On Friday, I looked at some 2011 Luck leaders and laggards among full time hitters. Today, I am looking at pitchers that pitched over 180 innings. They were the workhorses of a pitching staff.

I would like to make a couple of points to begin with. First, if a pitcher struggles, they are not as likely to pitch as much. The list shows more lucky pitchers than unlucky pitchers. I see this as totally expected. Second, I assumed a league average BABIP for each pitcher. There is some evidence that some pitchers are able to have some control over their BABIP. Feel free to adjust the ranking if you believe the numbers to be incorrect for a pitcher.

Here are the leaders and laggards for 2011 (a complete list of hitters and pitchers from 2009 to 2011):

Here are my thoughts on some of the players:

Jeremy Hellickson – In his first full season in the majors, Jeremy had a great year. He had an unbelievable BABIP (0.223). This value allowed his ERA (2.95) to be about 1.5 less than his FIP (4.44) and xFIP (4.72). He has no history of out performing his BABIP like Cain or Weaver. He may be a decent pitcher, but it is time to SELL HIGH.

Clayton Kershaw – The key to his emergence as an ace is the drop in BB/9 over the last 3 years from 4.8 to 3.6 to 2.1. As long as he keeps the walks down, he will remain a top pitcher. Now, I would say that I would have no problems moving him in the right deal. His value is pretty much topped out after winning the pitching triple crown.

Josh Beckett – Last season, he ranked as the most unluckiest pitchers (-9.7 Luck) among those pitchers that threw over 100 IP. This season he rebounded into one of the league’s better pitchers.

Ian Kennedy – I am not sure what to think of his 2011 season. He had a lower home run rate (1.21 HR/9 to 0.79 HR/9) and walk (3.2 BB/9 to 2.2 BB/9) in 2011 compared to 2010. I really don’t like to have a pitcher that pitches 1/2 their games at Chase Field. I would be careful about picking him up too early/high, but don’t be afraid if the price is right.

Bronson Arroyo – While he was never considered to be a great pitcher, his 2010 was decent for fantasy purposes. His 2011 was brought down by a career high 2.04 HR/9. I would see little interest in him, even in a deep league. He could be picked up for little next season.

Fausto Carmona – Fausto is not a good pitcher. He is still getting too much love from the 2007 season when he got 19 wins. He does not even had a K/BB rate over 2.0 in 4 seasons. Just stay away.

A.J. Burnett – All of his problems this year came from giving up the long ball. His xFIP (3.86) is inline with both Cain’s (3.78) and Weaver’s (3.80) xFIP. Also, his career xFIP (3.78) is close to his ERA (4.10) and FIP (4.01). I would expect a nice rebound from him next season.

I have learned rather quickly that criticizing a player will get you a lot more angry comments than praising a player someone thinks isn’t very good. So with trepidation, I unveil my first Overvalued in 2012 pitcher, Ivan Nova.

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Raise your hand if you have ridden the Homer Bailey bandwagon at one time in your life, got burned by his continual disappointment and have sworn off ever drafting him again. That is what I expected, every virtual hand in the air. Bailey is that player who will probably have that breakout season just when the entire baseball and fantasy world has given up on him. But here he is again, finishing the season strong and giving us hope one last time. But is it just another tease?

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On Saturday, I looked at three starting pitchers with the potential to experience a K/9 surge in 2012. Today I will use the same methodology of comparing the pitcher’s SwStk% to his K/9 to look for those who may see a K/9 decline next season.

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As we near season’s end, it is time to start looking toward 2012 and to determine which players may see a performance spike, and therefore be a target in your fantasy drafts. As I have mentioned many times in the past, SwStk% is one of my favorite advanced metrics to analyze for pitchers. It correlates highly with a pitcher’s strikeout rate, and the relationship is intuitive to both stats freaks and stats haters alike. Here are three pitchers whose SwStk% suggest better strikeout rates could be in their futures.

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You say you’re season is winding down and you need to pick up a few extra W’s to close the gap on an oppontent? Here are two readily available pitchers with favorable matchups in action tonight

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Nearly three months into the season, I looked at three American League starting pitcher disappointments and wondered if we should expect them to experience better days ahead. The Major League ERA at the time was just 3.88, the first time it was below 4.00 since 1992. It has risen since, but barely, as it still sits at just 3.93. That means the busts are hurting your fantasy team even more than usual. So let’s take a look at how these three pitchers have fared since and what we could expect in 2012.

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It’s the final week of our look-ahead to the 2012 fantasy baseball season by highlighting potential impact rookies at each position. Because it’s never too early to begin thinking about next year, even if you’re trying to win your league right now. And for those of you in keeper leagues, particularly deeper ones, these primers will be especially helpful, because you’ll find out which young players may be worth snatching up now — before other owners get a clue — so you can hang onto them next season, when their value kicks in. Think of it like an investment requiring only a little up-front cost that could pay off big in the near future.

Much like my Mining the Minors columns on this site, which focus on current-season impact more than long-term upside, these 2012 rookie primers are meant for players who will fulfill or are expected to fulfill their rookiedom next year. Also much like my MTM work, the point here is to find the right mix of opportunity and talent, so that you’re picking up a player who can contribute, either in a starting role or as a reserve, from Day 1 or soon thereafter. Chances are, I’ll hit on many of these same players in depth at some point in future Mining the Minors columns, but for now, it’s good to get ahead of the curve with a snapshot of the talent at each position.

To give you a brief idea of just how this sort of thing can be worthwhile, I’m in two deep keeper leagues, one AL-only and one NL-only, and around this time last year, I picked up Mark Trumbo, Jordan Walden and Brandon Beachy. Worked out pretty well, if I do say so myself.

Click on the position to see previous primers: Catchers, First Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstop, Outfielders

Here are the starting pitchers.

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Cory Luebke

I’m surprised not only that Luebke is owned in fewer than 50 percent of leagues, but also that his rate of ownership is dropping. I expressed some concerns previous about how fatigue would affect Luebke, who certainly shut me up by cruising through his next three outings, allowing just six runs and striking out 26 over 18.2 innings. All three games were away from the ample spaces of PetCo Park, so his success isn’t a park-induced mirage. Apparently owners were expecting more from the lefty?

Luebke gets the Padres’ last Sunday start of the season, at home no less, against the Dodgers. It’s a less than ideal match up, as the Dodgers have started to click offensively this month, boasting the NL’s fifth highest OPS, third highest number of runs scored, and fourth fewest strikeouts. To complicate matters further, Luebke’s mound opponent on Sunday is serious Cy Young contender Clayton Kershaw, who will be looking to pad his resume with one more strong start. Even if Luebke pitches well for his fourth consecutive start, he’ll need help from the Padres’ sputtering offense to snag a win. Tim Lincecum was able to shut the Dodgers’ offense down pretty well on Tuesday and was still saddled with the loss as his teammates couldn’t solve Kershaw.

It’s just not a great matchup for Luebke, but I still expect him to pitch well. If you need help in ERA, WHIP, or Ks, he’s likely to be as good an option as is still on the wire, but if you’re hunting for wins, it’s probably better to gamble elsewhere.

From a good pitcher with a bad match up to lesser pitchers who have a much easier road ahead of them.

Alex White

White’s transition to the National League has been, in a word, rocky. He’s struggling with the long ball, having given up at least one home run in every start since coming over to Colorado in the Ubaldo Jimenez trade. It’s hard to be overly critical of a young pitcher who is struggling to figure out how to pitch in Coors Field, and I firmly believe that White will figure it out sooner or later, but the issue is what to do with him at this moment.

As noted above, the best thing White has going for him this week is his match up. The Astros have the second lowest OPS this month at .622, better only than the Twins’ rather wretched .597. Not only does White get the benefit of facing the team with just one more home run this month than Ian Kinsler has hit on his own, he also gets the benefit of escaping Coors Field. While he hasn’t exactly been great on the road, he’s given up seven fewer home runs on the road in one less start.

Teammates Drew Pomeranz, Esmil Rogers, and Kevin Millwood round out the starters in the four game series. Pomeranz has been better than White, but with no major league track record to speak of, he’s a bigger question mark as well. Rogers has the best K-rate of those that will face the Houston, but he’s given up fewer than four runs just once in his last seven outings. Millwood has been alternating between good and bad starts, though the good starts aren’t great and the bad starts aren’t disastrous. He’s the human middle path.

If you’re determined to take advantage of the Astros’ light-hitting ways, I’d roll the dice with Pomeranz, followed by Millwood, White, and Rogers. If you’re dying for strikeouts, Rogers is still the safest bet, but you’d better feel comfortable with your lead in most of the rate categories.

It’s the last full week of the regular season, so here’s some middle infield and pitching help for those of you needing to make up some ground in your leagues (or pad your lead, either works)…

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