BASEBALL! The season is officially under way and that means that I will have absolutely no life outside of watching and analyzing this wonderful game through October. Over the past couple of days, roster decisions were made, position battles sorted out and rotation slots won. Some of those rotation spot winners were quite the shock. Let’s discuss a few of them, shall we?
On my last day down at Spring Training I was lucky enough to catch two high profile pitching prospects face each other in a minor league game at Astros camp in Kissimmee. Houston power arm Jarred Cosart opposed the also highly regarded A.J. Cole of the Washington Nationals. I thought today I’d provide a little breakdown of those two pitchers and how they can potentially help your fantasy team.
The Breakdown: Cosart
A 38th round pick by the Phillies out of high school in Texas, Cosart is a big, athletic pitcher who can throw mid 90’s all day long. He has a quick arm and the ball comes out of his hand well. Cosart looks like he throws even harder than the 94-96 mph at which I clocked him. I kept looking down expecting to see a 98 or 99 but never got it. There’s some effort in his mechanics, but nothing that would trouble me in terms of workload or injury. The issue with Cosart is more a question of how his mechanics affect his command. He has trouble repeating his delivery and varies his timing. Some of this is a result of a long arm action in back. He also has a prominent head jerk as he releases the pitch and a cross-fire finish to his arm action. These qualities lead to an inconsistent release point and problems finishing up. This is not conducive to the fastball command necessary to be am effective big league starter. Cosart’s power curveball (78-80 mph) shows some tight spin and deep break but it’s mostly useful as a chase pitch only. He also telegraphs the curve with a pronounced difference in his arm action. There’s no real feel for an off speed offering here. Cosart mixes in a straight change but they were all hard, straight and up in my viewing. The ultimate profile here looks to me to be a relief arm but at age 23 he’s still capable of making adjustments that would fix some of the holes in his game.
Yesterday, I got outrageously bold with predictions for the league leaders in the five fantasy hitting categories. Today, I check in on the pitching side of the ledger with some equally crazy forecasts.
Given his initial contract demands, three years at about $15 million per year, and what he signed for, three years at $11 million per year, it’s hard to argue that Kyle Lohse was one of the offseason winners. That said, the initial responses to the deal seem to point to the idea that even if Lohse lost, the Brewers didn’t exactly win by signing him. The money isn’t likely to be an issue with the deal – Lohse only needs to be worth about two wins a season to justify the cost – but the loss of a draft pick to a division rival is an abstract cost for which Lohse won’t be able to directly answer.
But the money is spent, Lohse is a Brewer, and the question at this point is whether or not he’ll be able to provide the team with value above and beyond the two wins necessary to justify his contract. Read the rest of this entry »
“Don’t trust the spring training numbers.” It’s a common phrase uttered by wise fantasy analysts. For many reasons, spring training stats are an unreliable gauge of a player’s talents. Despite the constant reminders that spring numbers don’t matter, countless articles will be written chronicling “player X” and his excellent spring. Rick Porcello has emerged as one of the more popular spring breakout candidates this year. Ninety-five percent of the time, it would be wise to laugh off these articles as small sample size fodder. But in the case of Porcello, there may actually be reason to buy into the hype.
OMG, we’re a week away from BASEBALL that counts! You’ve seen the consensus starting pitcher rankings, questioned them and have been eagerly anticipating the tiers for a more detailed breakdown. Your wait has ended. It’s time to continue spurring comment arguments as I unveil the first edition of the American League starting pitcher tiers.
In standard drafts, the late round flyers are some of my favorite picks because on the one hand they “cost” you extremely little and on the other, there’s always the chance that you’ve picked up a gem on the cheap. Position battles are perfect spots to look for hidden value because many managers aren’t willing to float a pick for someone without a regular gig. With that in mind, there are a few starting pitching battles which might actually feature arms worth rostering.
Finally, we get to the starting pitchers, my favorite position. If you thought there was room for disagreement among the outfielders, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet. The many disagreements of value among starters and the multitude of later round sleeper options is precisely why my strategy in every single draft/auction I participate in is to pay the least for my staff or wait many a round to draft my first starter. For this last episode of Pod’s Picks, I will only look at those I ranked in the top 84 as bullish picks, while the bearish group will include those in the consensus top 84. I went with 84 assuming about seven starters per team in a 12-team mixed league would earn positive value.
A couple weeks ago, I covered C, 1B, 2B, and SS. Since then, I have also shared my rankings spreadsheet. Today, we cover 3B, OF, SP, and RP.
The lessons are going to remain pretty similar – guys with high walk rates rank higher, guys with a lot of speed rank lower – and will extend to the pitching sphere nicely – closers lose some value, guys projected for close to 20 wins lose some value, pitchers who keep the ball in the yard gain value. But it is still informative to look position by position and see where the differences manifest.
Last week I looked at a few underrated and overrated position player prospects. This week I wanted to follow that up by doing the same thing with some pitching prospects. The rule with prospects is always caveat emptor as they can’t typically be counted on for consistent production or performance. Still, “hitting” on a few helpful guys your league opponents didn’t expect to be useful can lead your team to fantasy glory.
Remember that these players are being evaluated entirely for their 2013 usefulness, without regard to keeper or dynasty implications.
