From Jeff Sullivan’s chat that’s happening *right now* on the site:

9:02 Comment From bdhudson
Jordan Zimmermann is developing a really unpleasant trend.

9:02 Jeff Sullivan:
This is an example of a prompt that sends me to 60 seconds of research

9:02 Jeff Sullivan:
This is why my chats go so much slower than others do

9:03 Jeff Sullivan:
Zimmerman’s first 13 starts: 2.00 ERA, 4% BB, 17% K

9:03 Jeff Sullivan:
Zimmermann’s last 12 starts: 5.27 ERA, 7% BB, 20% K

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As we head into the last month of the season, many fantasy owners are clamoring for more strikeouts and wins. Obviously, chasing wins is a fool’s errand (see: the Cardinals boxscore last night as Michael Wacha blew Shelby Miller’s win, allowing 3 runs in an inning of work, yet recorded the almighty win). But obviously, the more starts you accumulate, the greater the opportunity for the holy win, and of course, strikeouts.

With a large base of innings already in the books, that means that a pitcher’s implosion won’t hurt nearly as much at this point, so a streaming strategy isn’t ill-advised. So with that in mind, here is one recommended streaming play a day for games from Wednesday through Sunday. Pitchers should all be available in the majority of 12-team mixed leagues and shallower. Of course, since I don’t know who is in your free agent pool, there could be some better options, in which case I fully expect you to ask me about them in the comments.

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Chris Sale was far from a polished pitcher by the time he was drafted by the White Sox. Armed with two above-average pitches, some analysts believed he was bound for the bullpen. But in his brief time in the minors, Sale worked on a devastating slider. The pitch was so effective that Sale scrapped what many scouts believed to be his most dominant pitch, his changeup, during his stint in the club’s bullpen. The slider continued to be a dominant force in the rotation during Sale’s 2012 breakout, and has become the pitch most people associate as Sale’s best weapon. The slider may be what Sale is known for, but the changeup has always been his best pitch.

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From 2007 to 2011, Dan Haren was one of the best pitchers in baseball. Over those five seasons, he averaged 5.4 WAR, winning 73 games in more than 1100 innings pitched. In fantasy baseball, Haren might not have been profiled as a classic #1 starter, but he was typically among the top 12 pitchers off the board, and if he was your #2 starter, you were pretty well set up.

In 2012, things started to go south, and they went so in a hurry. His fastball velocity was off dramatically, his strikeout rate continued to fall for the third consecutive year, and he was simply much more hittable. His results weren’t awful, but they just weren’t the old Dan Haren: 4.33 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and a 19% strikeout rate. Pretty much the definition of a spot starter. Single handedly disproving the contract year phenomena, Haren couldn’t even find a suitor as a free agent until the Nationals took a one-year flyer on him in December of 2012.

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Although he started the season in the Padres’ starting rotation, Tyson Ross wasn’t anyone fantasy owners should have had on their radar coming into the season. He posted a 6.50 ERA and 4.80 FIP with the Oakland Athletics last year, striking out only 5.65 batters per nine innings and showing a penchant for dishing out free passes.

That sentiment proved true when the Padres sent him to Triple-A Tucson in the middle of April, and when he returned, he was relegated to a low-leverage position in the Padres’ bullpen. He had little-to-no fantasy value.

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Most prospect hounds are beginning to take notice of Rockies pitching prospect Eddie Butler. He entered the 2013 season with significant pedigree–he was selected 46th overall in last year’s draft–and has pulled off the rare feat of advancing two levels in his first full professional season. Butler made nine starts with Low-A Asheville and thirteen with High-A Modesto before the team deemed him done with the lower minors; he’s thrown ten scoreless, walkless innings with 12 strikeouts across his first two Double-A outings. That’s some serious prospect helium over the past four months.

Of course, this is a fantasy website. The notion of betting on a pitching prospect in fantasy can be terrifying in its own right, but betting on one destined for Coors Field is certainly unappetizing. Unfortunate environmental situation aside, Butler is definitely an arm to keep track of.

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I try to avoid analyzing small sample sizes, but I feel a pitcher’s small sample is significantly more insightful than a hitter’s. Well, at least if you are looking at the correct statistics. Obviously, ERA isn’t one of them. Strikeout percentage is though, as it could be the result of increased velocity, altered mechanics or a change in pitch mix. With this in mind, here are a smattering of pitchers whose appearance on the last-30 day K% leaderboard may surprise you.

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The Tigers won’t allow their Class-A pitchers to go more than an inning or two, maybe three, and short-season Connecticut starter Jonathon Crawford is no exception.

Crawford has done well in eight starts (0-2, 1.89), with three of them extended to three innings. He began August with an outing against the Brooklyn Cyclones, going 2.2 innings and didn’t allow a run on three hits. He struck out three and walked two.

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I recently wrote an article about Marco Scutaro and how his real-life value is far superior to his fantasy value. The on-the-field versus on-paper value disconnect has always been interesting to me since I started seriously playing fantasy baseball. Following up on the Scutaro article, I wanted to find an example of a starting pitcher who has been exceedingly effective on the mound, yet that effectiveness has not translated to fantasy value.

My immediate reaction was to focus on Hiroki Kuroda. He’s a guy who doesn’t strikeout many batters, yet consistently generates good results. However, he’s been the 11th-best starting pitcher in ESPN leagues this year. That knocks him out of the running for this article.

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To say it’s been an up-and-down season for Chris Capuano is putting it more than a little mildly. After a solid first half of 2012, Capuano fell apart down the stretch so badly that he entered 2013 as one of three excess Dodger starters, with little path back to relevance short of a trade. But then Chad Billingsley got hurt, and Zack Greinke got hurt, and Josh Beckett got hurt, and Ted Lilly got hurt, and Aaron Harang got traded — not necessarily all in that order — and Capuano found himself with a chance.

That lasted all of two innings on April 16 before he left with an injured calf, and when he returned in May, he made five starts of varying quality before landing on the disabled list for a second time, this due to a strained lat. Capuano rejoined the rotation in June, but was told he was headed to the bullpen when the Dodgers acquired Ricky Nolasco… only for that plan to be abandoned when Stephen Fife found himself sidelined with a sore shoulder hours later.

So after all that, Capuano is still in the rotation, and it brings us to this: Capuano has been really, really good lately, and he’s got an incredibly easy run of opponents lined up. Read the rest of this entry »