Before there was Stephen Strasburg, there was Jordan Zimmermann. After missing part of 2009 and nearly all of 2010 with Tommy John surgery, Zimmermann was placed under a strict innings limit for his age-25 season in 2011. Despite performing well, he was still shut down after he crossed the 160 inning threshold, and was not seen again after August 28.

For Nationals fans hoping that GM Mike Rizzo made the right call in shelving Strasburg at a similar point in his recovery this year – it was of course less of a lightning rod for Zimmermann, since he’s not Strasburg and the 2011 Nationals weren’t nearly as competitive as the 2012 version – the tremendous success of Zimmermann in his first year with the reins off has to be seen as a cause for great optimism. Read the rest of this entry »

Stop me if you’ve heard about “enigmas wrapped in riddles surrounded by mysteries” before. Well, that was essentially Clay Buchholz’s 2012. Many fantasy owners hoped to buy low on Buchholz going into the year; fondly remembering his 2010 season while hoping the back injury that shelved him for more than half of 2011 was a distant memory. In ESPN leagues, he went 53rd among starting pitches (193rd overall) meaning he fell into the 14th-16th rounds in standard 12-team leagues. What managers couldn’t imagine was drafting a pitcher who could do more harm to their roto categories than if they had just started an empty roster slot. But that’s exactly what Buchholz was in April and May, putting up an ugly 7.19 ERA and dragging his owners down into the abyss. However, eventually the calendar flipped to June, and “good Buchholz” emerged from some sort of baseball cocoon, beginning a run that saw his 7+ ERA metamorphose into a 3.45 over the final four months of the season. Throw these two versions of the Boston righty into a cauldron and you end up with a guy 73rd in Zach Sanders’ 2012 rankings (below replacement value), but one who went from being completely and utterly unrosterable for more than eight weeks to a hurler who stabilized many rotations during the longest days of the summer.

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James McDonald looked like one of the biggest surprises during the first three months of the season. His performance was a big reason for the Pittsburgh Pirates status as contenders in early-July. But, much like the Pirates, McDonald collapsed during the second half of the season. While he still had the best season of his career, his end of the season numbers look pretty ordinary. That should limit his value for next season, making him a solid sleeper candidate.

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Given his previous prospect pedigree, it wasn’t terribly shocking to see Jarrod Parker perform so well in his first season in the big leagues. However, throw in the fact that he missed the entire 2010 season due to Tommy John’s surgery and now there was suddenly doubt cast over the young hurler.

Fortunately for himself — and for his future fantasy owners — Parker came roaring back in double-A in 2011 and earned himself a late season MLB start. He was seasoned for all of four games in triple-A in 2012 and then earned another call up. Despite pitching a grand total of 20.2 triple-A innings, according to ERA, Parker hit his stride almost immediately. His first half 2.96 ERA was sparkling, despite some underlying issues.
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Yesterday, the Angels acquired 29-year old southpaw Jason Vargas from the Seattle Mariners. Vargas has performed at just about a league average level according to ERA- in half of his four seasons with the M’s. Let’s see how the ballpark switch might affect his results.

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Going into the 2012 season, Mike Minor seemed to have good enough stuff for the makings of a decent fantasy pitcher. An above average strikeout rate and a below average walk rate are usually the components of a decent fantasy pitcher. Also, he looked to be a bit unlucky in 2011 and was posed for a breakout in 2012. The breakout eventually happened, but it occurred halfway through the season. He may be able to continue the 2nd half improvements into 2013.

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Terrible TV commercials aside, it is hard to argue that “going to Jered”  has been anything but a good thing. For the second straight year Jered Weaver has ranked in the top 10 in terms of qualified starting pitchers ERA. Sure, ERA isn’t the most reliable evaluation metric, but for fantasy purposes it clearly suits us quite well. Considering that it has been almost 650 innings since Weaver last posted a seasonal ERA above 3.02, it’s safe to say that Weaver is an elite pitcher.

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More often than not, when a pitcher crosses over from the American League to the National League, he usually finds a little more success than if he were crossing over the other way. Aside from the simple fact of replacing a designated hitter with a light-hitting pitcher in the lineup, there are other nuances, such as simple pitch selection, that usually favor the former AL hurler. But scrolling down Zach Sanders’ Starting Pitcher End of Season Rankings all the way to number 94, you’ll find an exception in Royals’ starter Jeremy Guthrie. He basically crossed over twice in 2012 and in both cases, bucked the stereotype. Read the rest of this entry »

Jeremy Hellickson was a major bust candidate entering last season. The 2011 Rookie of the Year may have pitched well according to traditional methods, racking up a 2.95 ERA over 189 innings, but the peripherals told a different story. Hellickson didn’t display a dominant skill set, posting very average strikeout and walk rates. Most of all, Hellickson’s .223 BABIP was the lowest figure in the league among starting pitchers. Even with all the warning signs, Hellickson succeeded again. And while his .261 BABIP didn’t lead the league, it still tied him for sixth. After two straight seasons of outperforming his peripherals, and posting low BABIPs, it’s time to start wondering whether this is going to be a trend with Hellickson.

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I would like to reintroduce you to the good A.J. Burnett. He has finally reappeared. Whatever was done with him over the last couple of seasons, we are thankful for his safe return. After two straight miserable seasons in New York where predictably the media claimed that Burnett simply couldn’t pitch in New York and contracted Ed Whitsonitis, Burnett rebounded in his first year back in the National League.

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