The 2013 season was a mixed bag for Tim Lincecum. Nothing epitomized his season more than his starts on July 13th and 22nd. The first was a no hitter against the Padres while the second was a 3.2 inning, eight run shelling against the Reds. All season long, he mixed great and poor outings with no rhyme or reason. The Giants were nice enough to reward him handsomely with a two-year, $35 million contract before he could reach free agency, but should fantasy owners be similarly generous?

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The kid with the creepy mustache turned in his finest season in 2013. Although it wasn’t backed up by the win column, Derek Holland was one of the finest starters in the American League, besting the likes of David Price, Doug Fister, Jon Lester, and Hisashi Iwakuma by way of wins above replacement. Perhaps because he only managed to eek out 10 wins, his 3.42 ERA (3.44 FIP) and 189 strikeouts seemed to be often overlooked in fantasy circles. In formats which don’t value wins, however, Holland was ace-like.

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No, Alex Cobb was never involved in a chemical spill, doused in a secret formula and thus given special powers, however that doesn’t stop him from being just as entertaining to watch as an old school Nickelodeon show.

As per Zach Sanders’ end of season rankings, Cobb finished just outside the top 30 for starting pitchers, coming in at number 32. If rate stats alone awarded position, Cobb certainly would have finished higher. A come-back line drive and subsequent concussion forced him to miss two months of the season and limited him to a mere 143.1 innings. Even in a shortened season, Cobb showed tremendous talent and fantasy value.

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Jose Fernandez made the Miami Marlins watchable last season. Given that the team won just 62 games, and was without Giancarlo Stanton for some time, that’s quite a task. At age-20, Fernandez somewhat quietly turned in one of the most impressive pitching performances we’ve seen in years. On a team full of questionable talent, Fernandez emerged as a symbol of hope for the franchise. Now comes the hard part. Fernandez will have to prove that he’s capable of doing it again. While there’s always a significant risk involved in putting too much stock in young pitchers, Fernandez has already put himself on an excellent path.

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When teams determine whether a pitcher is going to be a future reliever or a starter, one of the primary factors driving the decision is how many Major League quality pitches the hurler throws. Typically, a starting pitcher will have a larger repertoire of pitches at his disposal, primarily to neutralize opposite-handed hitters. We think of relief pitchers possessing two pitches, while starters generally throw at least three. But Tony Cingrani is built from a different mold. It seems that Mr. Cingrani hearts the fastball.

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It looks like it’s done. Mark Trumbo to the Diamondbacks, Tyler Skaggs and Hector Santiago to the Angels, and Adam Eaton to the White Sox. Who wins? Who loses? Let’s shake the tree and see what falls out.

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Like Stephen Strasburg, who we profiled yesterday, Cole Hamels possesses borderline elite talent but posted a disappointing return of about $8 in 2013. Hamels was the sixth overall pitcher selected in snake drafts last year with an average auction bid of $24.

Hamels was unfortunate enough to deliver a strong season for a poor team, which led to a 8-14 record. Most of his value came from the 220 innings and 202 strikeouts he recorded. His 3.60 ERA and 1.15 WHIP were fairly pedestrian for 12 team leagues. Despite a tepid return last season, Hamels has been one of the most predictably reliable pitchers in baseball and shows no signs of slowing down.

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Kris Medlen followed up his unsustainable 2012 breakout with a very solid 2013 campaign for the Atlanta Braves.

On the surface, his rate stats got worse, but that’s almost entirely a case of a 1.57 ERA and 2.42 FIP being largely unsustainable. The strikeouts took a slight dip, the walks inched up, and the BABIP and strand rate regressed closer to league-average levels.

Even still, Medlen was great, rating out as the 27th most valuable starter in fantasy and adding just shy of 200 innings of above-average pitching for the Braves.
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Thanks to Barry Zito, you would think that Brian Sabean and anyone one else within the San Francisco Giants’ upper management inner-circle would be scarred for life from fishing in the pond that houses the beloved Oakland Big Three from the early 2000’s. But lo and behold, they go back to the well and this time come away with right-hander Tim Hudson on a two-year deal worth $23M. While I would love to sit here and debate the merits of the deal with both the lovers and the haters of this signing, that ship has sailed already when Dave Cameron reported on the move back in mid-November. Feel free to skim through the comments section as there are certainly a few doozies in there. But since this is RotoGraphs, we’re going to talk about the fantasy aspect. You know, things like where Hudson will go in drafts and what kind of  return value should you expect. Read the rest of this entry »

The man formerly known as Jamie who arrived in the bigs with a meh fastball has made himself into quite the workhorse. Well, workhorse has somewhat of a negative connotation as it’s typically used to describe pitchers who throw a lot of innings, but not necessarily of high quality. James Shields‘ innings, at least over the past three seasons, have certainly been of high quality. He has given his two teams at least 227 innings a year, with an ERA ranging between 2.82 and 3.52. His 2013 performance was good enough to rank him as the 25th most valuable starting pitcher.

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