brandon Morrow, Norris’ strikeouts in 2010 came at a cost as he wasn’t particularly rate-stat friendly. He did improve both his walk rate and his BAA in 2011, and it showed as his WHIP fell from 1.48 to 1.33 and his ERA from 4.92 to 3.77, but it came with a commensurate decline in his strikeout rate, which dropped from 9.25 to 8.52. A K/9 of over 8.5 is definitely still playable, but when neither his WHIP nor his ERA actually moved into the “useful” category, fewer strikeouts were a trade-off many owners weren’t willing to make. Read the rest of this entry »
We’re deep in the heart of Roy Oswalt Watch 2012, which is not quite a hullabaloo but is slowly ratcheting up the volume and frequency. Now the rumor is that he’ll go to the Rangers. Should he picked up in all leagues right now?
On Monday, I looked at the pitching leaders in SwStk% to see if we can expect any strikeout rate surges in the near future. Today, I will check in on the opposite end of the ledger, those pitchers whose SwStk% are at the bottom of the totem pole. Obviously, these are not the guys you want on you fantasy team. Let’s see if any of them have higher strikeout rates than you would expect and are therefore in for some regression.
Last week, I looked at several American League starting pitchers off to disappointing starts and asked whether we should buy low or not. This week I am not going to do the same as the only possible argument one can make for continued success from these pitchers is their team’s defense. As such, all are strong sells as I would much prefer to bet on skill winning out that expecting elite defensive support to continue.
Last season, targeting a Pirates starting pitcher on draft day or even on the wire was ill advised for the vast majority of fantasy players. Sure Charlie Morton — 2.2 WAR, 5.77 K/9, and a 3.83 — didn’t have a horrible season, but when he was the Pirates best starter, there isn’t much upside left for the rest of the staff to aspire to. This season, Erik Bedard’s been pretty good, A.J. Burnett hasn’t been bad at all, and while they both would have been in contention for the title of Cy Young on the 2011 Pirates, they’re both sitting a ways behind the team’s ace, James McDonald.
Although it feels like every other week we lose another established arm to testy ligaments (or well trained ligament surgeons), it has the alternative effect of making you dig a little deeper for starters who are not only worthy of a roster spot, but ones that ought to be actual contributors. It’s the proverbial silver lining – you may experience a catastrophe, but you might discover a hidden gem in the process.
Lose a Cory Luebke? A Neftali Feliz? There are solutions.
Justin Masterson was bombed by the Seattle Mariners in his third start of the year and he almost immediately started hitting waiver wires across the contiguous fantasy landscape. Being blasted by a team that has set historic marks for offensive ineptitude is just difficult to stomach after all.
It’s that day of the week again, time for another walk along the waiver wire. Do you make it safely to the end or fall off and fail miserably with your free agent pickups? Luckily, you have the Mike Podhorzer guide ropes to help you keep your balance.