It’s hard to really break up a 60-game season into pieces since the whole is a relatively small sample on its own. That said, Byron Buxton seemed to be getting off to his normal slow start with a .221/.225/.456 line through 21 games (a small sample, but 35% of this year’s season) and that was only buoyed by a 3-game homer streak in games 9 through 11 (.401 OPS before that). Again, that is a relatively small number of plate appearances (71), but it was fitting Buxton’s pattern so I know I had some confirmation bias around that time like “here we go again!”.

He then suffered a left shoulder injury (inflammation) that sent him to the IL for the fourth straight season and it was the same shoulder that he hurt in 2019 so the “here we go again” vibes kicked into overdrive at that point. After missing 11 games, he returned on September 1st and he’s been on fire since then with a .340/.353/.800 line with 7 HR, 13 RBI, and 8 R in 51 PA including hits in 12 of his 13 starts (there are two defensive replacement appearances in which he has 1 PA and went 0-for-1). The power surge is the most impressive part of the run with nine of his 17 hits going for extra bases highlighted the seven dingers.

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…going 15th or later at their position (30th for OF, 40th for SP, and 20th for RP).

It felt like that’d all be too long for a headline. Anyway, this is a very straightforward concept that I thought of while on my way to getting breakfast tacos! I’m using the Too Early Mocks as my guide here so let’s go position-by-position and find some potential Top 5s!

STARTING PITCHER: Frankie Montas (48th)

I’ve already expressed some love for Montas this offseason so why not go to the next level here? His trajectory has really impressed me. He started as a flamethrower who could miss bats but do little else. Then in 2018 he stopped walking guys, but his Ks tanked… which of course seemed related. This year he put it all together with a 26% K rate, 6% BB rate, and he maintained his excellent HR suppression (0.75 HR/9). His season was cut short by a PED suspension, but he finished on the mound with an excellent six-inning outing on September 25th. Sign me up!

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As we slog through the dog days and try to ignore the siren call of fantasy baseball, you might be locked in the bubble of your fantasy team(s) and missing some interesting performances going on lately. Have you noticed that…

• Kyle Seager is on fire, hitting 357/.419/.786 with 10 HR, 21 RBI, and 18 R since July 22nd.

Seager’s down 2018 carried over into 2019 when he started the season on the IL and then hit just .186/.260/.331 through 46 games before this recent run. His bottom line (108 wRC+) now looks a lot like the steady Eddie he was before last year and while he likely won’t remain this hot, he should continue to be a useful 3B or CI option.

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Have you guys heard of Adalberto Mondesi? No one’s been talking about him the last few months, so I figured it was my duty to discuss him. He’s obviously been surging up early draft boards after a remarkable close to the season. He went 73rd on average in the #2EarlyMocks and then Top 50 in both my AFL draft the PitchersList Mock.

It’s not hard to see why everyone is excited. The 23-year old former prospect had 14 HR and 32 SB in just 75 games and no matter how many times we suggest not taking brilliant numbers like that and extrapolating, we all do it. Even if it’s just to get drunk on the insane numbers for a little bit. Just for the record, his 162-game pace was 31 HR and 70 SB… annnddd now I’m wasted.

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I don’t really know. Thanks for reading!

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Rain is stupid. OK, not all the time, but it was remarkably stupid last night as it shortened the debut of Chicago White Sox uber-pitching prospect Michael Kopech. The 22-year old flamethrower didn’t return after a rain delay just before the third inning started, but we did get to see 52 pitches as he labored a bit through his two innings. He allowed three hits, but stranded all of them and didn’t walk anybody while tallying four strikeouts.

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Brad Keller is a 22-year old rookie for the Kansas City Royals, who they acquired from the Cincinnati Reds after they Rule 5 drafted him off Arizona last winter. He’s in the majors after a Double-A season that saw him post a 4.68 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, and 9% K-BB rate over 131 innings. He made the Hard-Throwing Relievers section of Eric Longenhagen’s KC prospects list. He spent the first two months of the season in that role, leaning on a 95 mph sinker to post a 2.01 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 22 innings, but just a 7% K-BB rate.

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Matt Boyd was terrible last year. In fact, let’s just be really honest and acknowledge that he was pretty bad through the first 290 innings of his career with a 5.47 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, and 11% K-BB rate. His best effort through three seasons was a 4.53 ERA and 1.30 WHIP back in 2016. While never a Top 100 guy, Boyd was a prospect of some acclaim and expectations had him becoming a capable backend starter.

He’s starting to meet those expectations with a 3.23 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 75 innings so far this season. His success has perplexed analysts and fantasy players alike as no one can seem to make sense of how he’s throwing the best baseball of his career despite virtually no change to his base skills. I decided to dive in and see what’s going on.

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Watch the early innings of a Michael Fulmer start and you’ll see a damn fine 25-year old power arm evolving into one of the game’s quality workhorses. Keep watching, though, and you’ll find him unrecognizable by the sixth inning. Fulmer has consistently melted down in the latter innings of his starts, yielding a ghastly 4.73 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 66.7 innings. Fulmer actually posted a 2.76 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in April with a lot of the damage coming in his lone blowup outing at Cleveland (3 IP, 9 R… 6 of them earned), but has allowed fewer than three runs just twice in his last seven. The sixth inning has become a clear point of demarcation between Good Fulmer and Bad Fulmer.

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Zack Godley enjoyed a surprise breakout season last year that the market bought into, making him a consistent top 35 starter in draft season. Once news of the humidor was finalized, he became even more appealing as we figured he’d be pitching half his games in an even better environment. After a thrashing at the hands of the Brewers on Wednesday (3.3 IP/6 ER), he’s up to 4.53 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 55.7 innings. Let’s take a look at the 28-year old righty through 10 starts and see what’s going on.

Usually we look immediately at velocity when a pitcher is struggling so let’s start there. It can be indicative of an injury, but even if it’s not signaling a health issue, it’s obviously better to have higher velocity in most cases. Godley’s is down across the board. His fastball velocity has dipped from 91.9 mph to 90.2 this year. There are also dips on all of his secondary pitches: -1.7 mph to 81.7 with the curveball, -1.1 to 88.8 with the cutter, and -2.6 to 81.4 with the change (though he barely used it last year and is using it even less this year at 5%).

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