Starting Pitcher Chart – June 29th
by Paul Sporer
June 29, 2023
Daily SP Chart archive
The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
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Thursday, June 29th Starter Notes
| RK | PITCHER | TM | OPP | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | wOBA RK | NOTE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joe Musgrove | SDP | at | PIT | x | x | x | 60.1 | 3.88 | 1.26 | 16% | 27th | Fewer than 6 IP just 1x in his L6 with 8 total ER across the 36.3 IP |
| 2 | Max Scherzer | NYM | MIL | x | x | x | 70.2 | 3.95 | 1.17 | 21% | 30th | B2B gems after those 2 duds at ATL and v. NYY have hopefully assuaged concerns w/him | |
| 3 | Shane Bieber | CLE | at | KCR | x | x | x | 100 | 3.69 | 1.23 | 12% | 22nd | 4 HR in his L2 have fueled 9 ER; has allowed 3 or fewer ER in 12 of 15 starts, but 21 ER in the other 4 highlights the risk |
| 4 | Jesús Luzardo | MIA | at | BOS | x | x | x | 90.2 | 3.77 | 1.19 | 22% | 3rd | Not an easy matchup, but I don’t find myself sitting him in any format |
| 5 | Clarke Schmidt | NYY | at | OAK | x | x | x | 77 | 4.32 | 1.42 | 16% | 23rd | Has essentially been 5-and-dive in his L7 though it’s hard to argue w/the 2.19 ERA in that time |
| 6 | Brayan Bello | BOS | MIA | x | x | 66 | 3.27 | 1.27 | 14% | 11th | Nice 11-start run since the 5 ER Marathon Day game: 2.70 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 14% K-BB | ||
| 7 | J.P. France | HOU | at | STL | x | x | 53.1 | 3.54 | 1.26 | 11% | 13th | Putting up some nice results despite modest core skills, I particularly like that he has 6+ IP in each of his L5 | |
| 8 | Chris Bassitt | TOR | SFG | x | x | 93.2 | 4.32 | 1.21 | 12% | 6th | ERA is up over a run after 3 straight duds: velo is fine, but he’s using the fastball less & it’s getting smashed | ||
| 9 | Lance Lynn | CHW | at | LAA | x | x | 90 | 6.40 | 1.49 | 19% | 2nd | 23/3 K/BB in his L2 starts and an out shy of B2B quality starts, but there’s still heavy risk in LAA | |
| 10 | Taijuan Walker | PHI | at | CHC | x | x | 83.1 | 4.10 | 1.24 | 11% | 25th | Reigned in HR rate (4 in L10 after 7 in F6) has sparked a major run (2.63 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) despite modest skills (13% K-BB) | |
| 11 | Patrick Sandoval | LAA | CHW | x | 75.2 | 4.16 | 1.47 | 8% | 24th | Good matchup, but can you afford the gamble of that insane WHIP? Be careful | |||
| 12 | Kyle Hendricks | CHC | PHI | x | 34.2 | 2.60 | 0.98 | 7% | 15th | His already-light K rate has evaporated (13%) but the results since his debut are fantastic: 2.08 ERA, 0.86 WHIP… a 5% K-BB looms, though | |||
| 13 | Brandon Pfaadt | ARI | TBR | x | 23.2 | 8.37 | 1.65 | 9% | 10th | Looks great in AAA w/a 3.18 ERA, 0.62 WHIP, 22% K-BB so I’m definitely picking him back up, but not necessarily starting v. TBR | |||
| 14 | Luis L. Ortiz | PIT | SDP | x | 45.2 | 3.74 | 1.62 | 4% | 9th | Coming off his best start of the yr, but a 1.56 June WHIP undercuts the 3.24 ERA | |||
| 15 | Hogan Harris | OAK | NYY | x | 33 | 4.91 | 1.12 | 10% | 25th | Was rolling before the TOR dud, I still like him in deeper formats bc the low W probability makes OAK guys a tough start in many spots | |||
| 16 | Adrian Houser | MIL | at | NYM | x | 40.1 | 4.02 | 1.54 | 7% | 21st | 3 gems, but they’ve come v. TBR-HOU-CIN while 2 of the 4 duds have come v. KCR-OAK so he’s really tough to time | ||
| 17 | Cody Bradford | TEX | DET | 14.1 | 5.65 | 1.26 | 12% | 18th | Essentially threw a bullpen on Monday so I’m surprised he’s going today, but that’s what I’m seeing everywhere | ||||
| 18 | Reese Olson | DET | at | TEX | 24.2 | 4.74 | 1.05 | 22% | 5th | Has been really good outside the ATL start (6 ER) w/7 ER in his 4 other starts combined, but this matchup is super scary | |||
| 19 | Yonny Chirinos | TBR | at | ARI | 48.1 | 3.91 | 1.14 | 4% | 3rd | That paltry K-BB finally caught up to him w/an 8 ER bomb v. KCR… can’t trust him v. ARI | |||
| 20 | Zack Greinke | KCR | CLE | 81.1 | 5.31 | 1.23 | 15% | 8th | Great work in May (2.30 ERA) erased by a June Swoon (9.00) and highlights why I rarely want to take the risk of starting him | ||||
| 21 | Emmet Sheehan | LAD | at | COL | 12 | 1.50 | 0.58 | 7% | 16th | The rookie has a sparkling ERA in his 2 starts, but that paltry 7% K-BB could drive some quick regression in Coors… hold but don’t start | |||
| 22 | Adam Wainwright | STL | HOU | 46.2 | 6.56 | 1.82 | 5% | 17th | Can’t find a start for him in any format right now | ||||
| 23 | Chase Anderson | COL | LAD | 42 | 5.79 | 1.45 | 8% | 18th | Absolutely not | ||||
| 24 | TBD | SFG | at | TOR | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 12th | Stripling is listed at most outlets but he threw 3 IP on Wednesday |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
