Not a bad board for Wednesday’s full slate. Plenty of options across the various formats. I’m sure some of the 2- and 1-x guys will pop off, but identifying exactly who is tough. Bradford, for example, could deal but I’m not dying to take the shot at ARI.
Very few bankable options on this week’s 2-start board making it a scary venture as we come down the stretch.
If you have questions about anyone else, leave me a comment!
| RANK | TYPE | PITCHER | MATCHUPS | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | Pitch+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | George Kirby | SDP/TEX | 167 | 3.61 | 1.11 | 20% | 106 |
| 2 | 2 | Carlos Rodón | KCR/BOS | 152.1 | 4.19 | 1.22 | 19% | 97 |
| 3 | 2 | MacKenzie Gore | ATL/MIA | 143.2 | 4.32 | 1.50 | 15% | 98 |
| 4 | 2 | Cristopher Sánchez | TBR/NYM | 159 | 3.45 | 1.26 | 14% | 102 |
| 5 | 2 | David Festa | LAA/CIN | 47.1 | 4.75 | 1.20 | 23% | 101 |
| 6 | 2 | Alex Cobb | at CHW/TBR | 16.1 | 2.76 | 1.04 | 11% | 105 |
| 7 | 3 | Brady Singer | at NYY/at PIT | 158.1 | 3.35 | 1.24 | 16% | 100 |
| 8 | 3 | Nick Martinez | at ATL/at MIN | 115.1 | 3.67 | 1.15 | 16% | 109 |
| 9 | 3 | Rhett Lowder | at STL/at MIN | 10.1 | 0.87 | 1.35 | 2% | 98 |
| 10 | 3 | Cade Povich | at BOS/at DET | 59.1 | 5.76 | 1.60 | 8% | 98 |
| 11 | 3 | Osvaldo Bido | at HOU/at CHW | 63.1 | 3.41 | 1.09 | 14% | 97 |
| 12 | 3 | Kutter Crawford | BAL/at NYY | 161 | 4.08 | 1.07 | 16% | 105 |
| 13 | 3 | Brayan Bello | BAL/at NYY | 142 | 4.75 | 1.38 | 13% | 100 |
| 14 | 4 | Charlie Morton | CIN/LAD | 142.1 | 4.24 | 1.32 | 15% | 98 |
| 15 | 4 | Valente Bellozo | at PIT/at WSN | 47.2 | 3.78 | 1.28 | 8% | 97 |
| 16 | 4 | Aaron Civale | at SFG/at ARI | 140.1 | 4.62 | 1.34 | 15% | 100 |
| 17 | 4 | Taj Bradley | at PHI/at CLE | 116.2 | 4.40 | 1.21 | 19% | 98 |
| 18 | 5 | Keider Montero | COL/BAL | 74 | 5.47 | 1.39 | 11% | 100 |
| 19 | 5 | Adam Oller | at PIT/at WSN | 21.2 | 4.15 | 1.25 | 10% | 94 |
| 20 | 5 | Hayden Birdsong | MIL/SDP | 52 | 5.19 | 1.50 | 12% | 91 |
| 21 | 6 | Kyle Hendricks | at LAD/at COL | 107.2 | 6.60 | 1.51 | 9% | 105 |
| 22 | 6 | Bradley Blalock | at DET/CHC | 26.2 | 5.40 | 1.69 | 1% | 94 |
| 23 | 7 | Nick Nastrini | CLE/OAK | 32.1 | 7.79 | 1.95 | -5% | 84 |
I’m putting this together pretty early on Sunday because I’m watching my niece and won’t be on the computer as much for Sunday afternoon/evening. If something does change, don’t hesitate to let me know if the comments and I’ll give my thoughts on the new guy. It’s a brutal board to start the week after Skenes so be very careful out there!
Solid board for Friday with plenty of opportunities at every level. As always, there is risk which is heightened in September as we have less time to undo a dud, but we can’t just sit on our hands being afraid of a dud if we are chasing points in the standings. Speaking of risk, I just don’t see myself starting Luis Gil anywhere right now. He’s fresh off the IL and hasn’t been pitching that well for some time. I’m very thankful for what he gave us this season and I’ll happily revisit in 2025, but I’m OK cutting him for the remainder of 2024.
Let me know if you have questions about anyone else.
Drop a comment if you have a question about any of the pitchers. It’s a relatively straightforward board with a good number of 3-x’s and then some Hail Mary 1-x’s.
An earlier version accidentally had Suárez facing TOR with just a 2-x reco. With his proper matchup at MIA loaded in, I moved him to the 3-x group.
Some really scary spots in the streamer pool for Wednesday’s slate. Be careful out there!
—
Read the rest of this entry »
I ended up using the holiday as a chance to go to sleep early hence no SP chart last night, but I can’t leave y’all hanging for Tuesday!
Brady Singer has been more good than bad of late w/a 3.69 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 18% K-BB since July 1st though that elevated WHIP hints at how the bad starts during the run have been particularly bad. During the 11 starts, he has 7 starts w/an average of 65 Game Score (which is really good), but the other 4 are at a 33 average. So there’s a big range here which does make him a little scary down the stretch, but I still have a hard time finding too many sits.
SEA is a great Rx for any starter in need of gem so Jeffrey Springs’s 5 IP of 1-hit ball with 9 Ks was a welcomed sight and he now has 5 IP in 4 of his L5.
The results for Kutter Crawford are better of late — 3.71 ERA, 0.94 WHIP — but the meager 7% K-BB tells me the .200 BABIP is doing a looottt of the heavy lifting there. There’s upside, there’s decent W potential, but there’s definitely real downside so be careful!
Cade Povich’s insane schedule (NYY 2x, HOU, LAD, CLE, BOS, ATL) explains some of the lagging #s so he deserves this outing v. CHW.
I don’t even really trust Walker Buehler that much v. LAA… he just doesn’t look right and I’m not sure an easy matchup will necessarily help that.
David Peterson threw another gem, this time at ARI, giving him a 1.86 ERA/1.13 WHIP combo in 6 August starts (38.7 IP) and it wasn’t like he just smoked bad teams with 3 great teams, a brutally tough venue in Coors, and an upstart offense with OAK accounting for 5 of the 6: at LAA, at COL, OAK, BAL, SDP, at ARI.
Kyle Harrison is a pure lottery ticket play, especially as well as Arizona is playing in the second half.
I still love Reid Detmers, but can’t start him here v. LAD; if he’s good, I can see the at MIN being usable next wk.
We have a star-studded board to open up September so we could see some strong pitching scores this week. There is definitely some risk in the streaming tiers, but that’s always the case. It just feels more severe because we have so little time left in the season (last gm is Sept. 29th) so every dud feels more impactful. Trust your decisions, realize that they won’t all work, and don’t let a bad start make you reluctant to keep streaming if that’s your best path to scaling the standings.
If you have questions about anyone else, leave me a comment!
I’ll actually post the 2-start chart this week! Look for it early Monday morning.
—
Read the rest of this entry »