After three months, my kids are back to school and I finally have some additional time to restart my Quick Looks column. Today, I am going to start with a couple pitchers I saw at a while back but didn’t have time to type up. Hopefully each week, I will get a look at three to five pitchers and give you my take.

I will continue to implement player grading on the scouting scales of 20-80. I will use Kiley McDaniels scale he discussed in this article.

I will give a value for where I think the pitcher could currently fit in on the average team (CV=current value) and where they could end up (FV=future value). I am sure I will disagree with some grades from others, but I am only looking at one game.

Note: If I say a pitch moves 11-5, it is from the pitcher’s perspective.

Taylor Jungmann (CV: 50/FV: 55)
7/19/15 vs Pirates

Game Thoughts
• The 25-year-old righty really liked to pitch downhill keeping the ball low in the zone. Additionally, is fastball has some natural sink at times, so he should get a decent number of groundballs (46% on the season).
• His fastball was possibly two different pitches and Pitchf/x had problems labeling them. When the fastball was in the 93-95 mph range, it really straightened out and had little sink. When he kept it around 91 mph, it would get a nice amount of sink.
• His curveball was 75-76 and was a nice pitch. He used it as a swing-and-miss pitch and also for called strikes if needed.
• His change was between 84-86 mph with some release-side run. In this start, it was not consistent at all. Sometimes it broke, other times not. It seemed to improve a bit as the game went on.
• He would really pound the bottom of the zone and if he gets an ump with a higher zone, he may have walk issues.
• He could have some bad games were he gets BABIP to death with the ground balls.

Final thoughts: None of his pitches stood out as plus, but the combination really worked good together. It would be nice to see his walk rate drop a bit more. I see him being a 4th to 5th starter in 12-team leagues next year

Cody Anderson (CV: 40/FV: 40)
7/4/15 vs Pirates

Game Thoughts
• The 24-year-old righty had a nice start to the season, but as regressed quite a bit since then.
• His fastball was at 92-95 mph and can get some nice sink at the lower velocities.
• He had an 86-90 mph cutter/slider with some sinker/downward action. If that description sounds confusion is because the pitch was all over the place.
• His 83-85 mph change was straight as an arrow.
• He threw a curve at 81 mph with 12-6 break.
• None of the pitches had any swing and miss. His results are going to be determined by the quality of sacrifices he makes to the BABIP gods.
• He throws from a 3/4 release point and keeps the ball down. He lives on the edge of the strike zone with the change being the only pitch he throws into the heart of the zone.

Final thoughts: There is nothing here to be excited about. He is nothing more than a long reliever who will get a spot start now and then. There is no reason to own him. He needs to get his strikeouts in the 6 K/9 for me to be interested

Continuing from yesterday, here are updates on key young arms facing potential innings limits in September.

It is no secret that the Red Sox defense has been brutal at turning balls in play into outs this year. As a team, the pitching staff has allowed a .307 BABIP, second highest in the American League and fifth in baseball. But things are bound to improve as we have recently learned that Hanley Ramirez, currently sidelined with a sore shoulder, will never again (hopefully) play left field. Instead, he will take over first base duties when he’s healthy enough to return. While we have no idea how he will perform defensively at first, he can’t possibly cost the team as many runs there as he had done in the outfield!

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The biggest question in fantasy this September isn’t “who are the must-get call ups”, but rather “how many more IP does Pitcher X have left?” This is because many of the potentially high-impact call ups are already up and producing so barring substantial injuries, there just isn’t a lot of room for September additions to make a massive impact. Meanwhile several of those aforementioned high-impact prospects who might’ve been call ups a couple years back are now several months into their MLB careers after getting the call this summer and sticking.

Let’s take a look at where the youngsters of note are at this point in the season and try to get a read on how much they might have left in the tank. The general rule of thumb that Eno and I adhere to is 20% over your workload from the previous season. There is no set ideal for all pitchers, but 20% is usually what teams will give a young arm and then take it beyond that in a case-by-case basis.

We will start with the guys who won’t come close to the +20% threshold and thus shouldn’t be in grave danger for an innings limit cutting their season short:

(Dave Andersen published a similar post for hitters in our Community section last week. Check it out here.)

I want to say something inspiring such as “it’s never too late to make a move,” but that’s patently untrue. In two of my leagues, it’s too late. Very, very too late. That kind of statement only applies to contenders.

Interpret it in a different context, however, and it carries some weight. If you play in a dynasty league, you can, and should, always make moves.

Major League Baseball has a bounty of young, electric pitching talent. A lot of that talent remains largely unowned, too, while other pitchers retain lofty ownership numbers because of their name recognition.

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We know, not only because of Taylor Jungmann, but also from the Brewers’ starter, that not all pitches thrown seldomly with good results will remain as successful when thrown more often. Sometimes pitches are successful because they are rare and unexpected. Any batter can hit an eephus if you tell them it’s coming, but your average eephus gets 7% swinging strikes, mostly because they are surprising.

That said, we have some research on what makes curves and changeups good in terms of movement. So if we combine a pitch with elite results in a small sample with an appraisal of how good the movement and velocity on the pitch, we should be able to say with some confidence that the pitch is good.

In order to find our subjects, I merely set the filter low for pitch types (40 pitches) and looked for starters with elite results on changeups, curves, and sliders. It takes 150 plate appearances for strikeout rate to be stable, so this is probably a small sample even for pitch type ‘strikeout rate’, but we’re scouting here, trying to find the elite before they are actually elite.

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In deeper leagues, especially those of the mono-league variety, everyone is typically always in search of better pitching. Hitting too, of course, but that’s for another article. The problem with deep leagues is that no one has depth. So to fill one hole you will almost assuredly create another one. It’s simply much more difficult to trade when your bench is filled with scrubs, except when it’s categorical, like trading an excess of saves for a starting pitcher. But that doesn’t happen often, so the alternative is to simply aim lower. Trading for a Chris Sale level pitcher is great and all, but it’s not the only way to improve your pitching staff. So here are four names who have all drastically underperformed their SIERA marks so far this year, which means they could likely turn you a profit in a trade if their fortunes turn.

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A month ago, I ridiculed Justin Verlander. He had just come off a start during which he allowed seven earned runs and couldn’t escape the fourth inning. Through his first six 2015 starts, he posted a 6.62 ERA with only 5.82 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9).

Like clockwork, he showed up to his next start in Boston and twirled a gem, throwing eight strong innings but failing to factor into the decision, as the game went into extra innings.

Then he went to Tampa Bay (well, St. Petersburg, but who’s keeping track) and cranked out another eight innings with a whopping 10 strikeouts. The last time he strung together two straight eight-inning starts was almost exactly three years ago — July 15 and 20, 2012. Last time he struck out 10-plus batters? His final start of 2013.

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There’s about a month to go, and maybe you need some Wins—usually the closest category—in your Fantasy league. Or perhaps your counting stats aren’t going anywhere, and your only chance to finish in the money is a sudden and decisive bump in ERA and WHIP. Or maybe, as was the case for us last year, your league has an innings maximum, your adversaries are nudging against it, you’re not, and you’ve got a chance to jump several points in Strikeouts, but you don’t want to torpedo your rate stats to do it. Or possibly you’re a DFS player, and you’re tired of putting Mike Zunino and Starlin Castro in your lineup because the only pitchers you can stand to use are the ones who cost too much and Zunino and Castro are all you can afford.

Yes, most of us need starting pitchers, and there are always plenty of them out there. The established good ones are, of course, happily wedded to their owners, none of whom is you. And the young and glamorous ones—Henry Owens, Aaron Nola, Manny Banuelos—command a Spitzeresque premium that you’re unwilling to pay. The rest of them are lined up, winking at you like the crew of a North Vegas brothel. Most of them are cheap, all right, but some have obviously been irreversibly damaged by life, and your problem with the rest of them is how to avoid infection. Read the rest of this entry »

The pickings feel slim with just one more week of August ahead of us, but fortunately, the fantasy dumpster is always crawling with something of use. Whether you’re looking to outfit your team with a couple of spare parts or just want to plug holes in the aftermath of a firesale, here are two players who can help your cause.

As usual, the players mentioned in this space are better suited for mono leagues, and the ownership percentages are by way of CBS.
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