One of my strongest beliefs as a prospect/minor league writer is that there is far too much absolutism in most discussions of prospects in the online community. Part of the reason for this is simply a matter of demand–as you read about a minor league player (or, really, any player) at a place like FanGraphs or RotoGraphs, you’re likely interested in some sort of bottom line about how good the player is and might be. As such, there is a lot of pressure on the arbiters of the players to come up with a concrete answer–to make an actual prediction of their futures. In reality, though, prospecting is all about shades of gray, particularly in the low minors, which are my main focus. Just about every player in full-season ball has something going for them, but likewise, almost every player below Double-A has several aspects which need refinement before he has a chance at big league success. Predicting the eradication of those problems and the amount to which the strengths are realized is largely an exercise in probability, not one of guessing “good,” “bad,” or “okay” and clinging to it…to say nothing of the factors of injuries, regression, and the like. Any glance at a top prospect list from five years ago, regardless of the authors or their credibility, should drive this point home soundly–many of the top players go on to struggle, whereas several off the list entirely go on to have excellent careers.

For all of my relativistic outlook, though, occasionally I run into a player who’s just so impressive that my mind can’t help but jump directly to concrete thoughts of stardom. Of the couple hundred pitchers I saw in person last year, nobody evoked those thoughts more strongly than Cardinals pitching prospect Alex Reyes.

Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, I wrote about Eddie Butler and how Colorado’s volatile starting rotation could open the door for Butler, and fellow prospect Jonathan Gray, to contribute earlier than expected. That got me thinking about how Matthew Wisler is in a similar situation with the Padres, especially following the news that Cory Luebke will miss all of 2014.

Ian Kennedy, one of baseball’s most durable pitchers over the last several years, is assured a spot in the rotation, as are Andrew Cashner and Josh Johnson. Cashner finally managed to stay healthy for a full season last year, and was quite good in his 175 innings, finishing the season with a 3.09 earned run average and 1.13 walks plus hits per inning. The problem with Cashner is that he had thrown a total of 316.2 innings in his five previous professional seasons.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Pirates starting pitchers were damn good last year. They posted a 3.27 ERA, good for third best in baseball and the National League, and delivered an intriguing mix of strikeouts and ground balls. If the entire staff was one pitcher, it would be exactly the type I love. A.J. Burnett may be gone, but the rotation is still composed of a high upside group.

Read the rest of this entry »

Last season, the Cubs rotation finished smack dab in the middle of baseball in ERA, but 10th among National League teams. As is usually the case with teams, the staff included a host of overperformers and several underperformers. With two new addition to the rotation, there are many questions that need to be answered on the North side of the Windy City.

Read the rest of this entry »

This much we know about the 2014 Texas Rangers rotation on a chilly January day: it’s going to feature Yu Darvish, and it’s going to contain some other guys. That’s no slight to the candidates to fill the latter category — some of them are quite good. It’s just that, at this point, we don’t know exactly who they will be.

So let’s speculate wildly, shall we!

Read the rest of this entry »

The Brewers’ starting rotation got much more interesting last week, as they inked right-hander Matt Garza to a four-year deal with a vesting option. He and Kyle Lohse should headline a rotation that could surprise some people who wrote them off after posting a 4.13 ERA and 4.23 FIP in the first half last year.

In the second half, the Brewers’ rotation collectively turned a corner. Their 3.42 ERA was better than the Cardinals and Athletics in the latter half of the season, and it hints at what could be brewing in Milwaukee if the majority of breaks go the Brewers’ way. Marco Estrada was a beast down the stretch, Wily Peralta displayed signs of putting it together, and Yovani Gallardo finally tightened the tourniquet and stopped the bleeding.

Adding Matt Garza to the mix gives the Brewers five solid starters with a pair of intriguing arms waiting in the wings with Tyler Thornburg and Jimmy Nelson. It’s not a top-heavy rotation that will awe opposing teams, but it’s a rotation that could pair a couple number-two starters with three mid-rotation guys. Of course, that’s banking on no severe regression from anyone, but the organization has quietly assembled a starting rotation that projects to be at least league average.

But let’s look at the fantasy value because the name brands may not be where the value truly lies.

Read the rest of this entry »

The top four spots in the Rockies’ rotation, barring injury, seem pretty much set for the start of the 2014 season, but most of them carry significant risk. The exception is Jhoulys Chacin; other than a pectoral injury that cost him 3 1/2 months in 2012, he has been an effective, durable pitcher over the bulk of his seven professional seasons.

But then you’ve got Jorge de la Rosa, who has pitched more than 130 innings in just two of seven seasons since he transitioned to a starter full-time in the majors. Brett Anderson hasn’t thrown more than 83.1 frames since 2010. Tyler Chatwood is a decent, if thoroughly unspectacular, back-of-the-rotation starter.

Read the rest of this entry »

Let’s not dance around the subject, Jarrod Parker has an outstanding change-up. Since his first full season in 2012, Parker has teased fantasy analysts with a below average strikeout rate and above average swinging strike rate. Generally speaking, we consider swinging strike rate to be a leading indicator on overall strikeout rate. So Parker will get more strikeouts in 2014, right? Right???

Read the rest of this entry »

We probably can’t be worse.

That’s the likely slogan for the Houston Astros rotation entering 2014, because the 2013 rotation was a flaming tire-fire. Then finished 27th as a group in innings pitched, averaging fewer than 17 outs a turn, 26th in strikeouts per nine innings, 28th in ERA and tops for free passes issued.

The Twins, Orioles and Blue Jays were the only teams worse in terms of fielding-independent pitching metrics (4.42 FIP). It would be difficult for the rotation to get worse, is what we’re saying. But it’ll be a largely new crew, and they’ll try their best!
Read the rest of this entry »

So we know that the back of the Angels bullpen should probably perform better this year, but how will the games begin? The organization had a busy offseason, acquiring two young starting pitchers via trade to round out what will amount to a very interesting staff.

Read the rest of this entry »