Early Velocity Gainers and Losers

Intuitively, it would make some sense for velocities to be down to begin the year. Pitchers may still be building arm strength and finding their feel. But surfing around player pages early in the season, I noticed what seemed to be an abnormally high number of guys with velocity down from where it was last year. As it turns out, velocities are down a smidge. The average four seamer velocity last year was 90.66 and is only 90.48 so far this season. However, the average velocity in April last year was 90.39. So there’s probably some truth to the idea that velocities will rise as a season progresses.

However, there are still a few starters this year that have seen their average velocity come in way below where it was last year. I compiled a list of 70 pitchers who threw 150+ innings last year and all qualified pitchers so far this season. I then compared their average velocities. Below is a list of the guys who have seen a decrease in velocity that is one standard deviation or more above the mean.

Name	2012	2013	Difference
David Price	95.5	92.5	-3
CC Sabathia	92.4	90	-2.4
Cliff Lee	91.7	89.7	-2
Max Scherzer	94.2	92.2	-2
Matt Moore	94.1	92.2	-1.9
Mat Latos	92.7	91.1	-1.6
Jeremy Hellickson	91.3	89.8	-1.5
Justin Verlander	94.7	93.2	-1.5
Joe Blanton	90.2	88.8	-1.4
Edinson Volquez	93.4	92.1	-1.3
Hiroki Kuroda	91.3	90	-1.3
Jon Niese	90.5	89.2	-1.3
Lance Lynn	92.8	91.5	-1.3

 

Because velocity is tied somewhat to swinging strike rate, I checked to see how each player’s swinging strike rate compared to last year.

Season	Name	SwStr%	Difference		Season	Name	SwStr%	Difference
2012	CC Sabathia	11.50%			2012	Jon Niese	7.80%
2013	CC Sabathia	10.90%	-0.60%		2013	Jon Niese	7.10%	-0.70%
2012	Cliff Lee	8.70%			2012	Justin Verlander	11.70%
2013	Cliff Lee	8.80%	0.10%		2013	Justin Verlander	11.40%	-0.30%
2012	David Price	8.30%			2012	Lance Lynn	9.80%
2013	David Price	7.00%	-1.30%		2013	Lance Lynn	9.70%	-0.10%
2012	Edinson Volquez	10.10%			2012	Mat Latos	10.10%
2013	Edinson Volquez	7.10%	-3.00%		2013	Mat Latos	10.60%	0.50%
2012	Hiroki Kuroda	9.60%			2012	Matt Moore	11.80%
2013	Hiroki Kuroda	10.70%	1.10%		2013	Matt Moore	8.70%	-3.10%
2012	Jeremy Hellickson	8.90%			2012	Max Scherzer	12.20%
2013	Jeremy Hellickson	8.90%	0.00%		2013	Max Scherzer	14.30%	2.10%
2012	Joe Blanton	9.60%
2013	Joe Blanton	6.00%	-3.60%

 

Obviously other pitches play in to swinging strike rate. And it is equally as obvious that we’re dealing with a small sample here. But eight of the 13 in the sample have seen their swinging strike rate decline, and only Kuroda and Scherzer have seen big gains in that category.

I also considered the possibility that these guys might be consciously taking something off in order to improve control. But again, eight of the 13 have seen their walk rate rise so far this season. Again, it’s a small sample and things other than velocity factor into control, but these are guys to keep an eye on going forward. For now, I’d be wary of using them in daily salary cap formats unless they have a great matchup or are coming in at a cheap price.

On the flip side, there are several pitchers who have seen big increases in their fastball velocity early in the season. Below is a list of the players from the 70-pitcher sample discussed above who have seen their average velocity rise by more than one standard deviation above the mean.

Name	2012	2013	Difference
Bronson Arroyo	86.3	86.7	0.4
James Shields	92	92.4	0.4
Jason Vargas	87.9	88.4	0.5
Homer Bailey	92.4	93	0.6
Ian Kennedy	89.2	89.9	0.7
Trevor Cahill	89.7	90.4	0.7
Adam Wainwright	89.9	90.7	0.8
Derek Holland	92.6	93.5	0.9
Mike Leake	89.5	90.5	1

 

 

 

 

 

 

Of those nine, six have seen an increase in swinging strike rate and one has remained stagnant. This list is more interesting than the list of guys who have seen a decrease in velocity because aside from Shields and Wainwright, the rest of the pitchers are either semi-acquirable by trade or possibly available on your waiver wire. Again, small sample size here, but these are some additional names to watch.