It’s starting pitcher recap time, woohoo! So let’s kick things off by checking back with my preseason Pod’s Picks. I only included pitchers from my top 78 in the bullish section, while the bearish section lists only pitchers included in the RotoGraphs consensus (which excluded my ranking) top 78.
The 2014 fantasy baseball season has come to a close, so it is time to look back at the season past and determine which players were the most valuable at each position. Since it’s such a large class, we’ll be focusing on starting pitchers for a fortnight.
The players were ranked based on their 2014 production, using the evaluation system explained and updated on this site some time ago. The valuations are built for $260 budgets and standard 5×5 roto fantasy leagues, where only one catcher is started. Players are listed only at their primary positions from 2014.
One important thing to note is the premium (or lack thereof) placed on the position a player occupies in your lineup. For example, while a first baseman may be able to accumulate superior overall numbers, the availability of such production lower in the rankings severely dampers the amount the player was worth. These rankings are meant to reflect a player’s value should he have occupied this spot in your lineup for the entire year. A player who missed time due to injury but put up great numbers during his time on the field would be worth less.
This year, I’ve added in RotoGraphs’ preseason consensus rankings so you can see what we thought of each player coming into the year. This ranking can be found in the “Pre” column. “EOS” of course stands for End Of Season, and the rest should be self explanatory.
With all this in mind, here are your rankings. Read the rest of this entry »
Again, I will keep taking requests and if a pitcher is in the news, I will probably look at them. Some pitchers I am considering are Juan Nicasio, Carlos Rodon and Roenis Elias.
Why I watched: Great in the AFL and as a reliever. Horrible as a starter.
Game(s) Watched: 6/22/14 vs Mets
Game Thoughts
• The 24-year-old righty threw a straight 89-94 mph fastball with some release side run. It “rose” a bit making it flyball in nature (30% GB%). It was his only called strike pitch (63% Zone%).
My list of pitchers I want to look at is getting a little thin. Let me know if you have any suggestions. I have access to MiLB.tv so I can also look at some minor leaguers.
Why I watched: Recent rumors of him getting traded.
Game(s) Watched: 9/19/14 vs White Sox
Game Thoughts
• His two stop windup drives me nuts. Here are three examples at the 25 sec to the 50 sec mark from his start before the one I watched.
Why I watched: Rookie in Colorado
Game(s) Watched: 9/10/14 vs Mets
Game Thoughts
• The left-hander’s straight fastball was between 88 and 94 mph. It gets an outstanding 50% GB%, but doesn’t have a ton of noticeable downward break.
• He also threw an 83 mph slider which broke in the 10-4 direction. It was a plus pitch when he commanded it. A few times it barely broke, if at all. Hanging breaking balls usually go for home runs. The pitch is a killer on lefties. Overall, he is posted a 2.22 FIP against lefties and 4.35 against righties.
Madison Bumgarner has emerged as a reliable fantasy ace, one that nobody can ignore after a fantastic postseason. He practically won the World Series all by himself (more on that in this year’s THT Annual) with a 1.03 ERA, four wins, and a save over 52.2 October innings.
Read the rest of this entry »
Why I watched: Picked up some early and late starts with OK numbers.
Game(s) Watched: 9/25/14 vs Pirates
Game Thoughts
• The 26-year-old right hander threw two fastballs, a two- and four-seamer. Starting with the 90-92 mph four-seamer. It is fairly straight pitch with a bit of glove side run. It is about the only pitch he can throw for strikes. Here are his 2014 Zone% values :
Pitch: Zone%
Four season: 57%
Two seam: 40%
Curve/Slider: 27%
Change: 34%
If he needs to throw a strike, it’s only the four-seamer. Some hitters seemed to be looking for it when they are ahead in count since his other pitches rarely go for strikes. While I didn’t notice it during the game, it does get an insane amount of goundballs (51% during the season).
Here’s my ballsiest, way-too-early, 2015 Fantasy Baseball Prediction: Trevor Cahill becomes a fantasy asset again at age 27: the magical-mystery-kind.
For only the second time of his career last year, his FIP was sub-4.00, but his left-on-base rate was only 62.6% and his BABIP was 65 points higher than his career rate (.350 vs. .285). He was the trifecta (unlucky HR/FB rate as well) away from a 6.00+ ERA season.
The outcomes were bad. However, the outcomes on the pitch level were still impressive at times:
On 7/18, Madison Bumgarner changed his positioning on the mound. Eno noted it and Madison Bumgarner confirmed it. Bumgarner has worked to make his pitches (and I presume his release point) very similar through video and in front of a mirror “making sure he sets up in in the right places.”
Eno summed it up: “Bumgarner is ready to make the most of his old playbook. Throw lots of fastballs, cutters, and curves, all from the same release point, all with similar spin, and all exploding out of a slow, deliberate delivery.”
Last week, I examined rookie pitchers Daniel Norris and Rafael Montero for my weekly Quick Looks piece. With both pitchers, they had several pitches which just got away from them. There was no way a hitter was going even think about swinging at them. These pitches put the pitcher constantly behind in the count. While I could use Zone% to determine the amount pitches in or out of the strike zone, I wanted to look a little further out of the zone to find pitches not even close to the strike zone and I ended up with, Way Out of the Zone Percentage (WOOZ%).
I have wanted to look into this subject for while after hearing Brian Bannister mention something in a Baseball Prospectus podcast. He said some pitchers can have problems with their grips as they transition from the higher seamed minor league baseball to the lower seamed MLB baseball. Specifically, he noted it hurt pitchers who throw four-seam fastballs and curve balls. Since starting Quick Looks, which concentrates on young, new pitchers, I have seen a ton of pitches not near the zone which may be caused by not having a good grip. I needed to find and solution and for now it is WOOZ%.
