Rick Porcello is one of those guys whose ERA estimators (xFIP, SIERA) are always lower than his actual ERA. Prior to 2013, no one really cared because his estimators were basically 4.00 or higher. But last year his estimators fell dramatically; his xFIP was 3.19 and his SIERA was 3.39 while his ERA was 4.32. This presents a couple of questions. First, what caused the drop in xFIP/SIERA? Is it sustainable? If so, is it possible his ERA follows the same downward trend that his estimators did?

The first question, what caused the drop in his xFIP/SIERA, is pretty easy to answer. SIERA is primarily calculated with strikeout rate, walk rate and ground ball rate. xFIP is primarily calculated with the three true outcomes, strikeouts, walks and home runs. Porcello’s walk rate and ground ball rate have been consistently above average. In the last four years the league average walk rate ranged from 7.4% to 8%, and Porcello’s walk rate in that span was 5.7%. The league average ground ball rate ranged from 44.4% to 45.1%, and Porcello’s ground ball rate was 52.5%. It was his paltry strikeout rate that was holding his estimators back. From 2010-2012, the league average strikeout rate ranged from 17.6% to 18.7%, and Porcello’s strikeout rate was only 13%. But Porcello’s strikeout rate spiked up to 19.3% last year, and his ground ball and walk rates remained above average.

So is his improved strikeout rate, and by extension are his ERA estimators, sustainable? If so, I would expect to see something like a change in his pitch mix or a spike in velocity. And I’d also like to see his strikeout rate improve, or at least remain above average, later in the year. Read the rest of this entry »

Lest it seem like CC Sabathia simply fell apart out of nowhere in 2013, do remember that there were warning signs in 2012. Yes, he was still great that year, pitching 200 innings on the nose with one of the best K/BB marks of his career, but he’d done so while losing a mile off his fastball, landing on the disabled list twice, and submitting to elbow surgery following the season.

So perhaps it shouldn’t have been a complete surprise that 2013 was far from his usual standards, especially when you look at a terrifying velocity chart: Read the rest of this entry »

In 2013, Lance Lynn came in like a lion and out like a…well he actually his final four starts were rather lion-like. But throughout the middle of the season he definitely played the part of the lamb, much to the chagrin of his fantasy owners. Lynn did manage to provide over $6 of value according to Zach Sanders, mostly because he won 15 games and struck out 198 batters. His 3.97 ERA and 1.31 WHIP certainly weren’t helping anyone.

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There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding Justin Masterson. The Indians are rumored to be listening to offers on both he and shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera, and either of those moves could have a dramatic effect on Masterson’s fantasy value.

Fantasy owners would likely have their own uncertainty of Masterson whether or not he was in trade rumors. Zach Sanders listed him as the 28th-best starting pitcher last season worth $11 in standard formats, but Masterson showed a big spike in his strikeout rate over previous seasons and has a reputation as having extreme platoon splits.

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Atlanta Braves pitcher Julio Teheran finally lived up to his promise last season. The 22-year-old had been knocking at the door for two years, but couldn’t seem to fall into a full-time role. When he finally got his chance, Teheran didn’t disappoint. In his first season as a starter, Teheran tossed 185.2 innings with a 3.20 ERA, and a 3.69 FIP. There were some big questions about Teheran’s ability to pitch in the majors, particularly after 2012 saw him post a +5.00 ERA in Triple-A. One of those issues was still present last season, and is really the only reason to be concerned about Teheran moving forward.

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No, not the Roberto Hernandez who saved 326 games and spent his career in the bullpen, silly. It’s the Roberto Hernandez who became the artist formerly known as Fausto Carmona of course! After a disappointing season with the Rays that saw him post a 4.89 ERA and eventually get banished from the starting rotation, Hernandez signed a one-year deal with the Phillies yesterday. Twice Hernandez has earned positive value in fantasy leagues, while he has torpedoed the ratios of many a team in all other seasons. Now he moves into the National League, where pitchers typically see a bump in value.

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Taijuan Walker has graced the top tier of many prospect lists for some time now, and for good reason. The former first rounder from 2010 shot through the Seattle Mariner minor league system, displaying a great fastball, a good cutter, and what have been called work-in-progress tertiary pitches in his curve and change.

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On top of sharing the present author’s nationality, Hyun-Jin Ryu is noteworthy for his strong rookie season. After posting seven spectacular seasons in the Korean Baseball Organization, Ryu was signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers in early December of last year. As the first South Korean player to be posted, some wondered how much the difference in competitive talent would hurt Ryu. One season doesn’t make a career, however it seems as though Ryu is the real deal.
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After making just five starts in 2013, Gavin Floyd landed on the disabled list and headed in for Tommy John surgery which, obviously, put him on the shelf for the duration of the season and put his estimated return time to somewhere around mid-May of 2014. Not really the way you want to head into your walk year, is it? But the surgery was successful and all reports on his recovery have been positive. No one is jumping up and down and raving about his newly reconstructed arm, but the reports have been good. As such, Floyd was given a one-year, $4M contract by the Atlanta Braves and he will now finish his rehab under their watch. How things shake out in May, though, will be taken as they come. Read the rest of this entry »

If chicks dig the long ball, then scouts dig the high-octane fastball. And 22-year-old Royals right-hander Yordano Ventura has quite an electric one. His 97.5 average fastball velocity was the highest among every single pitcher who made a start in 2013. Even cooler, his fastball touched 101.9 mph according to PITCHf/x. It’s not outrageous for a reliever to throw that hard, as nine of them have since PITCHf/x has delivered reliable data. But starting pitchers simply don’t. Ventura officially unleashed the fastest fastball in the PITCHf/x era.

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