If you’ve been following me over on Twitter, then you’ll know that there’s nothing I love more during the offseason than a good ol’ mock draft. I love researching players and setting myself up with my own set of rankings and Draft Day depth charts, but one of the best tools for in-draft decisions is understanding public opinion.

It’s one of those rare instances in life where what everyone else thinks does, in fact, matter. Does no one seem to believe in this guy, so I can easily wait a few more rounds for him (i.e. my earlier Travis Wood dilemma)? Is he a recently outed sleeper whose public opinion has grown more mainstream thus forcing me to take him earlier than I had originally thought? These are always questions we ask ourselves during drafts and given that they usually hit us when we’re under the gun and have no more than a minute and a half (usually) to make that decision, knowing the answers ahead of time make it all the more easy to think and act on the fly.

And since we’re still talking starting pitchers over here this week and mock draft season is just getting underway — I’ve actually done six already, if you can believe that — I thought that looking at how pitching is already being viewed by many would be a good start. You’ll get a jump on things in the early goings and it also might help you make some of those tough keeper decisions you probably have sitting in front of you. Read the rest of this entry »

It goes without saying that the knuckleball is difficult to predict. It can break or flutter in any number of ways, twisting up hitters and catchers alike. It can also drive a fantasy player nuts, because there aren’t enough knucklers throughout history to help project the lone modern-day knuckleballer moving forward.

While largely disappointing, the season, it got better for R.A. Dickey.
As 2013 wore on, the knuckleballer regained some velocity on his trademark pitch and saw his performance improve, not quite to his Cy Young levels but to a place the Toronto Blue Jays would surely be happy with. That late-season progression is a positive for 2014, and the full-season stat line makes Dickey a potential value play in upcoming drafts.
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Dan Haren got off to a rough start in 2013. After coming off a questionable 2012, it was starting to look like Haren was cooked. A phantom trip to the disabled list in late June seemed like a last ditch effort to save Haren’s year. It worked, as Haren posted a 3.29 ERA over his last 15 starts. Haren’s 4.69 ERA doesn’t exactly tell the whole story of his season, which potentially makes him undervalued this season. But is that actually the case?

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One of the more interesting keeper choices I have in one league this offseason is Cubs left-hander Travis Wood. It was late in my auction draft and I was looking for some unheralded young arms who people seemed to be overlooking yet could be in line for a potential breakout. I ended up with Wood for $3. I could have gotten him for a buck, but one guy was simply trying to get people to eat through their remaining bid money and he forced me into the extra money. Given what I had left, I had no problem throwing down the extra cash and I’m happy I did as he put together a fantastic season for himself. Now, given our league inflation rate, he’ll only go to $4 for this year, but the question is, is he still worth it? Does he still have what I saw in him last March and can that be brought to the table once again? Read the rest of this entry »

We here at FanGraphs are big fans of Indians starter Corey Kluber. Well, at least Carson Cistulli is. He founded the Corey Kluber Society in mid-June, and as far as I’m aware, made Kluber the subject of the only society FanGraphs has founded to date. Are you a member? And after a breakout 2013 performance, it would appear that Kluber is indeed deserving of such attention.

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Prospect analysts generally ranked Danny Salazar between the fourth and tenth best prospect in the Indians farm system heading into 2013. That was a big swing and a miss. Salazar broke out last season and posted gaudy strikeout totals at every stop along with a 96 mph heater and a stingy walk rate. In a ten start, 52 inning sample in the majors, he pitched to a 3.12 ERA and 2.75 xFIP, neither of which appears suspicious in any way. His season culminated in a playoff appearance against Alex Cobb of the Tampa Bay Rays. It should have been the kind of noisy breakout experienced by Stephen Strasburg, but it’s quite possible that Salazar will be undervalued in fantasy leagues this spring.

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Clay Buchholz looks good. Clay Buchholz looks real good. Fans begin to wonder, “is this the Clay Buchholz we heard so much about in 2007?” Word is leaked that he is sore. No big deal, he’ll just skip a side session. Or a start. A few starts. OK, he’s on the disabled list. And now he’s dealing with some freak injury that no one can peg down. Welp, he’s missed half the season.

Sound familiar? If you are a Buchholz owner in a keeper or dynasty league, 2013 was the fourth year in a row where Buchholz hit the disabled list. The past three years, his injuries have been A) stress fracture to the L2 vertebra, B) esophagitis, and C) some sort of mysterious trapezius/neck/shoulder strain. When he was healthy, he was one of the best pitches in baseball, posting the lowest ERA among pitches with at least 100 innings and coming in 20th overall in our end-of-season cumulative FVAR rankings, even though he only tossed 108.1 frames.

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Matt Cain has been the picture of consistency and high-quality consistency at that. From 2009 through 2012, he pitched around 220 innings each season, posted ERA marks between 2.79 and 3.14 and struck out 171 to 193 batters. A typically weak Giants offense hampered his win total, but he was the fantasy ace who usually cost a bit less than the others. Perhaps us sabernerds simply kept waiting for the bottom to drop out and his apparent good fortune to fade, which depressed his price. But that never happened.

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Martin Perez has only thrown 162.1 innings in the majors, but he’s well-known within most baseball communities. He’s been one of the most-hyped prospects in the Rangers’ farm system in recent years, being named the number-three prospect and top pitching prospect by Baseball America in 2013.

Thus, when the Rangers promoted him to the big-league rotation for good in late June, many fantasy owners quickly jumped on the bandwagon and plucked him off waivers (if he was even available). Perez didn’t set the league ablaze like Jose Fernandez or display the makings of a potential ace like Gerrit Cole. He instead provided solid-average production and was a top-100 starter despite spending almost half the season in Triple-A.

As such, the 3.62 ERA won’t give anyone whiplash, but he won ten games and was nearly a two-win player in the majors at age 22. That’s nothing at which to scoff. The question, however, is how that level of production may look over the course of an entire season.

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In 2012, the prospect world was down on James Paxton. He was still getting strikeouts based on his curve, but his velocity was down and his control was terrible. Then he got his knee fixed, and suddenly he’s a desired commodity again. His story might remind us: as every baseball manager will tell you, it’s important not to get too high or too low. An even keel provides the best foundation for honest appraisal.

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