It’s easy to advise fantasy owners to buy low and sell high, but unless you’re in a league filled with newbies, it’s much more difficult to actually put into practice. It’s far easier to execute a sell low or buy high trade, because we’re all trained to do the buy low, sell high thing. When you’ll selling low, your trade partner may very well think he’s buying low. But you know better. Or at least believe so.

Today, I’ll recommend three American League starting pitchers to sell low on. It’s not typically a strategy that I’m a fan of, especially early in the season when it’s still mostly small sample size zone. But there are certainly changes that can occur in various aspects of a pitcher’s underlying skill set that is driven by various forces that should alter our evaluations and projections moving forward. I think these three are examples of such happenings.

Read the rest of this entry »

For the Confetti among us—a more colorful term than “Streamers,” don’t you think?—Colorado starting pitchers are easy. You use them, if at all, when they’ve got good matchups on the road. For Rotisserians, it’s not so simple. Sure, if you’ve got a deep enough roster, your league has a liberal enough substitution policy, and the Rockies have a starter worth using under any circumstances, you can sit the guy when he’s in Coors and start him when he’s not. But that trifecta is hard to hit, and otherwise you’re asking for disaster.

Can there possibly be any exceptions to this? Maybe one: Chad Bettis. Everyone recognizes, in a general way, that he’s a pretty good pitcher. He’s owned in roughly 10% of Yahoo and ESPN leagues, which seems high for a Rockies starter. What may not be known is that he’s just about as good in Coors as he is on the road. On July 7, 2015, Bettis had one of the very worst outings by any starting pitcher during the past two seasons. He was in Coors, of course, and in 2 1/3 innings gave up 8 hits, including 4 home runs, 1 walk, and 10 earned runs. Why, having given up 8 runs in the first two innings, he was allowed to start the third inning and give up two more, we’re not sure. Read the rest of this entry »

My intrigue with Jimmy Nelson began over two years ago, when I first saw him pitch in Triple-A. Since then, the now-26-year-old has only gotten more interesting, as he’s made several significant adjustments in his quest to stick as a quality major-league starter. Back in May 2014, Nelson’s repertoire focused on the combination of his mid-90’s four-seam fastball and mid-80’s slider, with work-in-progress versions of a sinker and changeup. His delivery — especially his release point — was far from consistent, causing his command to be an irregular guest.

Of course, ironing out problems like this is what the term ‘player development’ is all about. In David Laurila’s interview with Nelson from last August, Nelson discusses smoothing out his delivery:

“It was a mechanical change. Instead of going over my head with my hands to start my delivery, now I just keep them in front and drop them down. That allows me to be more consistent and repeatable, and a lot more relaxed.”

Nelson’s repertoire and pitch usage saw even more adjustments over the last couple years than his mechanics. By the time he got the call to the majors in mid-July 2014, he was throwing more sinkers than four-seamers, a trend that continues to this day. Through his first 308 major-league innings, he’s throwing his sinker at a 40.4% rate, compared to 25.1% for the four-seamer.

Read the rest of this entry »

I already wrote about Aaron Nola this year. So, too, have Eno Sarris, August Fagerstrom and Jeff Sullivan. He’s been a big deal.

When I wrote about Nola — barely a month ago, at this point — he kind of took the backseat to rotation-mate Vincent Velasquez, who had recently struck out 16 hitters in a dominant complete game. However, since VV’s first two starts, during which he struck out a combined 25 hitters, he hasn’t struck out more than six hitters in a single game and has shown lapses in command.

Meanwhile, Nola has, somewhat quietly, turned in one of the season’s best first six weeks. He ranks third in pitcher WAR (wins above replacement) behind Clayton Kershaw and the underrated Jose Quintana. But WAR is partly a function of playing time, so this might be an unfair comparison for, say, Kyle Hendricks, who has started two fewer games than Nola.

Read the rest of this entry »

We’ve seen a paradigm shift in fantasy baseball the last couple of years as starting pitchers are being trusted more and more as early round, bankable assets. There has been a sharp change in offensive environment across the league as the “PED era” has given way to “Strikeout era” and fantasy managers don’t want to get caught without a premium ace or two, similar to how you needed at least a couple 30+ HR bats in the early-2000s to have any chance in the offensive categories.

This year is the most confident I’ve ever seen the market be in starting pitching as the top 20 were all drafted within the top 70 picks overall. Another six after that still made the top 100. Taking it a step further, 18 of those 20 were top 50 picks compared to just 10 pitchers elected as such in 2015. We are now a month and a half into the season and a whopping 60% of the top 20 starters are underwhelming against expectations. Some are lagging in a category and feel just a click off from dominating. Others are just flat out bad. Over the next couple of weeks, I’ll be investigating what’s going on with those in the top 20 who are underperforming. Today, let’s look at of the biggest laggards compared to expectations: Max Scherzer.

Read the rest of this entry »

In DFS, a common strategy to maximize the chances of placing highly in a large tournament is to enter several different lineups. In order to differentiate the lineups you enter and decrease risk, while still basing your lineups on sound data and analytics, you can utilize the concept of maximum player exposure.

The phrase “maximum player exposure” may sound complex, but it’s actually fairly simple. Once you select a maximum player exposure percentage on SaberSim, no player will appear in more than that percentage of the total lineups you generate. For example, if you were to create ten lineups and set the maximum player exposure at 50%, then Clayton Kershaw would appear in no more than five of those ten lineups. This allows for minimization of risk, as you’ll have a greater variety of players and a one bad performance won’t end your day right then and there.

Though it’s tempting to simplify the process of lineup creation by entering a single lineup into a higher-cost tournament, multi-lineup generation offers the ability to increase your odds of hitting just the right combination of players. At the same time, adjusting player exposure allows you to broaden your player pool, thus increasing the odds that you will cash a few lineups, and decreasing the risk of a big loss.

DFS Hitter Projections & Fun with Conditionals

Baltimore Orioles
There are three Orioles in the top ten projected offensive players for DraftKings tonight. Baltimore faces Mike Pelfrey in Camden Yards, and the team is projected to score 5.34 runs per game on average. The top three projected Orioles are Chris Davis, Manny Machado, and Adam Jones, with Davis as the top projected player across all games today. Mark Trumbo and Joey Rickard round out the top five.

Conditional Target: Mike Pelfrey
There are several different routes you could go when applying Conditionals to achieve an optimal Orioles stack. In the following example, I added a Conditional of Mike Pelfrey allowing at least five runs, and applied it to the optimized lineup. Notice that in addition to stacking an optimal combination of Orioles batters, the optimizer also included Ubaldo Jimenez in a pitcher slot, which is partly influenced by the Pelfrey >= 5 RA Conditional; when Pelfrey allows that many runs, Jimenez’s odds of earning a win drastically increase.

Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers are projected to score 4.45 runs per game in their home matchup against James Shields and the Padres. Miller Park is a hitter-friendly park, and especially increases home run production. Ryan Braun, Chris Carter, and Jonathan Villar all rank in the top ten, and Alex Presley ranks in the top twenty as far as projected DraftKings points for tonight’s games.
A Conditional of Jonathan Villar scoring at least two runs results in an optimal stack of Brewers hitters based on that conditional, and also ensures that James Shields is very unlikely to be included.

Notice that while Ubaldo Jimenez is also included in this optimal lineup, his projected point total is slightly less than it was in the optimal lineup when Pelfrey allowed at least five runs. That’s because the Conditional of Villar scoring at least two runs in his game against the Padres has no effect on the totally separate game of Tigers at Orioles.

DFS Pitcher Projections
The top three pitchers for tonight based on projected DraftKings points are Clayton Kershaw, Vincent Velasquez, and David Price. These projections are mostly in line with the pricing, but just outside the top three is Jimmy Nelson, who faces the San Diego Padres at home. There are a couple more potential value plays outside of the top five, with Ubaldo Jimenez coming in at number six and Aaron Blair at seven.

Streaming Pitcher Options for Friday

Ross Stripling (11% Y!)
Stripling faces Michael Wacha and the Cardinals at home in his Friday matchup. The Dodgers are projected as favorites in that game (55%), and Stripling is projected to have a solid outing (0.38 W/G, 4.71 K/G, 3.68 ERA).

Nicholas Tropeano (8% Y!)
Tropeano faces Nate Karns and the Mariners in Seattle. The Angels are projected as underdogs, but Tropeano is still projected well enough to warrant a stream (0.36 W/G, 4.63 K/G, 3.79 ERA).

Conclusion
There are countless ways in which you can create DFS strategies using SaberSim projections and lineup creation tools. In addition to Conditionals, there are also features that allow you to exclude players, adjust exposure, and much more. To keep you fully informed on all the possibilities, we will continue to explore more strategies in the coming days and weeks. Also, remember to check back for updated projections throughout the day. As teams release official lineups, SaberSim automatically updates accordingly and reruns simulations in order to stay as current as possible.

When I analyze a starting pitcher’s strikeout rate spike, I want to see that it’s driven by an increase in swings and misses induced. It could come from other avenues — a higher rate of strikes thrown or more called or foul strikes. But in my eyes, the most believable way to sustain that strikeout rate surge is by generating additional whiffs. So below are the seven American League starting pitchers that have increased their SwStk% marks the most compared to last season.

Read the rest of this entry »

I shop in the bargain bins when it comes to pitching, and I usually do okay. But there’s a pitfall to shopping in those bins, and it comes from velocity. Or lack thereof — the lightly touted, the guys with no pedigree, the guys you find in those bins, they usually don’t have big fastballs. Or they’d be the darling of every scout.

So what, you might say. If they have command and great secondary stuff, then they can ball. Look at Aaron Nola!

Yes, that’s true. But there are inherent difficulties with a bad fastball. So let’s rummage through the bad fastball bucket and see what we find.

Read the rest of this entry »

Three years ago, I introduced the best pitcher expected walk percentage formula yet. The formula uses a pair of strike type rates found at Baseball-Reference.com, including a pitcher’s in-play strike percentages, as well as his overall rate of strikes thrown. The beauty of the equation is that it uses components that stabilize quickly, as the rates are per pitch, rather than per inning or per batter. The equation isn’t nearly as strong as my xK% one, as it’s clearly missing sequencing, which may or may not be a consistent skill. But it’s pretty darn good and the best we have at the moment.

Read the rest of this entry »

Never before have we seen so many talented young pitchers. And, although I don’t have concrete evidence to support it, it feels like we have never seen so many name-brand starting pitchers struggle.

Everyone slumps. David Price, for example, is slumping. But with an atrocious strand rate (LOB%) and elevated batting average on balls in play (BABIP), it’s the type of slow start that savvy fantasy owners should target as a buy-low opportunity.

Other starters enduring equally slow starts can’t be defended quite as easily. Inversely, still more starters are masking their ugly peripherals with typical production, as expected. You may want to consider selling the names below. All three make me sad because, while not especially old, each of them has stared down his mortality at one point or another this season, as we normal folk do every day when we look in the mirror. All our demises are imminent, a truth made painfully true by the beautiful yet cruel sport we love so.

Read the rest of this entry »